Showing papers by "Central Economics and Mathematics Institute published in 2018"
TL;DR: In this paper, the authors presented a study on the potential of Russian to become the world's most populous country by 2025, with 13% of the population living in Russia living in poverty.
Abstract: Russian Abstract: Установлено, что те неиспользуемые сельскохозяйственные земли, которые находятся в собственности у сельскохозяйственных производителей, но ныне не используются по экономическим причинам, являются фактором конкурентного преимущества аграрной экономики России и могут быть задействованы при благоприятной экономической конъюнктуре. Общий объём вовлечения неиспользуемых сельскохозяйственных угодий под посевы оценивается примерно в 5% их общей площади ближайшие годы и до 13% к 2025 г.
Метод оценки потенциала выбран на основе изучения теоретических основ землепользования и практического опыта в зарубежных странах: США, ЕС и Китае. С помощью экономико-математической модели выявлен потенциальный прирост производства от частичного вовлечения заброшенных земель. Дана характеристика институциональным и экономическим ограничениям развития производства и вовлечения заброшенных земель в России с учетом региональной специфики.
English Abstract: It is established that those unused agricultural lands that are owned by agricultural producers but are not currently used for economic reasons are a factor of the competitive advantage of Russia's agrarian economy and can be used under favorable economic conditions. The total volume of unused agricultural land involvement for crops is estimated at about 5% of their total area in the coming years and up to 13% by 2025.
The method of assessing the potential is selected on the basis of studying the theoretical bases of land use and practical experience in foreign countries: the USA, the EU and China. With the help of the economic-mathematical model, It was identified a potential increase in production from partial involvement of abandoned lands. It was given the characteristics of institutional and economic constraints to the development of production and the involvement of abandoned land in Russia, taking into account regional specifics.
11 citations
TL;DR: In this article, the problem of finding the upper function for the squared norm of the solution of a linear stochastic differential equation with a non-constant stability rate was solved and the determined upper function generalizes the previously known logarithmic estimate and is expressed in closed form in terms of the rate of matrix stability.
Abstract: The problem of finding the upper function for the squared norm of the solution of a linear stochastic differential equation with a nonexponentially stable matrix is solved. A novel characteristic of a nonconstant stability rate of the matrix is introduced. The determined upper function generalizes the previously known logarithmic estimate and is expressed in closed form in terms of the rate of matrix stability. Examples of determining the upper function for different stability rates are provided.
7 citations
TL;DR: In this article, it is shown that in modern society the system approach to the structuring of socio-economic space is more relevant than the class one, and that the classical notion of property does not reflect the diversity of production and economic relations in society.
Abstract: The development of the system paradigm in economic science leads to the formulation of a number of important questions to the political economy as one of the basic directions of economic theory. In this article, on the basis of system introspection, three questions are considered. The first is the relevance of the class approach to the structuring of the socio-economic space; the second is the feasibility of revising the notion of property in the modern world; the third is the validity of the notion of changing formations as the sequence of “slave-owning system — feudal system — capitalist system”. It is shown that in modern society the system approach to the structuring of socio-economic space is more relevant than the class one. Today the classical notion of “property” does not reflect the diversity of production and economic relations in society and should be replaced by the notion of “system property”, which provides a significant expansion of the concepts of “subject of property” and “object of property”. The change of social formations along with the linear component has a more influential cyclic constituent and obeys the system-wide cyclic regularity that reflects the four-cycle sequence of the dominance of one of the subsystems of the macrosystem: project, object, environment and process.
6 citations
01 Jan 2018
TL;DR: This chapter proposes a new version of the fibonacci counter that relies only on the minimal representation form of Fibonacci numerals and thus leads to the counter’s faster calculation speed and a higher level of the noise-resistance.
Abstract: One of the most important challenges when creating efficient systems of technical vision is the development of efficient methods for enhancing the speed and noise-resistance properties of the digital devices involved in the system. The devices composed of counters and decoders occupy a special niche among the system’s digital tools. One of the most common ways of creating noise-proof devices is providing special coding tricks dealing with their informational redundancy. Various frameworks make that possible, but nowadays, an acute interest is attracted to noise-proof numeral systems, among which the Fibonacci system is the most famous. The latter helps generate the so-called Fibonacci codes, which can be effectively applied to the computer vision systems; in particular when developing counting devices based on Fibonacci counters, as well as the corresponding decoders. However, the Fibonacci counters usually pass from the minimal form of representation of Fibonacci numbers to their maximal form by recurring to the special operations catamorphisms and anamorphisms (or “folds” and “unfolds”). The latter makes the counters quite complicated and time-consuming. In this chapter, we propose a new version of the Fibonacci counter that relies only on the minimal representation form of Fibonacci numerals and thus leads to the counter’s faster calculation speed and a higher level of the noise-resistance. Based on the above-mentioned features, we also present the appropriate fast algorithm implementing the noise-proof computation and the corresponding fractal decoder. The first part of the chapter provides the estimates of the new method’s noise-immunity, as well as that of its components. The second problem studied in the chapter concerns the efficiency of the existing algorithm of Fibonacci representation in the minimal form. Based on this examination, we propose a modernization of the existing algorithm aiming at increasing its calculation speed. The third object of the chapter is the comparative analysis of the Fibonacci decoders and the development of the fractal decoder of the latter.
5 citations
TL;DR: In this article, an essentially nonlinear equation containing the product of the p-Laplacian and a nonsymmetric difference operator is considered, and sufficient conditions guaranteeing the coercivity and pseudomonotonicity of the corresponding nonlinear difference-differential operator are obtained.
Abstract: An essentially nonlinear equation containing the product of the p-Laplacian and a nonsymmetric difference operator is considered. Sufficient conditions guaranteeing the coercivity and pseudomonotonicity of the corresponding nonlinear difference-differential operator are obtained. The existence of a generalized solution of the Dirichlet problem for the nonlinear equation under consideration is proved.
4 citations
01 Jan 2018
TL;DR: In this paper, the properties of consistent conjectural variations equilibrium (CCVE) developed for a single-commodity oligopoly were investigated, and the consistent conjectures of the original oligopoly game provided for the Cournot-Nash optimal strategies for the meta game.
Abstract: In this paper, we investigate the properties of consistent conjectural variations equilibrium (CCVE) developed for a single-commodity oligopoly. Although, in general, the consistent conjectures are distinct from those of Cournot-Nash, we establish the following remarkable fact. Define a meta-game as such where the players are the same agents as in the original oligopoly but now using the conjectures as their strategies. Then the consistent conjectures of the original oligopoly game provide for the Cournot-Nash optimal strategies for the meta-game.
4 citations
TL;DR: A roundtable discussion was held in the framework of the XIX April international academic conference of the National Research University Higher School of Economics (Moscow, April 10-13, 2018) where these and related issues were discussed.
Abstract: The selection of the trajectories of professional development by economic researches and economic analysts today is largely determined by formal criteria for assessing the results of their activity on the part of financing organizations. As has been shown in a number of works, such a formalized assessment may distort the incentives for studying the surrounding reality and adversely affect the formation of the professional community. In this connection, at the initiative of the Association of Russian Economic Think Tanks (ARETT), a roundtable discussion was held in the framework of the XIX April international academic conference of the National Research University Higher School of Economics (Moscow, April 10—13, 2018) where these and related issues were discussed. The discussion was moderated by ARETT president A. A. Yakovlev.
4 citations
01 Jan 2018
TL;DR: In this article, a general optimization problem with equality and inequality constraints in a Banach space, the latter being given by closed convex cones with nonempty interiors, is studied.
Abstract: The paper deals with a general optimization problem with equality and inequality constraints in a Banach space, the latter being given by closed convex cones with nonempty interiors. A necessary optimality condition in the form of Lagrange multipliers rule is presented.
4 citations
TL;DR: In this paper, the authors describe a technology of building multiagent simulations, making it possible to scale effectively models of this class up to 109 agents and to apply it when creating a large-scale agent model for Eurasian countries.
Abstract: This article continues the work described in Vestnik RAN (no. 3, 2016) and in Herald of the RAS (no. 3, 2016). The previous articles analyzed the international experience in preparing and using agent-oriented models and technical groundwork for their implementation on supercomputers and described in detail the stages and methods of the efficient reflection of the computing core of a multiagent system on the architecture of a state-of-the-art supercomputer using the Supercomputer Technology for Agent-oRiented Simulation (STARS), developed by the authors. STARS was tested on two multiagent demographic models, built at the RAS Central Economics and Mathematics Institute, which differed in the level of detailization when simulating human reproductive behavior. This publication describes a technology of building multiagent simulations, making it possible to scale effectively models of this class up to 109 agents and to apply it when creating a large-scale agent model for Eurasian countries. The objective of the model is to simulate the key migration processes and economic dynamics of these countries, as well as the aftermath of the implementation of large infrastructure projects because of the activity of multiple independent agents. The model was tested on various supercomputers, allowing conclusions on their technical characteristics.
4 citations
TL;DR: In this paper, the classical problem of level crossing by a compound renewal process is considered and a new approximation is proposed, which is valid under minimal conditions and is obtained by applying a new method.
Abstract: The classical problem of level crossing by a compound renewal process is considered, which has been extensively studied and has various applications. For the distribution of the first level crossing time, a new approximation is proposed, which is valid under minimal conditions and is obtained by applying a new method. It has a number of advantages over previously known approximations.
4 citations
TL;DR: In this paper, the authors considered a class of optimal control problems with a scalar state constraint and investigated trajectory with a smooth contact with a single boundary subarc, and obtained the full set of stationarity conditions in the Dubovitskii-Milyutin form.
Abstract: We consider a class of optimal control problems with a scalar state constraint and investigate trajectory with a smooth contact with a single boundary subarc. For trajectory of this special type, we first obtain, using a special technique (two-stage variation approach), stationarity conditions without non-negativity, and then obtain the full set of stationarity conditions in the Dubovitskii-Milyutin form, including the nonnegativity of the measure density and its atoms at the junction points.
31 Oct 2018
TL;DR: The main factors that affect quantitative and qualitative characteristics of regional human resource, including educational system, demographic and migration processes, are identified, and a concept of the Program for its development is presented.
Abstract: In this paper we suggest a concept of information support system for human resource management at a regional level. We identify the main factors that affect quantitative and qualitative characteristics of regional human resource, including educational system, demographic and migration processes, and present a concept of the Program for its development. As a tool for information support of the Program we propose a distributed information system with interfaces for various groups of users: regional administration, population and organizations. To assess the effectiveness of the activities of the Program we suggest a decision support system based on the agent model of regional human resource dynamics. The model reflects demographical situation in the region, migration flows, educational system, economy and social environment in the region and functions of the regional administration.
TL;DR: In this article, the authors compare changes in the geographical structure of trade of both former Soviet republics (Central Asian countries and Azerbaijan) and Turkey, with the predictions of the gravity model, which suggests that trade between two countries is proportionate to their respective GDPs and is inversely related to the geographical distance between them.
Abstract: In the 1980s, six former southern republics of the USSR (Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, and Uzbekistan), like other former Soviet republics, traded very intensively both between themselves and with the other Soviet republics, but had a meagre volume of trade with the rest of the world. After the transition to the market, the deregulation of foreign trade, and the collapse of the USSR in the 1990s, trade between the former Soviet republics shrank dramatically and was only partially replaced by trade with other countries, mostly from Western Europe. In the 2000s and 2010s, the relative importance of trade with Western Europe has declined and the share of trade with China and other Asian countries has grown.
This paper compares changes in the geographical structure of trade of both former Soviet republics (Central Asian countries and Azerbaijan) and Turkey, with the predictions of the gravity model. The gravity model suggests that trade between two countries is proportionate to their respective GDPs and is inversely related to the geographical distance between them.2 Turkey serves as a yardstick for comparison. For Turkey, changes in its geographical trade structure resulted from a rise in the proportion of trade with Asian countries and a decline in the proportion of trade with other regions in the world economy. In contrast, for the former Soviet republics there was an additional reason for changes in their geographical trade structure: the collapse of trade within the former USSR.
01 Oct 2018
TL;DR: In this paper, the authors deal with the implementation of numerical methods for searching for traveling waves for Korteweg-de Vries-type equations with time delay, based upon the group approach.
Abstract: This paper deals with the implementation of numerical methods for searching for traveling waves for Korteweg-de Vries-type equations with time delay. Based upon the group approach, the existence of traveling wave solution and its boundedness are shown for some values of parameters. Meanwhile, solutions constructed with the help of the proposed constructive method essentially extend the class of systems, possessing solutions of this type, guaranteed by theory. The proposed method for finding solutions is based on solving a multiparameter extremal problem. Several numerical solutions are demonstrated.
TL;DR: In this paper, making use of the triangulation technique, some antipodal and fixed-point theorems are extended to the case of nonconvex, more exactly, star-shaped sets and similar extensions are made for set-valued mappings defined over star- shaped sets.
Abstract: Since 1909 when Brouwer proved the first fixed-point theorem named after him, the fixed-point results in various settings play an important role in the optimization theory and applications. This technique has proven to be indispensable for the proofs of multiple results related to the existence of solutions to numerous problems in the areas of optimization and approximation theory, differential equations, variational inequalities, complementary problems, equilibrium theory, game theory, mathematical economics, etc. It is also worthwhile to mention that the majority of problems of finding solutions (zero-points) of functions (operators) can be easily reduced to that of discovering of fixed points of properly modified mappings. Not only theoretical but also practical (algorithmic) developments are based on the fixed-point theory. For instance, the well-known simplicial (triangulation) algorithms help one to find the desired fixed points in a constructive way. That approach allows one to investigate the solvability of complicated problems arising in theory and applications. In this paper, making use of the triangulation technique, we extend some antipodal and fixed-point theorems to the case of nonconvex, more exactly, star-shaped sets. Also, similar extensions are made for set-valued mappings defined over star-shaped sets.
TL;DR: A generalized model for software functionality evaluation is proposed and a functionality evaluation model for machine translation systems that was developed based on it and can be a prototype for more detailed models is given.
Abstract: The principal concepts, models and methods for software quality evaluation are presented. Since the definitions of functionality in the existing standards for software quality evaluation are inconsistent, this concept here is defined as a particular case of the concept of quality in qualimetry as applied to software quality evaluation. A generalized model for software functionality evaluation is proposed. A functionality evaluation model for machine translation systems that was developed based on it and can be a prototype for more detailed models is given. Some ways to use such models to evaluate the functionality of machine translation systems numerically are considered.
TL;DR: The extent of misperceptions of political events and developments is assumed to be largely determined by the rate of press freedom characterizing each country (Reporters sans frontiers, RSF, 2018) as mentioned in this paper.
Abstract: The extent of misperceptions of political events and developments is assumed to be largely determined by the rate of press freedom characterizing each country (Reporters sans frontiers, RSF, 2018). Following that argument, only about one third of all countries worldwide would turn out to be in a good (Scandinavia, Germany) or satisfactory (the US, the UK, Canada and Australia) situation (see Appendix). Recent research on misperceptions suggests that the freedom of press may be a necessary but not necessarily a sufficient condition of measurement. More decisive than freedom of press are two further factors, namely deep-rooted ideological inclinations and worldviews as formed during primary (family) and subsequent (school) phases of socialization on the one hand, and the structure of media ownership on the other hand. In what follows, we present some recent evidence on how the ownership of the media (state/public/private) is influencing misperceptions. It is argued that state and private media distort public opinion more than the media under public control.
TL;DR: In this article, the authors presented a short-term macroeconomic indicator, the index of monetary efficiency, which is an aggregate of two subindices, i.e., monetary stability and monetary freedom.
Abstract: This article has presented a short-term macroeconomic indicator, the index of monetary efficiency, which is an aggregate of two subindices, i.e., monetary stability and monetary freedom. An econometric model has been constructed, in which the GDP depends on the index of monetary efficiency with a lag of 8 months, which allows for the proactive prediction of economic growth. All analytical tools have been evaluated based on the statistical data of the Bank of Russia with a monthly breakdown.
30 Jun 2018
TL;DR: A scientometric analysis of the development of the carbon nanotechnology (NT) direction for 2000-2015 with the participation of 30 most active countries shows shifting the world research center to the Asian region, both on volume and quality indicators.
Abstract: The article presents a scientometric analysis of the development of the carbon nanotechnology (NT) direction for 2000-2015 with the participation of 30 most active countries. It shows shifting the world research center to the Asian region, both on volume and quality indicators. Using the concept of a national research portfolio gives deep characteristics of different countries behavior in the course of scientific rivalry. Due to the strong skewness of the citation distributions, preference is given to the percentile-based indicators, such as: the contribution of a country to the world top-10% (top-1%) of the most highly cited publications, the share of such publications in the country's total output, the highly cited papers index, etc. Relying on them, the author fully discloses the scientific «offensive» of the «newcomer» countries on the «incumbents» ones (e.g. China on the USA, South Korea on Germany, Iran on Russia), the phenomenon of Singapore as an effective producer of highly cited publications on the carbon nanostructures, and international co-authorship in the top-1% segment of the most cited articles. Russia's positions are studied in detail, the main domestic research participants are established, and based on bibliometric criteria the center of scientific excellence in the field of graphene is identified. The paper characterizes the supporting role of a number of national science foundations in the NT carbon direction development using data of WoS. The author used the Science Citation Index Expanded database for the initial bibliographic sampling; information of science foundations of Russia and the USA, as well as patent organizations of Russia (Rospatent) and the world (WIPO) for additional comparison.
TL;DR: The effectiveness of the hybrid MPI+OpenMP parallel code for parameter optimization is demonstrated in the example of a global multi-sector energy economics model with scenarios that are used for studying climate change impacts on land use.
01 Sep 2018
TL;DR: New paradigms of decision-making are described, which imply the decision- making problems under uncertainty, which are the problems with uncertainty, when there is no information on probabilities, and the decisions are being accepted on the basis of subjective judgments of decide-maker.
Abstract: The paper describes new paradigms of decision-making. Now the most urgent decision-making problems are the problems with uncertainty, which take place, when there is no information on probabilities, and the decisions are being accepted on the basis of subjective judgments of decision-maker. In spite of the fantastic computer progress, the most difficult problems unlikely will be solved by quantitative methods. Main decisions in human history were subjective, as they have been made by the persons. Making a choice from a set of alternatives, a person evaluates their quality, connecting the objective aspects with his (her) personal values. This fact explains an impossibility of an "objective" choice in principle, even if there is exact quantitative information for decision-making. Therefore, further we shall imply the decision-making problems under uncertainty.
17 Sep 2018
TL;DR: The article outlines the main difficulties of multi-criteria approaches for decision making about outsourcing, related to the fact that the improvement of one important criterion of the enterprise’s activity can lead to the deterioration of another criterion.
Abstract: The article describes disadvantages of existing one-criterion methodologies: only the monetary effect of outsourced process is considered, the analysis of all possible positive and negative consequences of outsourcing is not taken into account. It outlines the main difficulties of multi-criteria approaches for decision making about outsourcing, related to the fact that the improvement of one important criterion of the enterprise’s activity can lead to the deterioration of another criterion.
12 Jun 2018
TL;DR: Using Pontryagin Maximum Principle, all types of optimal trajectories are obtained and then optimal synthesis is constructed, and evolution of obtained synthesis w.r.t problem parameters is investigated.
Abstract: In this paper, we consider a problem on the rocket flight final height maximization under the control and endpoint constraints. The problem is considered on a constrained time interval, filling the gap between problems on free and fixed time interval. Using Pontryagin Maximum Principle, we obtain all types of optimal trajectories and then construct optimal synthesis. In addition, we investigate evolution of obtained synthesis w.r.t problem parameters.
18 Dec 2018
TL;DR: There is evidence that income and wealth inequalities are positively associated with happiness, as measured by the happiness index, and negatively associated with the suicide rate as discussed by the authors, which is considered an objective indicator of unhappiness.
Abstract: There is evidence that income and wealth inequalities are positively associated with happiness, as measured by the happiness index, and negatively associated with the suicide rate (that is considered an objective indicator of unhappiness). Moreover, there is some evidence that happiness is also positively linked the murder rate, especially when it goes hand in hand with inequalities. The possible explanation – competitive nature of human beings (a modification of a “big fish in the small pond” story) and perceptions of social justice: not only people enjoy the better than average position more than an even higher, but below the average position, but they also cherish the dream of becoming better than average. Greater equality that undermines the dream of becoming higher than average turns out to be disappointing for many. If murders occur without high income inequalities (i.e. murders are “unjustified”) and/or inequalities exist without high murders (inequalities are not perceived as unfair and do not cause social tension), then happiness is not affected.
TL;DR: In this article, an integral quadratic functional with a degenerate coefficient at the square of control is considered, and the problem is to find its minimum under a given initial value of the state variable and a free terminal value which comes into the terminal part of the functional.
TL;DR: In this paper, the authors studied ω-periodic solutions of a functional-differential equation of point type that is ωperiodic in the independent variable and state easy-to-verify sufficient conditions for the existence and uniqueness of an ω periodic solution and describe an iteration process for constructing the solution.
Abstract: We study ω-periodic solutions of a functional-differential equation of point type that is ω-periodic in the independent variable. In terms of the right-hand side of the equation, we state easy-to-verify sufficient conditions for the existence and uniqueness of an ω-periodic solution and describe an iteration process for constructing the solution. In contrast to the previously considered scalar linearization, we use a more complicated matrix linearization, which permits extending the class of equations for which one can establish the existence and uniqueness of an ω-periodic solution.
TL;DR: The contribution of Russian participants in the studies and the structure of international scientific ties of domestic scientists are considered in detail in this article, where the initial array of the publications was extracted from the Science Citation Index Expanded database using relevant keywords.
Abstract: Publications of a number of countries on semiconductor nanostructures for 2000–2016 are analyzed on a bibliometric basis. The contribution of Russian participants in the studies and the structure of international scientific ties of domestic scientists are considered in detail. The initial array of the publications was extracted from the Science Citation Index Expanded database using relevant keywords. Information to analyze patent activity was taken from the data of the Russian Federal Service for Intellectual Property (Rospatent), US PTO, and WIPO PATENTSCOPE.
TL;DR: In this article, the authors justify the necessity of cardinal restructuring of the valuation system for mineral resources and the assessment of the efficiency of their development projects, which will help not only consider the requirements of the country's long-term sustainable development but also improve considerably the oil, gas, and condensate recovery factors and reduce the negative environmental consequences.
Abstract: Economic, technical, technological, and organizational problems of subsurface management, primarily oil and gas, are considered. The authors justify the necessity of cardinal restructuring of the valuation system for mineral resources and the assessment of the efficiency of their development projects. Social (economic) efficiency criterion should top the agenda here as in several developed countries. This will help not only consider the requirements of the country’s long-term sustainable development but also improve considerably the oil, gas, and condensate recovery factors and reduce the negative environmental consequences. Simultaneously, it is necessary to balance out the interests of the subsurface user, the state, and society, which requires certain changes in the organizational and economic mechanism of implementing subsurface management projects. If oil and gas projects are implemented in conditions of uncertainty and risk, the organizational and economic mechanism of their implementation should envisage the adaptation of projects to the changing conditions and the methods of valuation of reserves should be updated.
TL;DR: In this paper, the authors focused on the struggle between major socioeconomic universities (SEUs) of Russia for leading positions in the higher education market and showed that only in Russia are SEUs, along with classical universities and technological institutes, the strongest players in the market of higher education establishments.
Abstract: This article is dedicated to the struggle between major socioeconomic universities (SEUs) of Russia for leading positions in the higher education market. It is shown that only in Russia are SEUs, along with classical universities and technological institutes, the strongest players in the market of higher education establishments. The ranking data of the country’s higher schools of economics for 2013‒2016 are given, which demonstrate the escalating competition between the most successful SEUs of Russia, manifested in regular “castling” between the higher education institutions in the top list ranking. The authors emphasize the importance of factors of competitive growth, such as the publication of leading economics journals, the creation of a network of scientific divisions in the structure of universities, the formation of an all-Russia information agenda on their territories, and the development of regional analytics centers.