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Chemonics

About: Chemonics is a based out in . It is known for research contribution in the topics: Population & Climate change. The organization has 52 authors who have published 48 publications receiving 1101 citations. The organization is also known as: Chemonics International.

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Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: An overview of the predicted impacts based on published studies to date, discuss both reactive and proactive management responses, and outline six categories of management actions that will contribute substantially to the protection of valuable river assets are provided.
Abstract: Rivers provide a special suite of goods and services valued highly by the public that are inextricably linked to their flow dynamics and the interaction of flow with the landscape. Yet most rivers are within watersheds that are stressed to some extent by human activities including development, dams, or extractive uses. Climate change will add to and magnify risks that are already present through its potential to alter rainfall, temperature, runoff patterns, and to disrupt biological communities and sever ecological linkages. We provide an overview of the predicted impacts based on published studies to date, discuss both reactive and proactive management responses, and outline six categories of management actions that will contribute substantially to the protection of valuable river assets. To be effective, management must be place-based focusing on local watershed scales that are most relevant to management scales. The first priority should be enhancing environmental monitoring of changes and river responses coupled with the development of local scenario-building exercises that take land use and water use into account. Protection of a greater number of rivers and riparian corridors is essential, as is conjunctive groundwater/surface water management. This will require collaborations among multiple partners in the respective river basins and wise land use planning to minimize additional development in watersheds with valued rivers. Ensuring environmental flows by purchasing or leasing water rights and/or altering reservoir release patterns will be needed for many rivers. Implementing restoration projects proactively can be used to protect existing resources so that expensive reactive restoration to repair damage associated with a changing climate is minimized. Special attention should be given to diversifying and replicating habitats of special importance and to monitoring populations at high risk or of special value so that management interventions can occur if the risks to habitats or species increase significantly over time.

369 citations

Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: Increased African capacity for rainfall observation, forecasting, data management and modelling applications is urgently needed if creative coping strategies are to be devised in response to climate change and increased climate variability.
Abstract: Food security assessment in sub-Saharan Africa requires simultaneous consideration of multiple socio-economic and environmental variables. Early identification of populations at risk enables timely and appropriate action. Since large and widely dispersed populations depend on rainfed agriculture and pastoralism, climate monitoring and forecasting are important inputs to food security analysis. Satellite rainfall estimates (RFE) fill in gaps in station observations, and serve as input to drought index maps and crop water balance models. Gridded rainfall time-series give historical context, and provide a basis for quantitative interpretation of seasonal precipitation forecasts. RFE are also used to characterize flood hazards, in both simple indices and stream flow models. In the future, many African countries are likely to see negative impacts on subsistence agriculture due to the effects of global warming. Increased climate variability is forecast, with more frequent extreme events. Ethiopia requires special attention. Already facing a food security emergency, troubling persistent dryness has been observed in some areas, associated with a positive trend in Indian Ocean sea surface temperatures. Increased African capacity for rainfall observation, forecasting, data management and modelling applications is urgently needed. Managing climate change and increased climate variability require these fundamental technical capacities if creative coping strategies are to be devised.

304 citations

Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: This work provides a set of guidelines for establishing successful long-term collaborations between AI researchers and application-domain experts, relate them to existing AI4SG projects and identify key opportunities for future AI applications targeted towards social good.
Abstract: Advances in machine learning (ML) and artificial intelligence (AI) present an opportunity to build better tools and solutions to help address some of the world’s most pressing challenges, and deliver positive social impact in accordance with the priorities outlined in the United Nations’ 17 Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). The AI for Social Good (AI4SG) movement aims to establish interdisciplinary partnerships centred around AI applications towards SDGs. We provide a set of guidelines for establishing successful long-term collaborations between AI researchers and application-domain experts, relate them to existing AI4SG projects and identify key opportunities for future AI applications targeted towards social good. The AI for Social Good movement aims to apply AI/ML tools to help in delivering on the United Nations’ sustainable development goals (SDGs). Here, the authors identify the challenges and propose guidelines for designing and implementing successful partnerships between AI researchers and application - domain experts.

122 citations

Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: In spite of a decline in malaria disease burden over the past decade in Zambia, a reversal in impact is notable in the year 2009-2010, signifying that control gains are fragile and must be sustained to eliminate malaria.
Abstract: A comprehensive desk review of malaria trends was conducted between 2000-2010 in Zambia to study malaria epidemiology and trends to guide strategies and approaches for effective malaria control. This review considered data from the National Health Information Management System, Malaria Surveys and Programme Review reports and analyzed malaria in-patient cases and deaths in relation to intervention coverage for all ages. Data showed three distinct epidemiological strata after a notable malaria reduction (66%) in in-patient cases and deaths, particularly between 2000-2008. These changes occurred following the (re-)introduction and expansion of indoor residual spraying up to 90% coverage, scale-up of coverage of long-lasting insecticide-treated nets in household from 50% to 70%, and artemisin-based combination therapy nationwide. However, malaria cases and deaths re-surged, increasing in 2009-2010 in the northern-eastern parts of Zambia. Delays in the disbursement of funds affected the implementation of interventions, which resulted in resurgence of cases and deaths. In spite of a decline in malaria disease burden over the past decade in Zambia, a reversal in impact is notable in the year 2009-2010, signifying that control gains are fragile and must be sustained to eliminate malaria.

75 citations

Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: An updated view of potential malaria geographic shifts in Africa under climate change for the more recent climate model projections (AR5) is provided, and a tool for aligning findings with programmatic needs at key scales for decision-makers is provided.
Abstract: Malaria continues to be a disease of massive burden in Africa, and the public health resources targeted at surveillance, prevention, control, and intervention comprise large outlays of expense. Malaria transmission is largely constrained by the suitability of the climate for Anopheles mosquitoes and Plasmodium parasite development. Thus, as climate changes, shifts in geographic locations suitable for transmission, and differing lengths of seasons of suitability will occur, which will require changes in the types and amounts of resources. The shifting geographic risk of malaria transmission was mapped, in context of changing seasonality (i.e. endemic to epidemic, and vice versa), and the number of people affected. A published temperature-dependent model of malaria transmission suitability was applied to continental gridded climate data for multiple future AR5 climate model projections. The resulting outcomes were aligned with programmatic needs to provide summaries at national and regional scales for the African continent. Model outcomes were combined with population projections to estimate the population at risk at three points in the future, 2030, 2050, and 2080, under two scenarios of greenhouse gas emissions (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5). Estimated geographic shifts in endemic and seasonal suitability for malaria transmission were observed across all future scenarios of climate change. The worst-case regional scenario (RCP8.5) of climate change predicted an additional 75.9 million people at risk from endemic (10-12 months) exposure to malaria transmission in Eastern and Southern Africa by the year 2080, with the greatest population at risk in Eastern Africa. Despite a predominance of reduction in season length, a net gain of 51.3 million additional people is predicted be put at some level of risk in Western Africa by midcentury. This study provides an updated view of potential malaria geographic shifts in Africa under climate change for the more recent climate model projections (AR5), and a tool for aligning findings with programmatic needs at key scales for decision-makers. In describing shifting seasonality, it was possible to capture transitions between endemic and epidemic risk areas, to facilitate the planning for interventions aimed at year-round risk versus anticipatory surveillance and rapid response to potential outbreak locations.

65 citations


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Performance
Metrics
No. of papers from the Institution in previous years
YearPapers
20213
20204
20198
20185
20172
20162