City University London

About: City University London is a education organization based out in London, United Kingdom. It is known for research contribution in the topics: Population & Context (language use). The organization has 5735 authors who have published 17285 publications receiving 453290 citations.

The hot hand fallacy and the gambler's fallacy: two faces of subjective randomness?

Abstract: The representativeness heuristic has been invoked to explain two opposing expectations—that random sequences will exhibit positive recency (the hot hand fallacy) and that they will exhibit negative recency (the gambler’s fallacy). We propose alternative accounts for these two expectations: (1) The hot hand fallacy arises from the experience of characteristic positive recency in serial fluctuations in human performance. (2) The gambler’s fallacy results from the experience of characteristic negative recency in sequences of natural events, akin to sampling without replacement. Experiment 1 demonstrates negative recency in subjects’ expectations for random binary outcomes from a roulette game, simultaneously with positive recency in expectations for another statistically identical sequence—the successes and failures of their predictions for the random outcomes. These findings fit our proposal but are problematic for the representativeness account. Experiment 2 demonstrates that sequence recency influences attributions that human performance or chance generated the sequence.

Measuring Individual Differences in Generic Beliefs in Conspiracy Theories Across Cultures: Conspiracy Mentality Questionnaire

Abstract: Conspiracy theories are ubiquitous when it comes to explaining political events and societal phenomena. Individuals differ not only in the degree to which they believe in specific conspiracy theories, but also in their general susceptibility to explanations based on such theories, that is, their conspiracy mentality. We present the Conspiracy Mentality Questionnaire (CMQ), an instrument designed to efficiently assess differences in the generic tendency to engage in conspiracist ideation within and across cultures. The CMQ is available in English, German, and Turkish. In four studies, we examined the CMQ’s factorial structure, reliability, measurement equivalence across cultures, and its convergent, discriminant, and predictive validity. Analyses based on a cross-cultural sample (Study 1a; N = 7,766) supported the conceptualization of conspiracy mentality as a one-dimensional construct across the three language versions of the CMQ that is stable across time (Study 1b; N = 141). Multigroup confirmatory factor analysis demonstrated cross-cultural measurement equivalence of the CMQ items. The instrument could therefore be used to examine differences in conspiracy mentality between European, North American, and Middle Eastern cultures. In Studies 2-4 (total N = 476), we report (re-)analyses of 3 datasets demonstrating the validity of the CMQ in student and working population samples in the UK and Germany. First, attesting to its convergent validity, the CMQ was highly correlated with another measure of generic conspiracy belief. Second, the CMQ showed patterns of meaningful associations with personality measures (e.g., Big Five dimensions, schizotypy), other generalized political attitudes (e.g., social dominance orientation and right-wing authoritarianism), and further individual differences (e.g., paranormal belief, lack of socio-political control). Finally, the CMQ predicted beliefs in specific conspiracy theories over and above other individual difference measures.

A single European currency for EQ-5D health states. Results from a six-country study.

Abstract: The EQ-5D questionnaire is a widely used generic instrument for describing and valuing health that was developed by the EuroQol Group. A primary objective of the EuroQol Group is the investigation of values for health states in the general population in different countries. As part of the EuroQol enterprise 11 population surveys were carried out in six Western European countries (Finland, Germany, The Netherlands, Spain, Sweden and the UK) to value health states as defined by the EQ-5D using a standardised visual analogue scale (EQ-5D VAS). This contribution reports how a European set of general population preference weights was derived from the data collected in the 11 valuation studies. The scores from this set of preference weights can be applied to generate a VAS-based weighted health status index for all the potential 243 EQ-5D health states for use in multi-national studies. To estimate the preference weights a multi-level regression analysis was performed on 82,910 valuations of 44 EQ-5D health states elicited from 6,870 respondents. Stable and plausible solutions were found for the model parameters. The R(2) value was 75%. The analysis showed that the major source of variance, apart from 'random error', was variance between individuals (28.3% of the total residual variance). These results suggest that VAS values for EQ-5D health states in six Western European countries can be described by a common model.

From Blaming the Middle to Harnessing its Potential: Creating Change Intermediaries

Abstract: Middle managers have been under attack as organizational downsizing and reengineering have reduced their number They are also frequently portrayed as obstructive and resistant to change However, recent research suggests that managers at middle levels in organizations may be able to make a strategic contribution Data from research on how managers in an organization undergoing transformation experience change are used to build on this existing research to demonstrate that middle managers fulfil a complex 'change intermediary' position during implementation The findings reveal that a key aspect of this position is the need for middle managers to engage in a range of activities to aid their interpretation of the change intent This interpretation activity then informs the personal changes they attempt to undertake, how they help others through change, how they keep the business going during the transition and what changes they implement in their departments The interpretation aspect of their role is often overlooked, leading to workload issues and role conflict These findings offer an alternative perspective on perceived middle manager resistance and lead into suggestions for future research and organizational implications

Corneal Thickness- and Age-Related Biomechanical Properties of the Cornea Measured with the Ocular Response Analyzer

Abstract: PURPOSE. The Ocular Response Analyzer (ORA) is a new instrument that measures the corneal biomechanical response (corneal hysteresis, CH) to rapid indentation by an air jet. CH is the difference in applanation pressures (P1, P2) between the rising and falling phases of the air jet. The investigation had two parts: a characterization study and a validation study. In the characterization study, the purposes were to investigate the intraocular pressure (IOP)– dependence of CH and to characterize the performance of the ORA. In the validation study, the purposes were to investigate the association between CH and both age and central corneal thickness (CCT) and the agreement between ORA and Goldmann applanation tonometer (GAT) IOP measurements. METHODS. For the characterization study, data were collected from 105 untreated subjects (45 ocular hypertensive patients and 60 normal subjects; mean age, 60 years, range, 26 – 82). GAT and ORA measurements were performed before and after IOP lowering of one randomly selected eye with apraclonidine drops. The change in P1 and P2 (arbitrary units) in relation to change in GAT IOP was analyzed to calibrate the instrument. The relation between P1, P2, and CCT was explored and ORA IOP was derived from the analyses. For the validation study, ORA and GAT IOP and CCT were measured in 144 eyes of 144 untreated subjects (mean age, 58 years; range, 19 – 83). The characterization calculations were applied to the dataset and values of CH and ORA IOP were calculated. The relationship between CH and both subject age and CCT was determined. The associations between CH and CCT and between ORA and GAT IOPs, were investigated by linear regression analysis. The agreement between measuring devices was calculated. RESULTS. In the characterization study, P1 changed by 6.41 arbitrary units for every 1-mm Hg change in GAT IOP. CH (P1 P2) changed by 1.60 arbitrary units for every 1-mm Hg change in GAT IOP. For each unit change in P2, P1 changed by 1.27 units. From this association a new IOP-independent corneal factor was derived [P1 (P2/1.27)] and is termed the corneal constant factor (CCF; mm Hg). ORA IOP normalized for CCF was defined as P2 – CCF (mm Hg). The CCF (mm Hg) was associated with CCT (micrometers) and with age: CCF [(0.036 CCT) (0.028 age)] 1.06 (adjusted r 2 0.34; P 0.0001 for CCT, P 0.007 for age). Normalized ORA IOP measurements were not associated with CCT. GAT IOP was associated with CCT and CCF—more strongly with the latter: GAT IOP (0.03 CCT)1.52 (r 2 0.06, P 0.002); GAT IOP (0.65 CCF) 4.5 (r 2 0.13, P 0.0001). The mean difference (95% limits of agreement) between GAT and normalized ORA IOP was 0.1 (6.6 to 6.8) mm Hg. CONCLUSIONS. The CCF describes an IOP-independent biomechanical property of the cornea that increases with thicker CCT and decreases with greater age. It is moderately strongly associated with CCT and yet explains more of the interindividual variation in GAT IOP than does CCT. Normalized ORA IOP measurements are not associated with CCT. (Invest Ophthalmol Vis Sci. 2006;47:5337–5347) DOI:10.1167/iovs.060557