Showing papers by "Clinical Trial Service Unit published in 2019"

RoB 2: a revised tool for assessing risk of bias in randomised trials.

Abstract: Assessment of risk of bias is regarded as an essential component of a systematic review on the effects of an intervention. The most commonly used tool for randomised trials is the Cochrane risk-of-bias tool. We updated the tool to respond to developments in understanding how bias arises in randomised trials, and to address user feedback on and limitations of the original tool.

Estimating the global cancer incidence and mortality in 2018: GLOBOCAN sources and methods

Abstract: Estimates of the worldwide incidence and mortality from 36 cancers and for all cancers combined for the year 2018 are now available in the GLOBOCAN 2018 database, compiled and disseminated by the International Agency for Research on Cancer (IARC). This paper reviews the sources and methods used in compiling the cancer statistics in 185 countries. The validity of the national estimates depends upon the representativeness of the source information, and to take into account possible sources of bias, uncertainty intervals are now provided for the estimated sex- and site-specific all-ages number of new cancer cases and cancer deaths. We briefly describe the key results globally and by world region. There were an estimated 18.1 million (95% UI: 17.5-18.7 million) new cases of cancer (17 million excluding non-melanoma skin cancer) and 9.6 million (95% UI: 9.3-9.8 million) deaths from cancer (9.5 million excluding non-melanoma skin cancer) worldwide in 2018.

Stroke in China: advances and challenges in epidemiology, prevention, and management

Abstract: With over 2 million new cases annually, stroke is associated with the highest disability-adjusted life-years lost of any disease in China. The burden is expected to increase further as a result of population ageing, an ongoing high prevalence of risk factors (eg, hypertension), and inadequate management. Despite improved access to overall health services, the availability of specialist stroke care is variable across the country, and especially uneven in rural areas. In-hospital outcomes have improved because of a greater availability of reperfusion therapies and supportive care, but adherence to secondary prevention strategies and long-term care are inadequate. Thrombolysis and stroke units are accepted as standards of care across the world, including in China, but bleeding-risk concerns and organisational challenges hamper widespread adoption of this care in China. Despite little supporting evidence, Chinese herbal products and neuroprotective drugs are widely used, and the increased availability of neuroimaging techniques also results in overdiagnosis and overtreatment of so-called silent stroke. Future efforts should focus on providing more balanced availability of specialised stroke services across the country, enhancing evidence-based practice, and encouraging greater translational research to improve outcome of patients with stroke.

Guidelines for performing Mendelian randomization investigations.

Abstract: This paper provides guidelines for performing Mendelian randomization investigations. It is aimed at practitioners seeking to undertake analyses and write up their findings, and at journal editors and reviewers seeking to assess Mendelian randomization manuscripts. The guidelines are divided into nine sections: motivation and scope, data sources, choice of genetic variants, variant harmonization, primary analysis, supplementary and sensitivity analyses (one section on robust statistical methods and one on other approaches), data presentation, and interpretation. These guidelines will be updated based on feedback from the community and advances in the field. Updates will be made periodically as needed, and at least every 18 months.

Association of Lifestyle and Genetic Risk With Incidence of Dementia

Abstract: Importance Genetic factors increase risk of dementia, but the extent to which this can be offset by lifestyle factors is unknown. Objective To investigate whether a healthy lifestyle is associated with lower risk of dementia regardless of genetic risk. Design, Setting, and Participants A retrospective cohort study that included adults of European ancestry aged at least 60 years without cognitive impairment or dementia at baseline. Participants joined the UK Biobank study from 2006 to 2010 and were followed up until 2016 or 2017. Exposures A polygenic risk score for dementia with low (lowest quintile), intermediate (quintiles 2 to 4), and high (highest quintile) risk categories and a weighted healthy lifestyle score, including no current smoking, regular physical activity, healthy diet, and moderate alcohol consumption, categorized into favorable, intermediate, and unfavorable lifestyles. Main Outcomes and Measures Incident all-cause dementia, ascertained through hospital inpatient and death records. Results A total of 196 383 individuals (mean [SD] age, 64.1 [2.9] years; 52.7% were women) were followed up for 1 545 433 person-years (median [interquartile range] follow-up, 8.0 [7.4-8.6] years). Overall, 68.1% of participants followed a favorable lifestyle, 23.6% followed an intermediate lifestyle, and 8.2% followed an unfavorable lifestyle. Twenty percent had high polygenic risk scores, 60% had intermediate risk scores, and 20% had low risk scores. Of the participants with high genetic risk, 1.23% (95% CI, 1.13%-1.35%) developed dementia compared with 0.63% (95% CI, 0.56%-0.71%) of the participants with low genetic risk (adjusted hazard ratio, 1.91 [95% CI, 1.64-2.23]). Of the participants with a high genetic risk and unfavorable lifestyle, 1.78% (95% CI, 1.38%-2.28%) developed dementia compared with 0.56% (95% CI, 0.48%-0.66%) of participants with low genetic risk and favorable lifestyle (hazard ratio, 2.83 [95% CI, 2.09-3.83]). There was no significant interaction between genetic risk and lifestyle factors (P = .99). Among participants with high genetic risk, 1.13% (95% CI, 1.01%-1.26%) of those with a favorable lifestyle developed dementia compared with 1.78% (95% CI, 1.38%-2.28%) with an unfavorable lifestyle (hazard ratio, 0.68 [95% CI, 0.51-0.90]). Conclusions and Relevance Among older adults without cognitive impairment or dementia, both an unfavorable lifestyle and high genetic risk were significantly associated with higher dementia risk. A favorable lifestyle was associated with a lower dementia risk among participants with high genetic risk.

A novel machine learning-derived radiotranscriptomic signature of perivascular fat improves cardiac risk prediction using coronary CT angiography

Abstract: BACKGROUND Coronary inflammation induces dynamic changes in the balance between water and lipid content in perivascular adipose tissue (PVAT), as captured by perivascular Fat Attenuation Index (FAI) in standard coronary CT angiography (CCTA). However, inflammation is not the only process involved in atherogenesis and we hypothesized that additional radiomic signatures of adverse fibrotic and microvascular PVAT remodelling, may further improve cardiac risk prediction. METHODS AND RESULTS We present a new artificial intelligence-powered method to predict cardiac risk by analysing the radiomic profile of coronary PVAT, developed and validated in patient cohorts acquired in three different studies. In Study 1, adipose tissue biopsies were obtained from 167 patients undergoing cardiac surgery, and the expression of genes representing inflammation, fibrosis and vascularity was linked with the radiomic features extracted from tissue CT images. Adipose tissue wavelet-transformed mean attenuation (captured by FAI) was the most sensitive radiomic feature in describing tissue inflammation (TNFA expression), while features of radiomic texture were related to adipose tissue fibrosis (COL1A1 expression) and vascularity (CD31 expression). In Study 2, we analysed 1391 coronary PVAT radiomic features in 101 patients who experienced major adverse cardiac events (MACE) within 5 years of having a CCTA and 101 matched controls, training and validating a machine learning (random forest) algorithm (fat radiomic profile, FRP) to discriminate cases from controls (C-statistic 0.77 [95%CI: 0.62-0.93] in the external validation set). The coronary FRP signature was then tested in 1575 consecutive eligible participants in the SCOT-HEART trial, where it significantly improved MACE prediction beyond traditional risk stratification that included risk factors, coronary calcium score, coronary stenosis, and high-risk plaque features on CCTA (Δ[C-statistic] = 0.126, P < 0.001). In Study 3, FRP was significantly higher in 44 patients presenting with acute myocardial infarction compared with 44 matched controls, but unlike FAI, remained unchanged 6 months after the index event, confirming that FRP detects persistent PVAT changes not captured by FAI. CONCLUSION The CCTA-based radiomic profiling of coronary artery PVAT detects perivascular structural remodelling associated with coronary artery disease, beyond inflammation. A new artificial intelligence (AI)-powered imaging biomarker (FRP) leads to a striking improvement of cardiac risk prediction over and above the current state-of-the-art.

Causal associations of blood lipids with risk of ischemic stroke and intracerebral hemorrhage in Chinese adults

Abstract: Stroke is the second leading cause of death worldwide and accounts for >2 million deaths annually in China1,2. Ischemic stroke (IS) and intracerebral hemorrhage (ICH) account for an equal number of deaths in China, despite a fourfold greater incidence of IS1,2. Stroke incidence and ICH proportion are higher in China than in Western populations3–5, despite having a lower mean low-density lipoprotein cholesterol (LDL-C) concentration. Observational studies reported weaker positive associations of LDL-C with IS than with coronary heart disease (CHD)6,7, but LDL-C-lowering trials demonstrated similar risk reductions for IS and CHD8–10. Mendelian randomization studies of LDL-C and IS have reported conflicting results11–13, and concerns about the excess risks of ICH associated with lowering LDL-C14,15 may have prevented the more widespread use of statins in China. We examined the associations of biochemically measured lipids with stroke in a nested case-control study in the China Kadoorie Biobank (CKB) and compared the risks for both stroke types associated with equivalent differences in LDL-C in Mendelian randomization analyses. The results demonstrated positive associations of LDL-C with IS and equally strong inverse associations with ICH, which were confirmed by genetic analyses and LDL-C-lowering trials. Lowering LDL-C is still likely to have net benefit for the prevention of overall stroke and cardiovascular disease in China. In a nested case-control study from the China Kadoorie Biobank, lowering blood low-density lipoprotein cholesterol levels confers lower risk for ischemic stroke but elevated risk for intracerebral hemorrhage, which was confirmed by genetic Mendelian randomization analyses.

Vitamin D and Calcium for the Prevention of Fracture: A Systematic Review and Meta-analysis

Abstract: Importance Vitamin D and calcium supplements are recommended for the prevention of fracture, but previous randomized clinical trials (RCTs) have reported conflicting results, with uncertainty about optimal doses and regimens for supplementation and their overall effectiveness. Objective To assess the risks of fracture associated with differences in concentrations of 25-hydroxyvitamin D (25[OH]D) in observational studies and the risks of fracture associated with supplementation with vitamin D alone or in combination with calcium in RCTs. Data Sources PubMed, EMBASE, Cochrane Library, and other RCT databases were searched from database inception until December 31, 2018. Searches were performed between July 2018 and December 2018. Study Selection Observational studies involving at least 200 fracture cases and RCTs enrolling at least 500 participants and reporting at least 10 incident fractures were included. Randomized clinical trials compared vitamin D or vitamin D and calcium with control. Data Extraction and Synthesis Two researchers independently extracted data according to the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-analyses (PRISMA) guidelines and assessed possible bias. Rate ratios (RRs) were estimated using fixed-effects meta-analysis. Data extraction and synthesis took place between July 2018 and June 2019. Main Outcomes and Measures Any fracture and hip fracture. Results In a meta-analysis of 11 observational studies (39 141 participants, 6278 fractures, 2367 hip fractures), each increase of 10.0 ng/mL (ie, 25 nmol/L) in 25 (OH)D concentration was associated with an adjusted RR for any fracture of 0.93 (95% CI, 0.89-0.96) and an adjusted RR for hip fracture of 0.80 (95% CI, 0.75-0.86). A meta-analysis of 11 RCTs (34 243 participants, 2843 fractures, 740 hip fractures) of vitamin D supplementation alone (daily or intermittent dose of 400-30 000 IU, yielding a median difference in 25[OH]D concentration of 8.4 ng/mL) did not find a reduced risk of any fracture (RR, 1.06; 95% CI, 0.98-1.14) or hip fracture (RR, 1.14; 95% CI, 0.98-1.32), but these trials were constrained by infrequent intermittent dosing, low daily doses of vitamin D, or an inadequate number of participants. In contrast, a meta-analysis of 6 RCTs (49 282 participants, 5449 fractures, 730 hip fractures) of combined supplementation with vitamin D (daily doses of 400-800 IU, yielding a median difference in 25[OH]D concentration of 9.2 ng/mL) and calcium (daily doses of 1000-1200 mg) found a 6% reduced risk of any fracture (RR, 0.94; 95% CI, 0.89-0.99) and a 16% reduced risk of hip fracture (RR, 0.84; 95% CI, 0.72-0.97). Conclusions and Relevance In this systematic review and meta-analysis, neither intermittent nor daily dosing with standard doses of vitamin D alone was associated with reduced risk of fracture, but daily supplementation with both vitamin D and calcium was a more promising strategy.

Cardiac Troponin T and Troponin I in the General Population

Abstract: Background: There is great interest in widening the use of high-sensitivity cardiac troponins for population cardiovascular disease (CVD) and heart failure screening. However, it is not clear wheth...

Identifying dementia outcomes in UK Biobank: a validation study of primary care, hospital admissions and mortality data.

Abstract: Prospective, population-based studies that recruit participants in mid-life are valuable resources for dementia research. Follow-up in these studies is often through linkage to routinely-collected healthcare datasets. We investigated the accuracy of these datasets for dementia case ascertainment in a validation study using data from UK Biobank—an open access, population-based study of > 500,000 adults aged 40–69 years at recruitment in 2006–2010. From 17,198 UK Biobank participants recruited in Edinburgh, we identified those with ≥ 1 dementia code in their linked primary care, hospital admissions or mortality data and compared their coded diagnoses to clinical expert adjudication of their full-text medical record. We calculated the positive predictive value (PPV, the proportion of cases identified that were true positives) for all-cause dementia, Alzheimer’s disease and vascular dementia for each dataset alone and in combination, and explored algorithmic code combinations to improve PPV. Among 120 participants, PPVs for all-cause dementia were 86.8%, 87.3% and 80.0% for primary care, hospital admissions and mortality data respectively and 82.5% across all datasets. We identified three algorithms that balanced a high PPV with reasonable case ascertainment. For Alzheimer’s disease, PPVs were 74.1% for primary care, 68.2% for hospital admissions, 50.0% for mortality data and 71.4% in combination. PPV for vascular dementia was 43.8% across all sources. UK routinely-collected healthcare data can be used to identify all-cause dementia in prospective studies. PPVs for Alzheimer’s disease and vascular dementia are lower. Further research is required to explore the geographic generalisability of these findings.

Association of Genetic Variants Related to Combined Exposure to Lower Low-Density Lipoproteins and Lower Systolic Blood Pressure With Lifetime Risk of Cardiovascular Disease

Abstract: Importance The relationship between exposure to lower low-density lipoprotein cholesterol (LDL-C) and lower systolic blood pressure (SBP) with the risk of cardiovascular disease has not been reliably quantified. Objective To assess the association of lifetime exposure to the combination of both lower LDL-C and lower SBP with the lifetime risk of cardiovascular disease. Design, Setting, and Participants Among 438 952 participants enrolled in the UK Biobank between 2006 and 2010 and followed up through 2018, genetic LDL-C and SBP scores were used as instruments to divide participants into groups with lifetime exposure to lower LDL-C, lower SBP, or both. Differences in plasma LDL-C, SBP, and cardiovascular event rates between the groups were compared to estimate associations with lifetime risk of cardiovascular disease. Exposures Differences in plasma LDL-C and SBP compared with participants with both genetic scores below the median. Genetic risk scores higher than the median were associated with lower LDL-C and lower SBP. Main Outcomes and Measures Odds ratio (OR) for major coronary events, defined as coronary death, nonfatal myocardial infarction, or coronary revascularization. Results The mean age of the 438 952 participants was 65.2 years (range, 40.4-80.0 years), 54.1% were women, and 24 980 experienced a first major coronary event. Compared with the reference group, participants with LDL-C genetic scores higher than the median had 14.7-mg/dL lower LDL-C levels and an OR of 0.73 for major coronary events (95% CI, 0.70-0.75;P Conclusions and Relevance Lifelong genetic exposure to lower levels of low-density lipoprotein cholesterol and lower systolic blood pressure was associated with lower cardiovascular risk. However, these findings cannot be assumed to represent the magnitude of benefit achievable from treatment of these risk factors.

Genetically Determined Levels of Circulating Cytokines and Risk of Stroke

Abstract: Background: Cytokines and growth factors have been implicated in the initiation and propagation of vascular disease. Observational studies have shown associations of their circulating levels with s...

UK Biobank: opportunities for cardiovascular research.

Abstract: Cardiovascular diseases are a major cause of morbidity and mortality, accounting for 45% of all deaths in European countries in 20161 and almost a third of deaths worldwide in 2013.2 A similar pattern is observed in the UK where cardiovascular diseases were responsible for 27% of deaths in 2014, with coronary heart disease resulting in the largest number of deaths attributable to a single cause (n = ∼69 000) whilst stroke is the third biggest cause (n = ∼39 000).3 Although age-standardized cardiovascular disease mortality rates are decreasing worldwide, the total deaths and burden as measured through disability-adjusted life years of cardiovascular diseases are increasing.4,5 Furthermore, in the UK, cardiovascular risk factors such as high blood pressure and high cholesterol are among the leading causes of disease burden.6 Epidemiological studies have historically played an essential role in identifying the causes and consequences of cardiovascular disease and have resulted in improvements in prevention and treatment. The seminal US-based Framingham Heart Study which recruited 5200 participants between 1948 and 1952, was integral in identifying a range of important risk factors for cardiovascular disease, such as high blood pressure, a high cholesterol level, cigarette smoking, obesity and physical inactivity, and consequently shifted the focus from management to preventative strategies for cardiovascular disease.7 This, together with findings from other epidemiological studies, such as the Seven Countries Study and the MONICA project,8 have been influential in leading to treatments for the primary and secondary prevention of cardiovascular events, most notably statins (that act to lower cholesterol levels), and anithypertensives.9,10 Epidemiological studies such as the Framingham Heart Study with moderate sample sizes are useful in detecting risk factors with large effects on common outcomes; however, they lack statistical power to reliably identify risk factors which have small to moderate effects or to assess associations with disease across subgroups of the population. The need for large sample sizes has led to collaborative efforts, such as the Prospective Studies Collaboration (an individual participant meta-analysis of data from 61 studies and more than a million participants11) that has demonstrated conclusively that a continuous increase in blood pressure corresponds with an increased risk of vascular death across all age groups (see Figure ​Figure11 that illustrates the importance of a large sample size (about 500 000 participants) for detecting this association).12 Sample size is also of particular importance in the current era of genome-wide association studies, where many investigations are aiming to detect either small effects from common variants or large effects from rare variants.13 Open in a separate window Figure 1 Absolute risk of ischaemic heart disease mortality by usual systolic blood pressure and age at risk in 5000, 50 000, and 500 000 participants. Unpublished figure containing data from the Prospective Studies Collaboration, obtained through personal communication. CI, confidence interval; IHD, ischaemic heart disease.

Risks of ischaemic heart disease and stroke in meat eaters, fish eaters, and vegetarians over 18 years of follow-up: results from the prospective EPIC-Oxford study

Abstract: Objective To examine the associations of vegetarianism with risks of ischaemic heart disease and stroke. Design Prospective cohort study. Setting The EPIC-Oxford study, a cohort in the United Kingdom with a large proportion of non-meat eaters, recruited across the country between 1993 and 2001. Participants 48 188 participants with no history of ischaemic heart disease, stroke, or angina (or cardiovascular disease) were classified into three distinct diet groups: meat eaters (participants who consumed meat, regardless of whether they consumed fish, dairy, or eggs; n=24 428), fish eaters (consumed fish but no meat; n=7506), and vegetarians including vegans (n=16 254), based on dietary information collected at baseline, and subsequently around 2010 (n=28 364). Main outcome measures Incident cases of ischaemic heart disease and stroke (including ischaemic and haemorrhagic types) identified through record linkage until 2016. Results Over 18.1 years of follow-up, 2820 cases of ischaemic heart disease and 1072 cases of total stroke (519 ischaemic stroke and 300 haemorrhagic stroke) were recorded. After adjusting for sociodemographic and lifestyle confounders, fish eaters and vegetarians had 13% (hazard ratio 0.87, 95% confidence interval 0.77 to 0.99) and 22% (0.78, 0.70 to 0.87) lower rates of ischaemic heart disease than meat eaters, respectively (P Conclusions In this prospective cohort in the UK, fish eaters and vegetarians had lower rates of ischaemic heart disease than meat eaters, although vegetarians had higher rates of haemorrhagic and total stroke.

Associations Between Hepatitis B Virus Infection and Risk of All Cancer Types.

Abstract: Importance Hepatitis B virus (HBV) has been identified as a major risk factor for hepatocellular carcinoma. However, the associations between HBV infection and other cancer types are not well understood. Objective To assess the associations between chronic HBV infection and risk of all cancer types. Design, Setting, and Participants This population-based study involved 3 cohorts in China. The China Kadoorie Biobank (CKB) prospective cohort study, conducted between June 2004 and July 2008, used a dipstick assay for detection of serum hepatitis B surface antigen (HBsAg) among 496 732 participants to determine the association between HBV infection and risk of all cancer types. Two cohort studies were used to validate the associations by applying more precise serum HBsAg detection assays: the Qidong cohort (37 336 participants enrolled from November 2007 to April 2011) and the Changzhou nested case-control study (17 723 participants enrolled from June 2004 to September 2005). A total of 97 samples of stomach cancer tissues, 10 samples of pancreatic cancer tissues, and 9 samples of lung cancer tissues were included to assess the presence of HBV replication and expression. Statistical analysis was performed from December 2016 to October 2018. Exposures Serum HBsAg status in the population-based stage and HBV DNA status, the expression of hepatitis B X protein, and hepatitis B core antibody (anti-HBc) in the tissue-based stage. Main Outcomes and Measures Incidence of all cancer types during follow-up. Results In the CKB cohort, the mean (SD) age of the 496 732 participants was 51.5 (10.7) years; 59.0% of the participants were women. After 4.4 million person-years of follow-up, participants who were HBsAg seropositive (n = 15 355) had a higher risk of hepatocellular carcinoma (hazard ratio [HR], 15.77; 95% CI, 14.15-17.57), stomach cancer (HR, 1.41; 95% CI, 1.11-1.80), colorectal cancer (HR, 1.42; 95% CI, 1.12-1.81), oral cancer (HR, 1.58; 95% CI, 1.01-2.49), pancreatic cancer (HR, 1.65; 95% CI, 1.03-2.65), and lymphoma (HR, 2.10; 95% CI, 1.34-3.31) when compared with participants who were HBsAg seronegative (n = 481 377). Because of the limitation of sample size, only associations of HBV infection with hepatocellular carcinoma and stomach cancer were validated in the Qidong cohort (hepatocellular carcinoma: HR, 17.51; 95% CI, 13.86-22.11; stomach cancer: HR, 2.02; 95% CI, 1.24-3.29); the Changzhou nested case-control study validated only an association between HBV infection and stomach cancer (odds ratio, 1.76; 95% CI, 1.04-2.98). Moreover, among 22 participants with stomach cancer from the Qidong cohort who were anti-HBc seropositive, 12 samples (54.5%) of cancer tissues were HBV DNA positive, while among 25 participants with stomach cancer who were anti-HBc seronegative, no HBV DNA was detected. The same negative and positive rate was observed in the validation set from Zhejiang Tumor Hospital (19 of 35 samples [54.3%] were HBV DNA positive). Moreover, among the 8 patients with stomach cancer from the Qidong cohort who were anti-HBc seropositive, anti-HBc and hepatitis B X protein were expressed in all of their stomach cancer tissue samples. The same phenomenon was observed in the patients with pancreatic cancer but not in the patients with lung cancer, which was consistent with the population-based results of the CKB cohort. Conclusions and Relevance This study found that HBV infection was also associated with the risk of nonliver cancer, especially digestive system cancers among adults in China.

Role of aspirin in primary prevention of cardiovascular disease

Abstract: The benefits of aspirin therapy for the secondary prevention of cardiovascular disease clearly outweigh the risks of bleeding, and low-dose aspirin is uniformly recommended in this setting. However, no clear consensus exists about whether, and if so in whom, aspirin therapy is appropriate for the primary prevention of cardiovascular disease. Three trials of low-dose aspirin versus placebo in three populations at increased risk of myocardial infarction or ischaemic stroke in the absence of established cardiovascular disease were reported in 2018. The ASPREE trial in elderly people was terminated early for futility because aspirin had no effect on disability-free survival but significantly increased the risk of major haemorrhage and, unexpectedly, all-cause mortality. In the ASCEND trial in patients with diabetes mellitus and no evidence of vascular disease, aspirin significantly reduced serious vascular events but increased major bleeding. In the ARRIVE trial in people with multiple risk factors for cardiovascular disease, aspirin had no effect on major cardiovascular events but increased gastrointestinal bleeding. The aim of this Review is to place these new results in the context of previous evidence on aspirin for the primary prevention of cardiovascular disease and to appraise whether the new evidence is likely to enable the more targeted use of aspirin in particular individuals for whom the net benefit is both clinically worthwhile and statistically definite.

Long-term outcomes of stenting and endarterectomy for symptomatic carotid stenosis: a preplanned pooled analysis of individual patient data

Abstract: Summary Background The risk of periprocedural stroke or death is higher after carotid artery stenting (CAS) than carotid endarterectomy (CEA) for the treatment of symptomatic carotid stenosis. However, long-term outcomes have not been sufficiently assessed. We sought to combine individual patient-level data from the four major randomised controlled trials of CAS versus CEA for the treatment of symptomatic carotid stenosis to assess long-term outcomes. Methods We did a pooled analysis of individual patient-level data, acquired from the four largest randomised controlled trials assessing the relative efficacy of CAS and CEA for treatment of symptomatic carotid stenosis (Endarterectomy versus Angioplasty in Patients with Symptomatic Severe Carotid Stenosis trial, Stent-Protected Percutaneous Angioplasty of the Carotid Artery versus Endarterectomy trial, International Carotid Stenting Study, and Carotid Revascularization Endarterectomy versus Stenting Trial). The risk of ipsilateral stroke was assessed between 121 days and 1, 3, 5, 7, 9, and 10 years after randomisation. The primary outcome was the composite risk of stroke or death within 120 days after randomisation (periprocedural risk) or subsequent ipsilateral stroke up to 10 years after randomisation (postprocedural risk). Analyses were intention-to-treat, with the risk of events calculated using Kaplan-Meier methods and Cox proportional hazards analysis with adjustment for trial. Findings In the four trials included, 4775 patients were randomly assigned, of whom a total of 4754 (99·6%) patients were followed up for a maximum of 12·4 years. 21 (0·4%) patients immediately withdrew consent after randomisation and were excluded. Median length of follow-up across the studies ranged from 2·0 to 6·9 years. 129 periprocedural and 55 postprocedural outcome events occurred in patients allocated CEA, and 206 and 57 for those allocated CAS. After the periprocedural period, the annual rates of ipsilateral stroke per person-year were similar for the two treatments: 0·60% (95% CI 0·46–0·79) for CEA and 0·64% (0·49–0·83) for CAS. Nonetheless, the periprocedural and postprocedural risks combined favoured CEA, with treatment differences at 1, 3, 5, 7, and 9 years all ranging between 2·8% (1·1–4·4) and 4·1% (2·0–6·3). Interpretation Outcomes in the postprocedural period after CAS and CEA were similar, suggesting robust clinical durability for both treatments. Although long-term outcomes (periprocedural and postprocedural risks combined) continue to favour CEA, the similarity of the postprocedural rates suggest that improvements in the periprocedural safety of CAS could provide similar outcomes of the two procedures in the future. Funding None.

GWAS on longitudinal growth traits reveals different genetic factors influencing infant, child, and adult BMI.

Abstract: Early childhood growth patterns are associated with adult health, yet the genetic factors and the developmental stages involved are not fully understood. Here, we combine genome-wide association studies with modeling of longitudinal growth traits to study the genetics of infant and child growth, followed by functional, pathway, genetic correlation, risk score, and colocalization analyses to determine how developmental timings, molecular pathways, and genetic determinants of these traits overlap with those of adult health. We found a robust overlap between the genetics of child and adult body mass index (BMI), with variants associated with adult BMI acting as early as 4 to 6 years old. However, we demonstrated a completely distinct genetic makeup for peak BMI during infancy, influenced by variation at the LEPR/LEPROT locus. These findings suggest that different genetic factors control infant and child BMI. In light of the obesity epidemic, these findings are important to inform the timing and targets of prevention strategies.

Radiation Dose-Response for Risk of Myocardial Infarction in Breast Cancer Survivors

Abstract: Previous reports suggest that radiation therapy for breast cancer can cause ischemic heart disease, with radiationrelated risk increasing linearly with mean whole heart dose. This study aimed to validate these findings and assesses additional risk factors for radiation-related myocardial infarction in a case-control study nested within a cohort of BC survivors treated 70 years of age during 1970-2009. The study confirms a linear relationship between mean whole heart dose and myocardial infarction risk after radiation for breast cancer.

Insomnia symptoms and risk of cardiovascular diseases among 0.5 million adults: A 10-year cohort

Abstract: Objective To examine the associations of individual insomnia symptoms with risks of incident cardio-cerebral vascular diseases (CVD) and possible moderating factors among Chinese adults. Methods The China Kadoorie Biobank is a prospective cohort study that recruited participants from 10 areas across China. Data from 487,200 adults 30 to 79 years of age who were free of stroke, coronary heart disease, and cancer at baseline were analyzed. Three insomnia symptoms were assessed with self-reported difficulties in initiating or maintaining sleep, early morning awakening, and daytime dysfunction for at least 3 d/wk at baseline. Incidences of CVD were followed up through disease registries and national health insurance databases until 2016. Results During a median of 9.6 years of follow-up, 130,032 cases of CVD were documented. Cox regressions showed that 3 insomnia symptoms were associated with increased risk of total CVD, with respective adjusted hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) of 1.09 (95% CI 1.07–1.11), 1.07 (95% CI 1.05–1.09), and 1.13 (95% CI 1.09–1.18). Participants with individual symptoms also had higher risks of ischemic heart disease (IHD; HR 1.13, 1.09, and 1.17) and ischemic stroke but not hemorrhagic stroke. Participants with all 3 symptoms were at an 18%, 22%, or 10% higher risk of CVD, IHD, or ischemic stroke compared to nonsymptomatic adults. Associations between 3 symptoms and CVD incidence were consistently stronger in younger adults or those without baseline hypertension (p for interaction Conclusions Individual and coexisting insomnia symptoms are independent risk factors for CVD incidence, especially among young adults or adults who have not developed hypertension.

The evolving role of radiotherapy in non-small cell lung cancer.

Abstract: Lung cancer is the most commonly diagnosed cancer and biggest cause of cancer mortality worldwide with non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC) accounting for most cases. Radiotherapy (RT) plays a key role in its management and is used at least once in over half of patients in both curative and palliative treatments. This narrative review will demonstrate how the evolution of RT for NSCLC has been underpinned by improvements in RT technology. These improvements have facilitated geometric individualization, increasingly accurate treatment and now offer the ability to deliver truly individualized RT. In this review, we summarize and discuss recent developments in the field of advanced RT in early stage, locally advanced and metastatic NSCLC. We highlight limitations in current approaches and discuss future potential treatment strategies for patients with NSCLC.

Bronchodilator reversibility in asthma and COPD: Findings from three large population studies

Abstract: Bronchodilator response (BDR) testing is used as a diagnostic method in obstructive airway diseases. The aim of this investigation was to compare different methods for measuring BDR in participants with asthma and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) and to study to the extent to which BDR was related to symptom burden and phenotypic characteristics. Forced expiratory volume in 1 s (FEV1) and forced vital capacity (FVC) were measured before and 15 min after 200 μg of salbutamol in 35 628 subjects aged ≥16 years from three large international population studies. The subjects were categorised in three groups: current asthma (n=2833), COPD (n=1146) and no airway disease (n=31 649). Three definitions for flow-related reversibility (increase in FEV1) and three for volume-related reversibility (increase in FVC) were used. The prevalence of bronchodilator reversibility expressed as increase FEV1 ≥12% and 200 mL was 17.3% and 18.4% in participants with asthma and COPD, respectively, while the corresponding prevalence was 5.1% in those with no airway disease. In asthma, bronchodilator reversibility was associated with wheeze (OR 1.36, 95% CI 1.04–1.79), atopy (OR 1.36, 95% CI 1.04–1.79) and higher exhaled nitric oxide fraction, while in COPD neither flow- nor volume-related bronchodilator reversibility was associated with symptom burden, exacerbations or health status after adjusting for pre-bronchodilator FEV1. Bronchodilator reversibility was at least as common in participants with COPD as those with asthma. This indicates that measures of reversibility are of limited value for distinguishing asthma from COPD in population studies. However, in asthma, bronchodilator reversibility may be a phenotypic marker.

The transferability of lipid loci across African, Asian and European cohorts

Abstract: Most genome-wide association studies are based on samples of European descent. We assess whether the genetic determinants of blood lipids, a major cardiovascular risk factor, are shared across populations. Genetic correlations for lipids between European-ancestry and Asian cohorts are not significantly different from 1. A genetic risk score based on LDL-cholesterol-associated loci has consistent effects on serum levels in samples from the UK, Uganda and Greece (r = 0.23–0.28, p < 1.9 × 10−14). Overall, there is evidence of reproducibility for ~75% of the major lipid loci from European discovery studies, except triglyceride loci in the Ugandan samples (10% of loci). Individual transferable loci are identified using trans-ethnic colocalization. Ten of fourteen loci not transferable to the Ugandan population have pleiotropic associations with BMI in Europeans; none of the transferable loci do. The non-transferable loci might affect lipids by modifying food intake in environments rich in certain nutrients, which suggests a potential role for gene-environment interactions. The majority of published GWAS was performed in European ancestry populations. Here, Kuchenbaecker et al., test to which extent lipid loci are shared and find that the major lipid loci are mostly transferrable between Europeans and Asians while there are notable exceptions for African populations.

Causal relationships between obesity and the leading causes of death in women and men

Abstract: Obesity traits are causally implicated with risk of cardiometabolic diseases. It remains unclear whether there are similar causal effects of obesity traits on other non-communicable diseases. Also, it is largely unexplored whether there are any sex-specific differences in the causal effects of obesity traits on cardiometabolic diseases and other leading causes of death. We constructed sex-specific genetic risk scores (GRS) for three obesity traits; body mass index (BMI), waist-hip ratio (WHR), and WHR adjusted for BMI, including 565, 324, and 337 genetic variants, respectively. These GRSs were then used as instrumental variables to assess associations between the obesity traits and leading causes of mortality in the UK Biobank using Mendelian randomization. We also investigated associations with potential mediators, including smoking, glycemic and blood pressure traits. Sex-differences were subsequently assessed by Cochran9s Q-test (Phet). A Mendelian randomization analysis of 228,466 women and 195,041 men showed that obesity causes coronary artery disease, stroke (particularly ischemic), chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, lung cancer, type 2 and 1 diabetes mellitus, non-alcoholic fatty liver disease, chronic liver disease, and acute and chronic renal failure. Higher BMI led to higher risk of type 2 diabetes in women than in men (Phet=1.4x10-5). Waist-hip-ratio led to a higher risk of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (Phet=3.7x10-6) and higher risk of chronic renal failure (Phet=1.0x10-4) in men than women. Obesity traits have an etiological role in the majority of the leading global causes of death. Sex differences exist in the effects of obesity traits on risk of type 2 diabetes, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, and renal failure, which may have downstream implications for public health.

Solid Fuel Use and Risks of Respiratory Diseases. A Cohort Study of 280,000 Chinese Never-Smokers.

Abstract: Rationale: Little evidence from large-scale cohort studies exists about the relationship of solid fuel use with hospitalization and mortality from major respiratory diseases.Objectives: To examine ...