Showing papers by "Columbia University published in 2005"

Experimental observation of the quantum Hall effect and Berry's phase in graphene

Abstract: When electrons are confined in two-dimensional materials, quantum-mechanically enhanced transport phenomena such as the quantum Hall effect can be observed. Graphene, consisting of an isolated single atomic layer of graphite, is an ideal realization of such a two-dimensional system. However, its behaviour is expected to differ markedly from the well-studied case of quantum wells in conventional semiconductor interfaces. This difference arises from the unique electronic properties of graphene, which exhibits electron–hole degeneracy and vanishing carrier mass near the point of charge neutrality1,2. Indeed, a distinctive half-integer quantum Hall effect has been predicted3,4,5 theoretically, as has the existence of a non-zero Berry's phase (a geometric quantum phase) of the electron wavefunction—a consequence of the exceptional topology of the graphene band structure6,7. Recent advances in micromechanical extraction and fabrication techniques for graphite structures8,9,10,11,12 now permit such exotic two-dimensional electron systems to be probed experimentally. Here we report an experimental investigation of magneto-transport in a high-mobility single layer of graphene. Adjusting the chemical potential with the use of the electric field effect, we observe an unusual half-integer quantum Hall effect for both electron and hole carriers in graphene. The relevance of Berry's phase to these experiments is confirmed by magneto-oscillations. In addition to their purely scientific interest, these unusual quantum transport phenomena may lead to new applications in carbon-based electronic and magneto-electronic devices.

Recommendations for chamber quantification: a report from the American Society of Echocardiography's Guidelines and Standards Committee and the Chamber Quantification Writing Group, developed in conjunction with the European Association of Echocardiography, a branch of the European Society of Cardiology.

Abstract: Members of the Chamber Quantification Writing Group are: Roberto M. Lang, MD, FASE, Michelle Bierig, MPH, RDCS, FASE, Richard B. Devereux, MD, Frank A. Flachskampf, MD, Elyse Foster, MD, Patricia A. Pellikka, MD, Michael H. Picard, MD, Mary J. Roman, MD, James Seward, MD, Jack S. Shanewise, MD, FASE, Scott D. Solomon, MD, Kirk T. Spencer, MD, FASE, Martin St John Sutton, MD, FASE, and William J. Stewart, MD

Effects of biodiversity on ecosystem functioning: a consensus of current knowledge

Abstract: Humans are altering the composition of biological communities through a variety of activities that increase rates of species invasions and species extinctions, at all scales, from local to global. These changes in components of the Earth's biodiversity cause concern for ethical and aesthetic reasons, but they also have a strong potential to alter ecosystem properties and the goods and services they provide to humanity. Ecological experiments, observations, and theoretical developments show that ecosystem properties depend greatly on biodiversity in terms of the functional characteristics of organisms present in the ecosystem and the distribution and abundance of those organisms over space and time. Species effects act in concert with the effects of climate, resource availability, and disturbance regimes in influencing ecosystem properties. Human activities can modify all of the above factors; here we focus on modification of these biotic controls. The scientific community has come to a broad consensus on many aspects of the re- lationship between biodiversity and ecosystem functioning, including many points relevant to management of ecosystems. Further progress will require integration of knowledge about biotic and abiotic controls on ecosystem properties, how ecological communities are struc- tured, and the forces driving species extinctions and invasions. To strengthen links to policy and management, we also need to integrate our ecological knowledge with understanding of the social and economic constraints of potential management practices. Understanding this complexity, while taking strong steps to minimize current losses of species, is necessary for responsible management of Earth's ecosystems and the diverse biota they contain.

Effectiveness of Antipsychotic Drugs in Patients with Chronic Schizophrenia

Abstract: background The relative effectiveness of second-generation (atypical) antipsychotic drugs as compared with that of older agents has been incompletely addressed, though newer agents are currently used far more commonly. We compared a first-generation antipsychotic, perphenazine, with several newer drugs in a double-blind study. methods A total of 1493 patients with schizophrenia were recruited at 57 U.S. sites and randomly assigned to receive olanzapine (7.5 to 30 mg per day), perphenazine (8 to 32 mg per day), quetiapine (200 to 800 mg per day), or risperidone (1.5 to 6.0 mg per day) for up to 18 months. Ziprasidone (40 to 160 mg per day) was included after its approval by the Food and Drug Administration. The primary aim was to delineate differences in the overall effectiveness of these five treatments. results Overall, 74 percent of patients discontinued the study medication before 18 months (1061 of the 1432 patients who received at least one dose): 64 percent of those assigned to olanzapine, 75 percent of those assigned to perphenazine, 82 percent of those assigned to quetiapine, 74 percent of those assigned to risperidone, and 79 percent of those assigned to ziprasidone. The time to the discontinuation of treatment for any cause was significantly longer in the olanzapine group than in the quetiapine (P<0.001) or risperidone (P=0.002) group, but not in the perphenazine (P=0.021) or ziprasidone (P=0.028) group. The times to discontinuation because of intolerable side effects were similar among the groups, but the rates differed (P=0.04); olanzapine was associated with more discontinuation for weight gain or metabolic effects, and perphenazine was associated with more discontinuation for extrapyramidal effects. conclusions The majority of patients in each group discontinued their assigned treatment owing to inefficacy or intolerable side effects or for other reasons. Olanzapine was the most effective in terms of the rates of discontinuation, and the efficacy of the conventional antipsychotic agent perphenazine appeared similar to that of quetiapine, risperidone, and ziprasidone. Olanzapine was associated with greater weight gain and increases in measures of glucose and lipid metabolism.

The Transcriptional Landscape of the Mammalian Genome

Abstract: This study describes comprehensive polling of transcription start and termination sites and analysis of previously unidentified full-length complementary DNAs derived from the mouse genome. We identify the 5' and 3' boundaries of 181,047 transcripts with extensive variation in transcripts arising from alternative promoter usage, splicing, and polyadenylation. There are 16,247 new mouse protein-coding transcripts, including 5154 encoding previously unidentified proteins. Genomic mapping of the transcriptome reveals transcriptional forests, with overlapping transcription on both strands, separated by deserts in which few transcripts are observed. The data provide a comprehensive platform for the comparative analysis of mammalian transcriptional regulation in differentiation and development.

Suicide prevention strategies: a systematic review.

Abstract: ContextIn 2002, an estimated 877 000 lives were lost worldwide through suicide. Some developed nations have implemented national suicide prevention plans. Although these plans generally propose multiple interventions, their effectiveness is rarely evaluated.ObjectivesTo examine evidence for the effectiveness of specific suicide-preventive interventions and to make recommendations for future prevention programs and research.Data Sources and Study SelectionRelevant publications were identified via electronic searches of MEDLINE, the Cochrane Library, and PsychINFO databases using multiple search terms related to suicide prevention. Studies, published between 1966 and June 2005, included those that evaluated preventative interventions in major domains; education and awareness for the general public and for professionals; screening tools for at-risk individuals; treatment of psychiatric disorders; restricting access to lethal means; and responsible media reporting of suicide.Data ExtractionData were extracted on primary outcomes of interest: suicidal behavior (completion, attempt, ideation), intermediary or secondary outcomes (treatment seeking, identification of at-risk individuals, antidepressant prescription/use rates, referrals), or both. Experts from 15 countries reviewed all studies. Included articles were those that reported on completed and attempted suicide and suicidal ideation; or, where applicable, intermediate outcomes, including help-seeking behavior, identification of at-risk individuals, entry into treatment, and antidepressant prescription rates. We included 3 major types of studies for which the research question was clearly defined: systematic reviews and meta-analyses (n = 10); quantitative studies, either randomized controlled trials (n = 18) or cohort studies (n = 24); and ecological, or population- based studies (n = 41). Heterogeneity of study populations and methodology did not permit formal meta-analysis; thus, a narrative synthesis is presented.Data SynthesisEducation of physicians and restricting access to lethal means were found to prevent suicide. Other methods including public education, screening programs, and media education need more testing.ConclusionsPhysician education in depression recognition and treatment and restricting access to lethal methods reduce suicide rates. Other interventions need more evidence of efficacy. Ascertaining which components of suicide prevention programs are effective in reducing rates of suicide and suicide attempt is essential in order to optimize use of limited resources.

Twelve-Month Use of Mental Health Services in the United States Results From the National Comorbidity Survey Replication

Abstract: Background Dramatic changes have occurred in mental health treatments during the past decade. Data on recent treatment patterns are needed to estimate the unmet need for services. Objective To provide data on patterns and predictors of 12-month mental health treatment in the United States from the recently completed National Comorbidity Survey Replication. Design and Setting Nationally representative face-to-face household survey using a fully structured diagnostic interview, the World Health Organization’s World Mental Health Survey Initiative version of the Composite International Diagnostic Interview, carried out between February 5, 2001, and April 7, 2003. Participants A total of 9282 English-speaking respondents 18 years and older. Main Outcome Measures Proportions of respondents with 12-monthDSM-IVanxiety, mood, impulse control, and substance disorders who received treatment in the 12 months before the interview in any of 4 service sectors (specialty mental health, general medical, human services, and complementary and alternative medicine). Number of visits and proportion of patients who received minimally adequate treatment were also assessed. Results Of 12-month cases, 41.1% received some treatment in the past 12 months, including 12.3% treated by a psychiatrist, 16.0% treated by a nonpsychiatrist mental health specialist, 22.8% treated by a general medical provider, 8.1% treated by a human services provider, and 6.8% treated by a complementary and alternative medical provider (treatment could be received by >1 source). Overall, cases treated in the mental health specialty sector received more visits (median, 7.4) than those treated in the general medical sector (median, 1.7). More patients in specialty than general medical treatment also received treatment that exceeded a minimal threshold of adequacy (48.3% vs 12.7%). Unmet need for treatment is greatest in traditionally underserved groups, including elderly persons, racial-ethnic minorities, those with low incomes, those without insurance, and residents of rural areas. Conclusions Most people with mental disorders in the United States remain either untreated or poorly treated. Interventions are needed to enhance treatment initiation and quality.

Epileptic seizures and epilepsy : Definitions proposed by the international league against epilepsy (ILAE) and the international bureau for epilepsy (IBE)

Abstract: The International League Against Epilepsy (ILAE) and the International Bureau for Epilepsy (IBE) have come to consensus definitions for the terms epileptic seizure and epilepsy. An epileptic seizure is a transient occurrence of signs and/or symptoms due to abnormal excessive or synchronous neuronal activity in the brain. Epilepsy is a disorder of the brain characterized by an enduring predisposition to generate epileptic seizures and by the neurobiologic, cognitive, psychological, and social consequences of this condition. The definition of epilepsy requires the occurrence of at least one epileptic seizure.

Giving Content to Investor Sentiment: The Role of Media in the Stock Market

Abstract: I quantitatively measure the nature of the media's interactions with the stock market using daily content from a popular Wall Street Journal column. I find that high media pessimism predicts downward pressure on market prices followed by a reversion to fundamentals, and unusually high or low pessimism predicts high market trading volume. These results and others are consistent with theoretical models of noise and liquidity traders. However, the evidence is inconsistent with theories of media content as a proxy for new information about fundamental asset values, as a proxy for market volatility, or as a sideshow with no relationship to asset markets.

A vaccine to prevent herpes zoster and postherpetic neuralgia in older adults.

Abstract: background The incidence and severity of herpes zoster and postherpetic neuralgia increase with age in association with a progressive decline in cell-mediated immunity to varicella– zoster virus (VZV). We tested the hypothesis that vaccination against VZV would decrease the incidence, severity, or both of herpes zoster and postherpetic neuralgia among older adults. methods We enrolled 38,546 adults 60 years of age or older in a randomized, double-blind, placebo-controlled trial of an investigational live attenuated Oka/Merck VZV vaccine (“zoster vaccine”). Herpes zoster was diagnosed according to clinical and laboratory criteria. The pain and discomfort associated with herpes zoster were measured repeatedly for six months. The primary end point was the burden of illness due to herpes zoster, a measure affected by the incidence, severity, and duration of the associated pain and discomfort. The secondary end point was the incidence of postherpetic neuralgia. results More than 95 percent of the subjects continued in the study to its completion, with a median of 3.12 years of surveillance for herpes zoster. A total of 957 confirmed cases of herpes zoster (315 among vaccine recipients and 642 among placebo recipients) and 107 cases of postherpetic neuralgia (27 among vaccine recipients and 80 among placebo recipients) were included in the efficacy analysis. The use of the zoster vaccine reduced the burden of illness due to herpes zoster by 61.1 percent (P<0.001), reduced the incidence of postherpetic neuralgia by 66.5 percent (P<0.001), and reduced the incidence of herpes zoster by 51.3 percent (P<0.001). Reactions at the injection site were more frequent among vaccine recipients but were generally mild. conclusions The zoster vaccine markedly reduced morbidity from herpes zoster and postherpetic neuralgia among older adults.

Eukaryotic cytosine methyltransferases.

Abstract: Ke yW ords 5-methylcytosine, DNA methyltransferase, transposons, genomic imprinting ■ Abstract Large-genome eukaryotes use heritable cytosine methylation to silence promoters, especially those associated with transposons and imprinted genes. Cytosine methylation does not reinforce or replace ancestral gene regulation pathways but instead endows methylated genomes with the ability to repress specific promoters in a manner that is buffered against changes in the internal and external environment. Recent studies have shown that the targeting of de novo methylation depends on multiple inputs; these include the interaction of repeated sequences, local states of histone lysine methylation, small RNAs and components of the RNAi pathway, and divergent and catalytically inert cytosine methyltransferase homologues that have acquired regulatory roles. There are multiple families of DNA (cytosine-5) methyltransferases in eukaryotes, and each family appears to be controlled by different regulatory inputs. Sequence-specific DNA- binding proteins, which regulate most aspects of gene expression, do not appear to be involved in the establishment or maintenance of genomic methylation patterns.

A common haplotype in the complement regulatory gene factor H (HF1/CFH) predisposes individuals to age-related macular degeneration

Abstract: Age-related macular degeneration (AMD) is the most frequent cause of irreversible blindness in the elderly in developed countries. Our previous studies implicated activation of complement in the formation of drusen, the hallmark lesion of AMD. Here, we show that factor H (HF1), the major inhibitor of the alternative complement pathway, accumulates within drusen and is synthesized by the retinal pigmented epithelium. Because previous linkage analyses identified chromosome 1q25-32, which harbors the factor H gene (HF1/CFH), as an AMD susceptibility locus, we analyzed HF1 for genetic variation in two independent cohorts comprised of ≈900 AMD cases and 400 matched controls. We found association of eight common HF1 SNPs with AMD; two common missense variants exhibit highly significant associations (I62V, χ2 = 26.1 and P = 3.2 × 10-7 and Y402H, χ2 = 54.4 and P = 1.6 × 10-13). Haplotype analysis reveals that multiple HF1 variants confer elevated or reduced risk of AMD. One common at-risk haplotype is present at a frequency of 50% in AMD cases and 29% in controls [odds ratio (OR) = 2.46, 95% confidence interval (1.95-3.11)]. Homozygotes for this haplotype account for 24% of cases and 8% of controls [OR = 3.51, 95% confidence interval (2.13-5.78)]. Several protective haplotypes are also identified (OR = 0.44-0.55), further implicating HF1 function in the pathogenetic mechanisms underlying AMD. We propose that genetic variation in a regulator of the alternative complement pathway, when combined with a triggering event, such as infection, underlie a major proportion of AMD in the human population.

Low-level environmental lead exposure and children's intellectual function: an international pooled analysis.

Abstract: Lead is a confirmed neurotoxin, but questions remain about lead-associated intellectual deficits at blood lead levels < 10 µg/dL and whether lower exposures are, for a given change in exposure, associated with greater deficits. The objective of this study was to examine the association of intelligence test scores and blood lead concentration, especially for children who had maximal measured blood lead levels < 10 µg/dL. We examined data collected from 1,333 children who participated in seven international population-based longitudinal cohort studies, followed from birth or infancy until 5‐10 years of age. The full-scale IQ score was the primary outcome measure. The geometric mean blood lead concentration of the children peaked at 17.8 µg/dL and declined to 9.4 µg/dL by 5‐7 years of age; 244 (18%) children had a maximal blood lead concentration < 10 µg/dL, and 103 (8%) had a maximal blood lead concentration < 7.5 µg/dL. After adjustment for covariates, we found an inverse relationship between blood lead concentration and IQ score. Using a loglinear model, we found a 6.9 IQ point decrement [95% confidence interval (CI), 4.2‐9.4] associated with an increase in concurrent blood lead levels from 2.4 to 30 µg/dL. The estimated IQ point decrements associated with an increase in blood lead from 2.4 to 10 µg/dL, 10 to 20 µg/dL, and 20 to 30 µg/dL were 3.9 (95% CI, 2.4‐5.3), 1.9 (95% CI, 1.2‐2.6), and 1.1 (95% CI, 0.7‐1.5), respectively. For a given increase in blood lead, the lead-associated intellectual decrement for children with a maximal blood lead level < 7.5 µg/dL was significantly greater than that observed for those with a maximal blood lead level ≥ 7.5 µg/dL (p = 0.015). We conclude that environmental lead exposure in children who have maximal blood lead levels < 7.5 µg/dL is asso

Crucial role of p53-dependent cellular senescence in suppression of Pten-deficient tumorigenesis

Abstract: Cellular senescence has been theorized to oppose neoplastic transformation triggered by activation of oncogenic pathways in vitro, but the relevance of senescence in vivo has not been established. The PTEN and p53 tumour suppressors are among the most commonly inactivated or mutated genes in human cancer including prostate cancer. Although they are functionally distinct, reciprocal cooperation has been proposed, as PTEN is thought to regulate p53 stability, and p53 to enhance PTEN transcription. Here we show that conditional inactivation of Trp53 in the mouse prostate fails to produce a tumour phenotype, whereas complete Pten inactivation in the prostate triggers non-lethal invasive prostate cancer after long latency. Strikingly, combined inactivation of Pten and Trp53 elicits invasive prostate cancer as early as 2 weeks after puberty and is invariably lethal by 7 months of age. Importantly, acute Pten inactivation induces growth arrest through the p53-dependent cellular senescence pathway both in vitro and in vivo, which can be fully rescued by combined loss of Trp53. Furthermore, we detected evidence of cellular senescence in specimens from early-stage human prostate cancer. Our results demonstrate the relevance of cellular senescence in restricting tumorigenesis in vivo and support a model for cooperative tumour suppression in which p53 is an essential failsafe protein of Pten-deficient tumours.

The circumplex model of affect: an integrative approach to affective neuroscience, cognitive development, and psychopathology

Abstract: The circumplex model of affect proposes that all affective states arise from cognitive interpretations of core neural sensations that are the product of two independent neurophysiological systems. This model stands in contrast to theories of basic emotions, which posit that a discrete and independent neural system subserves every emotion. We propose that basic emotion theories no longer explain adequately the vast number of empirical observations from studies in affective neuroscience, and we suggest that a conceptual shift is needed in the empirical approaches taken to the study of emotion and affective psychopathologies. The circumplex model of affect is more consistent with many recent findings from behavioral, cognitive neuroscience, neuroimaging, and developmental studies of affect. Moreover, the model offers new theoretical and empirical approaches to studying the development of affective disorders as well as the genetic and cognitive underpinnings of affective processing within the central nervous system.

Cytoplasmic Nucleophosmin in Acute Myelogenous Leukemia with a Normal Karyotype

Abstract: Background Nucleophosmin (NPM), a nucleocytoplasmic shuttling protein with prominent nucleolar localization, regulates the ARF-p53 tumor-suppressor pathway. Translocations involving the NPM gene cause cytoplasmic dislocation of the NPM protein. Methods We used immunohistochemical methods to study the subcellular localization of NPM in bone marrow–biopsy specimens from 591 patients with primary acute myelogenous leukemia (AML). We then correlated the presence of cytoplasmic NPM with clinical and biologic features of the disease. Results Cytoplasmic NPM was detected in 208 (35.2 percent) of the 591 specimens from patients with primary AML but not in 135 secondary AML specimens or in 980 hematopoietic or extrahematopoietic neoplasms other than AML. It was associated with a wide spectrum of morphologic subtypes of the disease, a normal karyotype, and responsiveness to induction chemotherapy, but not with recurrent genetic abnormalities. There was a high frequency of FLT3 internal tandem duplications and absen...

Prevalence and Treatment of Mental Disorders, 1990 to 2003.

Abstract: Background Although the 1990s saw enormous change in the mental health care system in the United States, little is known about changes in the prevalence or rate of treatment of mental disorders. Methods We examined trends in the prevalence and rate of treatment of mental disorders among people 18 to 54 years of age during roughly the past decade. Data from the National Comorbidity Survey (NCS) were obtained in 5388 face-to-face household interviews conducted between 1990 and 1992, and data from the NCS Replication were obtained in 4319 interviews conducted between 2001 and 2003. Anxiety disorders, mood disorders, and substance-abuse disorders that were present during the 12 months before the interview were diagnosed with the use of the American Psychiatric Association's Diagnostic and Statistical Manual of Mental Disorders, fourth edition (DSM-IV). Treatment for emotional disorders was categorized according to the sector of mental health services: psychiatry services, other mental health services, general...

R2WinBUGS: A Package for Running WinBUGS from R

Abstract: The R2WinBUGS package provides convenient functions to call WinBUGS from R. It automatically writes the data and scripts in a format readable by WinBUGS for processing in batch mode, which is possible since version 1.4. After the WinBUGS process has finished, it is possible either to read the resulting data into R by the package itself—which gives a compact graphical summary of inference and convergence diagnostics—or to use the facilities of the coda package for further analyses of the output. Examples are given to demonstrate the usage of this package.

Epidemiology of Major Depressive Disorder: Results From the National Epidemiologic Survey on Alcoholism and Related Conditions

Abstract: Objective:To present nationally representative data on 12-month and lifetime prevalence, correlates, and comorbidity of DSM-IV major depressive disorder (MDD) among adults in the United States. Design/Setting/Participants:Face-to-face survey of more than 43000 adults aged 18 years and older residinginhouseholdsandgroupquartersintheUnitedStates. Main Outcome Measures: Prevalence and associationsofMDDwithsociodemographiccorrelatesandAxis I and II disorders. Results:Theprevalenceof12-monthandlifetimeDSM-IV MDD was 5.28% (95% confidence interval, 4.98-5.57) and 13.23% (95% confidence interval, 12.64-13.81), respectively. Being female; Native American; middleaged; widowed, separated, or divorced; and low income increased risk, and being Asian, Hispanic, or black decreased risk (P.05). Women were significantly more likely to receive treatment than men. Both current and lifetimeMDDweresignificantlyassociatedwithotherspecific psychiatric disorders, notably substance dependence, panic and generalized anxiety disorder, and several personality disorders. Conclusions:This large survey suggests a higher prevalence of MDD in the US population than large-sample estimates from the 1980s and 1990s. The shift in highest lifetime risk from young to middle-aged adults is an important transformation in the distribution of MDD in the United States and specificity in risk for an ageperiodcohort.AssociationsbetweenMDDandAxisIand II disorders were strong and significant, with variation within broad categories by specific diagnoses signaling the need for attention to the genetic and environmental reasons for such variation, as well as the implications for treatment response. Arch Gen Psychiatry. 2005;62:1097-1106

Guidelines for Management of Small Pulmonary Nodules Detected on CT Scans: A Statement from the Fleischner Society

Abstract: Lung nodules are detected very commonly on computed tomographic (CT) scans of the chest, and the ability to detect very small nodules improves with each new generation of CT scanner. In reported studies, up to 51% of smokers aged 50 years or older have pulmonary nodules on CT scans. However, the existing guidelines for follow-up and management of noncalcified nodules detected on nonscreening CT scans were developed before widespread use of multi–detector row CT and still indicate that every indeterminate nodule should be followed with serial CT for a minimum of 2 years. This policy, which requires large numbers of studies to be performed at considerable expense and with substantial radiation exposure for the affected population, has not proved to be beneficial or cost-effective. During the past 5 years, new information regarding prevalence, biologic characteristics, and growth rates of small lung cancers has become available; thus, the authors believe that the time-honored requirement to follow every smal...

Reverse engineering of regulatory networks in human B cells.

Abstract: Cellular phenotypes are determined by the differential activity of networks linking coregulated genes. Available methods for the reverse engineering of such networks from genome-wide expression profiles have been successful only in the analysis of lower eukaryotes with simple genomes. Using a new method called ARACNe (algorithm for the reconstruction of accurate cellular networks), we report the reconstruction of regulatory networks from expression profiles of human B cells. The results are suggestive a hierarchical, scale-free network, where a few highly interconnected genes (hubs) account for most of the interactions. Validation of the network against available data led to the identification of MYC as a major hub, which controls a network comprising known target genes as well as new ones, which were biochemically validated. The newly identified MYC targets include some major hubs. This approach can be generally useful for the analysis of normal and pathologic networks in mammalian cells.

Efficacy of climate forcings

Abstract: [1] We use a global climate model to compare the effectiveness of many climate forcing agents for producing climate change. We find a substantial range in the “efficacy” of different forcings, where the efficacy is the global temperature response per unit forcing relative to the response to CO2 forcing. Anthropogenic CH4 has efficacy ∼110%, which increases to ∼145% when its indirect effects on stratospheric H2O and tropospheric O3 are included, yielding an effective climate forcing of ∼0.8 W/m2 for the period 1750–2000 and making CH4 the largest anthropogenic climate forcing other than CO2. Black carbon (BC) aerosols from biomass burning have a calculated efficacy ∼58%, while fossil fuel BC has an efficacy ∼78%. Accounting for forcing efficacies and for indirect effects via snow albedo and cloud changes, we find that fossil fuel soot, defined as BC + OC (organic carbon), has a net positive forcing while biomass burning BC + OC has a negative forcing. We show that replacement of the traditional instantaneous and adjusted forcings, Fi and Fa, with an easily computed alternative, Fs, yields a better predictor of climate change, i.e., its efficacies are closer to unity. Fs is inferred from flux and temperature changes in a fixed-ocean model run. There is remarkable congruence in the spatial distribution of climate change, normalized to the same forcing Fs, for most climate forcing agents, suggesting that the global forcing has more relevance to regional climate change than may have been anticipated. Increasing greenhouse gases intensify the Hadley circulation in our model, increasing rainfall in the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ), Eastern United States, and East Asia, while intensifying dry conditions in the subtropics including the Southwest United States, the Mediterranean region, the Middle East, and an expanding Sahel. These features survive in model simulations that use all estimated forcings for the period 1880–2000. Responses to localized forcings, such as land use change and heavy regional concentrations of BC aerosols, include more specific regional characteristics. We suggest that anthropogenic tropospheric O3 and the BC snow albedo effect contribute substantially to rapid warming and sea ice loss in the Arctic. As a complement to a priori forcings, such as Fi, Fa, and Fs, we tabulate the a posteriori effective forcing, Fe, which is the product of the forcing and its efficacy. Fe requires calculation of the climate response and introduces greater model dependence, but once it is calculated for a given amount of a forcing agent it provides a good prediction of the response to other forcing amounts.

Measuring the Effects of Monetary Policy: A Factor-Augmented Vector Autoregressive (FAVAR) Approach

Abstract: Structural vector autoregressions (VARs) are widely used to trace out the effect of monetary policy innovations on the economy. However, the sparse information sets typically used in these empirical models lead to at least two potential problems with the results. First, to the extent that central banks and the private sector have information not reflected in the VAR, the measurement of policy innovations is likely to be contaminated. A second problem is that impulse responses can be observed only for the included variables, which generally constitute only a small subset of the variables that the researcher and policymaker care about. In this paper we investigate one potential solution to this limited information problem, which combines the standard structural VAR analysis with recent developments in factor analysis for large data sets. We find that the information that our factor-augmented VAR (FAVAR) methodology exploits is indeed important to properly identify the monetary transmission mechanism. Overall, our results provide a comprehensive and coherent picture of the effect of monetary policy on the economy.