Deakin University

About: Deakin University is a education organization based out in Burwood, Victoria, Australia. It is known for research contribution in the topics: Population & Poison control. The organization has 12118 authors who have published 46470 publications receiving 1188841 citations. The organization is also known as: Deakin.

A New Fuzzy-Based Combined Prediction Interval for Wind Power Forecasting

Abstract: This paper makes use of the idea of prediction intervals (PIs) to capture the uncertainty associated with wind power generation in power systems. Since the forecasting errors cannot be appropriately modeled using distribution probability functions, here we employ a powerful nonparametric approach called lower upper bound estimation (LUBE) method to construct the PIs. The proposed LUBE method uses a new framework based on a combination of PIs to overcome the performance instability of neural networks (NNs) used in the LUBE method. Also, a new fuzzy-based cost function is proposed with the purpose of having more freedom and flexibility in adjusting NN parameters used for construction of PIs. In comparison with the other cost functions in the literature, this new formulation allows the decision-makers to apply their preferences for satisfying the PI coverage probability and PI normalized average width individually. As the optimization tool, bat algorithm with a new modification is introduced to solve the problem. The feasibility and satisfying performance of the proposed method are examined using datasets taken from different wind farms in Australia.

Responses of freshwater biota to rising salinity levels and implications for saline water management: a review

Abstract: All of the plants and animals that make up freshwater aquatic communities are affected by salinity. Many taxa possess morphological, physiological and life-history characteristics that provide some capacity for tolerance, acclimatisation or avoidance. These characteristics impart a level of resilience to freshwater communities. To maintain biodiversity in aquatic systems it is important to manage the rate, timing, pattern, frequency and duration of increases in salinity in terms of lethal and sublethal effects, sensitive life stages, the capacity of freshwater biota to acclimatise to salinity and long-term impacts on community structure. We have limited understanding of the impacts of saline water management on species interactions, food-web structures and how elevated salinity levels affect the integrity of communities. Little is known about the effect of salinity on complex ecosystem processes involving microbes and microalgae, or the salinity thresholds that prevent semi-aquatic and terrestrial species from using aquatic resources. Compounding effects of salinity and other stressors are also poorly understood. Our current understanding needs to be reinterpreted in a form that is accessible and useful for water managers. Because of their complexity, many of the remaining knowledge gaps can only be addressed through a multidisciplinary approach carried out in an adaptive management framework, utilising decision-making and ecological risk assessment tools.