Institution
Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco
Other•San Francisco, California, United States•
About: Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco is a other organization based out in San Francisco, California, United States. It is known for research contribution in the topics: Monetary policy & Interest rate. The organization has 132 authors who have published 1096 publications receiving 64046 citations. The organization is also known as: San Francisco Fed.
Papers published on a yearly basis
Papers
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TL;DR: In this article, the authors discuss implications of heterogencity for macroeconomic modeling: a one-sector macroeconomic model that ignores heterogeneity may sometimes require firm level parameters, but at other times the model may require the “biased” aggregate parameters.
Abstract: A typical (roughly) two‐digit industry in the United States appears to have constant or slightly decreasing returns to scale. Three puzzles emerge, however. First, estimates often rise at higher levels of aggregation. Second, apparent decreasing returns contradicts evidence of only small economic profits. Third, estimates with value added differ substantially from those with gross output. A representative‐firm paradigm cannot explain these puzzles, but a simple story of aggregation over heterogeneous units can. Theory and evidence on aggregation invalidate the common use of demand‐side instruments. Finally, we discuss implications of heterogencity for macroeconomic modeling: A one‐sector macroeconomic model that ignores heterogeneity may sometimes require firm‐level parameters, but at other times the model may require the “biased” aggregate parameters.
1,298 citations
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TL;DR: In this article, the authors compare the properties and outcomes of explicit and implicit instrument rules as well as target rules in a small macroeconomic model of the US economy, and find that the latter may be closer to actual operating procedures of inflation-targeting central banks.
Abstract: Policy rules that are consistent with inflation targeting are examined in a small macroeconomic model of the US economy. We compare the properties and outcomes of explicit "instrument rules" as well as "targeting rules." The latter, which imply implicit instrument rules, may be closer to actual operating procedures of inflation-targeting central banks. We find that inflation forecasts are central for good policy rules under inflation targeting. Some simple instrument and target rules do remarkably well relative to the optimal rule; others, including some that are often used as representing inflation targeting, do less.
1,085 citations
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TL;DR: In this paper, the authors construct a measure of aggregate technology change, controlling for varying utilization of capital and labor, non- constant returns and imperfect competition, and aggregation effects, and find that when technology improves, input use and non-resident investment fall sharply.
Abstract: Yes. We construct a measure of aggregate technology change, controlling for varying utilization of capital and labor, non- constant returns and imperfect competition, and aggregation effects. On impact, when technology improves, input use and non- residential investment fall sharply. Output changes little. With a lag of several years, inputs and investment return to normal and output rises strongly. We discuss what models could be consistent with this evidence. For example, standard one-sector real-business-cycle models are not, since they generally predict that technology improvements are expansionary, with inputs and (especially) output rising immediately. However, the evidence is consistent with simple sticky-price models, which predict the results we find: When technology improves, input use and investment demand generally fall in the short run, and output itself may also fall.
1,044 citations
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TL;DR: In this paper, the authors show that the presence of business cycles in HP filtered data does not imply that there are business cycle in the original data and that under plausible assumptions HP stylized facts are determined primarily by the filter and reveal little about the dynamics of underlying data.
966 citations
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TL;DR: In this paper, the authors estimate a model that summarizes the yield curve using latent factors (specifically, level, slope, and curvature) and also include observable macroeconomic variables (i.e., real activity, inflation, and monetary policy instrument).
Abstract: We estimate a model that summarizes the yield curve using latent factors (specifically, level, slope, and curvature) and also includes observable macroeconomic variables (specifically, real activity, inflation, and the monetary policy instrument) Our goal is to provide a characterization of the dynamic interactions between the macroeconomy and the yield curve We find strong evidence of the effects of macro variables on future movements in the yield curve and evidence for a reverse influence as well We also relate our results to the expectations hypothesis
790 citations
Authors
Showing all 137 results
Name | H-index | Papers | Citations |
---|---|---|---|
Glenn D. Rudebusch | 73 | 226 | 22035 |
John C. Williams | 50 | 191 | 13143 |
Michael M. Hutchison | 49 | 204 | 7552 |
Christopher M. James | 47 | 115 | 11854 |
Mary C. Daly | 45 | 205 | 7775 |
John G. Fernald | 41 | 127 | 8298 |
Carl E. Walsh | 41 | 182 | 9806 |
Bart Hobijn | 41 | 161 | 7046 |
Òscar Jordà | 40 | 152 | 7464 |
Reuven Glick | 40 | 172 | 7534 |
Benjamin M. Friedman | 38 | 200 | 6450 |
Mark M. Spiegel | 36 | 224 | 9810 |
Eric T. Swanson | 36 | 96 | 8349 |
Marianne P. Bitler | 34 | 111 | 4483 |
Robert S. Chirinko | 33 | 86 | 4365 |