Showing papers by "Federal Reserve System published in 1968"

Selected Economic Data—Accuracy vs. Reporting Speed

Abstract: In this article, the trade-off between accuracy and reporting speed is analyzed for three widely used monthly time series: retail sales, the book value of inventories in manufacturing and trade, and employees in nonagricultural establishments. The effect of early errors in these series on the preliminary and provisional GNP estimates is also examined. Generally, the accuracy of the statistics is inversely related to the speed with which the data are reported. Even in the best series, the errors associated with the early data are 50 per cent of the changes in the final data. Moreover, the direction of movement indicated by the early and final sets of data differ in 20–50 per cent of the months. These errors are translated into the GNP accounts.