Showing papers by "Federal Reserve System published in 2007"

A Theory of Friendly Boards

Abstract: We analyze the consequences of the board's dual role as advisor as well as monitor of management. Given this dual role, the CEO faces a trade-off in disclosing information to the board: If he reveals his information, he receives better advice; however, an informed board will also monitor him more intensively. Since an independent board is a tougher monitor, the CEO may be reluctant to share information with it. Thus, management-friendly boards can be optimal. Using the insights from the model, we analyze the differences between sole and dual board systems. We highlight several policy implications of our analysis.

Expected Stock Returns and Variance Risk Premia

Abstract: We find that the difference between implied and realized variances, or the variance risk premium, is able to explain more than fifteen percent of the ex-post time series variation in quarterly excess returns on the market portfolio over the 1990 to 2005 sample period, with high (low) premia predicting high (low) future returns. The magnitude of the return predictability of the variance risk premium easily dominates that afforded by standard predictor variables like the P/E ratio, the dividend yield, the default spread, and the consumption-wealth ratio (CAY). Moreover, combining the variance risk premium with the P/E ratio results in an R 2 for the quarterly returns of more than twenty-five percent. The results depend crucially on the use of “modelfree”, as opposed to standard Black-Scholes, implied variances, and realized variances constructed from high-frequency intraday, as opposed to daily, data. Our findings suggest that temporal variation in risk and risk-aversion both play an important role in determining stock market returns.

Real-Time Measurement of Business Conditions

Abstract: We construct a framework for measuring economic activity at high frequency, potentially in real time. We use a variety of stock and flow data observed at mixed frequencies (including very high frequencies), and we use a dynamic factor model that permits exact filtering. We illustrate the framework in a prototype empirical example and a simulation study calibrated to the example.

Neighbors Matter: Causal Community Effects and Stock Market Participation

Abstract: This paper establishes a causal relation between an individual's decision of whether to own stocks and average stock market participation decision of the individual's community. We instrument for the average ownership of an individual's community with lagged average ownership of the states in which one's non-native neighbors were born. Combining this instrumental variables approach with controls for individual and community fixed effects, a broad set of time-varying individual and community controls, and state-by-year effects, rules out alternative explanations. To further establish that word-of-mouth communication drives this causal effect, we show that the results are stronger in more sociable communities.

On the Fit of New Keynesian Models

Abstract: This article provides new tools for the evaluation of dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) models and applies them to a large-scale new Keynesian model. We approximate the DSGE model by a vector autoregression, and then systematically relax the implied cross-equation restrictions and document how the model fit changes. We also compare the DSGE model's impulse responses to structural shocks with those obtained after relaxing its restrictions. We find that the degree of misspecification in this large-scale DSGE model is no longer so large as to prevent its use in day-to-day policy analysis, yet is not small enough to be ignored.

ABCs (and Ds) of Understanding VARs

Abstract: The dynamics of a linear (or linearized) dynamic stochastic economic model can be expressed in terms of matrices (A, B, C, D) that define a state space system for a vector of observables. An associated state space system (A,ˆB,C,ˆD) determines a vector autoregression for those same observables. We present a simple condition for checking when these two state space systems match up and when they do not when there are equal numbers of economic and VAR shocks. We illustrate our condition with a permanent income example. (JEL C32, E32)

External Constraints on Monetary Policy and the Financial Accelerator

Abstract: We develop a small open economy macroeconomic model where financial conditions influence aggregate behavior. We use this model to explore the connection between the exchange rate regime andfinancial distress. We show that fixed exchange rates exacerbate financial crises by tieing the hands of the monetary authorities. We then investigate the quantitative significance by first calibrating the model to Korean data and then showing that it does a reasonably good job of matching the Korean experience during its recent financial crisis. In particular, the model accounts well for the sharp increase in lending rates and the large drop in output, investment and productivity during the 1997-1998 episode. We then perform some counterfactual exercises to illustrate the quantitative significance of fixed versus floating rates both for macroeconomic performance and for welfare. Overall, these exercises imply that welfare losses following a financial crisis are significantly larger under fixed exchange rates relative to flexible exchange rates.

The Welfare Cost of Bank Capital Requirements

Abstract: Capital requirements are the cornerstone of modern bank regulation, yet little is known about their welfare cost. This paper measures this cost and finds that it is surprisingly large. I present a simple framework which embeds the role of liquidity creating banks in an otherwise standard general equilibrium growth model. A capital requirement limits the moral hazard on the part of banks that arises due to deposit insurance. However, this capital requirement is also costly because it reduces the ability of banks to create liquidity. The key insight is that equilibrium asset returns reveal the strength of households' preferences for liquidity and this allows for the derivation of a simple formula for the welfare cost of capital requirements that is a function of observable variables only. Using U.S. data, the welfare cost of current capital adequacy regulation is found to be equivalent to a permanent loss in consumption of between 0.1 and 1 percent.

How Wages Change: Micro Evidence from the International Wage Flexibility Project

Abstract: How do the complex institutions involved in wage setting affect wage changes? The International Wage Flexibility Project provides new microeconomic evidence on how wages change for continuing workers. We analyze individualsA¢â‚¬â„¢ earnings in 31 different data sets from sixteen countries, from which we obtain a total of 360 wage change distributions. We find a remarkable amount of variation in wage changes across workers. Wage changes have a notably non-normal distribution; they are tightly clustered around the median and also have many extreme values. Furthermore, nearly all countries show asymmetry in their wage distributions below the median. Indeed, we find evidence of both downward nominal and real wage rigidities. We also find that the extent of both these rigidities varies substantially across countries. Our results suggest that variations in the extent of union presence in wage bargaining play a role in explaining differing degrees of rigidities among countries.

Minimum Wages and Employment

Abstract: We review the burgeoning literature on the employment effects of minimum wages - in the United States and other countries - that was spurred by the new minimum wage research beginning in the early 1990s. Our review indicates that there is a wide range of existing estimates and, accordingly, a lack of consensus about the overall effects on low-wage employment of an increase in the minimum wage. However, the oft-stated assertion that recent research fails to support the traditional view that the minimum wage reduces the employment of low-wage workers is clearly incorrect. A sizable majority of the studies surveyed in this monograph give a relatively consistent (although not always statistically significant) indication of negative employment effects of minimum wages. In addition, among the papers we view as providing the most credible evidence, almost all point to negative employment effects, both for the United States as well as for many other countries. Two other important conclusions emerge from our review. First, we see very few - if any - studies that provide convincing evidence of positive employment effects of minimum wages, especially from those studies that focus on the broader groups (rather than a narrow industry) for which the competitive model predicts disemployment effects. Second, the studies that focus on the least-skilled groups provide relatively overwhelming evidence of stronger disemployment effects for these groups.

Generalizing the Taylor Principle

Abstract: Recurring change in a monetary policy function that maps endogenous variables into policy choices alters both the nature and the efficacy of the Taylor principle---the proposition that central banks can stabilize the macroeconomy by raising their interest rate instrument more than one-for-one in response to higher inflation. A monetary policy process is a set of policy rules and a probability distribution over the rules. We derive restrictions on that process that satisfy a long-run Taylor principle and deliver unique equilibria in two standard models. A process can satisfy the Taylor principle in the long run, but deviate from it in the short run. The paper examines three empirically plausible processes to show that predictions of conventional models are sensitive to even small deviations from the assumption of constant-parameter policy rules.

Price Setting during Low and High Inflation: Evidence from Mexico

Abstract: This paper provides new insight into the relationship between inflation and the setting of individual prices by examining a large data set of Mexican consumer prices covering episodes of both low and high inflation. When the annual rate of inflation is low (below 10%–15%), the frequency of price changes comoves weakly with inflation because movements in the frequency of price decreases and increases partly offset each other. In contrast, the average magnitude of price changes correlates strongly with inflation because it is sensitive to movements in the relative shares of price increases and decreases. When inflation rises beyond 10%–15%, few price decreases are observed and both the frequency and average magnitude are important determinants of inflation. I show that a menu-cost model with idiosyncratic technology shocks predicts the average frequency and magnitude of price changes well over a range of inflation similar to that experienced by Mexico.

Small Business Credit Scoring and Credit Availability

Abstract: U.S. commercial banks are increasingly using credit scoring models to underwrite small business credits. This paper discusses this technology, evaluates the research findings on the effects of this technology on small business credit availability, and links these findings to a number of research and public policy issues.

Imputing Risk Tolerance from Survey Responses

Abstract: Economic theory assigns a central role to risk preferences. This paper develops a measure of relative risk tolerance using responses to hypothetical income gambles in the Health and Retirement Study. In contrast to most survey measures that produce an ordinal metric, this paper shows how to construct a cardinal proxy for the risk tolerance of each survey respondent. The paper also shows how to account for measurement error in estimating this proxy and how to obtain consistent regression estimates despite the measurement error. The risk tolerance proxy is shown to explain differences in asset allocation across households.

To Leave or Not To Leave: The Distribution of Bequest Motives

Abstract: We examine the effect of observed and unobserved heterogeneity in the desire to die with positive net worth. Using a structural life-cycle model nested in a switching regression with unknown sample separation, we find that roughly three-fourths of the elderly single population has a bequest motive. Both the presence and the magnitude of the bequest motive are statistically and economically significant. On average, households with a bequest motive spend about 25% less on consumption expenditures. We conclude that, among the elderly single households in our sample, about four-fifths of their net wealth will be bequeathed and approximately half of this is due to a bequest motive.

Markups, Gaps, and the Welfare Costs of Business Fluctuations

Abstract: In this paper we present a simple, theory-based measure of the variations in aggregate economic efficiency associated with business fluctuations. We decompose this indicator, which we refer to as “the gap”, into two constituent parts: a price markup and a wage markup, and show that the latter accounts for the bulk of the fluctuations in our gap measure. We also demonstrate the connection between our gap measure and the gap between ouput and its natural level, a more traditional indicator of aggregate inefficiency. Finally, we derive a measure of the welfare costs of business cycles that is directly related to our gap variable. Our welfare measure corresponds to the inefficient component of economic fluctuations, and should thus be interpreted as a lower bound to the costs of the latter. When applied to postwar U.S. data, for some plausible parametrizations, our measure indicates non-negligible welfare losses of gap fluctuations. The results, however, hinge critically on some key parameters, including the intertemporal elasticity of labor supply.

Minimum Wages and Employment

Abstract: We review the burgeoning literature on the employment effects of minimum wages – in the United States and in other countries – that was spurred by the new minimum wage research beginning in the early 1990s. Our review indicates that there is a wide range of existing estimates and, accordingly, a lack of consensus about the overall effects on low-wage employment of an increase in the minimum wage. However, the oft-stated assertion that recent research fails to support the conclusion that the minimum wage reduces employment of low-skilled workers is clearly incorrect. A sizable majority of the studies surveyed in this monograph give a relatively consistent (although not always statistically significant) indication of negative employment effects of minimum wages. In addition, among the papers we view as providing the most credible evidence, almost all point to negative employment effects, both for the United States as well as for many other countries. Two other important conclusions emerge from our review. First, we see very few – if any – studies that provide convincing evidence of positive employment effects of minimum wages, especially from those

Does Market Size Structure Affect Competition? The Case of Small Business Lending

Abstract: Market size structure refers to the distribution of shares of different size classes of local market participants, where the sizes are inclusive of assets both within and outside the local market. We apply this new measure of market structure in two empirical analyses of the US banking industry to address concerns regarding the effects of the consolidation in banking. Our quantity analysis of the likelihood that small businesses borrow from large versus small banks and our small business loan price analysis that includes market size structure as well as conventional measures yield very different findings from most of the literature on bank size and small business lending. Our results do not suggest a significant net advantage or disadvantage for large banks in small business lending overall, or in lending to informationally opaque small businesses in particular. We argue that the prior research that excluded market size structure may be misleading and offer some likely explanations of why our results differ.

Accounting for changes in the homeownership rate

Abstract: This article accounts for the boom in homeownership from 1994 to 2005 by examining the roles of demographic changes and mortgage innovations. To measure the impact of these factors, we construct a quantitative general equilibrium overlapping generation model with housing. In the long-run, mortgage innovation accounts for between 56 and 70% of the increase whereas demographics account for a much smaller portion. We test this result by considering changes in mortgages after 1940. We find that the introduction of the conventional fixed rate mortgage accounts for at least 50% of the observed increase in homeownership during that period.

Bank Runs and Institutions: The Perils of Intervention

Abstract: Governments typically respond to a run on the banking system by temporarily freezing deposits and by rescheduling payments to depositors. Depositors may even be required to demonstrate an urgent need for funds before being allowed to withdraw. We study ex post efficient policy responses to a bank run and the ex ante incentives these responses create. Given that a run is underway, the efficient response is typically not to freeze all remaining deposits, since this would impose heavy costs on individuals with urgent withdrawal needs. Instead, (benevolent) government institutions would allow additional withdrawals, creating further strain on the banking system. We show that when depositors anticipate these extra withdrawals, their incentives to participate in the run actually increase. In fact, ex post efficient interventions can generate the conditions necessary for a self-fulfilling run to occur.

Some Simple Tests of the Globalization and Inflation Hypothesis

Abstract: This paper evaluates the hypothesis that globalization has increased the role of international factors and decreased the role of domestic factors in the inflation process in industrial economies. Towards that end, we estimate standard Phillips curve inflation equations for 11 industrial countries and use these estimates to test several predictions of the globalization and inflation hypothesis. Our results provide little support for this hypothesis. First, the estimated effect of foreign output gaps on domestic consumer price inflation is generally insignificant and often of the wrong sign. Second, we find no evidence that the trend decline in the sensitivity of inflation to the domestic output gap observed in many countries owes to globalization. Finally, and most surprisingly, our econometric results indicate no increase over time in the responsiveness of inflation to import prices for most countries.

Sources and uses of equity extracted from homes

Abstract: In this paper, we present estimates of the disposition of the free cash generated by home equity extraction to finance consumer spending, outlays for home improvements, debt repayment, acquisition of assets, and other uses. We estimate free cash as cash available net of closing costs and repayment of other mortgage debt. We have also extended the quarterly data series for gross equity extraction, presented in our earlier paper (Greenspan and Kennedy, 2005), back to 1968.