Institution
Federal Reserve System
Other•Washington D.C., District of Columbia, United States•
About: Federal Reserve System is a other organization based out in Washington D.C., District of Columbia, United States. It is known for research contribution in the topics: Monetary policy & Inflation. The organization has 2373 authors who have published 10301 publications receiving 511979 citations.
Topics: Monetary policy, Inflation, Interest rate, Market liquidity, Debt
Papers published on a yearly basis
Papers
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TL;DR: In this article, the authors build a dynamic model for GDP growth and yields that completely characterizes expectations of GDP, and confirm this finding by forecasting GDP out-of-sample.
Abstract: A lot, including a few things you may not expect. Previous studies find that the term spread forecasts GDP but these regressions are unconstrained and do not model regressor endogeneity. We build a dynamic model for GDP growth and yields that completely characterizes expectations of GDP. The model does not permit arbitrage. Contrary to previous findings, we predict that the short rate has more predictive power than any term spread. We confirm this finding by forecasting GDP out-of-sample. The model also recommends the use of lagged GDP and the longest maturity yield to measure slope. Greater efficiency enables the yield-curve model to produce superior out-of-sample GDP forecasts than unconstrained OLS regressions at all horizons.
151 citations
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TL;DR: The ratio of total household debt to aggregate personal income in the United States has risen from an average of 0.6 in the 1980s to 1.0 so far this decade.
Abstract: The ratio of total household debt to aggregate personal income in the United States has risen from an average of 0.6 in the 1980s to an average of 1.0 so far this decade. In this paper we explore the causes and consequences of this dramatic increase. Demographic shifts, house price increases, and financial innovation all appear to have contributed to the rise. Households have become more exposed to shocks to asset prices through the greater leverage in their balance sheets, and more exposed to unexpected changes in income and interest rates because of higher debt payments relative to income. At the same time, an increase in access to credit and higher levels of assets should give households, on average, a greater ability to smooth through shocks. We conclude by discussing some of the risks associated with some households having become very highly indebted relative to their assets.
150 citations
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TL;DR: This article used a regression discontinuity design to show that there are sharp and substantial employment cuts following loan covenant violations, when creditors gain rights to accelerate, restructure, or terminate a loan.
Abstract: Using a regression discontinuity design, we provide evidence that there are sharp and substantial employment cuts following loan covenant violations, when creditors gain rights to accelerate, restructure, or terminate a loan. The cuts are larger at firms with higher financing frictions and with weaker employee bargaining power, and during industry and macroeconomic downturns, when employees have fewer job opportunities. Union elections that create new labor bargaining units lead to higher loan spreads, consistent with creditors requiring compensation when employees gain bargaining power. Overall, binding financial contracts have a large impact on employees and are an amplification mechanism of economic downturns. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
150 citations
01 Jan 2007
TL;DR: In this paper, the importance of financial intermediation for economic development is measured by varying the degree to which contracts can be enforced, and the model correctly predicts that the average scale of production should rise with the quality of enforcement.
Abstract: We present a model in which the importance of flnancial intermediation for economic development can be measured. We generate flnancial difierences by varying the degree to which contracts can be enforced. Economies where enforcement is poor direct less capital to the production sector, and employ less e‐cient technologies. Calibrated simulations reveal that the resulting efiect on output is large. Furthermore, the model correctly predicts that the average scale of production should rise with the quality of enforcement. Finally, we flnd that the importance of flnancial development rises with the importance of capital in production.
150 citations
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TL;DR: In this article, the authors studied the optimal timing of real investment under the assumption that investment is irreversible and that new information about returns is arriving over time and showed that investment should be undertaken in this case only when the costs of deferring the project exceed the expected value of information gained by waiting.
Abstract: The optimal timing of real investment is studied under the assumptions that investment is irreversible and that new information about returns is arriving over time. Investment should be undertaken in this case only when the costs of deferring the project exceed the expected value of information gained by waiting. Uncertainty, because it increases the value of waiting for new information, retards the current rate of investment. The nature of investor's optimal reactions to events whose implications are resolved over time is a possible explanation of the instability of aggregate investment over the business cycle.
150 citations
Authors
Showing all 2412 results
Name | H-index | Papers | Citations |
---|---|---|---|
Ross Levine | 122 | 398 | 108067 |
Francis X. Diebold | 110 | 368 | 74723 |
Kenneth Rogoff | 107 | 390 | 75971 |
Allen N. Berger | 106 | 382 | 65596 |
Frederic S. Mishkin | 100 | 372 | 34898 |
Thomas J. Sargent | 96 | 370 | 39224 |
Ben S. Bernanke | 96 | 446 | 76378 |
Stijn Claessens | 96 | 462 | 42743 |
Andrew K. Rose | 88 | 374 | 42605 |
Martin Eichenbaum | 87 | 234 | 37611 |
Lawrence J. Christiano | 85 | 253 | 37734 |
Jie Yang | 78 | 532 | 20004 |
James P. Smith | 78 | 372 | 23013 |
Glenn D. Rudebusch | 73 | 226 | 22035 |
Edward C. Prescott | 72 | 235 | 55508 |