Federal Reserve System

About: Federal Reserve System is a other organization based out in Washington D.C., District of Columbia, United States. It is known for research contribution in the topics: Monetary policy & Inflation. The organization has 2373 authors who have published 10301 publications receiving 511979 citations.

An Investigation of the Risk and Return Relation at Long Horizons

Abstract: This paper examines the relation between expected stock returns and their conditional volatility over different holding periods and across different states of the economy. Seminonparametric density estimation and Monte Carlo integration are used to obtain the expected returns and conditional volatility at various holding intervals. We uncover a significantly positive risk and return relation at long holding intervals, such as one and two years, which is nonexistent at short holding periods such as one month. We also show that the existing finding in the literature of a negative risk and return relation may be attributable to misspecification.

Time-Varying Systemic Risk: Evidence From a Dynamic Copula Model of CDS Spreads

Abstract: This article proposes a new class of copula-based dynamic models for high-dimensional conditional distributions, facilitating the estimation of a wide variety of measures of systemic risk. Our proposed models draw on successful ideas from the literature on modeling high-dimensional covariance matrices and on recent work on models for general time-varying distributions. Our use of copula-based models enables the estimation of the joint model in stages, greatly reducing the computational burden. We use the proposed new models to study a collection of daily credit default swap (CDS) spreads on 100 U.S. firms over the period 2006 to 2012. We find that while the probability of distress for individual firms has greatly reduced since the financial crisis of 2008–2009, the joint probability of distress (a measure of systemic risk) is substantially higher now than in the precrisis period. Supplementary materials for this article are available online.

Housing Wealth and Consumption

Abstract: Housing wealth is about one half of household net worth, and consumption is a considerable fraction (about two thirds) of Gross Domestic Product in the United States. Empirically, movements in housing wealth are associated with movements in consumption in the same direction. This observation has led many economists, commentators and policy makers to study how housing wealth and consumption are linked together. A sizable portion of the comovement between housing wealth and consumption reflects common factors driving both variables, rather than the "wealth effect" of the former on the latter; however, a growing body of evidence suggests that the comovement is larger in developed financial markets and in the presence of liquidity constraints.

Commercial Lending and Distance: Evidence from Community Reinvestment Act Data

Abstract: A number of large banking organizations have substantially broadened the distances at which they are willing to extend commercial loans, but there is also evidence to suggest that this has occurred primarily at the high side of the distribution of lending distances. In this paper, we employ a new source of data to examine the relationship between lending decisions and distance between lender and borrower for that part of the distance distribution where, arguably, most of the competitive interactions among lenders still occur.We report three basic findings: (1) distance operates as a deterrent to lending, even within areas traditionally defined as local markets, (2) distance is more of a deterrent for small banks than for larger organizations, even within these areas, and (3) for those commercial loans made within areas currently treated by regulators as markets, distance has not been declining in importance. Indeed, a preponderance of the evidence suggests that it is becoming, if anything, more of a factor. Possible explanations and policy implications are discussed.