Federal Reserve System

About: Federal Reserve System is a other organization based out in Washington D.C., District of Columbia, United States. It is known for research contribution in the topics: Monetary policy & Inflation. The organization has 2373 authors who have published 10301 publications receiving 511979 citations.

U.S. Intervention: Assessing the Probability of Success

Abstract: This paper estimates the unconditional and conditional probabilities that U.S. interventions successfully smooth short-term mark-dollar and yen-dollar exchange rates. The sample period extends from February 1987 to February 1990. Assuming a binomial distribution, the number of observed successes usually is greater than one would expect to see randomly. Results from a logit model suggest that coordinated intervention has a higher probability of success than unilateral intervention. The probability of success also increases with the dollar amount of an intervention. Other conditioning variables are not significant. The paper presents a reaction function, with adjustments for the incidentally truncated nature of intervention data. Predicted values serve as instruments for intervention in the logit models.

Disaggregate Evidence on the Persistence of Consumer Price Inflation

Abstract: This paper uses disaggregate inflation data spanning all of consumption to examine: (i) the persistence of disaggregate inflation relative to aggregate infation; (ii) the distribution of persistence across consumption sectors; and (iii) whether persistence has changed. Assuming mean inflation to be unchanged within samples, the average persistence of disaggregate inflation is consistently below aggregate persistence. Taking into account an early 1990s shift in mean inflation identified by break tests - including tests applied to systems of disaggregate equations - yields much lower estimates of both aggregate and disaggregate persistence for 1984-02. But with the mean break taken into account, average disaggregate persistence is actually as great as aggregate inflation persistence. A factor model provides a natural framework for interpreting the relationship between aggregate and disaggregate persistence.

Wage and Productivity Dispersion in U.S. Manufacturing: The Role of Computer Investment

Abstract: By exploiting establishment-level data, this paper sheds new light on the sources of the changes in the structure of production, wages, and employment that have occurred over the last several decades. We investigate the following two related hypotheses. First, that most of the recent increase in the dispersion of wages and productivity has occurred across establishments and these changes are linked. Second, that the increased dispersion in wages and productivity across establishments is linked to differential rates of technological adoption across establishments. Our findings are largely supportive of these hypotheses. Specifically, we find that (1) the between-plant component of wage dispersion is an important and growing part of total wage dispersion; (2) much of the between plant increase in wage dispersion is within industries; (3) the between-plant measures of wage and productivity dispersion have increased substantially over the last few decades; and (4) a significant fraction of the rising dispersion in wages and (to a lesser extent) productivity is accounted for by changes in the distribution of computer investment across plants as well as changes in the wage and productivity differentials associated with the computer investment.