Federal Reserve System

About: Federal Reserve System is a other organization based out in Washington D.C., District of Columbia, United States. It is known for research contribution in the topics: Monetary policy & Inflation. The organization has 2373 authors who have published 10301 publications receiving 511979 citations.

Financial intermediary leverage and value-at-risk

Abstract: We study a contracting model for the determination of leverage and balance sheet size for financial intermediaries that fund their activities through collateralized borrowing. The model gives rise to two features: First, leverage is procyclical in the sense that leverage is high when the balance sheet is large. Second, leverage and balance sheet size are both determined by the riskiness of assets. For U.S. investment banks, we find empirical support for both features of our model, that is, leverage is procyclical, and both leverage and balance sheet size are determined by measured risks. In a system context, increased risk reduces the debt capacity of the financial system as a whole, giving rise to amplified de-leveraging by institutions by way of the chain of repo transactions in the financial system.

The effects of bank capital on lending: what do we know, and what does it mean?

Abstract: The effect of bank capital on lending is a critical determinant of the linkage between financial conditions and real activity, and has received especial attention in the recent financial crisis. We use panel-regression techniques—following Bernanke and Lown (1991) and Hancock and Wilcox (1993, 1994)—to study the lending of large bank holding companies (BHCs) and find small effects of capital on lending. We then consider the effect of capital ratios on lending using a variant of Lown and Morgan’s (2006) VAR model, and again find modest effects of bank capital ratio changes on lending. These results are in marked contrast to estimates obtained using simple empirical relations between aggregate commercial-bank assets and leverage growth, which have recently been very influential in shaping forecasters’ and policymakers’ views regarding the effects of bank capital on loan growth. Our estimated models are then used to understand recent developments in bank lending and, in particular, to consider the role of TARP-related capital injections in affecting these developments.

Chapter 15 The specification and influence of asset markets

Abstract: Publisher Summary This chapter discusses portfolio balance models with postulated asset demands, asset demands broadly consistent with but not directly implied by microeconomic theory. The demand for the sum of assets denominated in each currency is homogeneous of degree one in nominal wealth, and the demand for money in each country depends on the return on the security denominated in that country's currency but not on the return on securities denominated in other currencies. However, under these same assumptions the demand for money depends on real wealth. Because the conclusions of macroeconomic analysis often depend crucially on the form of asset demand functions, it is important to continue to explore the implications of the microeconomic theory and other microeconomic approaches. The chapter discusses that the consumer arrives at his or her asset demands by maximizing his or her utility given interest rates and the parameters of the distributions of prices and exchange rates. The distributions of prices and exchange rates are not invariant to changes in the distributions of policy variables and stochastic components of tastes and technology. It has been recognized that a very important item on the research agenda is imbedding consumer's asset demands based on utility maximization in a general equilibrium model in which the distributions of prices and exchange rates are determined endogenously.

Credit Spreads as Predictors of Real-Time Economic Activity: A Bayesian Model-Averaging Approach

Abstract: Employing a large number of financial indicators, we use Bayesian model averaging (BMA) to forecast real-time measures of economic activity. The indicators include credit spreads based on portfolios, constructed directly from the secondary market prices of outstanding bonds, sorted by maturity and credit risk. Relative to an autoregressive benchmark, BMA yields consistent improvements in the prediction of the cyclically sensitive measures of economic activity at horizons from the current quarter out to four quarters hence. The gains in forecast accuracy are statistically significant and economically important and owe almost exclusively to the inclusion of credit spreads in the set of predictors.

Price Ceilings as Focal Points for Tacit Collusion: Evidence from Credit Cards

Abstract: We test whether a nonbinding price ceiling may serve as a focal point for tacit collusion, using data from the credit card market during the 1980's. Our empirical model can distinguish instances when firms match a binding ceiling from instances when firms tacitly collude at a nonbinding ceiling. The results suggest that tacit collusion at nonbinding state-level ceilings was prevalent during the early 1980's, but that national integration of the market reduced the sustainability of tacit collusion by the end of the decade. The results highlight a perverse effect of price regulation.