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Institution

Federal Reserve System

OtherWashington D.C., District of Columbia, United States
About: Federal Reserve System is a other organization based out in Washington D.C., District of Columbia, United States. It is known for research contribution in the topics: Monetary policy & Inflation. The organization has 2373 authors who have published 10301 publications receiving 511979 citations.


Papers
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Journal ArticleDOI
01 Feb 2011
TL;DR: This paper conducted an event-study analysis of Operation Twist and used its estimated effects to assess what should be expected for the recent policy of quantitative easing by the Federal Reserve, dubbed “QE2.”
Abstract: This paper undertakes a modern event-study analysis of Operation Twist and uses its estimated effects to assess what should be expected for the recent policy of quantitative easing by the Federal Reserve, dubbed “QE2.” The paper first shows that Operation Twist and QE2 are similar in magnitude. It then identifies six significant, discrete announcements in the course of Operation Twist that could have had a major effect on financial markets and shows that four did have statistically significant effects. The cumulative effect of these six announcements on longer-term Treasury yields is highly statistically significant but moderate, amounting to about 15 basis points (bp). This estimate is consistent both with time-series analysis undertaken not long after the event and with the lower end of empirical estimates of Treasury supply effects in the literature. The effects of Operation Twist on long-term agency and corporate bond yields are also statistically significant but smaller, about 13 bp for agency securities and 2 to 4 bp for corporates. Thus, the effects of Operation Twist seem to diminish substantially as one moves from Treasury securities toward private sector credit instruments.

371 citations

Book
01 Sep 2000
TL;DR: This article reported the results of a project to estimate and test the stability properties of conventional equations relating real imports and exports of goods and services for the G-7 countries to their incomes and relative prices.
Abstract: This paper reports the results of a project to estimate and test the stability properties of conventional equations relating real imports and exports of goods and services for the G-7 countries to their incomes and relative prices. We begin by estimating cointegration vectors and the error-correction formulations. We then test the stability of these equations using Chow and Kalman-Filter tests. The evidence suggests three findings. First, conventional trade equations and elasticities are stable enough, in most cases, to perform adequately in forecasting and policy simulations. Equations for German trade, as well as equations for French and Italian exports, are an exception. Second, income elasticities of U.S. trade have not been shifting in a direction that will tend to ease the trend toward deterioration in the U.S. trade position. The income-elasticity gap for Japan found in earlier studies was not confirmed in this analysis. Finally, the price channel is weak, if not wholly ineffective, in the case of continental European countries.

370 citations

Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: The authors found that an increase in the output of one manufacturing sector has little or no significant effect on the productivity of other sectors, and provided an explanation for these differences, showing why, with imperfect competition, the use of value-added data leads to a spurious finding of large apparent external effects.

370 citations

Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: In this article, the authors investigate the performance of forecast-based monetary policy rules using five macroeconomic models that reflect a wide range of views on aggregate dynamics and identify the key characteristics of rules that are robust to model uncertainty.
Abstract: We investigate the performance of forecast-based monetary policy rules using five macroeconomic models that reflect a wide range of views on aggregate dynamics. We identify the key characteristics of rules that are robust to model uncertainty: such rules respond to the one-year ahead inflation forecast and to the current output gap, and incorporate a substantial degree of policy inertia. In contrast, rules with longer forecast horizons are less robust and are prone to generating indeterminacy. In light of these results, we identify a robust benchmark rule that performs very well in all five models over a wide range of policy preferences

369 citations

Posted Content
TL;DR: In this article, a model-free analysis and dynamic term structure models were used to decompose declines in yields following Fed announcements into changes in risk premia and expected short rates.
Abstract: Previous research has emphasized the portfolio balance effects of Federal Reserve bond purchases, in which a reduced bond supply lowers term premia. In contrast, we find that such purchases have important signaling effects that lower expected future short-term interest rates. Our evidence comes from a model-free analysis and from dynamic term structure models that decompose declines in yields following Fed announcements into changes in risk premia and expected short rates. To overcome problems in measuring term premia, we consider bias-corrected model estimation and restricted risk price estimation. In comparison with other studies, our estimates of signaling effects are larger in magnitude and statistical significance.

368 citations


Authors

Showing all 2412 results

NameH-indexPapersCitations
Ross Levine122398108067
Francis X. Diebold11036874723
Kenneth Rogoff10739075971
Allen N. Berger10638265596
Frederic S. Mishkin10037234898
Thomas J. Sargent9637039224
Ben S. Bernanke9644676378
Stijn Claessens9646242743
Andrew K. Rose8837442605
Martin Eichenbaum8723437611
Lawrence J. Christiano8525337734
Jie Yang7853220004
James P. Smith7837223013
Glenn D. Rudebusch7322622035
Edward C. Prescott7223555508
Network Information
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Performance
Metrics
No. of papers from the Institution in previous years
YearPapers
202317
202247
2021303
2020448
2019356
2018316