Federal Reserve System

About: Federal Reserve System is a other organization based out in Washington D.C., District of Columbia, United States. It is known for research contribution in the topics: Monetary policy & Inflation. The organization has 2373 authors who have published 10301 publications receiving 511979 citations.

The Effects of Bank Capital on Lending: What Do We Know, and What Does It Mean?

Abstract: The effect of bank capital on lending is a critical determinant of the linkage between financial conditions and real activity, and has received especial attention in the recent financial crisis. We use panel regression techniques—following Bernanke and Lown (1991) and Hancock and Wilcox (1993, 1994)—to study the lending of large bank holding companies (BHCs) and find small effects of capital on lending. We then consider the effect of capital ratios on lending using a variant of Lown and Morgan’s (2006) VAR model, and again find modest effects of bank capital ratio changes on lending. These results are in marked contrast to estimates obtained using simple empirical relations between aggregate commercial bank assets and leverage growth, which have recently been very influential in shaping forecasters’ and policymakers’ views regarding the effects of bank capital on loan growth. Our estimated models are then used to understand recent developments in bank lending and, in particular, to consider the role of TARP-related capital injections in affecting these developments.

The Future of Monetary Aggregates in Monetary Policy Analysis

Abstract: This Paper considers the role of monetary aggregates in modern macroeconomic models of the New Keynesian type. The focus is on possible developments of these models that are suggested by the monetarist literature, and that in addition seem justified empirically. Both the relation between money and inflation, and between money and aggregate demand, are considered. Regarding the first relation, it is argued that both the mean and the dynamics of inflation in present-day models are governed by money growth. This relationship arises from a conventional aggregate-demand channel; an emphasis on the link between monetary aggregates and inflation in no way requires a direct channel connecting money and inflation. The relevance of money for aggregate demand, in turn, lies not via real balance effects (or any other justification for money in the structure of the IS equation), but on money's ability to serve as a proxy for the various substitution effects of monetary policy that exist when many asset prices matter for aggregate demand. This role for monetary aggregates, which is supported by empirical evidence, enhances the value of money to monetary policy.

Corporate Performance, Board Structure and its Determinants in the Banking Industry

Abstract: We examine the relation between board structure (size and composition) and firm performance using a sample of banking firms during 1959-1999. Contrary to the evidence for non-financial firms, we find that banking firms with larger boards do not underperform their peers in terms of Tobin's Q. We argue that M&A activity and features of the bank holding company organizational form may make a larger board more desirable for these firms and document that board size is significantly related to characteristics of our sample firms' structures. Even after accounting for these potential sources of endogeneity, we do not find a negative relationship between board size and Tobin's Q. Our findings suggest that constraints on board size in the banking industry may be counter-productive.

Unemployment Risk and Precautionary Wealth: Evidence from Households' Balance Sheets

Abstract: This paper examines precautionary behavior by relating job-loss risk to household net worth. We use existing best practice and some new strategies to deal with some problematic issues inherent in this literature regarding proxying uncertainty, instrumentation, and incorporating theoretical restrictions. We do not find precautionary variation in the wealth holdings of households with low permanent income, but do find precautionary effects for moderate and higher-income households. When the dependent variable is total net worth, these findings are robust to several alternative specifications. But we do not find precautionary responses in subaggregates of wealth that exclude home equity.

Financial Intermediaries, Financial Stability, and Monetary Policy

Abstract: In a market-based financial system, banking and capital market developments are inseparable. We document evidence that balance sheets of market-based financial intermediaries provide a window on the transmission of monetary policy through capital market conditions. Short-term interest rates are determinants of the cost of leverage and are found to be important in influencing the size of financial intermediary balance sheets. However, except for periods of crises, higher balance-sheet growth tends to be followed by lower interest rates, and slower balance-sheet growth is followed by higher interest rates. This suggests that consideration might be given to a monetary policy that anticipates the potential disorderly unwinding of leverage. In this sense, monetary policy and financial stability policies are closely linked.