Showing papers by "Goddard Space Flight Center published in 1999"

Construction of correlation functions in two and three dimensions

Abstract: This article focuses on the construction, directly in physical space, of simply parametrized covariance functions for data-assimilation applications. A self-contained, rigorous mathematical summary of relevant topics from correlation theory is provided as a foundation for this construction. Covariance and correlation functions are defined, and common notions of homogeneity and isotropy are clarified. Classical results are stated, and proven where instructive. Included are smoothness properties relevant to multivariate statistical-analysis algorithms where wind/wind and wind/mass correlation models are obtained by differentiating the correlation model of a mass variable. the Convolution Theorem is introduced as the primary tool used to construct classes of covariance and cross-covariance functions on three-dimensional Euclidean space R3. Among these are classes of compactly supported functions that restrict to covariance and cross-covariance functions on the unit sphere S2, and that vanish identically on subsets of positive measure on S2. It is shown that these covariance and cross-covariance functions on S2, referred to as being space-limited, cannot be obtained using truncated spectral expansions. Compactly supported and space-limited covariance functions determine sparse covariance matrices when evaluated on a grid, thereby easing computational burdens in atmospheric data-analysis algorithms. Convolution integrals leading to practical examples of compactly supported covariance and cross-covariance functions on R3 are reduced and evaluated. More specifically, suppose that gi and gj are radially symmetric functions defined on R3 such that gi(x) = 0 for |x| > di and gj(x) = 0 for |xv > dj, O di + dj and |x - y| > 2di, respectively, Additional covariance functions on R3 are constructed using convolutions over the real numbers R, rather than R3. Families of compactly supported approximants to standard second- and third-order autoregressive functions are constructed as illustrative examples. Compactly supported covariance functions of the form C(x,y) := Co(|x - y|), x,y ∈ R3, where the functions Co(r) for r ∈ R are 5th-order piecewise rational functions, are also constructed. These functions are used to develop space-limited product covariance functions B(x, y) C(x, y), x, y ∈ S2, approximating given covariance functions B(x, y) supported on all of S2 × S2.

Inter-decadal modulation of the impact of ENSO on Australia

Abstract: The success of an ENSO-based statistical rainfall prediction scheme and the influence of ENSO on Australia are shown to vary in association with a coherent, inter-decadal oscillation in surface temperature over the Pacific Ocean. When this Inter-decadal Pacific Oscillation (IPO) raises temperatures in the tropical Pacific Ocean, there is no robust relationship between year-to-year Australian climate variations and ENSO. When the IPO lowers temperature in the same region, on the other hand, year-to-year ENSO variability is closely associated with year-to-year variability in rainfall, surface temperature, river flow and the domestic wheat crop yield. The contrast in ENSO’s influence between the two phases of the IPO is quite remarkable. This highlights exciting new avenues for obtaining improved climate predictions.

The transition region and coronal explorer

Abstract: This contract is for the development and flight of an experiment to study the solar atmosphere with excellent spatial and temporal resolution; and reduction and analysis of the resultant data. After being launched into a near perfect orbit on 2 April 1998, the spacecraft and instrument remain in good condition and the resultant data are spectacular. Over 6.6 million images have now been taken. Observing highlights this month included several coordinations with CDS, studies of the quiet Sun with SUMER and NMI, coordinations with observers at the SPO Dunn Tower Telescope, and a variety of active region observations. Some of the latter were relatively unique in that they emphasized using the hottest (284A) channel of TRACE. We were informed of the results of the Senior Review Committee's evaluation of all Space Science on-orbit missions and the corresponding fiscal year budgets for TRACE. The budget for FY-02 is modestly less than is being spent in FY-01 and for the years beyond that it is much, much lower.

Global distribution of crustal magnetization discovered by the mars global surveyor MAG/ER experiment

Abstract: Vector magnetic field observations of the martian crust were acquired by the Mars Global Surveyor (MGS) magnetic field experiment/electron reflectometer (MAG/ER) during the aerobraking and science phasing orbits, at altitudes between ∼100 and 200 kilometers. Magnetic field sources of multiple scales, strength, and geometry were observed. There is a correlation between the location of the sources and the ancient cratered terrain of the martian highlands. The absence of crustal magnetism near large impact basins such as Hellas and Argyre implies cessation of internal dynamo action during the early Naochian epoch (∼4 billion years ago). Sources with equivalent magnetic moments as large as 1.3 × 1017 ampere-meter2in the Terra Sirenum region contribute to the development of an asymmetrical, time-variable obstacle to solar wind flow around Mars.

TRACE observation of damped coronal loop oscillations: implications for coronal heating

Abstract: The imaging telescope on board the Transition Region and Coronal Explorer (TRACE) spacecraft observed the decaying transversal oscillations of a long [(130 +/- 6) x 10(exp 6) meters], thin [diameter (2.0 +/- 0.36) x 10(exp 6) meters], bright coronal loop in the 171 angstrom Fe-IX emission line. The oscillations were excited by a solar flare in the adjacent active region. The decay time of the oscillations is 12.1 +/- 6.7 minutes for an oscillation with a frequency 3.90 +/- 0.13 millihertz The coronal dissipation coefficient is estimated to be eight to nine orders of magnitude larger than the theoretically predicted classical value. The larger dissipation coefficient may solve existing difficulties with wave heating and reconnection theories.

The Global Topography of Mars and Implications for Surface Evolution

Abstract: Elevations measured by the Mars Orbiter Laser Altimeter have yielded a high-accuracy global map of the topography of Mars. Dominant features include the low northern hemisphere, the Tharsis province, and the Hellas impact basin. The northern hemisphere depression is primarily a long-wavelength effect that has been shaped by an internal mechanism. The topography of Tharsis consists of two broad rises. Material excavated from Hellas contributes to the high elevation of the southern hemisphere and to the scarp along the hemispheric boundary. The present topography has three major drainage centers, with the northern lowlands being the largest. The two polar cap volumes yield an upper limit of the present surface water inventory of 3.2 to 4.7 million cubic kilometers.

Remote Sensing of Tropospheric Aerosols from Space: Past, Present, and Future.

Abstract: Aerosol particles originate from man-made sources such as urban/industrial activities,rurning associated with land use processes, wind-blown dust, and natural sources. Their interaction with sunlight and their effect on cloud microphysics forms a major uncertainty in predicting climate change. Furthermore, the lifetime of only a few days causes high spatial variability in aerosol optical and radiative properties that requires global observations from space. Remote sensing of aerosol properties from space is reviewed both for present and planned national and international satellite sensors. Techniques that are being used to enhance our ability to characterize the global distribution of aerosol properties include well-calibrated multispectral radiometers, multispectral polarimeters, and multi-angle spectroradiometers. Though most of these sensor systems rely primarily on visible to mid-infrared spectral channels, the availability of of thermal channels to aid in cloud screening is an important additional piece of information that is not always incorporated into the sensor design. In this paper we describe the various satellite sensor systems being developed by Europe, Japan, and the U.S., and highlight the advantages and disadvantages of each of these systems for aerosol applications. An important underlying theme is that the remote sensing of aerosol properties, especially aerosol size distribution and single scattering albedo, is exceedingly difficult. As a consequence, no one sensor system is capable of providing totally unambiguous information, and hence a careful intercomparison of derived products from different sensors, together with a comprehensive network of ground-based sun-photometer and sky radiometer systems, are required to advance our quantitative understanding of global aerosol characteristics.

GISS analysis of surface temperature change

Abstract: We describe the current GISS analysis of surface temperature change based primarily on meteorological station measurements. The global surface temperature in 1998 was the warmest in the period of instrumental data. The rate of temperature change is higher in the past 25 years than at any previous time in the period of instrumental data. The warmth of 1998 is too large and pervasive to be fully accounted for by the recent El Nino, suggesting that global temperature may have moved to a higher level, analogous to the increase that occurred in the late 1970s. The warming in the United States over the past 50 years is smaller than in most of the world, and over that period there is a slight cooling trend in the Eastern United States and the neighboring Atlantic ocean. The spatial and temporal patterns of the temperature change suggest that more than one mechanism is involved in this regional cooling.

Phytoplankton Community Structure and the Drawdown of Nutrients and CO2 in the Southern Ocean

Abstract: Data from recent oceanographic cruises show that phytoplankton community structure in the Ross Sea is related to mixed layer depth. Diatoms dominate in highly stratified waters, whereas Phaeocystis antarctica assemblages dominate where waters are more deeply mixed. The drawdown of both carbon dioxide (CO2) and nitrate per mole of phosphate and the rate of new production by diatoms are much lower than that measured for P. antarctica. Consequently, the capacity of the biological community to draw down atmospheric CO2 and transport it to the deep ocean could diminish dramatically if predicted increases in upper ocean stratification due to climate warming should occur.

Soil moisture mapping at regional scales using microwave radiometry: the Southern Great Plains Hydrology Experiment

Abstract: Surface soil moisture retrieval algorithms based on passive microwave observations, developed and verified at high spatial resolution, were evaluated in a regional scale experiment. Using previous investigations as a base, the Southern Great Plains Hydrology Experiment (SGP97) was designed and conducted to extend the algorithm to coarser resolutions, larger regions with more diverse conditions, and longer time periods. The L-band electronically scanned thinned array radiometer (ESTAR) was used for daily mapping of surface soil moisture over an area greater than 10000 km/sup 2/ for a one month period. Results show that the soil moisture retrieval algorithm performed the same as in previous investigations, demonstrating consistency of both the retrieval and the instrument. Error levels were on the order of 3% for area Integrated averages of sites used for validation. This result showed that for the coarser resolution used that the theory and techniques employed in the algorithm apply at this scale. Spatial patterns observed in the Little Washita Watershed in previous investigations were also observed. These results showed that soil texture dominated the spatial pattern at this scale. However, the regional soil moisture patterns were a reflection of the spatially variable rainfall and soil texture patterns were not as obvious.

Observation of contemporaneous optical radiation from a γ-ray burst

Abstract: The origin of γ-ray bursts (GRBs) has been enigmatic since their discovery1. The situation improved dramatically in 1997, when the rapid availability of precise coordinates2,3 for the bursts allowed the detection of faint optical and radio afterglows — optical spectra thus obtained have demonstrated conclusively that the bursts occur at cosmological distances. But, despite efforts by several groups4,5,6,7, optical detection has not hitherto been achieved during the brief duration of a burst. Here we report the detection of bright optical emission from GRB990123 while the burst was still in progress. Our observations begin 22 seconds after the onset of the burst and show an increase in brightness by a factor of 14 during the first 25 seconds; the brightness then declines by a factor of 100, at which point (700 seconds after the burst onset) it falls below our detection threshold. The redshift of this burst, z ≈ 1.6 (refs 8, 9), implies a peak optical luminosity of 5× 1049 erg s−1. Optical emission from γ-ray bursts has been generally thought to take place at the shock fronts generated by interaction of the primary energy source with the surrounding medium, where the γ-rays might also be produced. The lack of a significant change in the γ-ray light curve when the optical emission develops suggests that the γ-rays are not produced at the shock front, but closer to the site of the original explosion10.

Climate and Satellite Indicators to Forecast Rift Valley Fever Epidemics in Kenya

Abstract: All known Rift Valley fever virus outbreaks in East Africa from 1950 to May 1998, and probably earlier, followed periods of abnormally high rainfall. Analysis of this record and Pacific and Indian Ocean sea surface temperature anomalies, coupled with satellite normalized difference vegetation index data, shows that prediction of Rift Valley fever outbreaks may be made up to 5 months in advance of outbreaks in East Africa. Concurrent near-real-time monitoring with satellite normalized difference vegetation data may identify actual affected areas.

The Nature of Accreting Black Holes in Nearby Galaxy Nuclei

Abstract: We have found compact X-ray sources in the center of 21 (54%) of 39 nearby face-on spiral and elliptical galaxies with available ROSAT HRI data. ROSAT X-ray luminosities (0.2-2.4 keV) of these compact X-ray sources are ~1037-1040 ergs s-1 (with a mean of 3 × 1039 ergs s-1). The mean displacement between the location of the compact X-ray source and the optical photometric center of the galaxy is ~390 pc. The fact that compact nuclear sources were found in nearly all (five of six) galaxies with previous evidence for a black hole or an active galactic nucleus (AGN) indicates that at least some of the X-ray sources are accreting supermassive black holes. ASCA spectra of six of the 21 galaxies show the presence of a hard component with relatively steep (Γ ≈ 2.5) spectral slope. A multicolor disk blackbody model fits the data from the spiral galaxies well, suggesting that the X-ray object in these galaxies may be similar to a black hole candidate in its soft (high) state. ASCA data from the elliptical galaxies indicate that hot (kT ≈ 0.7 keV) gas dominates the emission. The fact that (for both spiral and elliptical galaxies) the spectral slope is steeper than in normal type 1 AGNs and that relatively low absorbing columns (NH ≈ 1021 cm-2) were found to the power-law component indicates that these objects are somehow geometrically and/or physically different from AGNs in normal active galaxies. The X-ray sources in the spiral and elliptical galaxies may be black hole X-ray binaries, low-luminosity AGNs, or possibly young X-ray luminous supernovae. Assuming the sources in the spiral galaxies are accreting black holes in their soft state, we estimate black hole masses ~102-104 M☉.

Biological and Chemical Response of the Equatorial Pacific Ocean to the 1997-98 El Niño

Abstract: During the 1997–98 El Nino, the equatorial Pacific Ocean retained 0.7 × 10 15 grams of carbon that normally would have been lost to the atmosphere as carbon dioxide. The surface ocean became impoverished in plant nutrients, and chlorophyll concentrations were the lowest on record. A dramatic recovery occurred in mid-1998, the system became highly productive, analogous to coastal environments, and carbon dioxide flux out of the ocean was again high. The spatial extent of the phytoplankton bloom that followed recovery from El Nino was the largest ever observed for the equatorial Pacific. These chemical and ecological perturbations were linked to changes in the upwelling of nutrient-enriched waters. The description and explanation of these dynamic changes would not have been possible without an observing system that combines biological, chemical, and physical sensors on moorings with remote sensing of chlorophyll.

A Solar Radiation Parameterization for Atmospheric Studies

Abstract: The solar radiation parameterization (CLIRAD-SW) developed at the Goddard Climate and Radiation Branch for application to atmospheric models are described. It includes the absorption by water vapor, O3, O2, CO2, clouds, and aerosols and the scattering by clouds, aerosols, and gases. Depending upon the nature of absorption, different approaches are applied to different absorbers. In the ultraviolet and visible regions, the spectrum is divided into 8 bands, and single O3 absorption coefficient and Rayleigh scattering coefficient are used for each band. In the infrared, the spectrum is divided into 3 bands, and the k-distribution method is applied for water vapor absorption. The flux reduction due to O2 is derived from a simple function, while the flux reduction due to CO2 is derived from precomputed tables. Cloud single-scattering properties are parameterized, separately for liquid drops and ice, as functions of water amount and effective particle size. A maximum-random approximation is adopted for the overlapping of clouds at different heights. Fluxes are computed using the Delta-Eddington approximation.

Calibrator Design for the COBE* Far Infrared Absolute Spectrophotometer (FIRAS)

Abstract: The photometric errors of the external calibrator for the Far Infrared Absolute Spectrophotometer (FIRAS) instrument on the COBE are smaller than the measurement errors on the cosmic microwave background radiation (CMBR) spectrum (typically 0.02 MJy sr-1, 1 σ) and smaller than 0.01% of the peak brightness of the CMB. The calibrator is a reentrant cone, shaped like a trumpet mute, made of Eccosorb iron-loaded epoxy. It fills the entire beam of the instrument and is the source of its accuracy. Its known errors are caused by reflections, temperature gradients, and leakage through the material and around the edge. Estimates and limits are given for all known error sources. Improvements in understanding the temperature measurements of the calibrator allow an improved CMB temperature determination of 2.725±0.002 K.

Enhancement of Interdecadal Climate Variability in the Sahel by Vegetation Interaction.

Abstract: The role of naturally varying vegetation in influencing the climate variability in the West African Sahel is explored in a coupled atmosphere-land-vegetation model. The Sahel rainfall variability is influenced by sea-surface temperature variations in the oceans. Land-surface feedback is found to increase this variability both on interannual and interdecadal time scales. Interactive vegetation enhances the interdecadal variation substantially but can reduce year-to-year variability because of a phase lag introduced by the relatively slow vegetation adjustment time. Variations in vegetation accompany the changes in rainfall, in particular the multidecadal drying trend from the 1950s to the 1980s.

The large‐scale HI structure of the Small Magellanic Cloud

Abstract: We combine new Parkes telescope observations of neutral hydrogen (Hi) in the Small Magellanic Cloud (SMC) with an Australia Telescope Compact Array (ATCA) aperture synthesis mosaic to obtain a set of images sensitive to all angular (spatial) scales between 98 arcsec (30 pc) and 4° (4 kpc). The new data are used to study the HI spatial power spectrum over a range of contiguous scale sizes wider than those previously achieved in any other galaxy, including our own. The spatial power spectrum closely obeys the relation P(k) ∝ kγ, with γ =-3.04 ± 0.02, similar to values obtained by other authors for our own Galaxy which are in the range γ =-3.0 to -2.8. This is surprising given the very different morphology, gas-richness, star-formation rate and evolution of the two systems, and may imply similar mechanisms for structure formation. One interpretation of the P(k) power-law is that the interstellar medium (ISM) of the SMC is fractal in nature, consisting of a hierarchy of HI cloud structures created, for example, by homogeneous turbulence. The projected fractal dimension of Dp=1.5 is similar to values obtained by other authors for molecular clouds in the Galaxy in the size range ∼ 0.05 to 100 pc. Such a model is consistent with a low space-filling factor for the neutral gas. A kinematic study of the HI data reveals the existence of three supergiant shells which were previously undetectable in the ATCA data alone. These shells have diameters up to 1.8 kpc and require energies (in the standard supernova-driven models) up to 2×1054 erg. The structure and evolution of the ISM in the SMC are heavily influenced by the formation of these supergiant shells.

A Global Ocean Tide Model From TOPEX/POSEIDON Altimetry: GOT99.2

Abstract: Goddard Ocean Tide model GOT99.2 is a new solution for the amplitudes and phases of the global oceanic tides, based on over six years of sea-surface height measurements by the TOPEX/POSEIDON satellite altimeter. Comparison with deep-ocean tide-gauge measurements show that this new tidal solution is an improvement over previous global models, with accuracies for the main semidiurnal lunar constituent M2 now below 1.5 cm (deep water only). The new solution benefits from use of prior hydrodynamic models, several in shallow and inland seas as well as the global finite-element model FES94.1. This report describes some of the data processing details involved in handling the altimetry, and it provides a comprehensive set of global cotidal charts of the resulting solutions. Various derived tidal charts are also provided, including tidal loading deformation charts, tidal gravimetric charts, and tidal current velocity (or transport) charts. Finally, low-degree spherical harmonic coefficients are computed by numerical quadrature and are tabulated for the major short-period tides; these are useful for a variety of geodetic and geophysical purposes, especially in combination with similar estimates from satellite laser ranging.

Radiation mechanisms and geometry of cygnus X-1 in the soft state

Abstract: We present X-ray/γ-ray spectra of Cyg X-1 observed during the transition from the hard to the soft state and in the soft state by ASCA, RXTE and CGRO/OSSE in 1996 May and June. The spectra consist of a dominant soft component below ∼2 keV and a power-law-like continuum extending to at least ∼800 keV. We interpret them as emission from an optically thick, cold accretion disc and from an optically thin, non-thermal corona above the disc. A fraction f≳0.5 of total available power is dissipated in the corona. We model the soft component by multicolour blackbody disc emission taking into account the torque-free inner-boundary condition. If the disc extends down to the minimum stable orbit, the ASCARXTE data yield the most probable black hole mass of MX≈10 M⊙ and an accretion rate, , locating Cyg X-1 in the soft state in the upper part of the stable, gas-pressure-dominated, accretion-disc solution branch. The spectrum of the corona is well modelled by repeated Compton scattering of seed photons from the disc off electrons with a hybrid, thermal/non-thermal distribution. The electron distribution can be characterized by a Maxwellian with an equilibrium temperature of kTe∼30–50 keV, a Thomson optical depth of τ∼0.3 and a quasi-power-law tail. The compactness of the corona is 2≲lh≲7, and a presence of a significant population of electron–positron pairs is ruled out. We find strong signatures of Compton reflection from a cold and ionized medium, presumably an accretion disc, with an apparent reflector solid angle, Ω/2π∼0.5–0.7. The reflected continuum is accompanied by a broad iron Kα line.

The Laser Vegetation Imaging Sensor: a medium-altitude, digitisation-only, airborne laser altimeter for mapping vegetation and topography

Abstract: The Laser Vegetation Imaging Sensor (LVIS) is an airborne, scanning laser altimeter designed and developed at NASA's Goddard Space Flight Center. LVIS operates at altitudes up to 10 km above ground, and is capable of producing a data swath up to 1000 m wide nominally with 25 m wide footprints. The entire time history of the outgoing and return pulses is digitized, allowing unambiguous determination of range and return pulse structure. Combined with aircraft position and attitude knowledge, this instrument produces topographic maps with decimeter accuracy and vertical height and structure measurements of vegetation. The laser transmitter is a diode-pumped Nd:YAG oscillator producing 1064 nm, 10 nsec, 5 mJ pulses at repetition rates up to 500 Hz. LVIS has recently demonstrated its ability to determine topography (including sub-canopy) and vegetation height and structure on flight missions to various forested regions in the U.S. and Central America. The LVIS system is the airborne simulator for the Vegetation Canopy Lidar (VCL) mission (a NASA Earth remote sensing satellite due for launch in 2000), providing simulated data sets and a platform for instrument proof-of-concept studies. The topography maps and return waveforms produced by LVIS provide Earth scientists with a unique data set allowing studies of topography, hydrology, and vegetation with unmatched accuracy and coverage.

Magnetic lineations in the ancient crust of mars

Abstract: The Mars Global Surveyor spacecraft, in a highly elliptical polar orbit, obtained vector magnetic field measurements above the surface of Mars (altitudes >100 kilometers). Crustal magnetization, mainly confined to the most ancient, heavily cratered martian highlands, is frequently organized in east-west-trending linear features, the longest extending over 2000 kilometers. Crustal remanent magnetization exceeds that of terrestrial crust by more than an order of magnitude. Groups of quasi-parallel linear features of alternating magnetic polarity were found. They are reminiscent of similar magnetic features associated with sea floor spreading and crustal genesis on Earth but with a much larger spatial scale. They may be a relic of an era of plate tectonics on Mars.

The Axisymmetric Pulsar Magnetosphere

Abstract: We present, for the first time, the structure of the axisymmetric force-free magnetosphere of an aligned rotating magnetic dipole, in the case in which there exists a sufficiently large charge density (whose origin we do not question) to satisfy the ideal MHD condition, E B=0, everywhere. The unique distribution of electric current along the open magnetic field lines that is required for the solution to be continuous and smooth is obtained numerically. With the geometry of the field lines thus determined, we compute the dynamics of the associated MHD wind. The main result is that the relativistic outflow contained in the magnetosphere is not accelerated to the extremely relativistic energies required for the flow to generate gamma rays. We expect that our solution will be useful as the starting point for detailed studies of pulsar magnetospheres under more general conditions, namely, when the force-free and/or the ideal MHD condition, E B=0, are not valid in the entire magnetosphere. Based on our solution, we consider that the most likely positions of such an occurrence are the polar cap, the crossings of the zero space charge surface by open field lines, and the return current boundary, but not the light cylinder.

The afterglow, redshift and extreme energetics of the γ-ray burst of 23 January 1999

Abstract: Long-lived emission, known as afterglow, has now been detected from about a dozen γ-ray bursts. Distance determinations place the bursts at cosmological distances, with redshifts, z, ranging from ∼1 to 3. The energy required to produce these bright γ-ray flashes is enormous: up to ∼1053 erg, or 10 per cent of the rest-mass energy of a neutron star, if the emission is isotropic. Here we present optical and near-infrared observations of the afterglow of GRB990123, and we determine a redshift of z ⩾ 1.6. This is to date the brightest γ-ray burst with a well-localized position and if the γ-rays were emitted isotropically, the energy release exceeds the rest-mass energy of a neutron star, so challenging current theoretical models of the sources. We argue, however, that our data may provide evidence of beamed (rather than isotropic) radiation, thereby reducing the total energy released to a level where stellar-death models are still tenable.

Updating and Querying Databases that Track Mobile Units

Abstract: In this paper, we consider databases representing information about moving objects (e.g., vehicles), particularly their location. We address the problems of updating and querying such databases. Specifically, the update problem is to determine when the location of a moving object in the database (namely its database location) should be updated. We answer this question by proposing an information cost model that captures uncertainty, deviation, and communication. Then we analyze dead-reckoning policies, namely policies that update the database location whenever the distance between the actual location and the database location exceeds a given threshold, x. Dead-reckoning is the prevalent approach in military applications, and our cost model enables us to determine the threshold x. We propose several dead-reckoning policies and we compare their performance by simulation. Then we consider the problem of processing range queries in the database. An example of a range query is ‘retrieve the objects that are currently inside a given polygon P′. We propose a probabilistic approach to solve the problem. Namely, the DBMS will answer such a query with a set of objects, each of which is associated with a probability that the object is inside P.

Global Warming and Northern Hemisphere Sea Ice Extent

Abstract: Surface and satellite-based observations show a decrease in Northern Hemisphere sea ice extent during the past 46 years. A comparison of these trends to control and transient integrations (forced by observed greenhouse gases and tropospheric sulfate aerosols) from the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory and Hadley Centre climate models reveals that the observed decrease in Northern Hemisphere sea ice extent agrees with the transient simulations, and both trends are much larger than would be expected from natural climate variations. From long-term control runs of climate models, it was found that the probability of the observed trends resulting from natural climate variability, assuming that the models' natural variability is similar to that found in nature, is less than 2 percent for the 1978-98 sea ice trends and less than 0.1 percent for the 1953-98 sea ice trends. Both models used here project continued decreases in sea ice thickness and extent throughout the next century.