Showing papers by "Goddard Space Flight Center published in 2022"

Global Carbon Budget 2021

Abstract: Abstract. Accurate assessment of anthropogenic carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions and their redistribution among the atmosphere, ocean, and terrestrial biosphere in a changing climate is critical to better understand the global carbon cycle, support the development of climate policies, and project future climate change. Here we describe and synthesize datasets and methodology to quantify the five major components of the global carbon budget and their uncertainties. Fossil CO2 emissions (EFOS) are based on energy statistics and cement production data, while emissions from land-use change (ELUC), mainly deforestation, are based on land use and land-use change data and bookkeeping models. Atmospheric CO2 concentration is measured directly, and its growth rate (GATM) is computed from the annual changes in concentration. The ocean CO2 sink (SOCEAN) is estimated with global ocean biogeochemistry models and observation-based data products. The terrestrial CO2 sink (SLAND) is estimated with dynamic global vegetation models. The resulting carbon budget imbalance (BIM), the difference between the estimated total emissions and the estimated changes in the atmosphere, ocean, and terrestrial biosphere, is a measure of imperfect data and understanding of the contemporary carbon cycle. All uncertainties are reported as ±1σ. For the first time, an approach is shown to reconcile the difference in our ELUC estimate with the one from national greenhouse gas inventories, supporting the assessment of collective countries' climate progress. For the year 2020, EFOS declined by 5.4 % relative to 2019, with fossil emissions at 9.5 ± 0.5 GtC yr−1 (9.3 ± 0.5 GtC yr−1 when the cement carbonation sink is included), and ELUC was 0.9 ± 0.7 GtC yr−1, for a total anthropogenic CO2 emission of 10.2 ± 0.8 GtC yr−1 (37.4 ± 2.9 GtCO2). Also, for 2020, GATM was 5.0 ± 0.2 GtC yr−1 (2.4 ± 0.1 ppm yr−1), SOCEAN was 3.0 ± 0.4 GtC yr−1, and SLAND was 2.9 ± 1 GtC yr−1, with a BIM of −0.8 GtC yr−1. The global atmospheric CO2 concentration averaged over 2020 reached 412.45 ± 0.1 ppm. Preliminary data for 2021 suggest a rebound in EFOS relative to 2020 of +4.8 % (4.2 % to 5.4 %) globally. Overall, the mean and trend in the components of the global carbon budget are consistently estimated over the period 1959–2020, but discrepancies of up to 1 GtC yr−1 persist for the representation of annual to semi-decadal variability in CO2 fluxes. Comparison of estimates from multiple approaches and observations shows (1) a persistent large uncertainty in the estimate of land-use changes emissions, (2) a low agreement between the different methods on the magnitude of the land CO2 flux in the northern extra-tropics, and (3) a discrepancy between the different methods on the strength of the ocean sink over the last decade. This living data update documents changes in the methods and datasets used in this new global carbon budget and the progress in understanding of the global carbon cycle compared with previous publications of this dataset (Friedlingstein et al., 2020, 2019; Le Quéré et al., 2018b, a, 2016, 2015b, a, 2014, 2013). The data presented in this work are available at https://doi.org/10.18160/gcp-2021 (Friedlingstein et al., 2021).

Global Carbon Budget 2022

Abstract: Abstract. Accurate assessment of anthropogenic carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions and their redistribution among the atmosphere, ocean, and terrestrial biosphere in a changing climate is critical to better understand the global carbon cycle, support the development of climate policies, and project future climate change. Here we describe and synthesize data sets and methodologies to quantify the five major components of the global carbon budget and their uncertainties. Fossil CO2 emissions (EFOS) are based on energy statistics and cement production data, while emissions from land-use change (ELUC), mainly deforestation, are based on land use and land-use change data and bookkeeping models. Atmospheric CO2 concentration is measured directly, and its growth rate (GATM) is computed from the annual changes in concentration. The ocean CO2 sink (SOCEAN) is estimated with global ocean biogeochemistry models and observation-based data products. The terrestrial CO2 sink (SLAND) is estimated with dynamic global vegetation models. The resulting carbon budget imbalance (BIM), the difference between the estimated total emissions and the estimated changes in the atmosphere, ocean, and terrestrial biosphere, is a measure of imperfect data and understanding of the contemporary carbon cycle. All uncertainties are reported as ±1σ. For the year 2021, EFOS increased by 5.1 % relative to 2020, with fossil emissions at 10.1 ± 0.5 GtC yr−1 (9.9 ± 0.5 GtC yr−1 when the cement carbonation sink is included), and ELUC was 1.1 ± 0.7 GtC yr−1, for a total anthropogenic CO2 emission (including the cement carbonation sink) of 10.9 ± 0.8 GtC yr−1 (40.0 ± 2.9 GtCO2). Also, for 2021, GATM was 5.2 ± 0.2 GtC yr−1 (2.5 ± 0.1 ppm yr−1), SOCEAN was 2.9 ± 0.4 GtC yr−1, and SLAND was 3.5 ± 0.9 GtC yr−1, with a BIM of −0.6 GtC yr−1 (i.e. the total estimated sources were too low or sinks were too high). The global atmospheric CO2 concentration averaged over 2021 reached 414.71 ± 0.1 ppm. Preliminary data for 2022 suggest an increase in EFOS relative to 2021 of +1.0 % (0.1 % to 1.9 %) globally and atmospheric CO2 concentration reaching 417.2 ppm, more than 50 % above pre-industrial levels (around 278 ppm). Overall, the mean and trend in the components of the global carbon budget are consistently estimated over the period 1959–2021, but discrepancies of up to 1 GtC yr−1 persist for the representation of annual to semi-decadal variability in CO2 fluxes. Comparison of estimates from multiple approaches and observations shows (1) a persistent large uncertainty in the estimate of land-use change emissions, (2) a low agreement between the different methods on the magnitude of the land CO2 flux in the northern extratropics, and (3) a discrepancy between the different methods on the strength of the ocean sink over the last decade. This living data update documents changes in the methods and data sets used in this new global carbon budget and the progress in understanding of the global carbon cycle compared with previous publications of this data set. The data presented in this work are available at https://doi.org/10.18160/GCP-2022 (Friedlingstein et al., 2022b).

A New Model of Jupiter's Magnetic Field at the Completion of Juno's Prime Mission

Abstract: A spherical harmonic model of the magnetic field of Jupiter is obtained from vector magnetic field observations acquired by the Juno spacecraft during 32 of its first 33 polar orbits. These Prime Mission orbits sample Jupiter's magnetic field nearly uniformly in longitude (∼11° separation) as measured at equator crossing. The planetary magnetic field is represented with a degree 30 spherical harmonic and the external field is approximated near the origin with a simple external spherical harmonic of degree 1. Partial solution of the underdetermined inverse problem using generalized inverse techniques yields a model (“JRM33”) of the planetary magnetic field with spherical harmonic coefficients reasonably well determined through degree and order 13. Useful information regarding the field extends through degree 18, well fit by a Lowes' spectrum with a dynamo core radius of 0.81 Rj, presumably the outer radius of the convective metallic hydrogen region. This new model provides a most detailed view of a planetary dynamo and evidence of advection of the magnetic field by deep zonal winds in the vicinity of the Great Blue Spot (GBS), an isolated and intense patch of flux near Jupiter's equator. Comparison of the JRM33 and JRM09 models suggests secular variation of the field in the vicinity of the GBS during Juno's nearly 5 years of operation in orbit about Jupiter. The observed secular variation is consistent with the penetration of zonal winds to a depth of ∼3,500 km where a flow velocity of ∼0.04 ms−1 is required to match the observations.

Data-driven Expectations for Electromagnetic Counterpart Searches Based on LIGO/Virgo Public Alerts

Abstract: Searches for electromagnetic counterparts of gravitational-wave signals have redoubled since the first detection in 2017 of a binary neutron star merger with a gamma-ray burst, optical/infrared kilonova, and panchromatic afterglow. Yet, one LIGO/Virgo observing run later, there has not yet been a second, secure identification of an electromagnetic counterpart. This is not surprising given that the localization uncertainties of events in LIGO and Virgo's third observing run, O3, were much larger than predicted. We explain this by showing that improvements in data analysis that now allow LIGO/Virgo to detect weaker and hence more poorly localized events have increased the overall number of detections, of which well-localized, gold-plated events make up a smaller proportion overall. We present simulations of the next two LIGO/Virgo/KAGRA observing runs, O4 and O5, that are grounded in the statistics of O3 public alerts. To illustrate the significant impact that the updated predictions can have, we study the follow-up strategy for the Zwicky Transient Facility. Realistic and timely forecasting of gravitational-wave localization accuracy is paramount given the large commitments of telescope time and the need to prioritize which events are followed up. We include a data release of our simulated localizations as a public proposal planning resource for astronomers.

Comparing national greenhouse gas budgets reported in UNFCCC inventories against atmospheric inversions

Abstract: Abstract. In support of the global stocktake of the Paris Agreement on climate change, this study presents a comprehensive framework to process the results of an ensemble of atmospheric inversions in order to make their net ecosystem exchange (NEE) carbon dioxide (CO2) flux suitable for evaluating national greenhouse gas inventories (NGHGIs) submitted by countries to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC). From inversions we also deduced anthropogenic methane (CH4) emissions regrouped into fossil and agriculture and waste emissions, as well as anthropogenic nitrous oxide (N2O) emissions. To compare inversion results with national reports, we compiled a new global harmonized database of emissions and removals from periodical UNFCCC inventories by Annex I countries, and from sporadic and less detailed emissions reports by non-Annex I countries, given by national communications and biennial update reports. No gap filling was applied. The method to reconcile inversions with inventories is applied to selected large countries covering ∼90 % of the global land carbon uptake for CO2 and top emitters of CH4 and N2O. Our method uses results from an ensemble of global inversions produced by the Global Carbon Project for the three greenhouse gases, with ancillary data. We examine the role of CO2 fluxes caused by lateral transfer processes from rivers and from trade in crop and wood products and the role of carbon uptake in unmanaged lands, both not accounted for by NGHGIs. Here we show that, despite a large spread across the inversions, the median of available inversion models points to a larger terrestrial carbon sink than inventories over temperate countries or groups of countries of the Northern Hemisphere like Russia, Canada and the European Union. For CH4, we find good consistency between the inversions assimilating only data from the global in situ network and those using satellite CH4 retrievals and a tendency for inversions to diagnose higher CH4 emission estimates than reported by NGHGIs. In particular, oil- and gas-extracting countries in central Asia and the Persian Gulf region tend to systematically report lower emissions compared to those estimated by inversions. For N2O, inversions tend to produce higher anthropogenic emissions than inventories for tropical countries, even when attempting to consider only managed land emissions. In the inventories of many non-Annex I countries, this can be tentatively attributed to a lack of reporting indirect N2O emissions from atmospheric deposition and from leaching to rivers, to the existence of natural sources intertwined with managed lands, or to an underestimation of N2O emission factors for direct agricultural soil emissions. Inversions provide insights into seasonal and interannual greenhouse gas fluxes anomalies, e.g., during extreme events such as drought or abnormal fire episodes, whereas inventory methods are established to estimate trends and multi-annual changes. As a much denser sampling of atmospheric CO2 and CH4 concentrations by different satellites coordinated into a global constellation is expected in the coming years, the methodology proposed here to compare inversion results with inventory reports (e.g., NGHGIs) could be applied regularly for monitoring the effectiveness of mitigation policy and progress by countries to meet the objective of their pledges. The dataset constructed by this study is publicly available at https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.5089799 (Deng et al., 2021).

LAGER Lyα Luminosity Function at z ∼ 7: Implications for Reionization

Abstract: Abstract We present a new measurement of the Ly α luminosity function (LF) at redshift z = 6.9, finding moderate evolution from z = 5.7 that is consistent with a fully or largely ionized z ∼ 7 intergalactic medium. Our result is based on four fields of the LAGER (Lyman Alpha Galaxies in the Epoch of Reionization) project. Our survey volume of 6.1 × 10 6 Mpc 3 is double that of the next largest z ∼ 7 survey. We combine two new LAGER fields (WIDE12 and GAMA15A) with two previously reported LAGER fields (COSMOS and CDFS). In the new fields, we identify N = 95 new z = 6.9 Ly α emitter (LAEs) candidates, characterize our survey’s completeness and reliability, and compute Ly α LFs. The best-fit Schechter LF parameters for all four LAGER fields are in good general agreement. Two fields (COSMOS and WIDE12) show evidence for a bright-end excess above the Schechter function fit. We find that the Ly α luminosity density declines at the same rate as the UV continuum LF from z = 5.7 to 6.9. This is consistent with an intergalactic medium that was fully ionized as early as redshift z ∼ 7 or with a volume-averaged neutral hydrogen fraction of x H I < 0.33 at 1 σ .

The TRAPPIST-1 Habitable Atmosphere Intercomparison (THAI). II. Moist Cases—The Two Waterworlds

Abstract: To identify promising exoplanets for atmospheric characterization and to make the best use of observational data, a thorough understanding of their atmospheres is needed. 3D general circulation models (GCMs) are one of the most comprehensive tools available for this task and will be used to interpret observations of temperate rocky exoplanets. Due to parameterization choices made in GCMs, they can produce different results, even for the same planet. Employing four widely-used exoplanetary GCMs -- ExoCAM, LMD-G, ROCKE-3D and the UM -- we continue the TRAPPIST-1 Habitable Atmosphere Intercomparison by modeling aquaplanet climates of TRAPPIST-1e with a moist atmosphere dominated by either nitrogen or carbon dioxide. Although the GCMs disagree on the details of the simulated regimes, they all predict a temperate climate with neither of the two cases pushed out of the habitable state. Nevertheless, the inter-model spread in the global mean surface temperature is non-negligible: 14 K and 24 K in the nitrogen and carbon dioxide dominated case, respectively. We find substantial inter-model differences in moist variables, with the smallest amount of clouds in LMD-Generic and the largest in ROCKE-3D. ExoCAM predicts the warmest climate for both cases and thus has the highest water vapor content and the largest amount and variability of cloud condensate. The UM tends to produce colder conditions, especially in the nitrogen-dominated case due to a strong negative cloud radiative effect on the day side of TRAPPIST-1e. Our study highlights various biases of GCMs and emphasizes the importance of not relying solely on one model to understand exoplanet climates.

An Overview of ARTMIP's Tier 2 Reanalysis Intercomparison: Uncertainty in the Detection of Atmospheric Rivers and Their Associated Precipitation

Abstract: Atmospheric rivers, or long but narrow regions of enhanced water vapor transport, are an important component of the hydrologic cycle as they are responsible for much of the poleward transport of water vapor and result in precipitation, sometimes extreme in intensity. Despite their importance, much uncertainty remains in the detection of atmospheric rivers in large datasets such as reanalyses and century scale climate simulations. To understand this uncertainty, the Atmospheric River Tracking Method Intercomparison Project (ARTMIP) developed tiered experiments, including the Tier 2 Reanalysis Intercomparison that is presented here. Eleven detection algorithms submitted hourly tags--binary fields indicating the presence or absence of atmospheric rivers--of detected atmospheric rivers in the Modern Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications, version 2 (MERRA-2) and European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts’ Reanalysis Version 5 (ERA5) as well as six-hourly tags in the Japanese 55-year Reanalysis (JRA-55). Due to a higher climatological mean for integrated water vapor transport in MERRA-2, atmospheric rivers were detected more frequently relative to the other two reanalyses, particularly in algorithms that use a fixed threshold for water vapor transport. The finer horizontal resolution of ERA5 resulted in narrower atmospheric rivers and an ability to detect atmospheric rivers along resolved coastlines. The fraction of hemispheric area covered by ARs varies throughout the year in all three reanalyses, with different atmospheric river detection tools having different seasonal cycles. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

Definitions and methods to estimate regional land carbon fluxes for the second phase of the REgional Carbon Cycle Assessment and Processes Project (RECCAP-2)

Abstract: Abstract. Regional land carbon budgets provide insights into the spatial distribution of the land uptake of atmospheric carbon dioxide and can be used to evaluate carbon cycle models and to define baselines for land-based additional mitigation efforts. The scientific community has been involved in providing observation-based estimates of regional carbon budgets either by downscaling atmospheric CO2 observations into surface fluxes with atmospheric inversions, by using inventories of carbon stock changes in terrestrial ecosystems, by upscaling local field observations such as flux towers with gridded climate and remote sensing fields, or by integrating data-driven or process-oriented terrestrial carbon cycle models. The first coordinated attempt to collect regional carbon budgets for nine regions covering the entire globe in the RECCAP-1 project has delivered estimates for the decade 2000–2009, but these budgets were not comparable between regions due to different definitions and component fluxes being reported or omitted. The recent recognition of lateral fluxes of carbon by human activities and rivers that connect CO2 uptake in one area with its release in another also requires better definitions and protocols to reach harmonized regional budgets that can be summed up to a globe scale and compared with the atmospheric CO2 growth rate and inversion results. In this study, using the international initiative RECCAP-2 coordinated by the Global Carbon Project, which aims to be an update to regional carbon budgets over the last 2 decades based on observations for 10 regions covering the globe with a better harmonization than the precursor project, we provide recommendations for using atmospheric inversion results to match bottom-up carbon accounting and models, and we define the different component fluxes of the net land atmosphere carbon exchange that should be reported by each research group in charge of each region. Special attention is given to lateral fluxes, inland water fluxes, and land use fluxes.

Newly identified climatically and environmentally significant high-latitude dust sources

Abstract: Abstract. Dust particles from high latitudes have a potentially large local, regional, and global significance to climate and the environment as short-lived climate forcers, air pollutants, and nutrient sources. Identifying the locations of local dust sources and their emission, transport, and deposition processes is important for understanding the multiple impacts of high-latitude dust (HLD) on the Earth's systems. Here, we identify, describe, and quantify the source intensity (SI) values, which show the potential of soil surfaces for dust emission scaled to values 0 to 1 concerning globally best productive sources, using the Global Sand and Dust Storms Source Base Map (G-SDS-SBM). This includes 64 HLD sources in our collection for the northern (Alaska, Canada, Denmark, Greenland, Iceland, Svalbard, Sweden, and Russia) and southern (Antarctica and Patagonia) high latitudes. Activity from most of these HLD sources shows seasonal character. It is estimated that high-latitude land areas with higher (SI ≥0.5), very high (SI ≥0.7), and the highest potential (SI ≥0.9) for dust emission cover >1 670 000 km2, >560 000 km2, and >240 000 km2, respectively. In the Arctic HLD region (≥60∘ N), land area with SI ≥0.5 is 5.5 % (1 035 059 km2), area with SI ≥0.7 is 2.3 % (440 804 km2), and area with SI ≥0.9 is 1.1 % (208 701 km2). Minimum SI values in the northern HLD region are about 3 orders of magnitude smaller, indicating that the dust sources of this region greatly depend on weather conditions. Our spatial dust source distribution analysis modeling results showed evidence supporting a northern HLD belt, defined as the area north of 50∘ N, with a “transitional HLD-source area” extending at latitudes 50–58∘ N in Eurasia and 50–55∘ N in Canada and a “cold HLD-source area” including areas north of 60∘ N in Eurasia and north of 58∘ N in Canada, with currently “no dust source” area between the HLD and low-latitude dust (LLD) dust belt, except for British Columbia. Using the global atmospheric transport model SILAM, we estimated that 1.0 % of the global dust emission originated from the high-latitude regions. About 57 % of the dust deposition in snow- and ice-covered Arctic regions was from HLD sources. In the southern HLD region, soil surface conditions are favorable for dust emission during the whole year. Climate change can cause a decrease in the duration of snow cover, retreat of glaciers, and an increase in drought, heatwave intensity, and frequency, leading to the increasing frequency of topsoil conditions favorable for dust emission, which increases the probability of dust storms. Our study provides a step forward to improve the representation of HLD in models and to monitor, quantify, and assess the environmental and climate significance of HLD.

Use of real‐time artificial intelligence in detection of abnormal image patterns in standard sonographic reference planes in screening for fetal intracranial malformations

Abstract: To develop and validate an artificial intelligence system, the Prenatal ultrasound diagnosis Artificial Intelligence Conduct System (PAICS), to detect different patterns of fetal intracranial abnormality in standard sonographic reference planes for screening for congenital central nervous system (CNS) malformations.Neurosonographic images from normal fetuses and fetuses with CNS malformations at 18-40 gestational weeks were retrieved from the databases of two tertiary hospitals in China and assigned randomly (ratio, 8:1:1) to training, fine-tuning and internal validation datasets to develop and evaluate the PAICS. The system was built based on a real-time convolutional neural network (CNN) algorithm, You Only Look Once, version 3 (YOLOv3). An image dataset from a third tertiary hospital was used to further validate, externally, the performance of the PAICS and to compare its performance with that of sonologists with different levels of expertise. Furthermore, a prospective video dataset was employed to evaluate the performance of the PAICS in a real-time scan scenario. The diagnostic accuracy, sensitivity, specificity and area under the receiver-operating-characteristics curve (AUC) were calculated to assess the performance of the PAICS and to compare this with the performance of sonologists with different levels of experience.In total, 43 890 images from 16 297 pregnancies and 169 videos from 166 pregnancies were used to develop and validate the PAICS. The system achieved excellent performance in identifying 10 types of intracranial image pattern, with macro- and microaverage AUCs, respectively, of 0.933 (95% CI, 0.798-1.000) and 0.977 (95% CI, 0.970-0.985) for the internal validation image dataset, 0.902 (95% CI, 0.816-0.989) and 0.898 (95% CI, 0.885-0.911) for the external validation image dataset and 0.969 (95% CI, 0.886-1.000) and 0.981 (95% CI, 0.974-0.988) in the real-time scan setting. The performance of the PAICS was comparable to that of expert sonologists in terms of macro- and microaverage accuracy (P = 0.863 and P = 0.775, respectively), sensitivity (P = 0.883, P = 0.846) and AUC (P = 0.891, P = 0.788), but required significantly less time (0.025 s per image for PAICS vs 4.4 s for experts, P < 0.001).Both in the image dataset and in the real-time scan setting, the PAICS achieved excellent diagnostic performance for various fetal CNS abnormalities. Its performance was comparable to that of experts, but it required less time. A CNN algorithm can be trained to detect fetal CNS abnormalities. The PAICS has the potential to be an effective and efficient tool in screening for fetal CNS malformations in clinical practice. © 2021 International Society of Ultrasound in Obstetrics and Gynecology.

Declines and peaks in NO&amp;lt;sub&amp;gt;2&amp;lt;/sub&amp;gt; pollution during the multiple waves of the COVID-19 pandemic in the New York metropolitan area

Abstract: The COVID-19 pandemic created an extreme natural experiment in which sudden changes in human behavior and economic activity resulted in significant declines in nitrogen oxide (NO x ) emissions, immediately after strict lockdowns were imposed. Here we examined the impact of multiple waves and response phases of the pandemic on nitrogen dioxide (NO2) dynamics and the role of meteorology in shaping relative contributions from different emission sectors to NO2 pollution in post-pandemic New York City. Long term (> 3.5 years), high frequency measurements from a network of ground-based Pandora spectrometers were combined with TROPOMI satellite retrievals, meteorological data, mobility trends, and atmospheric transport model simulations to quantify changes in NO2 across the New York metropolitan area. The stringent lockdown measures after the first pandemic wave resulted in a decline in top-down NO x emissions by approx. 30% on top of long-term trends, in agreement with sector-specific changes in NO x emissions. Ground-based measurements showed a sudden drop in total column NO2 in spring 2020, by up to 36% in Manhattan and 19%-29% in Queens, New Jersey (NJ), and Connecticut (CT), and a clear weakening (by 16%) of the typical weekly NO2 cycle. Extending our analysis to more than a year after the initial lockdown captured a gradual recovery in NO2 across the NY/NJ/CT tri-state area in summer and fall 2020, as social restrictions eased, followed by a second decline in NO2 coincident with the second wave of the pandemic and resurgence of lockdown measures in winter 2021. Meteorology was not found to have a strong NO2 biassing effect in New York City after the first pandemic wave. Winds, however, were favorable for low NO2 conditions in Manhattan during the second wave of the pandemic, resulting in larger column NO2 declines than expected based on changes in transportation emissions alone. Meteorology played a key role in shaping the relative contributions from different emission sectors to NO with low-speed (< 5 ms-1) SW-SE winds enhancing contributions from the high-emitting power-generation sector in NJ and Queens and driving particularly high NO2 pollution episodes in Manhattan, even during - and despite - the stringent early lockdowns. These results have important implications for air quality management in New York City, and highlight the value of high resolution NO2 measurements in assessing the effects of rapid meteorological changes on air quality conditions and the effectiveness of sector-specific NO x emission control strategies.

Intense Equatorial Electrojet and Counter Electrojet Caused by the 15 January 2022 Tonga Volcanic Eruption: Space‐ and Ground‐Based Observations

Abstract: We present space- and ground-based multi-instrument observations demonstrating the impact of the 2022 Tonga volcanic eruption on dayside equatorial electrodynamics. A strong counter electrojet (CEJ) was observed by Swarm and ground-based magnetometers on 15 January after the Tonga eruption and during the recovery phase of a moderate geomagnetic storm. Swarm also observed an enhanced equatorial electrojet (EEJ) preceding the CEJ in the previous orbit. The observed EEJ and CEJ exhibited complex spatiotemporal variations. We combine them with the Ionospheric Connection Explorer neutral wind measurements to disentangle the potential mechanisms. Our analysis indicates that the geomagnetic storm had minimal impact; instead, a large-scale atmospheric disturbance propagating eastward from the Tonga eruption site was the most likely driver for the observed intensification and directional reversal of the equatorial electrojet. The CEJ was associated with strong eastward zonal winds in the E-region ionosphere, as a direct response to the lower atmosphere forcing.

Dual Laser Indium Phosphide Photonic Integrated Circuit for Integrated Path Differential Absorption Lidar

Abstract: An indium phosphide photonic integrated circuit (PIC) was demonstrated for integrated path differential absorption lidar of atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2). The PIC consists of two widely tunable sampled grating distributed Bragg reflector (SGDBR) lasers, directional couplers, a phase modulator, a photodiode, and semiconductor optical amplifiers (SOAs). One SGDBR laser, the leader, is locked to the center of an absorption line at 1572.335 nm using the on-chip phase modulator and a bench-top CO2 Herriott reference cell. The other SGDBR laser, the follower, is stepped in frequency over ±15 GHz around 1572.335 nm to scan the target CO2 absorption line. The follower laser is offset locked to the leader laser with an optical phase lock loop. An SOA after the follower laser generates a pulse at each frequency step to create a train of pulses that samples the target CO2 absorption line. The PIC components and subsystem are characterized and evaluated based on target performance requirements. The leader laser demonstrated a 236-fold improvement in frequency stability standard deviation when locked compared to free running and the follower laser frequency stability standard deviation compared to the leader laser was 37.6 KHz at a 2 GHz programmed offset.

The Deuterium Isotopic Ratio of Water Released From the Martian Caps as Measured With TGO/NOMAD

Abstract: We report vertical profiles of water and D/H for one Martian year as measured with the TGO/NOMAD instrument. The observations were performed via solar occultation, providing water profiles up to ∼100 km and D/H up to ∼60 km, with a vertical resolution of 1–2 km. The measurements reveal dramatic variability of water and D/H over short timescales and with altitude and location on the planet. We investigated the release of seasonal water from the polar caps during southern and northern summer, by mapping water and its D/H near the polar regions. Above the hygropause, the D/H drops substantially below 2 VSMOW, and both seasonal polar caps show a consistent and enriched D/H of 5–7 VSMOW within the hygrosphere.

Evolved Gas Analyses of Sedimentary Rocks From the Glen Torridon Clay‐Bearing Unit, Gale Crater, Mars: Results From the Mars Science Laboratory Sample Analysis at Mars Instrument Suite

Abstract: Evolved gas analysis (EGA) data from the Sample Analysis at Mars (SAM) instrument suite indicated Fe-rich smectite, carbonate, oxidized organics, Fe/Mg sulfate, and chloride in sedimentary rocks from the Glen Torridon (GT) region of Gale crater that displayed phyllosilicate spectral signatures from orbit. SAM evolved H2O data indicated that the primary phyllosilicate in all GT samples was an Fe-rich dioctahedral smectite (e.g., nontronite) with lesser amounts of a phyllosilicate such as mixed layer talc-serpentine or greenalite-minnesotaite. CO2 data supported the identification of siderite in several samples, and CO2 and CO data was also consistent with trace oxidized organic compounds such as oxalate salts. SO2 data indicated trace and/or amorphous Fe sulfates in all samples and one sample may contain Fe sulfides. SO2 data points to significant Mg sulfates in two samples, and lesser amounts in several other samples. A lack of evolved O2 indicated the absence of oxychlorine salts and Mn3+/ Mn4+ oxides. The lack of, or very minor, evolved NO revealed absent or very trace nitrate/nitrite salts. HCl data suggested chloride salts in GT samples. Constraints from EGA data on mineralogy and chemistry indicated that the environmental history of GT involved alteration with fluids of variable redox potential, chemistry and pH under a range of fluid-to-rock ratio conditions. Several of the fluid episodes could have provided habitable environmental conditions and carbon would have been available to any past microbes though the lack of significant N could have been a limiting factor for microbial habitability in the GT region.

Gallium Arsenide Photonic Integrated Circuit Platform for Tunable Laser Applications

Abstract: An active-passive integration technique for operation near a wavelength of 1030 nm has been developed on a gallium arsenide (GaAs) photonic integrated circuit platform. The technique leverages quantum wells (QWs) that are slightly offset vertically from the center of the waveguide, and selectively removed prior to upper cladding regrowth to form active and passive regions. The active region consists of indium gallium arsenide (InGaAs) QWs, gallium arsenide phosphide (GaAsP) barriers, GaAs separate confinement heterostructure layers, and aluminum gallium arsenide (AlGaAs) cladding. Fabry Perot lasers with various widths were fabricated and characterized, exhibiting high injection efficiency of 98.8%, internal active loss of 3.44 cm−1, and internal passive loss of 4.05 cm−1 for 3 μm wide waveguides. The 3 μm, 4 μm, and 5 μm wide lasers demonstrated greater than 50 mW output power at 100 mA continuous wave (CW) current and threshold current as low as 9 mA. 20 μm wide broad area lasers demonstrated 240 mW output power, 35.2 mA threshold current under CW operation, and low threshold current density of 94 A/cm2 for 2 mm long lasers. Additionally, these devices exhibit transparency current density of 85 A/cm2 and good thermal characteristics with T 0 = 205 K, and Tη = 577K.

A Statistical Investigation of Factors Influencing the Magnetotail Twist at Mars

Abstract: The Martian magnetotail exhibits a highly twisted configuration, shifting in response to changes in polarity of the interplanetary magnetic field's (IMF) dawn-dusk (BY) component. Here, we analyze ∼6000 MAVEN orbits to quantify the degree of magnetotail twisting (θTwist) and assess variations as a function of (a) strong planetary crustal field location, (b) Mars season, and (c) downtail distance. The results demonstrate that θTwist is larger for a duskward (+BY) IMF orientation a majority of the time. This preference is likely due to the local orientation of crustal magnetic fields across the surface of Mars, where a +BY IMF orientation presents ideal conditions for magnetic reconnection to occur. Additionally, we observe an increase in θTwist with downtail distance, similar to Earth's magnetotail. These findings suggest that coupling between the IMF and moderate-to-weak crustal field regions may play a major role in determining the magnetospheric structure at Mars.

On Differentiating Multiple Types of ULF Magnetospheric Waves in Response to Solar Wind Periodic Density Structures

Abstract: Identifying the nature and source of ultra-low frequencies (ULF) waves (f ⪅ 4 mHz) at discrete frequencies in the Earth's magnetosphere is a complex task. The challenge comes from the simultaneous occurrence of externally and internally generated waves, and the ability to robustly identify such perturbations. Using a recently developed robust spectral analysis procedure, we study an interval that exhibited in magnetic field measurements at geosynchronous orbit and in-ground magnetic observatories both internally supported and externally generated ULF waves. The event occurred on 9 November 2002 during the interaction of the magnetosphere with two interplanetary shocks that were followed by a train of 90 min solar wind periodic density structures. Using the Wang-Sheeley-Arge model, we mapped the source of this solar wind stream to an active region and a mid-latitude coronal hole just prior to crossing the Heliospheric current sheet. In both the solar wind density and magnetospheric field fluctuations, we separated broad power increases from enhancements at specific frequencies. For the waves at discrete frequencies, we used the combination of satellite and ground magnetometer observations to identify differences in frequency, polarization, and observed magnetospheric locations. The magnetospheric response was characterized by: (a) forced breathing by periodic solar wind dynamic pressure variations below ≈1 mHz, (b) a combination of directly driven oscillations and wave modes triggered by additional mechanisms (e.g., shock and interplanetary magnetic field discontinuity impact, and substorm activity) between ≈1 and 4 mHz, and (c) largely triggered modes above ≈4 mHz.

Identifying Hydro‐Sensitive Coral δ ¹⁸ O Records for Improved High‐Resolution Temperature and Salinity Reconstructions

Abstract: Stable oxygen isotopic ratios in corals (δ18Ocoral) are commonly utilized to reconstruct climate variability beyond the limit of instrumental observations. These measurements provide constraints on past seawater temperature, due to the thermodynamics of isotopic fractionation, but also past salinity, as both salinity and seawater δ18O (δ18Osw) are similarly affected by precipitation/evaporation, advection, and other processes. We use historical observations, isotope-enabled model simulations, and the PAGES Iso2k database to assess the potential of δ18Ocoral to provide information on past salinity. Using ‘‘pseudocorals’’ to represent δ18Ocoral as a function of observed or simulated temperature and salinity/δ18Osw, we find that δ18Osw contributes up to 89% of δ18Ocoral variability in the Western Pacific Warm Pool. Although uncertainty in the δ18Osw-salinity relationship influences the inferred salinity variability, corals from these sites could provide valuable δ18Osw reconstructions. Coordinated in situ monitoring of salinity and δ18Osw is vital for improving estimates of hydroclimatic change.

Deciphering Solar Magnetic Activity: The Solar Cycle Clock

Abstract: The Sun’s variability is controlled by the progression and interaction of the magnetized systems that form the 22-year magnetic activity cycle (the “Hale Cycle”) as they march from their origin at ∼55° latitude to the equator, over ∼19 years. We will discuss the end point of that progression, dubbed “terminator” events, and our means of diagnosing them. In this paper we expand on the Extended Solar Cycle framework to construct a new solar activity “clock” which maps all solar magnetic activity onto a single normalized epoch based on the terminations of Hale Magnetic Cycles. Defining phase 0*2 π on this clock as the Terminators, then solar polar field reversals occur at ∼ 0.2*2 π , and the geomagnetically quiet intervals centered around solar minimum start at ∼ 0.6*2 π and end at the terminator, thus lasting 40% of the cycle length. At this onset of quiescence, dubbed a “pre-terminator,” the Sun shows a radical reduction in active region complexity and, like the terminator events, is associated with the time when the solar radio flux crosses F10.7 = 90 sfu. We use the terminator-based clock to illustrate a range of phenomena that further emphasize the strong interaction of the global-scale magnetic systems of the Hale Cycle: the vast majority, 96%, of all X-flares happen between the Terminator and pre-Terminator. In addition to the X-rays from violent flares, rapid changes in the number of energetic photons—EUV spectral emission from a hot corona and the F10.7 solar radio flux—impinging on the atmosphere are predictable from the Terminator-normalized unit cycle, which has implications for improving the fidelity of atmospheric modelling.

Sedimentary Organics in Glen Torridon, Gale Crater, Mars: Results From the SAM Instrument Suite and Supporting Laboratory Analyses

Abstract: The Sample Analysis at Mars (SAM) suite instrument on board NASA's Curiosity rover has characterized the inorganic and organic chemical composition of seven samples from the Glen Torridon (GT) clay-bearing unit. A variety of organic molecules were detected with SAM using pyrolysis (up to ∼850°C) and wet chemistry experiments coupled with evolved gas analysis (EGA) and gas chromatography-mass spectrometry. SAM EGA and GCMS analyses revealed a greater diversity and abundance of sulfur-bearing aliphatic and aromatic organic compounds in the sediments of this Gale crater unit than earlier in the mission. We also report the detection of nitrogen-containing, oxygen-containing, and chlorine-containing molecules, as well as polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons found in GT, although the sources of some of these organics may be related to the presence of chemical reagents in the SAM instrument background. However, sulfur-bearing organics released at high temperature (≥600°C) are likely derived from Martian sources (e.g., igneous, hydrothermal, atmospheric, or biological) or exogenous sources and consistent with the presence of recalcitrant organic materials in the sample. The SAM measurements of the GT clay-bearing unit expand the inventory of organic matter present in Gale crater and is also consistent with the hypothesis that clay minerals played an important role in the preservation of ancient refractory organic matter on Mars. These findings deepen our understanding of the past habitability and biological potential of Gale crater.

A new method for inferring city emissions and lifetimes of nitrogen oxides from high-resolution nitrogen dioxide observations: a model study

Abstract: Abstract. We present a new method to infer emissions and lifetimes of nitrogen oxides (NOx) based on tropospheric nitrogen dioxide (NO2) observations together with reanalysis wind fields for cities located in polluted backgrounds. Since the accuracy of the method is difficult to assess due to lack of “true values” that can be used as a benchmark, we apply the method to synthetic NO2 observations derived from the NASA-Unified Weather Research and Forecasting (NU-WRF) model at a high horizontal spatial resolution of 4 km × 4 km for cities over the continental United States. We compare the inferred emissions and lifetimes with the values given by the NU-WRF model to evaluate the method. The method is applicable to 26 US cities. The derived results are generally in good agreement with the values given by the model, with the relative differences of 2 % ± 17 % (mean ± standard deviation) and 15 % ± 25 % for lifetimes and emissions, respectively. Our investigation suggests that the use of wind data prior to the satellite overpass time improves the performance of the method. The correlation coefficients between inferred and NU-WRF lifetimes increase from 0.56 to 0.79 and for emissions increase from 0.88 to 0.96 when comparing results based on wind fields sampled simultaneously with satellite observations and averaged over 9 h data prior to satellite observations, respectively. We estimate that uncertainties in NOx lifetime and emissions arising from the method are approximately 15 % and 20 %, respectively, for typical (US) cities. The total uncertainties reach up to 43 % (lifetimes) and 45 % (emissions) by considering the additional uncertainties associated with satellite NO2 observations and wind data. We expect this new method to be applicable to NO2 observations from the TROPOspheric Monitoring Instrument (TROPOMI) and geostationary satellites, such as Geostationary Environment Monitoring Spectrometer (GEMS) or the Tropospheric Emissions: Monitoring Pollution (TEMPO) instrument, to estimate urban NOx emissions and lifetimes globally.