Showing papers by "Hanoi School Of Public Health published in 2021"
Seoul National University1, Harvard University2, Hanoi School Of Public Health3, Boston University4, University of Auckland5, Medical University of the Americas – Nevis6, Columbia University7, National Taiwan University8, Kyoto University9, City University of New York10, Stockholm University11, University of Bergen12, University of Southern California13, University of Sydney14, Free University of Berlin15, University of Geneva16, Yonsei University17, Georgetown University18, Hanoi Medical University19, New Generation University College20, University of London21
TL;DR: In this article, the authors examined the association between changes in mobility and the ratio of the newly confirmed cases on a given day to the total number of cases over the past 14 days from the index day (the potentially infective 'pool' in that population), per million population, using LOESS regression and logit regression.
Abstract: Most countries have implemented restrictions on mobility to prevent the spread of Coronavirus disease-19 (COVID-19), entailing considerable societal costs but, at least initially, based on limited evidence of effectiveness. We asked whether mobility restrictions were associated with changes in the occurrence of COVID-19 in 34 OECD countries plus Singapore and Taiwan. Our data sources were the Google Global Mobility Data Source, which reports different types of mobility, and COVID-19 cases retrieved from the dataset curated by Our World in Data. Beginning at each country's 100th case, and incorporating a 14-day lag to account for the delay between exposure and illness, we examined the association between changes in mobility (with January 3 to February 6, 2020 as baseline) and the ratio of the number of newly confirmed cases on a given day to the total number of cases over the past 14 days from the index day (the potentially infective 'pool' in that population), per million population, using LOESS regression and logit regression. In two-thirds of examined countries, reductions of up to 40% in commuting mobility (to workplaces, transit stations, retailers, and recreation) were associated with decreased cases, especially early in the pandemic. Once both mobility and incidence had been brought down, further restrictions provided little additional benefit. These findings point to the importance of acting early and decisively in a pandemic.
37 citations