Showing papers by "Indonesian Institute of Sciences published in 2014"

Energy Management of Fuel Cell/Battery/Supercapacitor Hybrid Power Sources Using Model Predictive Control

Abstract: Well known as an efficient and eco-friendly power source, fuel cell, unfortunately, offers slow dynamics. When attached as primary energy source in a vehicle, fuel cell would not be able to respond to abrupt load variations. Supplementing battery and/or supercapacitor to the system will provide a solution to this shortcoming. On the other hand, a current regulation that is vital for lengthening time span of the energy storage system is needed. This can be accomplished by keeping fuel cell's and batteries' current slope in reference to certain values, as well as attaining a stable dc output voltage. For that purpose, a feedback control system for regulating the hybrid of fuel cell, batteries, and supercapacitor was constructed for this study. Output voltage of the studied hybrid power sources (HPS) was administered by assembling three dc-dc converters comprising two bidirectional converters and one boost converter. Current/voltage output of fuel cell was regulated by boost converter, whereas the bidirectional converters regulated battery and supercapacitor. Reference current for each converter was produced using Model Predictive Control (MPC) and subsequently tracked using hysteresis control. These functions were done on a controller board of a dSPACE DS1104. Subsequently, on a test bench made up from 6 V, 4.5 Ah battery and 7.5 V, 120 F supercapacitor together with a fuel cell of 50 W, 10 A, experiment was conducted. Results show that constructing a control system to restrict fuel cell's and batteries' current slope and maintaining dc bus voltage in accordance with the reference values using MPC was feasible and effectively done.

Sulfate was a trace constituent of Archean seawater

Abstract: In the low-oxygen Archean world (>2400 million years ago), seawater sulfate concentrations were much lower than today, yet open questions frustrate the translation of modern measurements of sulfur isotope fractionations into estimates of Archean seawater sulfate concentrations In the water column of Lake Matano, Indonesia, a low-sulfate analog for the Archean ocean, we find large (>20 per mil) sulfur isotope fractionations between sulfate and sulfide, but the underlying sediment sulfides preserve a muted range of δ^(34)S values Using models informed by sulfur cycling in Lake Matano, we infer Archean seawater sulfate concentrations of less than 25 micromolar At these low concentrations, marine sulfate residence times were likely 10^3 to 10^4 years, and sulfate scarcity would have shaped early global biogeochemical cycles, possibly restricting biological productivity in Archean oceans

A review on optimization production and upgrading biogas through CO2 removal using various techniques.

Abstract: Biogas from anaerobic digestion of organic materials is a renewable energy resource that consists mainly of CH4 and CO2. Trace components that are often present in biogas are water vapor, hydrogen sulfide, siloxanes, hydrocarbons, ammonia, oxygen, carbon monoxide, and nitrogen. Considering the biogas is a clean and renewable form of energy that could well substitute the conventional source of energy (fossil fuels), the optimization of this type of energy becomes substantial. Various optimization techniques in biogas production process had been developed, including pretreatment, biotechnological approaches, co-digestion as well as the use of serial digester. For some application, the certain purity degree of biogas is needed. The presence of CO2 and other trace components in biogas could affect engine performance adversely. Reducing CO2 content will significantly upgrade the quality of biogas and enhancing the calorific value. Upgrading is generally performed in order to meet the standards for use as vehicle fuel or for injection in the natural gas grid. Different methods for biogas upgrading are used. They differ in functioning, the necessary quality conditions of the incoming gas, and the efficiency. Biogas can be purified from CO2 using pressure swing adsorption, membrane separation, physical or chemical CO2 absorption. This paper reviews the various techniques, which could be used to optimize the biogas production as well as to upgrade the biogas quality.

A probabilistic tsunami hazard assessment for Indonesia

Abstract: . Probabilistic hazard assessments are a fundamental tool for assessing the threats posed by hazards to communities and are important for underpinning evidence-based decision-making regarding risk mitigation activities. Indonesia has been the focus of intense tsunami risk mitigation efforts following the 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami, but this has been largely concentrated on the Sunda Arc with little attention to other tsunami prone areas of the country such as eastern Indonesia. We present the first nationally consistent probabilistic tsunami hazard assessment (PTHA) for Indonesia. This assessment produces time-independent forecasts of tsunami hazards at the coast using data from tsunami generated by local, regional and distant earthquake sources. The methodology is based on the established monte carlo approach to probabilistic seismic hazard assessment (PSHA) and has been adapted to tsunami. We account for sources of epistemic and aleatory uncertainty in the analysis through the use of logic trees and sampling probability density functions. For short return periods (100 years) the highest tsunami hazard is the west coast of Sumatra, south coast of Java and the north coast of Papua. For longer return periods (500–2500 years), the tsunami hazard is highest along the Sunda Arc, reflecting the larger maximum magnitudes. The annual probability of experiencing a tsunami with a height of > 0.5 m at the coast is greater than 10% for Sumatra, Java, the Sunda islands (Bali, Lombok, Flores, Sumba) and north Papua. The annual probability of experiencing a tsunami with a height of > 3.0 m, which would cause significant inundation and fatalities, is 1–10% in Sumatra, Java, Bali, Lombok and north Papua, and 0.1–1% for north Sulawesi, Seram and Flores. The results of this national-scale hazard assessment provide evidence for disaster managers to prioritise regions for risk mitigation activities and/or more detailed hazard or risk assessment.

Habitat collapse due to overgrazing threatens turtle conservation in marine protected areas

Abstract: Marine protected areas (MPAs) are key tools for combatting the global overexploitation of endangered species. The prevailing paradigm is that MPAs are beneficial in helping to restore ecosystems to more ‘natural’ conditions. However, MPAs may have unintended negative effects when increasing densities of protected species exert destructive effects on their habitat. Here, we report on severe seagrass degradation in a decade-old MPA where hyper-abundant green turtles adopted a previously undescribed below-ground foraging strategy. By digging for and consuming rhizomes and roots, turtles create abundant bare gaps, thereby enhancing erosion and reducing seagrass regrowth. A fully parametrized model reveals that the ecosystem is approaching a tipping point, where consumption overwhelms regrowth, which could potentially lead to complete collapse of the seagrass habitat. Seagrass recovery will not ensue unless turtle density is reduced to nearly zero, eliminating the MPA's value as a turtle reserve. Our results reveal an unrecognized, yet imminent threat to MPAs, as sea turtle densities are increasing at major nesting sites and the decline of seagrass habitat forces turtles to concentrate on the remaining meadows inside reserves. This emphasizes the need for policy and management approaches that consider the interactions of protected species with their habitat.

The Role of Lactic Acid Bacteria in Milk Fermentation

Abstract: Species of lactic acid bacteria (LAB) represent as potential microorganisms and have been widely applied in food fermentation worldwide. Milk fermentation process has been relied on the activity of LAB, where transformation of milk to good quality of fermented milk products made possible. The presence of LAB in milk fermentation can be either as spontaneous or inoculated starter cultures. Both of them are promising cultures to be explored in fermented milk manufacture. LAB have a role in milk fermentation to produce acid which is important as preservative agents and generating flavour of the products. They also produce exopolysaccharides which are essential as texture formation. Considering the existing reports on several health-promoting properties as well as their generally recognized as safe (GRAS) status of LAB, they can be widely used in the developing of new fermented milk products.

Cultural Erosion of Balinese Indigenous Knowledge of Food and Nutraceutical Plants

Abstract: The island of Bali has several traditional Aga villages that survive under the pressures of an intense tourist industry and agricultural changes. In order to understand possible impacts on traditional ethnobotanical knowledge (TEK) in Bali, we interviewed local people living in 13 traditional villages regarding the number of known plants and their uses. We analyzed socioeconomic factors influencing change of such knowledge at both individual (informant) and community (village) level. We identified a total of 149 food and nutraceutical plants being used in the study area. Neither gender, occupation, income, nor level of formal education had a significant effect on TEK. However, informant’s age and village status were found to play an important role in the retention of TEK at an individual level. At the village level, the use of Internet/smart phones was an important predictor of cultural erosion.

Restoring degraded tropical forests for carbon and biodiversity

Abstract: The extensive deforestation and degradation of tropical forests is a significant contributor to the loss of biodiversity and to global warming. Restoration could potentially mitigate the impacts of deforestation, yet knowledge on how to efficiently allocate funding for restoration is still in its infancy. We systematically prioritize investments in restoration in the tropical landscape of East Kalimantan, Indonesia, and through this application demonstrate the capacity to account for a diverse suite of restoration techniques and forests of varying condition. To achieve this we develop a map of forest degradation for the region, characterized on the basis of aboveground biomass and differentiated by broad forest types. We estimate the costs of restoration as well as the benefits in terms of carbon sequestration and improving the suitability of habitat for threatened mammals through time. When the objective is solely to enhance carbon stocks, then restoration of highly degraded lowland forest is the most cost-effective activity. However, if the objective is to improve the habitat of threatened species, multiple forest types should be restored and this reduces the accumulated carbon by up to 24%. Our analysis framework provides a transparent method for prioritizing where and how restoration should occur in heterogeneous landscapes in order to maximize the benefits for carbon and biodiversity.

Systematics and natural history of Southeast Asian Rock Geckos (genus Cnemaspis Strauch, 1887) with descriptions of eight new species from Malaysia, Thailand, and Indonesia

Abstract: A well-supported and well-resolved phylogeny based on a concatenated data set from one mitochondrial and two nuclear genes, six morphological characters, and nine color pattern characters for 44 of the 50 species of the Southeast Asian Rock Geckos (genus Cnemaspis Strauch, 1887) is consistent with the previous taxonomy of Cnemaspis based solely on morphology and color pattern. Cnemaspis is partitioned into four major clades that collectively contain six species groups. The monophyly of all clades and species groups is strongly supported and they are parapatrically distributed across well-established, biogeographical regions ranging from southern Vietnam westward through southern Indochina, southward through the Thai-Malay Peninsula, then eastward to Borneo. Eight new species ( Cnemaspis omari sp. nov. from the Thai-Malaysian border; C. temiah sp. nov. from Cameron Highlands, Pahang, Malaysia; C. stongensis sp. nov. from Gunung Stong, Kelantan, Malaysia; C. hangus sp. nov. from Bukit Hangus, Pahang, Malaysia; C. sundagekko sp. nov. from Pulau Siantan, Indonesia; C. peninsularis sp. nov. from southern Peninsular Malaysia and Singapore, and C. mumpuniae sp. nov. and C. sundainsula sp. nov. from Pulau Natuna Besar, Indonesia) are described based on morphology and color pattern and all but C. sundagekko sp. nov. are included in the phylogenetic analyses. Cnemaspis kendallii is polyphyletic and a composite of six species. An updated taxonomy consistent with the phylogeny is proposed for all 50 species and is based on 25 morphological and 53 color pattern characters scored across 594 specimens. Cladogenetic events and biogeographical relationships within Cnemaspis were likely influenced by this group’s low vagility and the cyclical patterns of geographical and environmental changes in Sundaland over the last 25 million years and especially within the last 2.5 million years. The phylogeny indicates that nocturnality, diurnality, substrate preferences, and the presence of ocelli in the shoulder regions have evolved independently multiple times.

Conversion of cacao pod husks by pyrolysis and catalytic reaction to produce useful chemicals

Abstract: Recently, much attention has been devoted the generation of useful chemicals from biomass. Cacao pod husks, a waste biomass, are one of the agricultural crop residues that can be utilized for this purpose. The husks were treated by pyrolysis to produce pyrolysis oil that contained several chemical compounds such as ketones, carboxylic acids, aldehydes, furans, heterocyclic aromatics, alkyl benzenes, phenols and benzenediols. Therefore, this biomass-derived pyrolysis oil is potentially a rich source of useful chemicals. The pyrolysis oil was upgraded over iron oxide catalysts. During the catalytic upgrade, ketonization, selective oxidation and demethoxylation reactions occurred and selectively produced aliphatic ketones (acetone, 2-butanone), phenol and alkyl phenols (cresol, xylenol, ethylphenol).

Biological Activities of Carrageenan

Abstract: Red seaweeds are popular and economically important worldwide and also well known for their medicinal effects due to the presence of phycocolloids Carrageenans, the major phycocolloid group of red algae, have been extensively investigated for their vast array of bioactivities such as anticoagulant, antiviral, cholesterol-lowering effects, immunomodulatory activity, and antioxidant Carrageenan possesses promising activity both in vitro and in vivo, showing promising potential to be developed as therapeutic agents In this chapter, attempts have been made to examine the health benefit effects of carrageenans

Modelling the habitat use and distribution of the threatened Javan slow loris Nycticebus javanicus

Abstract: The Javan slow loris Nycticebus javanicus is threatened by habitat decline and is classified as Critically Endangered on the IUCN Red List. Information on its distribution and habi- tat preferences is still lacking, and so far the distribution of the Javan slow loris has only been quantified via ecological niche modelling based on museum specimens and remotely derived environmental layers. We aimed to refine the modelled predictions and to verify the distribution of the Javan slow loris by collecting up-to-date occurrence data, which are fundamental for con- servation and management of the species. Furthermore, we identify variables that predict its pres- ence and give recommendations for future survey sites and conservation actions. From April to June 2012 we collected data on species presence, habitat preferences and levels of disturbance at priority sites throughout Java. We present a map of the predicted distribution of N. javanicus based on a maximum entropy model. We investigated habitat preferences using R (v. 2.14.1). Dur- ing the study we sighted 52 lorises in 9 out of 14 investigated areas. The amount of bamboo in a forest had a positive effect on the encounter rates. Furthermore, we made 86% of sightings in for- est plantations and agricultural areas located outside protected areas, with the majority located in areas with measured high levels of disturbance. We suggest that further ecological studies are needed to understand if and why densities may be higher in anthropogenically disturbed areas.

Urban Lakes in Megacity Jakarta: Risk and Management Plan for Future Sustainability

Abstract: The impact of urban development in the distinct surrounding inhabited areas on urban lakes in megacity Jakarta has been so pervasive that makes the lakes very vulnerable to environmental disturbances. High levels of disturbances to the urban lakes from urban development in the past and recent years, such as lake filling, land use change, shoreline encroachment, and garbage dump, have caused nearly 10 - 20% of urban lakes loss in megacity Jakarta. The consistency of lakes loss has been estimated from the old-Dutch map to the recent year maps indicating that the lakes continuously have been sacrificed for urban area development. In addition to the lake front destruction, siltation and the excessive macrophyte coverage have caused more than 25% of existing lakes shrinkage in area and volume and based on the lake morphology assessment, nearly 50% of lakes have been damaged. The lakes inurban village, rural village, agricultural and urban village – industrial areas are at high risk of lakefront landscape destruction, siltation/sedimentation, eutrophication and water pollution, including pathogenic bacteria and toxic pollutants contamination that can pose threat on human's health as results of untreated sewage inflow and storm water runoff to the lakes. The complexity of the problems faced by urban lakes in Jakarta requires a comprehensive management plan that is not only effective in maintaining the stability of lake ecosystem but also effective in improving urban life, such as socio-culture-economic conditions of people around the lakes. Fundamental requirement is that the urban lake should be managed according to its surrounding characteristics and conditions, and functional context.

Porous Carbon Spheres from Hydrothermal Carbonization and KOH Activation on Cassava and Tapioca Flour Raw Material

Abstract: The carbon materials exhibit various uses as part of the superior product. This research aimed to obtain activated carbon in sphere shape from cassava and tapioca flour through the hydrothermal carbonization and KOH activation. The condition of hydrothermal carbonization as employed was the maximum temperature at 250 °C kept for 8 hours. Based on results of proximate analysis, XRD, and SEM observation on the resulting hydrochar, its best properties were obtained using tapioca flour material. The hydrochar (Hc) as such was further activated into the activated carbon using KOH solution, with the ratio of Hc to KOH at 3:1, for one hour at 800 °C. The resulting activated carbon from the precursor of tapioca Hc appeared predominantly in sphere shape; and exhibited the BET area at 986 m 2 /g, total pore volume 0.57 cc/g, micropore volume 0.46 cc/g, pore diameter 1.6 nm, and electrical resistance lower than 0.01 ohm.

Effect on α-glucosidase inhibition and antioxidant activities of butyrolactone derivatives from Aspergillus terreus MC751.

Abstract: Butyrolactone I and II from Aspergillus terreus MC751 as well as three synthetic butyrolactone I derivatives were assessed for α-glucosidase inhibitory and antioxidant activities. Butyrolactone I (1), which has a prenyl side chain and an alpha hydroxy-lactone group, was the most potent α-glucosidase inhibitor and also had antioxidant activities with IC50 values of 52.17 ± 5.68 and 51.39 ± 3.68 μM, respectively. In contrast, butyrolactone II (2) lacking a prenyl side chain was the most potent antioxidant with an IC50 of 17.64 ± 6.41 μM, but was less active against α-glucosidase. Acetylation of all hydroxyl groups of butyrolactone I significantly decreased both the α-glucosidase inhibitory and antioxidant activity. The prenyl and alpha hydroxy-lactone groups seem to have a synergic effect on the inhibitory activity but not antioxidant activity. This is the first structure–activity relationship report on the α-glucosidase inhibition and antioxidant activity by butyrolactone derivatives.

Rupture and variable coupling behavior of the Mentawai segment of the Sunda megathrust during the supercycle culmination of 1797 to 1833

Abstract: We refer to periods of subduction strain accumulation beneath the Mentawai Islands, Sumatra, as “supercycles,” because each culminates in a series of partial ruptures of the megathrust in its final decades. The finale of the previous supercycle comprised two giant earthquakes in 1797 and 1833 and whatever happened in between. This behavior between two great ruptures has implications for how the megathrust will behave between its more recent partial failure, during the M_w 8.4 earthquake of 2007, and subsequent large ruptures. We synthesize previously published coral microatoll records and a large new coral data set to constrain not only these two giant ruptures but also the intervening interseismic megathrust behavior. We present detailed maps of coseismic uplift during the two earthquakes and of interseismic deformation during the periods 1755–1833 and 1950–2000, as well as models of the corresponding slip and coupling on the underlying megathrust. The large magnitudes we derive (M_w 8.6–8.8 for 1797 and M_w 8.8–8.9 for 1833) confirm that the 2007 earthquakes released only a fraction of the moment released during the previous rupture sequence. Whereas megathrust behavior leading up to the 1797 and 2007 earthquakes was similar and comparatively simple, behavior between 1797 and 1833 was markedly different and more complex: several patches of the megathrust became weakly coupled following the 1797 earthquake. We conclude that while major earthquakes generally do not involve rupture of the entire Mentawai segment, they may significantly change the state of coupling on the megathrust for decades to follow, influencing the progression of subsequent ruptures.

A new synthesis of the molecular systematics and biogeography of honeyeaters (Passeriformes: Meliphagidae) highlights biogeographical and ecological complexity of a spectacular avian radiation

Abstract: The passerine family Meliphagidae (the honeyeaters) comprises 175-180 species in 40-50 genera. It is an iconic element of the Australo-Papuan avifauna and also occurs in Indonesia and on remote Pacific Ocean islands. Building on previous molecular studies that have pioneered a renewed understanding of the family's circumscription and systematics, we present an updated phylogenetic and systematics synthesis of honeyeaters derived from 112 mostly Australian, New Guinean and Wallacean species- and subspecies-rank taxa aligned across 9246 positions spanning four mitochondrial and four nuclear genes. We affirm many of the recent changes advocated to the group's genus-level systematics and offer some further refinements. The group's radiation appears to coincide broadly with the aridification of Australia in the Miocene, consistent with the time of origin of diversification of extant lineages in several other groups of Australian organisms. Most importantly, the complexity of the biogeography underlying the group's spectacular radiation, especially within Australia, is now apparent. Foremost among such examples is the robust evidence indicating that multiple, independent lineages of honeyeaters, including several monotypic genera, are endemic to the Australian arid zone, presumably having diverged and evolved within it. Also apparent and warranting further study are the phenotypic diversity among close relatives and the remarkably disjunct distributions within some clades, perhaps implying extinction of geographically intermediate lineages. Given such complexity, understanding the evolution of this radiation, which has thus far been intractable, relies on integration of molecular data with morphology, ecology and behaviour.

Deep-water anoxygenic photosythesis in a ferruginous chemocline

Abstract: Ferruginous Lake Matano, Indonesia hosts one of the deepest anoxygenic photosynthetic communities on Earth. This community is dominated by low-light adapted, BChl e-synthesizing green sulfur bacteria (GSB), which comprise ~25% of the microbial community immediately below the oxic-anoxic boundary (OAB; 115-120 m in 2010). The size of this community is dependent on the mixing regime within the lake and the depth of the OAB-at ~117 m, the GSB live near their low-light limit. Slow growth and C-fixation rates suggest that the Lake Matano GSB can be supported by sulfide even though it only accumulates to scarcely detectable (low μm to nm) concentrations. A model laboratory strain (Chlorobaculum tepidum) is indeed able to access HS- for oxidation at nm concentrations. Furthermore, the GSB in Lake Matano possess a full complement of S-oxidizing genes. Together, this physiological and genetic information suggests that deep-water GSB can be supported by a S-cycle, even under ferruginous conditions. The constraints we place on the metabolic capacity and physiology of GSB have important geobiological implications. Biomarkers diagnostic of GSB would be a good proxy for anoxic conditions but could not discriminate between euxinic and ferruginous states, and though GSB biomarkers could indicate a substantial GSB community, such a community may exist with very little metabolic activity. The light requirements of GSB indicate that at light levels comparable to those in the OAB of Lake Matano or the Black Sea, GSB would have contributed little to global ocean primary production, nutrient cycling, and banded iron formation (BIF) deposition in the Precambrian. Before the proliferation of oxygenic photosynthesis, shallower OABs and lower light absorption in the ocean's surface waters would have permitted greater light availability to GSB, potentially leading to a greater role for GSB in global biogeochemical cycles.

Multiple transgressions of Wallace's Line explain diversity of flightless Trigonopterus weevils on Bali.

Abstract: The fauna of Bali, situated immediately west of Wallace's Line, is supposedly of recent Javanese origin and characterized by low levels of endemicity. In flightless Trigonopterus weevils, however, we find 100% endemism for the eight species here reported for Bali. Phylogeographic analyses show extensive in situ differentiation, including a local radiation of five species. A comprehensive molecular phylogeny and ancestral area reconstruction of Indo-Malayan–Melanesian species reveals a complex colonization pattern, where the three Balinese lineages all arrived from the East, i.e. all of them transgressed Wallace's Line. Although East Java possesses a rich fauna of Trigonopterus, no exchange can be observed with Bali. We assert that the biogeographic picture of Bali has been dominated by the influx of mobile organisms from Java, but different relationships may be discovered when flightless invertebrates are studied. Our results highlight the importance of in-depth analyses of spatial patterns of biodiversity.

Twentieth century sea surface temperature and salinity variations at Timor inferred from paired coral δ18O and Sr/Ca measurements

Abstract: The Indonesian Throughflow (ITF), which represents the global ocean circulation connecting the Pacific Warm Pool to the Indian Ocean, strongly influences the Indo-Pacific climate. ITF monitoring since the late 1990s using mooring buoys have provided insights on seasonal and interannual time scales. However, the absence of longer records limits our perspective on its evolution over the past century. Here, we present sea surface temperature (SST) and salinity (SSS) proxy records from Timor Island located at the ITF exit passage via paired coral δ18O and Sr/Ca measurements spanning the period 1914–2004. These high-resolution proxy based climate data of the last century highlights improvements and cautions when interpreting paleoclimate records of the Indonesian region. If the seasonality of SST and SSS is not perfectly in phase, the application of coral Sr/Ca thermometry improves SST reconstructions compared to estimates based on coral δ18O only. Our records also underline the importance of ocean advection besides rainfall on local SSS in the region. Although the El Nino/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) causes larger anomalies relative to the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), Timor coral-based SST and SSS records robustly correlate with IOD on interannual time scales, whereas ENSO only modifies Timor SST. Similarly, Timor SST and SSS are strongly linked to Indian Ocean decadal-scale variations that appear to lead Timor oceanographic conditions by about 1.6–2 years. Our study sheds new light on the complex signatures of Indo-Pacific climate modes on SST and SSS dynamics of the ITF.

Rapid deforestation threatens mid‐elevational endemic birds but climate change is most important at higher elevations

Abstract: Aim Deforestation and climate change are two of the most serious threats to tropical birds. Here, we combine fine-scale climatic and dynamic land cover models to forecast species vulnerability in rain forest habitats. Location Sulawesi, Indonesia. Methods We sampled bird communities on four mountains across three seasons in Lore Lindu National Park, Sulawesi, Indonesia (a globally important hotspot of avian endemism), to characterize relationships between elevation and abundance. Deforestation from 2000 to 2010 was quantified, and predictors of deforestation were identified. Future forest area was projected under two land use change scenarios – one assuming current deforestation rates and another assuming a 50% reduction in deforestation. A digital elevation model and an adiabatic lapse rate were used to create a fine-scale map of temperature in the national park. Then, the effects of climate change were projected by fitting statistical models of species abundance as a function of current temperature and forecasting future abundance based on warming from low- and high-emissions climate change. Results The national park lost 11.8% of its forest from 2000 to 2010. Model-based projections indicate that high-elevation species (white-eared myza Myza sarasinorum and Sulawesi leaf-warbler Phylloscopus sarasinorum) might be buffered from deforestation because their ranges are isolated from human settlement, but these species may face steep population declines from climate change (by as much as 61%). The middle-elevation sulphur-bellied whistler Pachycephala sulfuriventer is predicted to undergo minor declines from climate change (8–11% reduction), while deforestation is predicted to cause larger declines of 13–19%. Main conclusions The biological richness and rapid deforestation now occurring inside the national park emphasize the need for increased enforcement, while our modelling suggests that climate change is most threatening to high-elevation endemics. These findings are likely applicable to other highland tropical sites where deforestation is encroaching from below and climate change is stressing high-elevation species from above.

Geographic variation of melanisation patterns in a hornet species: genetic differences, climatic pressures or aposematic constraints?

Abstract: Coloration of stinging insects is often based on contrasted patterns of light and black pigmentations as a warning signal to predators. However, in many social wasp species, geographic variation drastically modifies this signal through melanic polymorphism potentially driven by different selective pressures. To date, surprisingly little is known about the geographic variation of coloration of social wasps in relation to aposematism and melanism and to genetic and developmental constraints. The main objectives of this study are to improve the description of the colour variation within a social wasp species and to determine which factors are driving this variation. Therefore, we explored the evolutionary history of a polymorphic hornet, Vespa velutina Lepeletier, 1836, using mitochondrial and microsatellite markers, and we analysed its melanic variation using a colour space based on a description of body parts coloration. We found two main lineages within the species and confirmed the previous synonymy of V. auraria Smith, 1852, under V. velutina, differing only by the coloration. We also found that the melanic variation of most body parts was positively correlated, with some segments forming potential colour modules. Finally, we showed that the variation of coloration between populations was not related to their molecular, geographic or climatic differences. Our observations suggest that the coloration patterns of hornets and their geographic variations are determined by genes with an influence of developmental constraints. Our results also highlight that Vespa velutina populations have experienced several convergent evolutions of the coloration, more likely influenced by constraints on aposematism and Mullerian mimicry than by abiotic pressures on melanism.