Showing papers by "Institute for the Study of Labor published in 1991"

Environmental Impacts of a North American Free Trade Agreement

Abstract: In general, a reduction in trade barriers will affect the environment by expanding the scale of economic activity, by altering the composition of economic activity and by initiating a change in the techniques of production. We present empirical evidence to assess the relative magnitudes of these three effects as they apply to further trade liberalization in Mexico. We first use comparable measures of three air pollutants in a cross-section of urban areas located in 42 countries to study the relationship between air quality and economic growth. We find for two pollutants (sulphur dioxide and `smoke') that concentrations increase with per capita GDP at low levels of national income, but decrease with GDP growth at higher levels of income. We then study the determinants of the industry pattern of US imports from Mexico and of value added by Mexico's maquiladora sector. We investigate whether the size of pollution abatement costs in US industry influences the pattern of international trade and investment. Finally, we use the results from a computable general equilibrium model to study the likely compositional effect of a North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) on pollution in Mexico.

How Computers Have Changed the Wage Structure: Evidence from Microdata, 1984-1989

Abstract: This paper examines whether employees who use a computer at work earn a higher wage rate than otherwise similar workers who do not use a computer at work. The analysis primarily relies on data from the Current Population Survey and the High School and Beyond Survey. A variety of statistical models are estimated to try to correct for unobserved variables that might be correlated with both job-related computer use and earnings. The estimates suggest that workers who use computers on their job earn roughly a 10 to 15 percent higher wage rate. In addition, the estimates suggest that the expansion in computer use in the l980s can account for between one-third and one-half of the observed increase in the rate of return to education, Finally, occupations that experienced greater growth in computer use between 1984 and 1989 also experienced above average wage growth.

School Quality and Black-White Relative Earnings: A Direct Assessment

Abstract: The average wage differential between black and white men fell from 40 percent in 1960 to 25 percent in 1980. Much of this convergence is attributable to a relative increase in the rate of return to schooling among black workers. It is widely argued that the growth in the relative return to black education reflects the dramatic improvements in the quality of black schooling over the past century. To test this hypothesis we have assembled data on three aspects of school quality -- pupil teacher ratios. annual teacher pay. and term length for black and white schools in 18 segregated states from 1915 to 1966. The school quality data are linked to estimated rates of return to education for Southern-born men from different cohorts and states. measured in 1960. 1970. and 1980. Improvements in the relative quality of black schools explain 20 percent of the narrowing of the black-white earnings gap between 1960 and 1980.

The Effect of Social Security on Labor Supply: A Cohort Analysis of the Notch Generation

Abstract: This paper uses aggregate birth year/calendar year level data derived from the Current Population Survey (CPS) to estimate the effect of Social Security wealth on the labor supply of older men in the 1970s and 1980s. The analysis focuses on the 1977 amendments to the Social Security Act t which created a substantial t unanticipated differential in benefits for otherwise identical individuals depending on whether they were born before or after 1917. This differential has become known as the benefit notch. There are two principal differences between the present analysis and the previous literature. First t this paper uses time-series variations in benefit levels to estimate the relationship between benefits and labor supply in an era when real benefits were falling for new recipients: Second t variation in benefit levels across cohorts is used to estimate the relationship between benefits and labor supply. The results support a conclusion that labor supply continued to decline for the "notch babies" who received lower Social Security benefits than earlier cohorts.

Environmental impacts of a North American free trade agreement

Abstract: A reduction in trade barriers generally will affect the environment by expanding the scale of economic activity, by altering the composition of economic activity, and by bringing about a change in the techniques of production. We present empirical evidence to assess the relative magnitudes of these three effects as they apply to further trade liberalization in Mexico. In Section 1. we use comparable measures of three air pollutants in a cross-section of urban areas located in 42 countries to study the relationship between air quality and economic growth. We find for two pollutants (sulfur dioxide and "smoke") that concentrations increase with per capita GDP at low levels of national income, but decrease with GD? growth at higher levels of income. Section 2 studies the determinants of the industry pattern of U.S. imports from Mexico and of value added by Mexico's maquiladora sector. We investigate whether the size of pollution abatement costs in the U.S. industry influences the pattern of international trade and investment. Finally, in Section 3, we use the results from a computable general equilibrium model to study the likely compositional effect of a NAFTA on pollution in Mexico.

Instrumental Variables Estimation of Average Treatment Effects in Econometrics and Epidemiology

Abstract: The average effect of intervention or treatment is a parameter of interest in both epidemiology and econometrics. A key difference between applications in the two fields is that epidemiologic research is more likely to involve qualitative outcomes and nonlinear models. An example is the recent use of the Vietnam era draft lottery to construct estimates of the effect of Vietnam era military service on civilian mortality. In this paper. I present necessary and sufficient conditions for linear instrumental variables. techniques to consistently estimate average treatment effects in qualitative or other nonlinear models. Most latent index models commonly applied to qualitative outcomes in econometrics fail to satisfy these conditions, and monte carlo evidence on the bias of instrumental estimates of the average treatment effect in a bivariate probit model is presented. The evidence suggests that linear instrumental variables estimators perform nearly as well as the correctly specified maximum likelihood estimator. especially in large samples. Linear instrumental variables and the normal maximum likelihood estimator are also remarkably robust to non-normality.

Changes in the structure of wages in the public and private sectors

Abstract: The wage structure in the U.S. public sector responded sluggishly to substantial changes in private sector wages during the 1970s and 1980s. Despite a large expansion in the college/high school wage differential during the 1980s in the private sector, the public sector college wage premium remained fairly stable. Although wage differentials by skill, in the public sector were fairly unresponsive to changes in the private sector, overall pay levels for state and local government workers were quite sensitive to local labor market conditions. But federal government regional pay levels appear unaffected by local economic conditions. Several possible explanations are considered to account for the rigidity of the government internal wage structure, including employer size, unionization, and nonprofit status. None of these factors adequately explains the pay rigidity we observe in the government.

Omitted-Ability Bias and the Increase in the Return to Schooling

Abstract: Over the 1980s there were sharp increases in the return to schooling estimated with conventional wage regressions. We use both a signaling model and a human capital model to explore how the relationship between ability and schooling could have changed over this period in ways Chat would have increased the schooling coefficient in these regressions. Our empirical results reject the hypothesis that an increase in the upward bias of the schooling coefficient, due to a change in the relationship between ability and schooling, underlies the observed increase in the return to education over the 1980s. We also find that the increase in the return to education has occurred largely for workers with relatively high levels of academic ability.

Short and Long Run Externalities

Abstract: In this paper we build upon previous work on external economies in manufacturing [Caballero and Lyons (1989, 1990)] by providing new evidence helpful for discriminating between different types of externalities. We investigate four-digit level input-output relationships and find that, over shorter horizons, the linkage between an industry and its customers is the most important factor in the transmission of externalities. This suggests that transactions externalities accruing primarily to the seller, and/or activity-driven demand externalities are significant for explaining the short-run behavior of measured total factor productivity. Over longer horizons. on the other hand, it is the activity level of suppliers that is more important. This suggests that external effects are also operating through intermediate goods linkages.

Sources of Identifying Information in Evaluation Models

Abstract: The average effect of social programs on outcomes such as earnings is a parameter of primary interest in econometric evaluations studies. New results on using exclusion restrictions to identify and estimate average treatment effects are presented. Identification is achieved given a minimum of parametric assumptions, initially without reference to a latent index framework. Most econometric analyses of evaluation models motivate identifying assumptions using models of individual behavior. Our technical conditions do not fit easily into a conventional discrete choice framework, rather they fit into a framework where the source of identifying information is institutional knowledge regarding program administration. This framework also suggests an attractive experimental design for research using human subjects, in which eligible participants need not be denied treatment. We present a simple instrumental variables estimator for the average effect of treatment on program participants, and show that the estimator attains Chamberlain's semi-parametric efficiency bound. The bias of estimators that satisfy only exclusion restrictions is also considered.

Estimating the Effect of Training on Employment and Unemployment Durations: Evidence From Experimental Data

Abstract: Using data from a social experiment, we estimate the impact of training on the duration of employment and unemployment spells for AFDC recipients. Although an experimental design eliminates the need to construct a comparison group for this analysis, simple comparisons between the average durations or the transition rates of treatments' and controls' employment and unemployment spells lead to biased estimates of the effects of training. We present and implement several econometric approaches that demonstrate the importance of and correct for these biases. For the training program studied in the paper, we find that it raised employment rates because employment durations increased. In contrast, training did not lead to shorter unemployment spells.

Labor Demand: What Do We Know? What Don't We Know?

Abstract: This study reviews empirical research on the demand for labor. The static analysis discusses the production parameters describing homogeneous labor and labor disaggregated along various criteria; the distinction between workers and hours; the importance of job dynamics; and the nature of a variety of policies that affect the long-run demand for labor. Issues in the dynamics of demand for workers and hours, including speeds of adjustment for homogeneous and heterogeneous labor, asymmetries, and the nature of adjustment costs are presented. The paper emphasizes how the paucity of appropriate data has limited our ability to obtain reliable estimates of the underlying concepts.

How Would Universities Respond to Increased Federal Support for Graduate Students

Abstract: Projections of forthcoming shortages of Ph.D.s and thus new faculty for the academic sector, abound. Among the policies proposed to prevent such shortages is increased federal support for graduate students. Lost in the policy debate, however, has been concern for the possibility that increased federal support might induce academic institutions to redirect their own internal resources in a way that at least partially frustrates the intent of the policy change. Our paper presents an analysis of this issue using institutionally-based data for science and engineering fields. We find that doctorate-producing universities do respond to changes in external support for graduate students by altering the number of students they support on institutional funds. While adjustments to changes in external support levels appear to be quite rapid, the magnitude of these responses are quite small. On average, an increase of 100 in the number of students supported by external funds is estimated to reduce the number supported on institutional funds by 22 to 23. We also find that the magnitude of the response varies across fields, that within the science and engineering fields there is some fungibility of external support across fields, and that changes in external support influence the distribution of internal support by type of support (fellowship, research assistantship, and teaching assistantship) .

The Appointment-Book Problem and Commitment, With Applications to Refereeing and Medicine

Abstract: Markets that involve customers waiting for services or goods in queues whose length they cannot observe are studied. In these markets suppliers truncate queues that become so long that they jeopardize the supplier's future relations with the customer. The length of the queue and the probability of truncation increase with the quality of the supplier, and this implicitly defines the price that customers are willing to pay for quality. Queue-jumping or nontruncation can occur if monetary payments are made or if nonmonetary specific commitments exist between a customer and a supplier. The predictions apply to any activity where the queue is unobservable and transactions costs make contracts or spot pricing uneconomic. The theory is examined on a random sample of refereeing requests by seven economics journals. Quality, measured by experience and citations to the referee's work, lengthens the queue and increases the probability of truncation. Monetary bribes affect queue discipline in the expected way; and specific commitments, measured by past publication in the journal and location at the editor's institution, greatly affect the truncation rate, but have no impact on the rate of servicing the queue. The implications for truncation are also examined on a set of data describing doctors' willingness to accept new patients, with much the same results as in the sample of referees.

Industrial Shifts, Skills Levels, and the Labor Market for White and Black Males

Abstract: In this paper we estimate the effects of industrial shifts in the 1970s and 1980s on the wages and employment of black and white males. We use micro Census data for 52 MSAs, and estimate effects separately by age and education group. The results show that industrial shifts did reduce demand for blacks and 1essskilled males in 1970s and 1980s. Demand shifts away from manufacturing, in particular, reduced employment and wages for black and white males. While the magnitudes of these effects are fairly small for many groups, they can account for one-third to one-half of the employment decline for less-educated young blacks in the 1970s. These results imply fairly large effects on the earnings of less-skilled males in the 1980s as well.

The Effect of the New Minimum Wage Law in a Low-Wage Labor Market

Abstract: After nearly a decade without change, legislation that affected the Federal minimum wage in two significant ways took effect on April 1, 1990: (1) the hourly minimum wage was increased from $3.35 to $3.80; and (2) employers were enabled to pay a subminimum wage to teenage workers for up to six months. This paper examines the effect of these changes in the minimum wage law in a low-wage labor market using data from a survey of 167 fast food restaurants in Texas. We draw three main conclusions. First, our survey results indicate that less than 2 percent of fast food restaurants have taken advantage of the youth subminimum, even though 73 percent of the sampled restaurants paid a starting wage of less than $3.80 before the new minimum wage took effect. Second, we find that a sizeable minority of fast food restaurants increased wages for workers by an amount exceeding that necessary to comply with the higher minimum wage. Third, the majority of fast food restaurants in Texas that were directly affected by the minimum wage increase did not report that they attempted to offset their mandated wage increase by cutting fringe benefits or reducing employment.

Efficient and Inefficient Employment Outcomes: A Study Based on Canadian Data

Abstract: This paper estimates employment equations based on the traditional labour demand model and modern efficient bargain theory using data drawn from wage contracts signed in the Canadian private unionized sector between 1978 and 1984. Contrary to the labour demand model predictions, the alternative wage rate is consistently significant and has the negative coefficient predicted by efficient bargain theory. Though a credible labour demand model can sometimes be estimated, the results are sensitive to the assumed market structure and to the introduction of alternative wage and unemployment insurance variables. Non-nested tests favour efficient bargain specifications.

Lump-Sums, Profit Sharing, and the Labor Costs in the Union Sector

Abstract: This paper documents the increase in the use of lump-sum payments and profit sharing plans in union contracts in the 1980s, and evaluates the extent to which these innovations may have contributed to moderation in the growth of labor costs, and increased pay flexibility. We find evidence that lump-sum and profit sharing arrangements reduced labor cost growth at both the aggregate and firm level. But the evidence linking these plans to labor cost flexibility is mixed; although the evidence suggests that profit sharing plans may be associated with greater flexibility at the firm level, there is no evidence that lump-sum plans increase flexibility at either the firm or aggregate level.

Unobserved Ability, Efficiency Wages, and Interindustry Wage Differentials

Abstract: Interindustry wage differentials in wage regressions estimated for individuals have been interpreted as evidence consistent with efficiency wage models. A principal competing explanation is that these differentials are generated by differences across workers in unobserved ability. This paper tests the unobserved ability hypothesis .by incorporating test scores into standard wage regressions as error-ridden indicators of unobserved ability. The results indicate that differences in unobserved ability explain relatively little of interindustry or interoccupation wage differentials.

Evidence on Employment Effects of Minimum Wages and Subminimum Wage Provisions From Panel Data on State Minimum Wage Laws

Abstract: We construct a panel data set on state-level minimum wage laws and economic conditions to reevaluate existing evidence on minimum wage effects on employment, most of which comes from time-series data. Our estimates of the elasticities of teen and young-adult employment-to-population ratios fall primarily in the range -0.1 to -0.2, similar to the consensus range of estimates from time-series studies. We also find evidence that youth subminimum wage provisions enacted by state legislatures have moderated the disemployment effects of minimum wages.

Sex Discrimination by Sex: Voting in a Professional Society

Abstract: Economic theories of discrimination are usually based on tastes The huge body of empirical studies, however, considers the discriminatory outcomes that are the reduced-form results of interactions between tastes and opportunity sets None examines tastes for discrimination directly, or considers people's willingness to trade off other characteristics to indulge their tastes We study these trade-offs using a set of data on votes for officers in a professional association The evidence shows that female voters are much more likely to vote for female than for male candidates, and that other affinities between them and a candidate have little effect on their choices Male voters are slightly more likely to vote for female candidates, but their choices are easily altered by other affinities to a candidate