Showing papers by "Institute for the Study of Labor published in 2021"
TL;DR: In this article, the average dynamic effect of each intervention on the incidence of COVID-19 and on people's whereabouts was estimated by developing a statistical model that accounts for the contemporaneous adoption of multiple interventions.
Abstract: Various non-pharmaceutical interventions were adopted by countries worldwide in the fight against the COVID-19 pandemic with adverse socioeconomic side effects, which raises the question about their differential effectiveness. We estimate the average dynamic effect of each intervention on the incidence of COVID-19 and on people's whereabouts by developing a statistical model that accounts for the contemporaneous adoption of multiple interventions. Using daily data from 175 countries, we show that, even after controlling for other concurrent lockdown policies, cancelling public events, imposing restrictions on private gatherings and closing schools and workplaces had significant effects on reducing COVID-19 infections. Restrictions on internal movement and public transport had no effects because the aforementioned policies, imposed earlier on average, had already de facto reduced human mobility. International travel restrictions, although imposed early, had a short-lived effect failing to prevent the epidemic from turning into a pandemic because they were less stringent. We interpret the impact of each intervention on containing the pandemic using a conceptual framework which relies on their effects on human mobility behaviors in a manner consistent with time-use and epidemiological factors.
179 citations
TL;DR: The authors provide an overview of future directions for research related to refugee entrepreneurship, including key concepts, explores the relations within the current broader literature on migration and entrepreneurship, and identifies several promising clusters of questions.
Abstract: This article provides an overview of future directions for research related to refugee entrepreneurship. It puts forward key concepts, explores the relations within the current broader literature on migration and entrepreneurship, and identifies several promising clusters of questions. We also introduce five papers in a special section of this issue, which offer nuanced findings and cues for further research.
49 citations
TL;DR: In this article, a comprehensive review of the socio-economic literature on the student determinants of tertiary education dropout is provided, in order to help research scholars better understand this phenomenon.
Abstract: This article provides a comprehensive review of the socio-economic literature on the student determinants of tertiary education dropout, in order to help research scholars better understand this phenomenon. Empirical findings are framed within a theoretical model that analyzes higher education choices and prospective outcomes in a dynamic setting, where informative issues (emphasized by the economic literature) and relational ones (emphasized by the sociological literature) are crucial to predicting students' achievements. Our review suggests that student university persistence/attrition depends on a mix of individual, institutional, and economic factors, the effects of which on the dropout decision are mediated by a student's ability to integrate into the academic system. Some factors are given, and their effects are valuable only in a descriptive perspective. Others, instead, can be manipulated by the decisionmakers in the tertiary education system and, as such, are more interesting from the policymaker's viewpoint. In particular, all interventions aimed at fulfilling the initial informational gap of students and at improving their integration into academic and social life are key to study success.
28 citations
TL;DR: In this article, the authors provided the first large-scale evidence on self-selection of refugees and irregular migrants who arrived in Europe in 2015 or 2016, using unique datasets from the International Organization for Migration and Gallup World Polls.
22 citations
TL;DR: In this article, the authors provided the first large-scale evidence on the impact of industrial robots on the gender pay gap using data from 20 European countries and found that robot adoption increases both male and female earnings but also increases the gender gap.
21 citations
TL;DR: In this article, the effects of the COVID-19 pandemic on small business activity were investigated by matching small business establishment records from Homebase with information on business activity from Google, Facebook, and Safegraph to distinguish business closings and openings.
Abstract: The COVID-19 pandemic has led to an explosion of research using real-time establishment-level data. One key challenge when working with this data is how to take into account the effects of business openings and closings. In this paper, we address this challenge by matching small business establishment records from Homebase with information on business activity from Google, Facebook, and Safegraph to distinguish business closings and openings from other sample exits and entry. We show that this distinction is critical to benchmark the data to pre-pandemic administrative records and estimate the effects of the pandemic on small business activity. We find four key results: (1) employment of small businesses in four of the hardest hit service sectors contracted more severely in the beginning of the pandemic than employment of larger businesses, but small businesses also rebounded more strongly and have on average recovered a higher share of job losses than larger businesses; (2) closings account for 70% of the initial decline in small business employment, but two thirds of closed businesses have reopened and the annual rate of closings is just slightly higher than prior to the pandemic; (3) new openings of small businesses constitute an important driver of the recovery but the annual rate of new openings is only about half the rate one year earlier (4) small business employment was affected less negatively in counties with early access to loans from the Paycheck Protection Program (PPP) and in counties where Federal Pandemic Unemployment Compensation (FPUC) was more generous relative to pre-pandemic earnings of likely recipients, with business closings accounting for a large part of these two effects. The results dispel the popular notion that small businesses continue to suffer more from the pandemic than larger businesses. At the same time, our analysis suggests that PPP and FPUC helped to significantly mitigate the negative effects of the pandemic for small businesses by, respectively, alleviating financial constraints and stimulating demand for local services.
20 citations
TL;DR: Li et al. as mentioned in this paper used the 2017 China Household Finance Survey (CHFS) to estimate the effect of higher education on entrepreneurship for prime-aged males and found that obtaining any qualification beyond the baseline of compulsory schooling significant increases large business ownership later in life, with the maximum effect corresponding to a 3-fold increase for university graduates.
17 citations
TL;DR: Using the China Family Panel Studies, this article identified the subjects studied by vocational college and university graduates, with the latter group further divided into ordinary and key universities, and the former group further classified into four types of universities.
Abstract: Using the China Family Panel Studies, we identify the subjects studied by vocational college and university graduates, with the latter group further divided into ordinary and key universities. Whil...
17 citations
TL;DR: In this article, the authors draw lessons from the COVID-19 pandemic for the relationship between data-driven decision making and global development, and the lessons are that users should keep in mind the shifting...
Abstract: This paper draws lessons from the COVID-19 pandemic for the relationship between data-driven decision making and global development. The lessons are that (i) users should keep in mind the shifting ...
17 citations
Posted Content•
TL;DR: In this paper, the authors assess whether the voter turnout in the 2020 local government elections in Italy was affected by the COVID-19 pandemic by exploiting the variation among municipalities in the intensity of the outbreak as measured by the mortality rate among the elderly.
Abstract: The COVID-19 pandemic has increased the risk of participating in public events, among them elections. We assess whether the voter turnout in the 2020 local government elections in Italy was affected by the COVID-19 pandemic. We do so by exploiting the variation among municipalities in the intensity of the COVID-19 outbreak as measured by the mortality rate among the elderly. We find that a 1 percentage point increase in the elderly mortality rate decreased the voter turnout by 0.5 percentage points, with no gender differences in the behavioural response. The effect was especially strong in densely populated municipalities. We do not detect statistically significant heterogeneous effects between the North and the South or among different levels of autonomy from the central government.
15 citations
TL;DR: In this article, the authors investigated the impact of the emergency aid program on the subjective survival probability of self-employed during the COVID-19 pandemic and found that the effect of emergency aid had significant effects.
Abstract: The self-employed are among those facing the highest probability of strong income losses during the COVID-19 pandemic. Governments in many countries introduced support programs to support the self-employed, including the German federal government, which approved a €50bn emergency aid program at the end of March 2020 offering one-off lump-sum payments of up to €15,000 to those facing substantial revenue declines. In this contribution, we investigate the impact of this program using a real-time online-survey data with a total of more than 20,000 observations. We employ propensity score matching, making use of a rich set of variables that influence selection into the treatment and the outcome variable, the subjective survival probability. We observe that the emergency aid program had significant effects, with the subjective survival probability of self-employment being moderately increased. We further reveal important effect heterogeneities with respect to education, risk tolerance, and industries. We also observe positive effects only among those whose application was processed within a few days. Lastly, the positive effect on the survival probability is fading out already two weeks after the emergency aid was granted. Our findings have important policy implications for the design of such support programs in the course of this crisis.
TL;DR: It is concluded that despite the media hype neither massive jobs losses nor a ‘Singularity’ is imminent because current AI, based on deep learning, is expensive and difficult for most businesses to adopt, not only displaces but in fact also create jobs, and may not be the route to a super-intelligence.
Abstract: After a number of AI-winters, AI is back with a boom. There are concerns that it will disrupt society. The immediate concern is whether labor can win a ‘race against the robots’ and the longer-term...
TL;DR: In this paper, the authors investigated the impact of migration shocks on housing conditions and rental prices for the local population and found that the influx of refugees had negative impacts on housing quality and increased the rents paid by local households.
TL;DR: In this paper, the authors study the impact of a conditional cash transfer (CCT) program in Uruguay on the employment of adult members in beneficiary households in a context of high informality.
TL;DR: In this article, the authors focus on bachelor's degree recipients and find that cohorts exposed to higher unemployment risk are more likely to invest in higher-quality human capital investments, and that personal exposure to economic conditions affect individual human capital investment choices.
Abstract: How does personal exposure to economic conditions affect individual human capital investment choices? Focusing on bachelor’s degree recipients, we find that cohorts exposed to higher unemployment r...
TL;DR: For example, this article found a positive association between union membership and job satisfaction in the United States and the United Kingdom, and a positive union association with other aspects of worker well-being including life satisfaction, happiness and trust.
Abstract: Funding Information NorgesForskningsråd Abstract Using data on nearly 2 million respondents from the United States and Europe, we show the partial correlation between union membership and employee job satisfaction is positive and statistically significant. This runs counter to findings in the seminal work of Freeman and Borjas in the 1970s. For the United States, we show the association between union membership and job satisfaction switched from negative to positive in the 2000s. Cohorts with positive union effects over time come to dominate those with negative effects. The negative association between membership and job satisfaction is apparent in cohorts born before the 1960s but turns positive for those born between the 1960s and 1990s. Analyses for Europe since the 2000s confirm the positive association between union membership and worker well-being is apparent elsewhere. Panel estimates for the United Kingdom also find a positive relation between union membership and job satisfaction. A positive union association with other aspects of worker well-being including life satisfaction, happiness and trust is apparent in cross-sectional data for Europe. Union members are also less likely to be stressed, worried, depressed, sad or lonely. The findings have important implications for our understanding of trade unionism.
TL;DR: In this paper, the authors analyze the various approaches put forth in the literature to show whether and to what extent different choices matter empirically and find that the choice between ex-ante and ex-post approaches is crucial and has a substantial influence on inequality of opportunity country orderings.
Abstract: Recent literature has suggested many ways of measuring equality of opportunity. We analyze in a systematic manner the various approaches put forth in the literature to show whether and to what extent different choices matter empirically. Drawing on data for most European countries for 2005 and 2011, we find that the choice between ex-ante and ex-post approaches is crucial and has a substantial influence on inequality of opportunity country orderings. Growth regressions also illustrate the potential relevance of conceptual choices.
TL;DR: In this article, the authors show that whether one can rationalize rational expectations is equivalent to the distribution of realizations being a mean-preserving spread of the distributions of beliefs, which can then be rewritten as a system of many moment inequality and equality constraints.
Abstract: In this paper, we build a new test of rational expectations based on the marginal distributions of realizations and subjective beliefs. This test is widely applicable, including in the common situation where realizations and beliefs are observed in two different data sets that cannot be matched. We show that whether one can rationalize rational expectations is equivalent to the distribution of realizations being a mean‐preserving spread of the distribution of beliefs. The null hypothesis can then be rewritten as a system of many moment inequality and equality constraints, for which tests have been recently developed in the literature. The test is robust to measurement errors under some restrictions and can be extended to account for aggregate shocks. Finally, we apply our methodology to test for rational expectations about future earnings. While individuals tend to be right on average about their future earnings, our test strongly rejects rational expectations.
Rational expectations test subjective expectations data combination C12 D84 E24
TL;DR: In this paper, a method for estimating production-function parameters that can be applied in differentiated-product industries with endogenous quality and variety choice was developed, based on data on physical quantities of outputs and inputs from the Colombian manufacturing survey.
Abstract: This paper develops a new method for estimating production-function parameters that can be applied in differentiated-product industries with endogenous quality and variety choice. We take advantage of data on physical quantities of outputs and inputs from the Colombian manufacturing survey, focusing on producers of rubber and plastic products. Assuming constant elasticities of substitution of outputs and inputs within firms, we aggregate from the firm-product to the firm level and show how quality and variety choices may bias standard estimators. Using real exchange rates and variation in the "bite" of the national minimum wage, we construct external instruments for materials and labor choices. We implement a simple two-step instrumental-variables method, first estimating a difference equation to recover the materials and labor coefficients and then estimating a levels equation to recover the capital coefficient. Under the assumption that the instruments are uncorrelated with firms' quality and variety choices, this method yields consistent estimates, free of the quality and variety biases we have identified. Our point estimates differ from those of existing methods and changes in our preferred productivity estimator perform relatively well in predicting future export growth.
TL;DR: In this article, the authors conclude that if the feminization of farming is to improve female empowerment and also household food security, it will require critical policy interventions in the agricultural sector and beyond.
TL;DR: Gender-specific effects of welfare reform on skipping school, fighting, damaging property, stealing, hurting others, smoking, alcohol, marijuana, and other illicit drugs are identified.
Abstract: This study investigates effects of welfare reform in the United States on the next generation. Most previous studies of effects of welfare reform on adolescents focused on high-school dropout of girls or fertility; little is known about how welfare reform has affected other teenage behaviors or boys. We use a difference-in-difference-in-differences framework to identify gender-specific effects of welfare reform on skipping school, fighting, damaging property, stealing, hurting others, smoking, alcohol, marijuana, and other illicit drugs. Welfare reform led to increases in delinquent behaviors of boys as well as increases in substance use of boys and girls, with substantially larger effects for boys.
TL;DR: In this paper, the authors used the CDC life tables for 2010 to construct joint and survivor life expectancy measures for randomly formed couples, defined by age, race and ethnicity, and education.
Abstract: Individual life expectancies provide information for individuals making retirement decisions and for policy makers. For couples, analogous measures are the expected years both spouses will be alive (joint life expectancy) and the expected years the surviving spouse will be a widow or widower (survivor life expectancy). Using individual life expectancies to calculate summary measures for couples is intuitively appealing but yield misleading results, overstating joint life expectancy and dramatically understating survivor life expectancies. This implies that standard "individual life cycle models" are misleading for couples and that "couple life cycle models" must be substantially more complex. Using the CDC life tables for 2010, we construct joint and survivor life expectancy measures for randomly formed couples. The couples we form are defined by age, race and ethnicity, and education. Due to assortative marriage, inequalities in individual life expectancies are compounded into inequalities in joint and survivor life expectancies. We also calculate life expectancy measures for randomly formed couples for the 1930-2010 decennial years. Trends over time show how the relative rate of decrease in the mortality rates of men and women affect joint and survivor life expectancies. Because our couple life expectancy measures are based on randomly formed couples, they do not capture the effects of differences in spouses' premarital characteristics (apart from sex, age, race and ethnicity, and, in some cases, education) or of correlations in spouses' experiences or behaviors during marriage. However, they provide benchmarks which have been sorely lacking in the public discourse.
Posted Content•
TL;DR: In this paper, the authors place the Great Recession in historical context and trace the path of the recovery, studying its different phases and how different groups of workers were impacted in each phase.
Abstract: Prior to 2020, the Great Recession was the most important macroeconomic shock to the United States economy in generations. Millions lost jobs and homes. At its peak, one in ten workers who wanted a job could not find one. On an annual basis, the economy contracted by more than it had since the Great Depression. A slow and steady recovery followed the Great Recession's official end in the summer of 2009, but because it was slow and the depth of the recession so deep, it took years to reduce slack in labor markets. But because the slow-and-steady recovery lasted so long, many pre-recession peaks were exceeded, and eventually real wage growth began to accumulate for workers across the distribution. In fact, the business cycle (including recession and recovery) beginning in December 2007 was one of the better periods of real wage growth in many decades, with the bulk of that coming in the last years of the recovery. We place the Great Recession in historical context and trace the path of the recovery, studying its different phases and how different groups of workers were impacted in each phase. We also discuss the response of fiscal and monetary policy to the Great Recession, and draw lessons for the future.
Institutional subscribers to the NBER working paper series, and residents of developing countries may download this paper without additional charge at www.nber.org.
TL;DR: This work documents employment changes, coping strategies, and welfare of garment factory workers in Ethiopia’s largest industrial park during the early stages of the Coronavirus Disease 2019 pandemic, and suggests significant changes in employment and high levels of migration away from urban areas to rural areas if women are no longer working.
TL;DR: In this paper, the benefits of body-worn cameras are compared to the costs of this new technology and it is shown that one-quarter of the estimated benefits accrue to government budgets directly.
Abstract: Body-worn cameras (BWCs) are an increasingly common tool for police oversight, accountability, and transparency, yet there remains uncertainty about their impacts on policing outcomes. This paper reviews what we know about the benefits of BWCs and how those benefits compare to the costs of this new technology. We make two contributions relative to existing research. First, we update prior meta-analyses of studies of the impacts of BWCs on policing outcomes to incorporate the most recent, and largest, studies carried out to date in this literature. This additional information provides additional support for the idea that cameras may affect a number of policing outcomes that are important from a social welfare perspective, particularly police use of force. Second, we carry out a benefit-cost analysis of BWCs, as financial barriers are often cited as a key impediment to adoption by police departments. Our baseline estimate for the benefit-cost ratio of BWCs is 4.95. Perhaps as much as one-quarter of the estimated benefits accrue to government budgets directly, which suggests the possibility that this technology could, from the narrow perspective of government budgets, even pay for itself.
Institutional subscribers to the NBER working paper series, and residents of developing countries may download this paper without additional charge at www.nber.org.
TL;DR: In this article, the savings and employment effects of the asset means-test in US income support programs using a structural life-cycle model with productivity, disability, and unemployment risk were investigated.
Abstract: This paper studies the savings and employment effects of the asset means‐test in US income support programs using a structural life‐cycle model with productivity, disability, and unemployment risk. An asset means‐test incentivizes low‐income households to hold few financial assets making them vulnerable to predictable and unpredictable income changes. Moreover, it incentivizes relatively productive households that happen to have few financial assets to leave the labor force. However, it allows for relative generous transfers to households in most need. Moreover, it counteracts relatively productive households leaving the labor force after the age of 50. In terms of the welfare of an unborn household, the asset means‐test that optimally trades off these effects is $150,000, and abolishing it is close to optimal.
Means‐tested programs public insurance incomplete markets D91 I38 J26
TL;DR: In this paper, the authors used data from social security records and an event study approach to estimate the child penalty in Spain, looking at disparities for women and men across different labor outcomes following the birth of the first child.
Abstract: Using data from social security records and an event study approach, we estimate the child penalty in Spain, looking at disparities for women and men across different labor outcomes following the birth of the first child. Our findings show that, the year after the first child is born, mothers’ annual earnings drop by 11% while men’s remain unchanged. The gender gap is even larger 10 years after birth. Our estimate of the long-run child penalty in earnings equals 28%, similar to those found for Denmark, Finland, Sweden or the USA. In addition, we identify channels that may drive this phenomenon, including reductions in working days and shifts to part-time or fixed-term contracts. Finally, we provide evidence of heterogeneous responses in earnings and labor market participation by educational level: college-educated women react to motherhood more on the intensive margin (working part-time), while non-college-educated women are relatively more likely to do so in the extensive margin (working fewer days).
TL;DR: In this paper, a randomized experiment among poor entrepreneurs tested the impact of exogenously inducing higher financial aspirations in a setting where most of the participants fell far short of reaching these goals.
Abstract: A randomized experiment among poor entrepreneurs tested the impact of exogenously inducing higher financial aspirations In theory, raising aspirations could have positive effects by inducing higher effort, but could also reduce effort if unmet aspirations lead to frustration Treatment resulted in more ambitious savings goals, but nearly all individuals fell far short of reaching these goals Two years later, treated individuals had not saved more, and actually had lower borrowing and business investments Treatment also reduced belief in the amount of control over one’s life Setting aspirations too high can lead to frustration, leading individuals to reduce their economic investments
Institutional subscribers to the NBER working paper series, and residents of developing countries may download this paper without additional charge at wwwnberorg
TL;DR: This article found that parent influences, particularly parents' occupations, may influence individuals' entry into the teaching profession and contribute to the relatively static demographic composition of the teaching workforce, contributing to a relatively stable demographic composition.
Abstract: Parental influences, particularly parents’ occupations, may influence individuals’ entry into the teaching profession. This mechanism may contribute to the relatively static demographic composition...