International Food Policy Research Institute

Abstract: 1. Unhealthy and unsustainably produced food poses a global risk to people and the planet. More than 820 million people have insufficient food and many more consume an unhealthy diet that contributes to premature death and morbidity. Moreover, global food production is the largest pressure caused by humans on Earth, threatening local ecosystems and the stability of the Earth system. 2. Current dietary trends, combined with projected population growth to about 10 billion by 2050, will exacerbate risks to people and planet. The global burden of non-communicable diseases is predicted to worsen and the effects of food production on greenhouse-gas emissions, nitrogen and phosphorus pollution, biodiversity loss, and water and land use will reduce the stability of the Earth system. 3. Transformation to healthy diets from sustainable food systems is necessary to achieve the UN Sustainable Development Goals and the Paris Agreement, and scientific targets for healthy diets and sustainable food production are needed to guide a Great Food Transformation. 4. Healthy diets have an appropriate caloric intake and consist of a diversity of plant-based foods, low amounts of animal source foods, unsaturated rather than saturated fats, and small amounts of refined grains, highly processed foods, and added sugars. 5. Transformation to healthy diets by 2050 will require substantial dietary shifts, including a greater than 50% reduction in global consumption of unhealthy foods, such as red meat and sugar, and a greater than 100% increase in consumption of healthy foods, such as nuts, fruits, vegetables, and legumes. However, the changes needed differ greatly by region. 6. Dietary changes from current diets to healthy diets are likely to substantially benefit human health, averting about 10·8–11·6 million deaths per year, a reduction of 19·0–23·6%. 7. With food production causing major global environmental risks, sustainable food production needs to operate within the safe operating space for food systems at all scales on Earth. Therefore, sustainable food production for about 10 billion people should use no additional land, safeguard existing biodiversity, reduce consumptive water use and manage water responsibly, substantially reduce nitrogen and phosphorus pollution, produce zero carbon dioxide emissions, and cause no further increase in methane and nitrous oxide emissions. 8. Transformation to sustainable food production by 2050 will require at least a 75% reduction of yield gaps, global redistribution of nitrogen and phosphorus fertiliser use, recycling of phosphorus, radical improvements in efficiency of fertiliser and water use, rapid implementation of agricultural mitigation options to reduce greenhouse-gas emissions, adoption of land management practices that shift agriculture from a carbon source to sink, and a fundamental shift in production priorities. 9. The scientific targets for healthy diets from sustainable food systems are intertwined with all UN Sustainable Development Goals. For example, achieving these targets will depend on providing high-quality primary health care that integrates family planning and education on healthy diets. These targets and the Sustainable Development Goals on freshwater, climate, land, oceans, and biodiversity will be achieved through strong commitment to global partnerships and actions. 10. Achieving healthy diets from sustainable food systems for everyone will require substantial shifts towards healthy dietary patterns, large reductions in food losses and waste, and major improvements in food production practices. This universal goal for all humans is within reach but will require adoption of scientific targets by all sectors to stimulate a range of actions from individuals and organisations working in all sectors and at all scales.

Abstract: This study identifies the major methods used by farmers to adapt to climate change in the Nile Basin of Ethiopia, the factors that affect their choice of method, and the barriers to adaptation. The methods identified include use of different crop varieties, tree planting, soil conservation, early and late planting, and irrigation. Results from the discrete choice model employed indicate that the level of education, gender, age, and wealth of the head of household; access to extension and credit; information on climate, social capital, agroecological settings, and temperature all influence farmers’ choices. The main barriers include lack of information on adaptation methods and financial constraints.

Abstract: Summary Acceleration of progress in nutrition will require effective, large-scale nutrition-sensitive programmes that address key underlying determinants of nutrition and enhance the coverage and effectiveness of nutrition-specific interventions. We reviewed evidence of nutritional effects of programmes in four sectors—agriculture, social safety nets, early child development, and schooling. The need for investments to boost agricultural production, keep prices low, and increase incomes is undisputable; targeted agricultural programmes can complement these investments by supporting livelihoods, enhancing access to diverse diets in poor populations, and fostering women's empowerment. However, evidence of the nutritional effect of agricultural programmes is inconclusive—except for vitamin A from biofortification of orange sweet potatoes—largely because of poor quality evaluations. Social safety nets currently provide cash or food transfers to a billion poor people and victims of shocks (eg, natural disasters). Individual studies show some effects on younger children exposed for longer durations, but weaknesses in nutrition goals and actions, and poor service quality probably explain the scarcity of overall nutritional benefits. Combined early child development and nutrition interventions show promising additive or synergistic effects on child development—and in some cases nutrition—and could lead to substantial gains in cost, efficiency, and effectiveness, but these programmes have yet to be tested at scale. Parental schooling is strongly associated with child nutrition, and the effectiveness of emerging school nutrition education programmes needs to be tested. Many of the programmes reviewed were not originally designed to improve nutrition yet have great potential to do so. Ways to enhance programme nutrition-sensitivity include: improve targeting; use conditions to stimulate participation; strengthen nutrition goals and actions; and optimise women's nutrition, time, physical and mental health, and empowerment. Nutrition-sensitive programmes can help scale up nutrition-specific interventions and create a stimulating environment in which young children can grow and develop to their full potential.

Abstract: Simple indicators reflecting diet quality for young children are needed both for programs and in some research contexts. Measures of dietary diversity are relatively simple and were shown to be associated with nutrient adequacy and nutritional status. However, dietary diversity also tends to increase with income and wealth; thus, the association between dietary diversity and child nutrition may be confounded by socioeconomic factors. We used data from 11 recent Demographic and Health Surveys (DHS) to examine the association between dietary diversity and height-for-age Z-scores (HAZ) for children 6-23 mo old, while controlling for household wealth/welfare and several other potentially confounding factors. Bivariate associations between dietary diversity and HAZ were observed in 9 of the 11 countries. Dietary diversity remained significant as a main effect in 7 countries in multivariate models, and interacted significantly with other factors (e.g., child age, breast-feeding status, urban/rural location) in 3 of the 4 remaining countries. Thus, dietary diversity was significantly associated with HAZ, either as a main effect or in an interaction, in all but one of the countries analyzed. These findings suggest that there is an association between child dietary diversity and nutritional status that is independent of socioeconomic factors, and that dietary diversity may indeed reflect diet quality. Before dietary diversity can be recommended for widespread use as an indicator of diet quality, additional research is required to confirm and clarify relations between various dietary diversity indicators and nutrient intake, adequacy, and density, for children with differing dietary patterns.

Abstract: This paper examines the impact of pre-school malnutrition on subsequent human capital formation in rural Zimbabwe using a maternal fixed effects - instrumental variables (MFE-IV) estimator with a long term panel data set. Representations of civil war and drought shocks are used to identify differences in pre-school nutritional status across siblings. Improvements in height-for-age in pre-schoolers are associated with increased height as a young adult and number of grades of schooling completed. Had the median pre-school child in this sample had the stature of a median child in a developed country, by adolescence, she would be 3.4 centimeters taller, had completed an additional 0.85 grades of schooling and would have commenced school six months earlier. © 2006 Oxford University Press.