Showing papers by "International Food Policy Research Institute published in 1985"

The impact of the green revolution and prospects for the future

Abstract: This article addresses some of the issues considered to be of great importance for continued success of the Green Revolution. The most recent data on its impact on food production are discussed first. Then follows a discussion of the impact on production fluctuation. Current evidence of the impact on poverty and nutrition is summarized in the third section. Recent research has shown that the multiplier or linkage effects of technological change may be very important for assuring a desirable path of self-sustaining growth. This issue is dealt with in the fourth section, followed by a discussion of the role of women in technological change, an important growth as well as equity issue which has received little attention until recently. Then follows a brief assessment of the actual and potential environmental effects. A number of other issues with important implications for the future contribution of technological change, such as future control over germplasm, organization of and control over the international agricultural research institutes, the needs for institutional and policy changes in many developing countries, and the need for new technology to facilitate a solution to the acute food problem in Sub-Saharan Africa, are discussed in the last section

The effect of fertiliser on risk: a heteroscedastic production function with measurable stochastic inputs

Abstract: The sources of production risk are many and diverse in nature. Estimating risk as a black box, without explicit recognition of its sources, can lead to inferior estimates of optimal inputs under risk aversion. In this paper, a method is presented for estimating production functions with measurable stochastic inputs and for generating the parameters of the probability distributions of yield for various environments and input levels. Based on this method, it appears that moderate risk aversion can account for a 6.7 per cent to 16.7 per cent reduction in nitrogen use (relative to the risk-neutral solution) for selected rice producing areas of the Philippines. Estimating optimal inputs without environment specific information about the sources of risk leads to large errors. This underscores the value of collecting information about the sources of risk and of exercising caution when such information is not available.

SOURCES OF INCREASED VARIABILITY IN WORLD CEREAL PRODUCTION SINCE THE 1960s

Abstract: Recent growth in world cereal production has been accompanied by a more than proportional increase in the standard deviation of production. This study applies variance decomposition procedures to data on crop production by major geographical regions of the world to analyse the sources of this increased instability. It is found that the increase in aggregate production variability is predominantly due to increased yield variability and to a simultaneous loss in offsetting patterns of variation in yields between crops and regions. These changes are probably associated with the sharp increase in the variability of world cereal and oil prices since the early 1970s and with the more widespread adoption of improved seed/fertiliser intensive technologies.

The place of agricultural research in the development of sub‐Saharan Africa

Abstract: SUMMARY The agricultural research policy issue in sub-Saharan Africa can be addressed by seeking to explain a paradox. Rates of return to agricultural research have been shown to be large. By the standards of the developing world, expenditure on such research is high in sub-Saharan Africa, yet agricultural growth has been notoriously slow. There are two explanations. First, there is less agricultural research in most of sub-Saharan Africa than there appears to be. Second, it is less good at producing output-orientated results than other poor countries. Much of the problem lies in its nature. Difficulties in attaining critical mass are aggravated by higher turnover, loss of benefits to neighbouring countries and dispersion of scientists. The latter raises questions of research relevance and congruence. SOMMAIRE On peut traiter du probleme de la politique de recherche agricole en Afrique subsaharienne en essayant d'expliquer un paradoxe. On a montre que le taux de rentabilite de la recherche agricole est important. Compare au niveau des pays en developpement, les depenses pour de telles recherches en Afrique subsaharienne sont elevees, pourtant la croissance agricole a ete notoirement lente. Il y a deux explications: d'abord, il y a moins de recherche agricole dans la plupart de l'Afrique subsaharienne qu'il n'y parait. Deuxiemement, ces recherches ne sont pas aussi utiles, quand il s'agit de resultats orientes vers le rendement, que celles d'autres pays pauvres. La plus grande partie du probleme vient de leur nature. Les difficultes pour atteindre la masse critique sont aggravees par un important roulement, des pertes de benefices allant aux pays voisins et la dispersion des savants. Ce dernier point pose des questions de pertinence et de convenance de la recherche. RESUMEN El tema de la politica de investigacion agricola en la region del sub-Sahara del Africa puede ser encarado mediante un intento por explicar una paradoja. Las tasas de retorno de la investigacion agricola han demostrado ser altas. De acuerdo a los patrones del mundo desarrollado el gasto en estas investigaciones es alto en la region del sub-Sahara del Africa y sin embargo el crecimiento agricola ha sido notoriamente lento. Al respecto se ha dado dos explicaciones. En primer lugar hay menos investigacion agricola en gran parte de la region del sub-Sahara del Africa de lo que aparece. En segundo lugar, en comparacion con otros paises pobres tienen una orientacion menos marcada hacia la produccion de resultados. Parte importante del problema descansa en su naturaleza. Las dificultades para conseguir una acumulacion de resultados se ven agravadas por una alta rotacion de personal, por la perdida de beneficios hacia los paises vecinos y por la dispersion de cientificos. Esto ultimo plantea interrogantes acerca de la relevancia y la congruencia de la investigacion.

Statistical Significance of Indicators of Efficiency and Incentives: Examples from West African Agriculture

Abstract: Indicators of efficiency and incentives derived from trade theory, such as the domestic resource cost coefficient (DRC) and effective protection (EP), are generally presented as simple means. Analysis of their distributions, using farm data on millet and sorghum production from West Africa, shows them to be highly variable and, in some cases, to be significantly skewed. The analysis also shows the indicators to be highly elastic to changes in such parameters as input and output prices. If this variability is not considered when making inferences from such data, policy recommendations can be seriously misleading because they are based on different farming populations.

Biological Technology and Agricultural Policy: An Assessment of Azolla in Philippine Rice Production

Abstract: Concerns about external debt and energy security have motivated several developing countries to develop biological technologies to substitute for petrochemical inputs. This paper examines the economic feasibility of azolla as a source of nitrogen in Philippine rice production. Green manuring with azolla is found not to be cost effective. Substantial savings from intercropping with azolla can be realized only if the cost of nitrogen from azolla is compared with the price of nitrogen from ammonium sulfate, but not if urea is used as the basis of comparison. Farmers would benefit more from liberalization of import controls on urea. Additional research is needed to develop appropriate chemical‐saving systems before investing heavily in extension.

Constraints on Oxen Cultivation in the Sahel: Reply

Abstract: We welcome the comment by Crawford and Lassiter on our earlier paper, which was based on fieldwork completed in 1977. As they point out, the labor requirement coefficients for maintaining a pair of oxen under eastern Burkina Faso conditions were guesstimates based on experience with range herds, subject to all the well-known problems of attributing herd size overhead on a per capita basis.' This was necessary because farmers did not use cattle for draft cultivation in Delgado's fieldwork zone, despite three decades of extension to the contrary. Since the time our article was written, the commentators have been major contributors to a growing literature on the impact of animal traction based on empirical work somewhat to the east of Delgado's research zone (Lassiter, Barrett et al.). They therefore have a potentially major contribution to make to our understanding of a complex, and very important, puzzle in Sahelian agricultural development. Generally, we accept two of Crawford and Lassiter's points. First, it appears on the basis of their empirical results that maintenance times for a pair of oxen are lower than we estimated originally. Second, other constraints, such as high overhead investment, long learning periods, liquidity constraints, risk, and failure of institutional support systems, are undoubtedly important issues in explaining low adoption rates. Of course the second point in no way contradicts our earlier assertion that lack of profitability within a reasonable time span is a sufficient, if not necessary, explanation of nonadoption. However, we have considerable difficulty with the gist of Crawford and Lassiter's other points and with their interpretation of the significance of their results generally. In fact, we still feel that the main message of our earlier article is correct. This was that the opportunity cost of farm resources tied up in oxen cultivation technology is prohibitive under the conditions of eastern Burkina Faso in the late 1970s. Thus, the main policy issues are the adequacy of technologies proposed and incentives, not the suitability of support institutions such as extension, as implied by the comment. First, lack of financial profitability over a fourto six-year period, as stated by Crawford and Lassiter, surely is a sufficient condition for nonadoption of a technology by Sahelian smallholders. Second, Crawford and Lassiter's comments, and the work on which they are based, only assess the financial returns to oxen cultivation in a multiyear perspective (Lassiter, Barrett et al.). Their contention is that, given enough time, the enterprise will become financially profitable. Presumably, this is offered as a reason for forebearance by farmers and subsidies by the state. However, the real issue, the opportunity cost of these investments, is not mentioned. It is regrettable that Crawford and Lassiter do not explore the financial opportunity cost at the household level of using oxen for cultivation. Our article hypothesized that this financial opportunity cost was incurred through diversion of labor away from cropping to team maintenance. Data in Lassiter and Barrett et al. suggest that this is not a problem. However, the true opportunity cost problem may be, in fact, only slightly different. Their detailed data on sources of farm household income show that for oxen cultivation, mean nonfarm income was nearly three times as high for hoe farm households as for oxen cultivation households (Barrett et al., p. 75). Thus, we believe that Crawford and Lassiter's implication that "ATO adopters in Upper Volta ... [had] proportionally more nonfarm cash income than nonadopters," because of the existence of relatively larger households among the adopters, is misleading. Furthermore, given that oxen cultivation households were 67% larger on average than hoe cultivation households (Barrett et al., p. 74), it appears that nonfarm income per person in the hoe households was nearly five times as high as in oxen cultivation households. Using Barrett et al.'s data for the twenty-four hoe farms and the forty-four oxen farms that are truly comparable, coming from the same locations, it can be shown that total household income per active worker for the hoe farmers was 12% above that for oxen workers (Delgado 1984). Furthermore, the source of this difference lay not in the direct financial costs of oxen maintenance but in the relatively much higher income from nonagricultural trading and artisanal activities by hoe farmers. Since these activities require both capital and dry season labor, as does maintenance of a plow team and equipment, this is strongly supportive of the prohibitive financial opportunity cost of resources hypothesis, although small sample size must be kept in mind. Christopher L. Delgado is Coordinator for African Research at the International Food Policy Research Institute, Washington DC. John McIntire is an economist at the International Livestock Center for Africa, Addis Ababa, Ethiopia. Views expressed are strictly personal. 1 The Republic of Upper Volta was renamed "Burkina Faso" on 4 Aug. 1984.

Does Increasing Agricultural Exports Raise Income Instability? An Empirical Note

Abstract: Recent discussions of food security issues for developing countries have drawn attention to short-term fluctuations in effective demand, especially of the low-income households, as a critical area for policy analysis. Real income instability is presumed to be particularly acute in the rural areas, given fluctuating agricultural production and volatile international markets for primary commodities. This paper provides a systematic examination of income variability in food and export crop production, developing a suitable framework of analysis and using it to investigate the instability of total agricultural crop income in the Philippines and how it has been affected by the marked increase in the share of export crops over the postwar period. Some policy implications of the empirical results are briefly considered.