Showing papers by "International Food Policy Research Institute published in 2002"

Child Feeding Practices Are Associated with Child Nutritional Status in Latin America: Innovative Uses of the Demographic and Health Surveys

Abstract: Data from the Demographic and Health Surveys (DHS) for 5 Latin American countries (7 data sets) were used to explore the feasibility of creating a composite feeding index and to examine the association between feeding practices and child height-for-age Z-scores (HAZ). The variables used for the index were as follows: current breast-feeding, use of complementary foods and liquids in the past 24 h, frequency of use over the past week and feeding frequency. The index was made age specific for 6- to 9-, 9- to 12- and 12- to 36-mo-old age groups, and age-specific feeding terciles were created. Bivariate analyses showed that feeding practices were strongly and significantly associated with child HAZ in all 7 data sets, especially after 12 mo of age. Differences in HAZ between child feeding terciles remained significant after controlling for potentially confounding influences, for all countries except Bolivia. Multiple regression analyses also revealed that better feeding practices were more important for children of lower, compared with higher socioeconomic status (in Colombia 1995 and Nicaragua 1998); among children of Ladino (Spanish speaking) compared with indigenous origin (in Guatemala 1995); and among children whose mothers had primary schooling compared with mothers with no schooling, or mothers with higher than primary school level (Peru 1996). The data available in DHS data sets can thus be used effectively to create a composite child feeding index and to identify vulnerable groups that could be targeted by nutrition education and behavior change interventions.

The new institutional economics: applications for agricultural policy research in developing countries

Abstract: This paper summarizes the potential contributions of the new institutional economics to agricultural policy research, with particular emphasis to developing countries. The paper starts by providing an overview of the new institutional economics and its several branches of thought. It then describes the future challenges facing world agriculture and shows the potential applications of new institutional and transaction costs economics to agricultural policy analysis in this new world environment. The paper concludes by providing specific agricultural market research issues that can be analysed using the new institutional economics. As a dynamic school of thought, the new institutional economics offers exciting opportunities to answer some of the economic problems that neo-classical economics has found difficult to address.

Plant Breeding: A New Tool for Fighting Micronutrient Malnutrition

Abstract: The final permanent solution to micronutrient malnutrition in developing countries is a substantial improvement in dietary quality-higher consumption of pulses, fruits, vegetables, fish and animal products that the poor already desire but cannot presently afford. Meanwhile breeding staple foods that are dense in minerals and vitamins provides a low-cost, sustainable strategy for reducing levels of micronutrient malnutrition. Getting plants to do the work of fortification, referred to as biofortification, can reach relatively remote rural populations that conventional interventions are not now reaching and can even have benefits for increased agricultural productivity. Biofortification, thus, complements conventional interventions. The symposium articles discuss several examples of ongoing research projects to develop and disseminate nutrient-dense staple food crops and issues that remain to be resolved before successful implementation can be attained.

Global water demand and supply projections: Part 1 - A modeling approach

Abstract: This paper presents a modeling approach for projections of water demand and supply for domestic, industrial, livestock, and irrigation at the basin or country level in a global scope. Particular emphasis is put on simulating water availability for crops taking into account total renewable water, non-irrigation water demand, water supply infrastructure, and economic and environmental policies at the basin or country level. This paper focuses on concepts and methodology involved in the modeling exercise. Data assessment and results are presented in a companion paper (Rosegrant and Cai, 2002).

A framework for sustainability analysis in water resources management and application to the Syr Darya Basin

Abstract: [1] Sustainable water management in irrigation-dominated river basins attempts to ensure a long-term, stable, and flexible water supply to meet crop water demands, as well as growing municipal and industrial water demands, while mitigating negative environmental consequences. To achieve this delicate balance, new models are needed which can use indicators of sustainability to guide the decision-making process. This paper presents a new long-term modeling framework which uses quantified sustainability criteria in a long-term optimization model of a basin, ensuring risk minimization in water supply, environmental conservation, equity in water allocation, and economic efficiency in water infrastructure development. “Current” and “future” water supply and demand are combined into a coherent system which takes account of the cumulative effects of short-term water use decisions and deals with the tradeoffs between the benefits of current and future generations. The modeling framework is demonstrated with an application to the Syr Darya River Basin of central Asia. Model results show the effectiveness of this tool for policy analysis in the context of the river basin.

When Economic Reform Goes Wrong: Cashews in Mozambique

Abstract: Mozambique liberalized its cashew sector in the early 1990s in response to pressure from the World Bank. Opponents of the reform have argued that the policy did little to benefit poor cashew farmers while bankrupting factories in urban areas. Using a welfare-theoretic framework, we analyze the available evidence and provide an accounting of the distributional and efficiency consequences of the reform. We estimate that the direct benefits from reducing restrictions on raw cashew exports were of the order $6.6 million annually, or about 0.14% of Mozambique GDP. However, these benefits were largely offset by the costs of unemployment in the urban areas. The net gain to farmers was probably no greater than $5.3 million, or $5.30 per year for the average cashew-growing household. Inadequate attention to economic structure and to political economy seems to account for these disappointing outcomes.

Linking GIS and water resources management models: an object-oriented method

Abstract: Many challenges are associated with the integration of geographic information systems (GISs) with models in specific applications. One of them is adapting models to the environment of GISs. Unique aspects of water resource management problems require a special approach to development of GIS data structures. Expanded development of GIS applications for handling water resources management analysis can be assisted by use of an object oriented approach. In this paper, we model a river basin water allocation problem as a collection of spatial and thematic objects. A conceptual GIS data model is formulated to integrate the physical and logical components of the modeling problem into an operational framework, based on which, extended GIS functions are developed to implement a tight linkage between the GIS and the water resources management model. Through the object-oriented approach, data, models and users interfaces are integrated in the GIS environment, creating great flexibility for modeling and analysis. The concept and methodology described in this paper is also applicable to connecting GIS with models in other fields that have a spatial dimension and hence to which GIS can provide a powerful additional component of the modeler’s tool kit.

Global water demand and supply projections. Part 2. Results and prospects to 2025

Abstract: This paper provides the results from the modeling framework presented by Cai and Rosegrant (2002), including projections of water demand and supply for domestic, industrial, livestock, and irrigati...

Dimensions of Diversity in Modern Spring Bread Wheat in Developing Countries from 1965

Abstract: Diverse and varied crop genetic resources are necessary (though not sufficient) for adequate food production in a rapidly changing world. Since the scientific community first raised public concern several decades ago, modern cultivars have been viewed as the cause of declining diversity in the world's crop genetic resources. This paper tests the hypothesis of increasing genetic uniformity in modern spring bread wheat (Triticum aestivum L.) cultivars from 1965, a year which marks the release of some of the first modern semidwarf cultivars carrying Rht1 and Rht2 genes in the developing world. Results from previously published studies are summarized. Preliminary molecular analyses, and new analyses of cultivar numbers, areas, ages, and genealogies are presented. An estimated 77% of the spring bread wheat area in the developing world today is sown to CIMMYT-related wheats, but this does not imply that they are genetically uniform. The hypothesis of increasing genetic uniformity is tested by assessing changes in the diversity of leading progenitors over three decades, in terms of several dimensions of diversity. Latent dimensions include genetic distance and genealogies. Apparent dimensions include performance with respect to yield potential, maintenance and stability across management (input use), and growing environments. The data are not consistent with the view that the genetic diversity of modern semidwarf wheat grown in the developing world has decreased over time. Moreover, since national programs in developing countries cross CIMMYT lines with their own materials before releasing them, the genetic diversity in their cultivars is at least as great as that present among CIMMYT lines.

The spatial distribution of poverty in Vietnam and the potential for targeting

Abstract: The authors combine household survey and census data to construct a provincial poverty map of Vietnam and evaluate the accuracy of geographically targeted antipoverty programs. First, they estimate per capita expenditure as a function of selected household and geographic characteristics using the 1998 Vietnam Living Standards Survey. Next, they combine the results with data on the same household characteristics from the 1999 census to estimate the incidence of poverty in each province. The results show that rural poverty is concentrated in 10 provinces in the Northern Uplands, 2 provinces in the Central Highlands, and 2 provinces in the Central Coast. The authors use Receiver Operating Characteristics curves to evaluate the effectiveness of geographic targeting. The results show that the existing poor communes system excludes large numbers of poor people, but there is potential for sharpening poverty targeting using a small number of easy-to-follow measure household characteristics.

Do Monetary and Non-Monetary Indicators Tell the Same Story About Chronic Poverty? A Study of Vietnam in the 1990s

Abstract: This paper investigates whether monetary and non-monetary indicators tell the same story about chronic poverty using a unique two-period household panel from Vietnam in the 1990s. Using transition matrices and a simple measure of immobility, we find that monetary poverty is less persistent than malnutrition among adults and stunting among children (although there is some evidence of catch-up among stunted children). Monetary poverty is also found to be less persistent than primary and lower secondary school enrollments. Non-parametric tests on common samples reveal that the distributions of all these poverty indicators are different. Furthermore, defining chronic poverty to occur when an individual is monetarily poor, stunted, malnourished or out of school in both waves of the panel, we find the extent of overlap and correlation between the sub-groups of chronically poor is generally quite low. This implies that expanding the number of dimensions used to identify chronic poverty may not lead to greater clarity about the characteristics of chronic poverty.

Trade liberalisation and regional integration: the search for large numbers

Abstract: We surveyed the empirical literature using multi–country computable general equilibrium (CGE) models to analyse potential and actual regional trade agreements (RTAs). The studies indicate that these RTAs improve welfare, that trade creation greatly exceeds trade diversion, and that they are consistent with further global liberalisation. The welfare gains are bigger when models incorporate aspects of “new trade theory” such as increasing returns, imperfect competition, and links between trade liberalisation, total factor productivity growth, and capital accumulation. We also conjectured that an RTA expands market size and stability, allowing firms to pursue economies of fine specialisation, generating additional “Smithian” efficiency gains.

Commercial Policy Variability, Bindings and Market Access

Abstract: Protection unconstrained by rules often varies substantially over time. Rules-based disciplines, like OECD industrial tariff bindings negotiated under GATT since 1947 and new Uruguay Round bindings on agricultural and services trade and on developing country industrial tariffs, constrain this variability. We examine the theoretical effects of such constraints on the expected cost of protection and offer a formalization of the concept of "market access," emphasizing both the first and second moments of the distribution of protection. As an illustration, we provide a stylized examination of Uruguay Round agricultural bindings.

The road half traveled: agricultural market reform in Sub-Saharan Africa.

Abstract: This article reviews the extensive evidence on agricultural market reforms in Sub-Saharan Africa and summarises the impact reforms have had on market performance, agricultural production, use of modern inputs, and poverty. It offers eight recommendations for completing the reform process and developing a new agenda for agricultural markets in Sub-Saharan Africa. The reform experience in Sub-Saharan Africa has varied widely across countries and crop subsectors. The available evidence shows clear progress in some areas and mixed results in others. Most reforms were only partially implemented and policy reversal was common. Once implemented, however, reforms have increased competition and reduced marketing margins, benefiting both producers and consumers. Reforms have also boosted export crop production. On the other hand, food crop production has stagnated and yields have not improved. Further expansion of private trade is constrained by lack of access to credit, uncertainty about the government’s commitment to reform, and high transaction costs.

Strengthening public safety nets from the bottom up

Abstract: This paper describes ways to build public safety nets to complement and extend informal and private institutions. The most effective policies will combine both transfer systems that are sensitive to existing mechanisms and new institutions for providing insurance and credit, and for generating savings. For poor households, downturns in income can cause severe hardship. In the absence of any insurance mechanisms, all income losses would have to be absorbed by equivalent expenditure reductions. Children may be pulled out of school, or food consumption may be cut to levels that hamper normal activities or retard physical or mental growth of children. As a result, policy needs to take potential crowding out of the informal mechanisms into consideration. The private commercial sector, and market-driven NGOs have potentially valuable roles to play in helping low-income households to insure, particularly with regard to building up savings and obtaining life and weather insurance. At present, most programs remain small due to inappropriate regulations and the lack of global institutions to efficiently diversify regional risk. With both in place, local pro-poor financial institutions can thrive; to build from the bottom up, having the right top-down institutions in place, is clearly a big help.

Impact of global cotton markets on rural poverty in Benin

Abstract: World cotton prices have fallen by about 40 percent over the last two years, focusing attention on the effect of subsidies for cotton growers in depressing prices. This paper combines farm survey data from Benin with assumptions about the decline in farm-level prices to estimate the direct and indirect effects of cotton price reductions on rural income and poverty in Benin. The results indicate that there is a strong link between cotton prices and rural welfare in Benin. A 40 percent reduction in farm-level prices of cotton results in an increase in rural poverty of 8 percentage points in the short-run and 6-7 percentage points in the long run. Based on the estimated marginal propensity to consume tradable goods, the consumption multiplier is in the range of 3.3, meaning that one dollar of reduced spending by cotton growers results in a contraction of 3.3 dollars in overall demand. Finally, econometric analysis of the determinants of the demand for hired agricultural labor suggests that falling cotton prices will not greatly reduce labor demand since the labor intensity of cotton is similar to that of competing crops in Benin. Overall, the study highlights the link between rising subsidies for cotton growers in the U.S. and rural poverty in cotton exporting countries such as Benin.

Global Capital Flows and Financing Constraints

Abstract: Firms often cite financing constraints as one of their primary obstacles to investment. Global capital flows, by bringing in scarce capital, may ease host-country firms' financing constraints. However, if incoming foreign investors borrow heavily from domestic basnks, direct foreign investment (DFI) may exacerbate financing constraints by crowding host country firms out of domestic capital markets. Combininb a unique cross-country firm-level panel with time-series data on restrictions on international transactions and capital flows, we find that different measures of global flows are associated with a reduction in firm-level financing constraints. First, we show that one type of capital inflow--DFI--is associated with a reduction in financing constraints. Second, we test whether restrictions on international transactions affect firms' financing constraints. Our results suggest that only one type of restriction--those on capital account transactions--negatively affect firms' financing constraints. We also show that multinational firms are not financially constrained and do not appear to be sensitive to the level of DFI. This implies that DFI eases financing constraints for non-multinational firms. Finally, we show that DFI only eases financing constraints in the non-G7 countries.

Spot-check Observational Method for Assessing Hygiene Practices: Review of Experience and Implications for Programmes

Abstract: Structured observations, considered to be the method of choice for assessing hygiene practices, are time-consuming and expensive and are subject to reactivity (households modifying their behaviours in the presence of an observer). Hygiene practices also vary from day to day. Spot-checks, an alternative approach for observation, have recently gained increased popularity. In this approach, a list of predetermined conditions is observed at one point in time during a home visit. This paper reviewed experience with spot-checks for measuring hygiene practices and discussed strengths and weaknesses of the approach and its potential usefulness to those undertaking programmes. Review of seven studies carried out in various contexts confirmed that spot-checks are a promising alternative to structured observations, because these are less intrusive, less time-consuming, more economical, and less reactive. These are, however, equally affected by day-to-day variations in practices and conditions, and repeated observations are, thus, recommended. Additional research is needed to assess the validity, reactivity, and repeatability of hygiene indicators derived from spot-checks.

Do direct payments have intertemporal effects on u.s. agriculture

Abstract: The 1996 Federal Agriculture Improvement and Reform (FAIR) Act introduced new instruments of producer supports, including fixed payments, known as “production flexibility contract” payments (PFC), tied to historical “base” acreage and yields. The general issue is whether the PFC payments or decoupled payments to farmers have inter-temporal effects on resource allocation and production to the extent that they have effects on agricultural markets. The purpose of this paper is to contribute to this debate by considering the inter-temporal effects of decoupled payments on market behavior. An economy-wide approach is used because the market effects of those taxed to provide the transfer might offset the market effects of the recipients. If this result obtains, PFC payments can be thought of as an efficient policy instrument to transfer resources from one segment of the population to another with no dead weight losses. Since the real economy is obviously complicated and encumbered with incomplete markets that makes this a complex question, our contribution lies in showing the circumstance, over time, under which market distortions are minimized, and for the case where capital markets are not complete and/or liquidity constraints prevail in agriculture, just how distorting might these payments actually be. We find that, in the short to intermediate run, direct payments tend to cause capital deepening and to increase agricultural output. However, these effects are small. They cause aggregate agricultural production to rise by less than 0.2 percent in the short run. Direct payments are a relatively efficient policy instrument for transferring income from the rest of the economy to farmers, efficient in the sense that they have relatively small effects on agricultural resource allocation and production. In the long run, payments cause no resource allocation and output effects. The only long-term effect of payments is to increase land values and land rental rates.

Developing Country Interests in Agricultural Reforms under the World Trade Organization

Abstract: The gains to developing countries from agricultural reform in developed countries is found to benefit most, even the net food importers, although the gains vary depending on a country's trade pattern This results because the agricultural policy of a small number of developed countries cause the major distortions in world markets, and developing countries whose major share of agricultural trade is with the EU are impacted quite differently than those trading with the US Even though Japan and Korea maintain high trade barriers, these barriers are found to have small effects on developing countries The long-run benefits of reform are found to greatly exceed the short-run gains(This abstract was borrowed from another version of this item)

The Evolution of China's Rural Labor Markets During the Reforms

Abstract: This paper contributes to the assessment of China's rural labor markets, while paying attention to whether these markets are developing in a manner conducive to the nation's modernization. According to our household survey, we find that the rapid increase in off-farm employment has continued and accelerated during the late 1990s. Our analysis shows that migration has become the most prevalent off-farm activity; has become dominated by young and better educated workers; expanded most rapidly in areas that are relatively well-off; and begun to draw workers from portions of the population, such as women, that earlier had been excluded from participation.

Facing the Development Challenge in Mozambique

Abstract: Following Mozambique’s economic collapse in 1986, the country began a wide-ranging process of reform, with the support of the international community. The diagnosis was of an economy that failed to maintain monetary control, consumed beyond its means, focused production excessively on nontraded goods, and relied on inefficient and inflexible microeconomic structures. Nevertheless, Mozambique was also at war. The pace of stabilization and structural adjustment quickened after 1992, when, concurrent with the demise of apartheid, civil strife finally came to an end. After more than 10 years of adjustment, the reform program has now been essentially implemented. Yet, this does not imply, as shown in this study, that sufficient conditions for sustained economic development are in place. Mozambique remains very poor, and even under highly optimistic assumptions about the future, the development process is set to last for decades. This report attempts to respond to some of the basic development challenges facing Mozambique and to provide both qualitative and quantitative insights for policymaking in the years to come. Throughout, the issues addressed are approached from an economy wide perspective.This study forms a part of the multicountry research initiative, Macroeconomic Reforms and Regional Integration in Southern Africa. This initiative covers six countries in the region and pays particular attention to the evaluation of the merits of alternative development strategies. The choice and design of an appropriate development strategy is by no means immediately evident for any developing country. However, for a country with abundant arable land and scarce human and physical capital, such as Mozambique, the role of agriculture in development is particularly interesting. In keeping with the focus on agriculture, a social accounting matrix (SAM) for 1995, with significant agricultural sector detail, was constructed as part of this study. The SAM contains 40 activities, including 13 agricultural and 2 food-processing activities, 3 factors of production, and 2 households (urban and rural). It captures two innovative but fundamental features of the Mozambican economy: high marketing costs for domestic, imported, and exported goods; and the significant prevalence of home consumption, particularly for rural households