Showing papers by "International Food Policy Research Institute published in 2003"

Global food security: challenges and policies.

Abstract: Global food security will remain a worldwide concern for the next 50 years and beyond. Recently, crop yield has fallen in many areas because of declining investments in research and infrastructure, as well as increasing water scarcity. Climate change and HIV/AIDS are also crucial factors affecting food security in many regions. Although agroecological approaches offer some promise for improving yields, food security in developing countries could be substantially improved by increased investment and policy reforms.

Operationalizing Dietary Diversity: A Review of Measurement Issues and Research Priorities

Abstract: Dietary diversity (DD) is universally recognized as a key component of healthy diets There is still, however, a lack of consensus on how to measure and operationalize DD This article reviews published literature on DD, with a focus on the conceptual and operational issues related to its measurement in developing countries Findings from studies of the association between DD and individual nutrient adequacy, child growth and/or household socioeconomic factors are summarized DD is usually measured using a simple count of foods or food groups over a given reference period, but a number of different groupings, classification systems and reference periods have been used This limits comparability and generalizability of findings The few studies that have validated DD against nutrient adequacy in developing countries confirm the well-documented positive association observed in developed countries A consistent positive association between dietary diversity and child growth is also found in a number of countries Evidence from a multicountry analysis suggests that household-level DD diversity is strongly associated with household per capita income and energy availability, suggesting that DD could be a useful indicator of food security The nutritional contribution of animal foods to nutrient adequacy is indisputable, but the independent role of animal foods relative to overall dietary quality for child growth and nutrition remains poorly understood DD is clearly a promising measurement tool, but additional research is required to improve and harmonize measurement approaches and indicators Validation studies are also needed to test the usefulness of DD indicators for various purposes and in different contexts

Rising Consumption of Meat and Milk in Developing Countries Has Created a New Food Revolution

Abstract: People in developing countries currently consume on average one-third the meat and one-quarter of the milk products per capita compared to the richer North, but this is changing rapidly. The amount of meat consumed in developing countries over the past has grown three times as much as it did in the developed countries. The Livestock Revolution is primarily driven by demand. Poor people everywhere are eating more animal products as their incomes rise above poverty level and as they become urbanized. By 2020, the share of developing countries in total world meat consumption will expand from 52% currently to 63%. By 2020, developing countries will consume 107 million metric tons (mmt) more meat and 177 mmt more milk than they did in 1996/1998, dwarfing developed-country increases of 19 mmt for meat and 32 mmt for milk. The projected increase in livestock production will require annual feed consumption of cereals to rise by nearly 300 mmt by 2020. Nonetheless, the inflation-adjusted prices of livestock and feed commodities are expected to fall marginally by 2020, compared to precipitous declines in the past 20 y. Structural change in the diets of billions of people is a primal force not easily reversed by governments. The incomes and nutrition of millions of rural poor in developing countries are improving. Yet in many cases these dietary changes also create serious environmental and health problems that require active policy involvement to prevent irreversible consequences.

Reducing child malnutrition : how far does income growth take us?

Abstract: How rapidly will child malnutrition respond to income growth? This article explores that question using household survey data from 12 countries as well as data on malnutrition rates in a cross-section of countries since the 1970s. Both forms of analysis yield similar results. Increases in income at the household and national levels imply similar rates of reduction in malnutrition. Using these estimates and better than historical income growth rates, the article finds that the millennium development goal of halving the prevalence of underweight children by 2015 is unlikely to be met through income growth alone. What is needed to accelerate reductions in malnutrition is a balanced strategy of income growth and investment in more direct interventions.

Is dietary diversity an indicator of food security or dietary quality? A review of measurement issues and research needs.

Abstract: Dietary diversity is usually measured using a simple count of foods or food groups over a given reference period. Our overview however revealed that studies in developed and developing countries have used a variety of food and food-group classification systems different numbers of foods and food groups and varying reference period lengths (ranging from 1 to 15 days). Research should be conducted to validate and compare indicators based on different methodological approaches. It would also be useful to continue to explore whether indicators based on food groups (a simpler approach) perform as well as those based on single foods in predicting outcomes of interest. (excerpt)

Micronutrient fortification of plants through plant breeding: can it improve nutrition in man at low cost

Abstract: Can commonly-eaten food staple crops be developed that fortify their seeds with essential minerals and vitamins? Can farmers be induced to grow such varieties? If so, would this result in a marked improvement in human nutrition at a lower cost than existing nutrition interventions? An interdisciplinary international effort is underway to breed for mineral- and vitamin-dense varieties of rice, wheat, maize, beans and cassava for release to farmers in developing countries. The biofortification strategy seeks to take advantage of the consistent daily consumption of large amounts of food staples by all family members, including women and children as they are most at risk for micronutrient malnutrition. As a consequence of the predominance of food staples in the diets of the poor, this strategy implicitly targets low-income households. After the one-time investment is made to develop seeds that fortify themselves, recurrent costs are low and germplasm may be shared internationally. It is this multiplier aspect of plant breeding across time and distance that makes it so cost-effective. Once in place, the biofortified crop system is highly sustainable. Nutritionally-improved varieties will continue to be grown and consumed year after year, even if government attention and international funding for micronutrient issues fades. Biofortification provides a truly feasible means of reaching malnourished populations in relatively remote rural areas, delivering naturally-fortified foods to population groups with limited access to commercially-marketed fortified foods that are more readily available in urban areas. Biofortification and commercial fortification are, therefore, highly complementary. Breeding for higher trace mineral density in seeds will not incur a yield penalty. Mineral-packed seeds sell themselves to farmers because, as recent research has shown, these trace minerals are essential in helping plants resist disease and other environmental stresses. More seedlings survive and initial growth is more rapid. Ultimately, yields are higher, particularly in trace mineral-'deficient' soils in arid regions.

Getting Institutions “Right” for Whom? Credit Constraints and the Impact of Property Rights on the Quantity and Composition of Investment

Abstract: Property rights reform is typically hypothesized to boost investment through investment demand and credit supply effects. Yet when the credit supply effect is muted, property rights reform would be expected to induce liquidity-constrained farms to reduce investment in movable capital even as they increase investment in attached capital. This expectation is corroborated by econometric analysis of panel data from Paraguay. While all farmers experience a positive investment demand effect, liquidity-constrained producers correspondingly reduce their demand for movable capital. Given an estimated pattern of wealth-biased liquidity constraints, property rights reform will get institutions “right” for only wealthier producers. Copyright 2003, Oxford University Press.

Methods for microeconometric risk and vulnerability assessments

Abstract: The increasing recognition that there are considerable flows into and out of poverty (Baulch and Hoddinott, 2000) has focused interest in household vulnerability as the basis for a social protection strategy. However, the design and implementation of these schemes is hampered by uncertainty over the meaning of this concept. Vulnerability—like risk and love—means different things to different people; there are many definitions of vulnerability and, seemingly, no consensus on its definition or measurement. One might be forgiven for thinking that the discourse on vulnerability is too confused to support initiatives in the areas of policy and interventions.

Child growth, shocks, and food aid in rural Ethiopia

Abstract: This brief summarizes the results of a gender impact evaluation study, entitled Child growth, shocks, and food aid in rural Ethiopia, conducted between 1995 and 1996 in Ethiopia. The study observed the impact of food aid on child growth and shocks in communities on the child level. Food aid has a positive significant impact on the growth in height of children. The total amount of food aid appears on average to be sufficient to offset the negative effects of plot damage on child growth. Given the fact there remains a massive amount of child stunting, there must be large amounts of mis-targeting of aid. Girls seem to be more resilient to shocks than boys.

Community natural resource management: the case of woodlots in Northern Ethiopia

Abstract: This paper examines the nature of community management of woodlots and investigates the determinants of collective action and its effectiveness in managing woodlots, based on a survey of 100 villages in Tigray, northern Ethiopia. Despite limited current benefits received by community members, the woodlots contribute substantially to community wealth, increasing members' willingness to provide collective effort to manage the woodlots. We find that benefits are greater and problems less on woodlots managed at the village level than those managed at a higher municipality level, and that the average intensity of management is greater on village-managed woodlots. The factors that do significantly affect collective action include population density (higher collective labor input and lower planting density at intermediate than at low or high density), market access (less labor input, planting density and tree survival where market access is better), and presence of external organizations promoting the woodlot (reduces local effort to protect the woodlot and tree survival). The finding of an inverse U-shaped relationship between population density and collective labor input is consistent with induced innovation theory, with the increased labor/land ratio promoting collective effort to invest in resources as population density grows to a moderate level, while incentive problems may undermine collective action at high levels of population density. These findings suggest collective action may be more beneficial and more effective when managed at a more local level, when the role of external organizations is more demand-driven, and when promoted in intermediate population density communities more remote from markets. In higher population density settings and areas closer to markets, private-oriented approaches are likely to be more effective.

Trade Liberalisation and Regional Integration: The Search for Large Numbers

Abstract: We surveyed the empirical literature using multi-country computable general equilibrium (CGE) models to analyse potential and actual regional trade agreements (RTAs). The studies indicate that these RTAs improve welfare, that trade creation greatly exceeds trade diversion, and that they are consistent with further global liberalisation. The welfare gains are bigger when models incorporate aspects of "new trade theory" such as increasing returns, imperfect competition, and links between trade liberalisation, total factor productivity growth, and capital accumulation. We also conjectured that an RTA expands market size and stability, allowing firms to pursue economies of fine specialisation, generating additional "Smithian" efficiency gains.

Structural Change and Economic Growth in China

Abstract: This study develops a new analytical framework to account for sources of rapid economic growth in China. The traditional Solow approach is expanded to include another source of economic growth—structural change. The empirical results show that structural change has contributed to growth significantly by reallocating resources from low-productivity sectors to high-productivity sectors. It is found that the returns to capital investment in both agricultural production and rural enterprises are much higher than those in urban sectors, indicating underinvestment in rural areas. On the other hand, labor productivity in the agricultural sector remains low, a result of the still large surpluses of labor in the sector. Therefore, further development of rural enterprises and an increase in labor flow among sectors and across regions are key to improvements in overall economic efficiency.

Is there a Future for Small Farms

Abstract: Small farms are seriously challenged today in ways that make their future precarious. Marketing chains are changing and becoming more integrated and more demanding of quality and food safety. This is creating new opportunities for farmers who can compete and link to these markets, but threatens to leave many others behind. In developing countries, small farmers also face unfair competition from rich country farmers in many of their export and domestic markets. The viability of many is further undermined by the continuing shrinkage of their average farm size. And the spread of HIV/AIDS is further eroding the number of productive farm family workers, and leaving many children as orphans with limited knowledge about how to farm. Left to themselves, these forces will curtail opportunities for small farms, overly favor large farms, and lead to a premature and rapid exit of many small farms, adding to already serious problems of rural poverty and urban ghettos. If small farmers are to have a viable future, then there is a need for a concerted effort by governments, NGOs, and the private sector to create a more enabling economic environment for their development. Appropriate interventions could unleash significant benefits in the form of pro-poor agricultural growth in many developing countries and more than pay for themselves in terms of their economic and social return. But they do not seem very likely at the moment and current trends are moving in the opposite direction.

Physical and economic efficiency of water use in the river basin: Implications for efficient water management

Abstract: [1] With growing water scarcity and increasing competition across water-using sectors, the need for water savings and more efficient water use has increased in importance in water resources management. Improvement in the physical efficiency of water use is related to water conservation through increasing the fraction of water beneficially used over water applied, while enhancing economic efficiency is a broader concept, seeking the highest economic value of water use through both physical and managerial measures. Physical and economic efficiency measures are both useful indicators for water management at the irrigation system and river basin level. However, the relationship between physical efficiency and economic efficiency is not always clear, and the values of these measures may indicate different directions for water policy and investments in irrigation. Open research questions include, for example, the following: How does the change in responsiveness of water allocation and irrigation technology to economic incentives affect physical and economic irrigation efficiency? What is the impact of a change in irrigation system efficiency on basin physical and economic efficiency? How do changes in water withdrawals affect basin physical and economic efficiency under a given water requirement? To explore these issues, an integrated economic-hydrologic river basin model is applied to the Maipo River Basin in Chile. A series of modeling scenarios is defined, and policy implications based on changes in physical and economic efficiencies for basin-wide irrigation water management are analyzed.

South-North Trade, Intellectual Property Jurisdictions, and Freedom to Operate in Agricultural Research on Staple Crops*

Abstract: International Food Policy Research Institute, Washington D.C. Center for the Application of Molecular Biology to International Agriculture, Canberra University of California, Berkeley The authors are listed alphabetically. Philip Pardey is a senior research fellow and Patricia Zambrano a senior research assistant at the International Food Policy Research Institute, Carol Nottenburg is Director of Intellectual Property at the Center for the Application of Molecular Biology to International Agriculture, and Brian Wright is a professor and Eran Binenbaum a Ph.D. student in the Department of Agricultural and Resource Economics, University of California, Berkeley. Stephen Stohs, Bonwoo Koo, and Yuan Liang provided excellent research assistance, and Agapi Somwaru (USDA, ERS) collaborated with us in compiling the trade data. Richard Jefferson provided invaluable comments on earlier drafts. Research for this paper was made possible, in part, by a grant from the Swedish International Development Agency (Sida).

2. Genetically modified food crops and their contribution to human nutrition and food quality

Abstract: This chapter discusses the potential of biotechnology to improve the health and nutrition of consumers in developing countries In the relatively wealthy countries of Europe, North America and elsewhere, consumers spend perhaps 10% of their income on food For the most part consumers in developed countries are free of classical nutrient deficiencies, although over-consumption is a problem for some Also in relatively wealthy countries there is, in general, good access to affordable medical care to meet health needs and most consumers in rich countries have access to a relatively inexpensive supply of safe and healthy food

Reconciling Household Surveys and National Accounts Data Using a Cross Entropy Estimation Method

Abstract: This paper presents an approach to reconciling household surveys and national accounts data. The problem is how to use the information provided by the national accounts data to re-estimate the household weights used in the survey so that the survey results are consistent with the aggregate data. The estimation approach uses an estimation criterion based on an entropy measure of information. The survey household weights are treated as a prior. New weights are estimated that are close to the prior and that are also consistent with the additional information. This approach is implemented to reconcile household survey data and macro data for Madagascar. The results indicate that the approach is powerful and flexible, supporting the efficient use of information from a variety of sources to reconcile data at different levels of aggregation in a consistent framework.

Formula Approaches for Market Access Negotiations

Abstract: Most of the large tariff reductions achieved in multilateral trade negotiations have involved tariff-cutting formulas such as the 'Swiss' formula. Wide variations in initial tariff rates between active participants, however, call for new approaches under the Doha Development Agenda. This Paper surveys a range of formula options and examines both targeted and flexible applications of the Swiss formula that target tariff escalation and peaks, and would allow policymakers to directly target how far they will move towards free trade, while providing some flexibility for trading off reductions in peak tariffs against reductions in lower-tariff sectors.

Long-term consequences of early childhood malnutrition

Abstract: "This paper examines the impact of preschool malnutrition on subsequent human capital formation in rural Zimbabwe using a maternal fixed effects-instrumental variables (MFE-IV) estimator with a long-term panel data set. Representations of civil war and drought 'shocks' are used to identify differences in preschool nutritional status across siblings. Improvements in height-for-age in preschoolers are associated with increased height as a young adult and number of grades of schooling completed. Had the median preschool child in this sample had the stature of a median child in a developed country, by adolescence, she would be 4.6 centimeters taller and would have completed an additional 0.7 grades of schooling." Authors' Abstract

Technological change and price effects in agriculture: conceptual and comparative perspectives

Abstract: The importance of technological advance to economic growth has become accepted fact. Yet the answers to questions of who adopts new technologies, how quickly, and at what cost to society remain elusive. While these issues are not unique throughout history, the advent of biological and chemical technologies that are both divisible and scale-neutral and the experiences referred to as the "Green Revolution" in the latter-half of the twentieth century throughout much of Asia have fostered a lively and long debate on the growth and particularly the distributional consequences of technological change in the agriculture of developing countries.