Showing papers by "International Food Policy Research Institute published in 2010"

Smart investments in sustainable food production: revisiting mixed crop-livestock systems.

Abstract: Farmers in mixed crop-livestock systems produce about half of the world’s food. In small holdings around the world, livestock are reared mostly on grass, browse, and nonfood biomass from maize, millet, rice, and sorghum crops and in their turn supply manure and traction for future crops. Animals act as insurance against hard times and supply farmers with a source of regular income from sales of milk, eggs, and other products. Thus, faced with population growth and climate change, small-holder farmers should be the first target for policies to intensify production by carefully managed inputs of fertilizer, water, and feed to minimize waste and environmental impact, supported by improved access to markets, new varieties, and technologies.

Biofortification - a sustainable agricultural strategy for reducing micronutrient malnutrition in the global south.

Abstract: Minerals and vitamins in food staples eaten widely by the poor may be increased either through conventional plant breeding or through use of transgenic techniques, a process known as biofortification. HarvestPlus seeks to develop and distribute cultivars of food staples (rice [Oryza sativa L.], wheat [Triticum aestivum L.], maize [Zea mays L.], cassava [Manihot esculenta Crantz], pearl millet [Pennisetum americanum Leeke], beans [Phaseolus vulgaris L.], sweet potato [Ipomoea batatas L.]) that are high in Fe, Zn, and provitamin A through an interdisciplinary global alliance of scientific institutions and implementing agencies in developing and developed countries. Biofortified crops offer a rural-based intervention that, by design, initially reaches these more remote populations, which comprise a majority of the undernourished in many countries, and then penetrates to urban populations as production surpluses are marketed. Thus, biofortification complements fortification and supplementation programs, which work best in centralized urban areas and then reach into rural areas with good infrastructure. Initial investments in agricultural research at a central location can generate high recurrent benefits at low cost as adapted biofortified cultivars become widely available in countries across time at low recurrent costs. Overall, three things must happen for biofortification to be successful. First, the breeding must be successful—high nutrient density must be combined with high yields and high profitability. Second, efficacy must be demonstrated—the micronutrient status of human subjects must be shown to improve when consuming the biofortified cultivars as normally eaten. Third, the biofortified crops must be adopted by farmers and consumed by those suffering from micronutrient malnutrition in significant numbers.

Biofortification of durum wheat with zinc and iron

Abstract: Micronutrient malnutrition affects over 2 billion people in the developing world. Iron (Fe) deficiency alone affects >47% of all preschool aged children globally, often leading to impaired physical growth, mental development, and learning capacity. Zinc (Zn) deficiency, like iron, is thought to affect billions of people, hampering growth and development, and destroying immune systems. In many micronutrient-deficient regions, wheat is the dominant staple food making up >50% of the diet. Biofortification, or harnessing the powers of plant breeding to improve the nutritional quality of foods, is a new approach being used to improve the nutrient content of a variety of staple crops. Durum wheat in particular has been quite responsive to breeding for nutritional quality by making full use of the genetic diversity of Fe and Zn concentrations in wild and synthetic parents. Micronutrient concentration and genetic diversity has been well explored under the HarvestPlus biofortification research program, an...

Radically rethinking agriculture for the 21st century.

Abstract: Population growth, arable land and fresh water limits, and climate change have profound implications for the ability of agriculture to meet this century’s demands for food, feed, fiber, and fuel while reducing the environmental impact of their production. Success depends on the acceptance and use of contemporary molecular techniques, as well as the increasing development of farming systems that use saline water and integrate nutrient flows.

Protected areas reduced poverty in Costa Rica and Thailand

Abstract: As global efforts to protect ecosystems expand, the socioeconomic impact of protected areas on neighboring human communities continues to be a source of intense debate. The debate persists because previous studies do not directly measure socioeconomic outcomes and do not use appropriate comparison groups to account for potential confounders. We illustrate an approach using comprehensive national datasets and quasi-experimental matching methods. We estimate impacts of protected area systems on poverty in Costa Rica and Thailand and find that although communities near protected areas are indeed substantially poorer than national averages, an analysis based on comparison with appropriate controls does not support the hypothesis that these differences can be attributed to protected areas. In contrast, the results indicate that the net impact of ecosystem protection was to alleviate poverty.

The Food, Fuel, and Financial Crises Affect the Urban and Rural Poor Disproportionately: A Review of the Evidence

Abstract: The vulnerability of the urban poor to the recent food and fuel price crisis has been widely acknowledged. The unfolding global financial crisis, which brings higher unemployment and underemployment, is likely to further intensify this vulnerability. This paper reviews the evidence concerning the disproportionate vulnerability of the urban compared with the rural poor to these types of shocks. It reviews some of the unique characteristics of urban life that could make the urban poor particularly susceptible to price and financial shocks and summarizes the evidence regarding the disproportionate vulnerability of the urban poor. The focus is on impacts on poverty, food insecurity, and malnutrition. The review shows that although the urban poor are clearly one of the population groups most affected by the current (and previous) crises, the rural poor, landless, and net buyers are in no better position to confront the crisis without significant suffering. The poorest of the poor are the ones who will be most affected, irrespective of the continent, country, or urban or rural area where they live. The magnitude and severity of their suffering depends on their ability to adapt and on the specific nature, extent, and duration of the coping strategies they adopt. A better understanding of how these coping strategies are used and staggered is critical to help design triggers for action that can prevent households from moving to more desperate measures. Using these early coping strategies as early warning indicators could help prevent dramatic losses in welfare.

Vulnerability of the South African farming sector to climate change and variability: An indicator approach

Abstract: This paper analyses the vulnerability of South African agriculture to climate change and variability by developing a vulnerability index and comparing vulnerability indicators across the nine provinces of the country. Nineteen environmental and socio-economic indicators are identified to reflect the three components of vulnerability: exposure, sensitivity, and adaptive capacity. The results of the study show that the regions most exposed to climate change and variability do not always overlap with those experiencing high sensitivity or low adaptive capacity. Furthermore, vulnerability to climate change and variability is intrinsically linked with social and economic development. The Western Cape and Gauteng provinces, which have high levels of infrastructure development, high literacy rates, and low shares of agriculture in total GDP, are relatively low on the vulnerability index. In contrast, the highly vulnerable regions of Limpopo, Kwazulu-Natal and the Eastern Cape are characterised by densely populated rural areas, large numbers of small-scale farmers, high dependency on rain-fed agriculture and high land degradation. These large differences in the extent of vulnerability among provinces suggest that policymakers should develop region-specific policies and address climate change at the local level.

Biofuels, poverty, and growth: A computable general equilibrium analysis of Mozambique

Abstract: This paper assesses the implications of large-scale investments in biofuels for growth and income distribution. We find that biofuels investment enhances growth and poverty reduction despite some displacement of food crops by biofuels. Overall, the biofuel investment trajectory analyzed increases Mozambique's annual economic growth by 0.6 percentage points and reduces the incidence of poverty by about 6 percentage points over a 12-year phase-in period. Benefits depend on production technology. An outgrower approach to producing biofuels is more pro-poor, due to the greater use of unskilled labor and accrual of land rents to smallholders, compared with the more capital-intensive plantation approach. Moreover, the benefits of outgrower schemes are enhanced if they result in technology spillovers to other crops. These results should not be taken as a green light for unrestrained biofuels development. Rather, they indicate that a carefully designed and managed biofuels policy holds the potential for substantial gains.

The Impacts of Biofuel Targets on Land-Use Change and Food Supply: A Global CGE Assessment

Abstract: This study analyzes the long-term impacts of large-scale expansion of biofuels on land-use change, food supply and prices, and the overall economy in various countries or regions using a global computable general equilibrium model, augmented by a land-use module and detailed representation of biofuel sectors. The study finds that an expansion of global biofuel production to meet currently articulated or even higher national targets in various countries for biofuel use would reduce gross domestic product at the global level; however, the gross domestic product impacts are mixed across countries or regions. The expansion of biofuels would cause significant land re-allocation with notable decreases in forest and pasture lands in a few countries. The results also suggest that the expansion of biofuels would cause a reduction in food supply. Although the magnitude of the impact on food supply at the global level is not as large as perceived earlier, it would be significant in developing countries like India and those in Sub-Saharan Africa. Agricultural commodities such as sugar, corn, and oil seeds, which serve as the main biofuel feedstocks, would experience significant increases in their prices in 2020 compared with the prices at baseline due to the expansion of biofuels to meet the existing targets.

The Future of Food: Scenarios for 2050

Abstract: This background article addresses key challenges of adequately feeding a population of 9 billion by 2050, while preserving the agro-ecosystems from which other services are also expected. One of the scenario-buildings uses the Agrimonde platform, which considers the following steps: choosing the scenarios and their underlying building principles, developing quantitative scenarios, and building complete scenarios by combining quantitative scenarios with qualitative hypotheses. These scenarios consider how food issues link to production, for example, the percentage of animal vs. vegetal calorie intake in the full diet. The first section of this article discusses Agrimonde GO and Agrimonde 1 scenarios, which indicate that global economic growth and ecological intensification remain as main challenges for feeding the earth's growing population toward the mid-21st century. The second section provides the outcomes of the analysis of alternative futures for agricultural supply and demand and food security to 2050, based on research done for the International Assessment of Agricultural Science and Technology for Development. The last section of this article provides a summary analysis of food systems and functions, as well as the role of food technology that address some of the global challenges affecting the supply of more nutritious and healthy diets. It also highlights the food production by novel means (e.g., alternatives for animal products based on plant materials) and increasing the presence of potentially health-promoting compounds in food to improve human and animal health. Finally, this article proposes priority areas that should be included in further agri-food research.

Moving Forward, Looking Back: the Impact of Migration and Remittances on Assets, Consumption, and Credit Constraints in the Rural Philippines

Abstract: This paper investigates the impact of migration and remittances on asset holdings, consumption expenditures, and credit constraint status of households in origin communities, using a unique longitudinal data set from Bukidnon, Philippines. Taking into account the endogeneity of the number of migrants and remittances received, a larger number of migrant children reduces the values of nonland assets and total expenditures per adult equivalent. However, remittances have a positive impact on housing, consumer durables, nonland assets, total expenditures (per adult equivalent), and educational expenditures, enabling asset accumulation and investment in human capital. Neither migration nor remittances affects current credit constraint status.

Recent Findings on Trade and Inequality

Abstract: The 1990's dealt a blow to traditional Heckscher-Ohlin analysis of the relationship between trade and income inequality, as it became clear that rising inequality in low- income countries and other features of the data were inconsistent with that model. As a result, economists moved away from trade as a plausible explanation for rising income inequality. In recent years, however, a number of new mechanisms have been explored through which trade can affect (and usually increase) income inequality. These include within-industry effects due to heterogeneous firms; effects of offshoring of tasks; effects on incomplete contracting; and effects of labor-market frictions. A number of these mechanisms have received substantial empirical support.

Economic consequences of optimized water management for a prolonged, severe drought in California

Abstract: If abrupt climate change has occurred in the past and may be more likely under human forcing, it is relevant to look at the adaptability of current infrastructure systems to severe conditions of the recent past. Geologic evidence suggests two extreme droughts in California during the last few thousand years, each 120-200 years long, with mean annual streamflows 40%-60% of the historical mean. This study synthesized a 72 year drought with half of mean historical inflows using random sampling of historical dry years. One synthetic hydrological record is used, and sensitivity to different interpretations of the paleorecord is not evaluated. Economic effects and potential adaptation of California's water supply system in 2020 to this drought is explored using a hydroeconomic optimization model. The model considers how California could respond to such an extreme drought using water trading and provides best-case estimates of economic costs and effects on water operations and demands. Results illustrate the ability of extensive, intertied, and flexible water systems with heterogeneous water demands to respond to severe stress. The study follows a different approach to climate change impact studies, focusing on past climate changes from the paleorecord rather than downscaled general circulation model results to provide plausible hydrologic scenarios. Adaptations suggested for the sustained drought are similar for dry forms of climate warming in California and are expensive but not catastrophic for the overall economy but would impose severe burdens on the agricultural sector and environmental water uses.

On functional form representation of multi-output production technologies

Abstract: The introduction of directional distance functions has given researchers an alternative to Shephard distance functions. In this paper we conduct a Monte Carlo study to investigate the performance of distance functions as an approximation for models of technology. Our results indicate that quadratic representations of technology have better approximation properties than translog parameterizations.

Do Labor Statistics Depend on How and to Whom the Questions are Asked? Results from a Survey Experiment in Tanzania

Abstract: Labor market statistics are critical for assessing and understanding economic development. In practice, widespread variation exists in how labor statistics are measured in household surveys in low-income countries. Little is known whether these differences have an effect on the labor statistics they produce. This paper analyzes these effects by implementing a survey experiment in Tanzania that varied two key dimensions: the level of detail of the questions and the type of respondent. Significant differences are observed across survey designs with respect to different labor statistics. Labor force participation rates, for example, vary by as much as 10 percentage points across the four survey assignments. Using a short labor module without screening questions on employment generates lower female labor force participation and lower rates of wage employment for both men and women. Response by proxy rather than self-report yields lower male labor force participation, lower female working hours, and lower employment in agriculture for men. The differences between proxy and self reporting seem to come from information imperfections within the household, especially with the distance in age between respondent and subject playing an important role, while gender and educational differences seem less important.

Seasonal Migration and Agricultural Production in Vietnam

Abstract: When markets are incomplete migration can have multiple effects on agricultural production. I use instrumental variables techniques to explore the effects of seasonal migration on agricultural production in rural Vietnam during the 1990s. Using network variables specific to Vietnam as instruments, I find that migrant households in north Vietnam appear to move out of rice production and into the production of other crops. Inputs used by migrant households decrease relative to similar non-migrant households. The evidence is consistent with a shift from labor intensive into land-intensive crops, rather than productivity changes or the use of additional capital in production.