Showing papers by "International Food Policy Research Institute published in 2014"

Climate change effects on agriculture: Economic responses to biophysical shocks

Abstract: Agricultural production is sensitive to weather and thus directly affected by climate change. Plausible estimates of these climate change impacts require combined use of climate, crop, and economic models. Results from previous studies vary substantially due to differences in models, scenarios, and data. This paper is part of a collective effort to systematically integrate these three types of models. We focus on the economic component of the assessment, investigating how nine global economic models of agriculture represent endogenous responses to seven standardized climate change scenarios produced by two climate and five crop models. These responses include adjustments in yields, area, consumption, and international trade. We apply biophysical shocks derived from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’s representative concentration pathway with end-of-century radiative forcing of 8.5 W/m2. The mean biophysical yield effect with no incremental CO2 fertilization is a 17% reduction globally by 2050 relative to a scenario with unchanging climate. Endogenous economic responses reduce yield loss to 11%, increase area of major crops by 11%, and reduce consumption by 3%. Agricultural production, cropland area, trade, and prices show the greatest degree of variability in response to climate change, and consumption the lowest. The sources of these differences include model structure and specification; in particular, model assumptions about ease of land use conversion, intensification, and trade. This study identifies where models disagree on the relative responses to climate shocks and highlights research activities needed to improve the representation of agricultural adaptation responses to climate change.

A Review of Empirical Evidence on Gender Differences in Nonland Agricultural Inputs, Technology, and Services in Developing Countries

Abstract: Empirical research on gender dimensions in agricultural inputs has focused on land. This chapter reviews existing microeconomic empirical literature from the past 10 years on gender differences in use, access, and adoption of nonland agricultural inputs in developing countries. The review focuses on three key areas: (1) technological resources, (2) natural resources, and (3) human resources. In general, there has been more empirical research on inorganic fertilizer, seed varieties, and extension services than on tools and mechanization and life-cycle effects, and most of the studies are from Sub-Saharan Africa. A consistent finding is that, across different types of inputs, men generally have higher input measures than women, and that this input gap is responsible for observed productivity differences between men and women; however, this finding is often sensitive to the use of models that control for other background factors, as well as the type of gender indicator implemented in the analysis. The final section presents future directions, opportunities, and recommendations for microeconomic gender analysis of nonland agricultural inputs.

Heat Stress Increases Long-term Human Migration in Rural Pakistan

Abstract: Human migration attributable to climate events has recently received significant attention from the academic and policy communities (1-2). Quantitative evidence on the relationship between individual, permanent migration and natural disasters is limited (3-9). A 21-year longitudinal survey conducted in rural Pakistan (1991-2012) provides a unique opportunity to understand the relationship between weather and long-term migration. We link individual-level information from this survey to satellite-derived measures of climate variability and control for potential confounders using a multivariate approach. We find that flooding-a climate shock associated with large relief efforts-has modest to insignificant impacts on migration. Heat stress, however-which has attracted relatively little relief-consistently increases the long-term migration of men, driven by a negative effect on farm and non-farm income. Addressing weather-related displacement will require policies that both enhance resilience to climate shocks and lower barriers to welfare-enhancing population movements.

Extreme Weather and Civil War: Does Drought Fuel Conflict in Somalia through Livestock Price Shocks?

Abstract: Climate change leads to more frequent and more intense droughts in Somalia. In a global context weather shocks have been found to perpetuate poverty and fuel civil conflict. By relating regional and temporal variations in violent conflict outbreaks and drought incidence and severity, we show that this causality is also valid for Somalia at the local level. We find that livestock price shocks drive drought-induced conflicts through reducing the opportunity costs of conflict participation. Our estimation results indicate that a temperature rise of around 3.2 degree Celcius—corresponding to the median IPCC scenario for Eastern Africa by the end of the century—would lower cattle prices by about 4 percent and, in turn, increase the number of violent conflict by about 58 percent. Hence climate change will further aggravate Somalia’s security challenges and calls for decisive action to strengthen both drought and conflict resilience, especially in pastoralist and agropastoralist livelihoods.

World Health Organization infant and young child feeding indicators and their associations with child anthropometry: a synthesis of recent findings

Abstract: As the World Health Organization (WHO) infant and young child feeding (IYCF) indicators are increasingly adopted, a comparison of country-specific analyses of the indicators' associations with child growth is needed to examine the consistency of these relationships across contexts and to assess the strengths and potential limitations of the indicators. This study aims to determine cross-country patterns of associations of each of these indicators with child stunting, wasting, height-for-age z-score (HAZ) and weight-for-height z-score (WHZ). Eight studies using recent Demographic and Health Surveys data from a total of nine countries in sub-Saharan Africa (nine), Asia (three) and the Caribbean (one) were identified. The WHO indicators showed mixed associations with child anthropometric indicators across countries. Breastfeeding indicators demonstrated negative associations with HAZ, while indicators of diet diversity and overall diet quality were positively associated with HAZ in Bangladesh, Ethiopia, India and Zambia (P < 0.05). These same complementary feeding indicators did not show consistent relationships with child stunting. Exclusive breastfeeding under 6 months of age was associated with greater WHZ in Bangladesh and Zambia (P < 0.05), although CF indicators did not show strong associations with WHZ or wasting. The lack of sensitivity and specificity of many of the IYCF indicators may contribute to the inconsistent associations observed. The WHO indicators are clearly valuable tools for broadly assessing the quality of child diets and for monitoring population trends in IYCF practices over time. However, additional measures of dietary quality and quantity may be necessary to understand how specific IYCF behaviours relate to child growth faltering.

Agriculture and nutrition in India: mapping evidence to pathways.

Abstract: In India, progress against undernutrition has been slow. Given its importance for income generation, improving diets, care practices, and maternal health, the agriculture sector is widely regarded as playing an important role in accelerating the reduction in undernutrition. This paper comprehensively maps existing evidence along agriculture-nutrition pathways in India and assesses both the quality and coverage of the existing literature. We present a conceptual framework delineating six key pathways between agriculture and nutrition. Three pathways pertain to the nutritional impacts of farm production, farm incomes, and food prices. The other three pertain to agriculture-gender linkages. After an extensive search, we found 78 research papers that provided evidence to populate these pathways. The literature suggests that Indian agriculture has a range of important influences on nutrition. Agriculture seems to influence diets even when controlling for income, and relative food prices could partly explain observed dietary changes in recent decades. The evidence on agriculture-gender linkages to nutrition is relatively weak. Sizeable knowledge gaps remain. The root causes of these gaps include an interdisciplinary disconnect between nutrition and economics/agriculture, a related problem of inadequate survey data, and limited policy-driven experimentation. Closing these gaps is essential to strengthening the agriculture sector's contribution to reducing undernutrition.

Climate-smart agriculture global research agenda: scientific basis for action

Abstract: Background: Climate-smart agriculture (CSA) addresses the challenge of meeting the growing demand for food, fibre and fuel, despite the changing climate and fewer opportunities for agricultural expansion on additional lands. CSA focuses on contributing to economic development, poverty reduction and food security; maintaining and enhancing the productivity and resilience of natural and agricultural ecosystem functions, thus building natural capital; and reducing trade-offs involved in meeting these goals. Current gaps in knowledge, work within CSA, and agendas for interdisciplinary research and science-based actions identified at the 2013 Global Science Conference on Climate-Smart Agriculture (Davis, CA, USA) are described here within three themes: (1) farm and food systems, (2) landscape and regional issues and (3) institutional and policy aspects. The first two themes comprise crop physiology and genetics, mitigation and adaptation for livestock and agriculture, barriers to adoption of CSA practices, climate risk management and energy and biofuels (theme 1); and modelling adaptation and uncertainty, achieving multifunctionality, food and fishery systems, forest biodiversity and ecosystem services, rural migration from climate change and metrics (theme 2). Theme 3 comprises designing research that bridges disciplines, integrating stakeholder input to directly link science, action and governance. Outcomes: In addition to interdisciplinary research among these themes, imperatives include developing (1) models that include adaptation and transformation at either the farm or landscape level; (2) capacity approaches to examine multifunctional solutions for agronomic, ecological and socioeconomic challenges; (3) scenarios that are validated by direct evidence and metrics to support behaviours that foster resilience and natural capital; (4) reductions in the risk that can present formidable barriers for farmers during adoption of new technology and practices; and (5) an understanding of how climate affects the rural labour force, land tenure and cultural integrity, and thus the stability of food production. Effective work in CSA will involve stakeholders, address governance issues, examine uncertainties, incorporate social benefits with technological change, and establish climate finance within a green development framework. Here, the socioecological approach is intended to reduce development controversies associated with CSA and to identify technologies, policies and approaches leading to sustainable food production and consumption patterns in a changing climate.

Challenges to scenario-guided adaptive action on food security under climate change

Abstract: This paper examines the development and use of scenarios as an approach to guide action in multi-level, multi-actor adaptation contexts such as food security under climate change. Three challenges are highlighted: (1) ensuring the appropriate scope for action; (2) moving beyond intervention-based decision guidance; and (3) developing long-term shared capacity for strategic planning. To overcome these challenges we have applied explorative scenarios and normative back-casting with stakeholders from different sectors at the regional level in East Africa. We then applied lessons about appropriate scope, enabling adaptation pathways, and developing strategic planning capacity to scenarios processes in multiple global regions. Scenarios were created to have a broad enough scope to be relevant to diverse actors, and then adapted by different actor groups to ensure their salience in specific decision contexts. The initial strategy for using the scenarios by bringing a range of actors together to explore new collaborative proposals had limitations as well as strengths versus the application of scenarios for specific actor groups and existing decision pathways. Scenarios development and use transitioned from an intervention-based process to an embedded process characterized by continuous engagement. Feasibility and long-term sustainability could be ensured by having decision makers own the process and focusing on developing strategic planning capacity within their home organizations.

Dietary mineral supplies in Africa

Abstract: Dietary micronutrient deficiencies (MNDs) are widespread, yet their prevalence can be difficult to assess. Here, we estimate MND risks due to inadequate intakes for seven minerals in Africa using food supply and composition data, and consider the potential of food-based and agricultural interventions. Food Balance Sheets (FBSs) for 46 countries were integrated with food composition data to estimate per capita supply of calcium (Ca), copper (Cu), iron (Fe), iodine (I), magnesium (Mg), selenium (Se) and zinc (Zn), and also phytate. Deficiency risks were quantified using an estimated average requirement (EAR) ‘cut-point’ approach. Deficiency risks are highest for Ca (54% of the population), followed by Zn (40%), Se (28%) and I (19%, after accounting for iodized salt consumption). The risk of Cu (1%) and Mg (<1%) deficiency are low. Deficiency risks are generally lower in the north and west of Africa. Multiple MND risks are high in many countries. The population-weighted mean phytate supply is 2770 mg capita−1 day−1. Deficiency risks for Fe are lower than expected (5%). However, ‘cut-point’ approaches for Fe are sensitive to assumptions regarding requirements; e.g. estimates of Fe deficiency risks are 43% under very low bioavailability scenarios consistent with high-phytate, low-animal protein diets. Fertilization and breeding strategies could greatly reduce certain MNDs. For example, meeting HarvestPlus breeding targets for Zn would reduce dietary Zn deficiency risk by 90% based on supply data. Dietary diversification or direct fortification is likely to be needed to address Ca deficiency risks.

The Future in Mind: Aspirations and Forward-Looking Behaviour in Rural Ethiopia

Abstract: Poor people often do not make investments, even when returns are high. One possible explanation is that they have low aspirations and form mental models of their future opportunities which ignore some options for investment. This paper reports on a field experiment to test this hypothesis in rural Ethiopia. Individuals were randomly invited to watch documentaries about people from similar communities who had succeeded in agriculture or business, without help from government or NGOs. A placebo group watched an Ethiopian entertainment programme and a control group were simply surveyed. In addition, the number of people invited was varied by village to assess the importance of peer effects in formation of aspirations. Six months after screening, aspirations had improved among treated individuals and did not change in the placebo or control groups. Treatment effects were larger for those with higher pre-treatment aspirations. We also find treatment effects on savings, use of credit, children’s school enrolment and spending on children’s schooling, suggesting that changes in aspirations can translate into changes in a range of forward-looking behaviours. There are also treatment effects on measures from psychology and sociology, including locus of control, which theory predicts should behave in similar ways to aspirations. Most effects are robust to corrections for multiple testing. Peer effects result in further impact on educational spending and induce more work and less leisure. The result that a one-hour documentary shown six months earlier induces actual behavioural change suggests a challenging, promising avenue for further research and poverty-related interventions.

Linear Growth Deficit Continues to Accumulate beyond the First 1000 Days in Low- and Middle-Income Countries: Global Evidence from 51 National Surveys

Abstract: Growth faltering is usually assessed using height-for-age Z-scores (HAZs), which have been used for comparisons of children of different age and sex composition across populations. Because the SD (denominator) for calculating HAZ increases with age, the usefulness of HAZs to assess changes in height over time (across ages) is uncertain. We posited that population-level changes in height as populations age should be assessed using absolute height-for-age differences (HADs) and not HAZs. We used data from 51 nationwide surveys from low- and middle-income countries and graphed mean HAZs and HADs by age. We also calculated annual changes in HAZs and HADs and percentage of total height deficit accumulated annually from birth to age 60 mo using both approaches. Mean HAZ started at -0.4 Z-scores and dropped dramatically up to 24 mo, after which it stabilized and had no additional deterioration. Mean HAD started at -0.8 cm, with the most pronounced faltering occurring between 6 and 18 mo, similar to HAZ. However, in sharp contrast to HAZ, HAD curves had continued increases in the deficit of linear growth from 18 to 60 mo, with no indication of a leveling off. Globally, 70% of the absolute deficit accumulated in height (HAD) at 60 mo was found to be due to faltering during the first "1000 days" (conception to 24 mo), but 30% was due to continued increases in deficit from age 2 to 5 y. The use of HAZ masks these changes because of age-related changes in SD. Therefore, HAD, rather than HAZ, should be used to describe and compare changes in height as children age because detecting any deficit compared with expected changes in height as children grow is important and only HAD does this accurately at all ages. Our findings support the current global programmatic momentum to focus on the first 1000 d. Research is needed to better understand the dynamics and timing of linear growth faltering using indices and indicators that accurately reflect changes over ages and to identify cost-effective ways to prevent growth faltering and its consequences throughout the lifecycle.

The future of global water stress: An integrated assessment

Abstract: We assess the ability of global water systems, resolved at 282 large river basins or Assessment Sub Regions (ASRs), to the meet water requirements over the coming decades under integrated projections of socioeconomic growth and climate change. We employ a Water Resource System (WRS) component embedded within the MIT Integrated Global System Model (IGSM) framework in a suite of simulations that consider a range of climate policies and regional hydroclimatic changes through the middle of this century. We find that for many developing nations water-demand increases due to population growth and economic activity have a much stronger effect on water stress than climate change. By 2050, economic growth and population change alone can lead to an additional 1.8 billion people living in regions with at least moderate water stress. Of this additional 1.8 billion people, 80% are found in developing countries. Uncertain regional climate change can play a secondary role to either exacerbate or dampen the increase in water stress due to socioeconomic growth. The strongest climate impacts on relative changes in water stress are seen over many areas in Africa, but strong impacts also occur over Europe, Southeast Asia and North America. The combined effects of socioeconomic growth and uncertain climate change lead to a 1.0 to 1.3 billion increase of the world's 2050 projected population living in regions with overly exploited water conditions— where total potential water requirements will consistently exceed surface-water supply. Under the context of the WRS model framework, this would imply that adaptive measures would be taken to meet these surface-water shortfalls and would include: water-use efficiency, reduced and/or redirected consumption, recurrent periods of water emergencies or curtailments, groundwater depletion, additional inter-basin transfers, and overdraw from flow intended to maintain environmental requirements.

Gender in Agriculture Closing the Knowledge Gap

Abstract: PART I: Closing the Knowledge Gap on Gender in Agriculture 1. Closing the Knowledge Gap on Gender in Agriculture PART II: Data and Methods for Gender Analysis in Agriculture 2. Understanding Gender and Culture in Agriculture: The Role of Qualitative and Quantitative Approaches 3. Data Needs for Gender Analysis in Agriculture 4. If Women Hold Up Half the Sky, How Much of the World's Food Do They Produce? PART III: Gender, Assets, and Inputs: Issues at the Farm and Household Levels 5. The Gender Asset Gap and Its Implications for Agricultural and Rural Development 6. Gender Equity and Land: Toward Secure and Effective Access for Rural Women 7. A Review of Empirical Evidence on Gender Differences in Nonland Agricultural Inputs, Technology, and Services in Developing Countries 8. Rural Women's Access to Financial Services: Credit, Savings, and Insurance 9. Livestock and Women's Livelihoods: A Review of the Recent Evidence 10. Gender and Social Capital for Agricultural Development 11. Gender Implications of Poor Nutrition and Health in Agricultural Households PART IV: Gender and Markets: Moving beyond the Farm 12. Promoting Gender-Equitable Agricultural Value Chains: Issues, Opportunities, and Next Steps 13. Mainstreaming Gender Sensitivity in Cash Crop Market Supply Chains 14. Gender Inequalities in Rural Labor Markets PART V: Toward a Gender-Sensitive Agricultural Research, Development, and Extension System 15. A System That Delivers: Integrating Gender into Agricultural Research, Development, and Extension 16. Enhancing Female Participation in Agricultural Research and Development: Rationale and Evidence 17. Improving Gender Responsiveness of Agricultural Extension Index

Impact of agricultural cooperatives on smallholders’ technical efficiency: empirical evidence from ethiopia

Abstract: Using household survey data from Ethiopia, this paper evaluates the impact of agricultural cooperatives on smallholders' technical efficiency. We used propensity score matching to compare the average difference in technical efficiency between cooperative member farmers and similar independent farmers. The results show that agricultural cooperatives are effective in providing support services that significantly contribute to members' technical efficiency. These results are found to be insensitive to hidden bias and consistent with the idea that agricultural cooperatives enhance members' efficiency by easing access to productive inputs and facilitating ex- tension linkages. According to the findings, increased participation in agricultural cooperatives should further enhance efficiency gains among smallholder farmers.

The Power of Information: The ICT Revolution in Agricultural Development

Abstract: We review the state of information and communication technologies (ICTs) and their impact on agricultural development in developing countries, documenting the rapid changes that have taken place over the past decade. Although there remains a wide gap in access between rural and urban areas, the spread of mobile phones in rural areas has led to important changes in the agricultural sector. We find that access to mobile phones has generally improved agricultural market performance at the macro level; however, impacts at the micro level are mixed. Evidence regarding the impact of market information systems (MIS) delivered through mobile phones on farm prices and income is limited, but the evidence points to strong, heterogeneous impacts. Similarly, the rollout of extension programs though ICTs is still in an early stage, and little research is available regarding such programs’ impacts.