Showing papers by "International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis published in 1974"

Waiting for the breeder

Abstract: This paper is addressed to the selection of an optimal mix of electricity generating plants. The focus is on the problem of uncertainty with respect to the date of availability of breeder nuclear reactors. Sequential probabilistic linear programming is employed. This makes it possible to optimize the mix of fossil, nuclear, and peaking plants to be installed during the 1980's -- assuming that breeder technology will become available at some randomly determined later date. The model allows for the effects of exhausting our reserves of uranium ore. The exhaustion of these resources does not lead to disaster in the 21st century for an economy or a world with a backstop technology such as coal-fired electricity plants. There seems to be a low value of information on the breeder availability date, for the initial policy is rather insensitive to this date. This conclusion holds not only when future demands are taken as fixed parameters, but also when they are dependent upon the price of electricity. On environmental grounds (climate changes radioactivity hazards, air and water pollution), there may be good reasons to slow the rate of growth of electricity demand. These are quite different issues than exhausting the resources of low-cost uranium ore. If our numerical assumptions are correct, it is not optimal to slow down the electricity growth rate up to 1990 just because of possible delays in the arrival of the breeder and hence a rapid rise in the price of uranium. For the year 2000, the decision on demands can be deferred until the time arrives to make capital investment decisions for the decade following 1990. By that point, some of the breeder's uncertainties will have been resolved.

Proof for a Case where Discounting Advances the Doomsday

Abstract: In a previous paper (Koopmans [1]) I considered some problems of " optimal " consumption P, over time of an exhaustible resource of known finite total availability R. In one of the cases studied, consumption of a minimum amount of the resource is assumed to be essential to human life, in such a way that all life ceases upon its exhaustion at time T. Assuming a constant population until that time, and denoting by r the positive minimum consumption level needed for survival of that population, the survival period Tis constrained by

Evaluating time streams of income

Abstract: When a decision maker considers possible returns from a business project or investment, he often faces the problem that these returns are not all received at the same time, and thus he must make some adjustments to take account of his time preference for money. After a review of discounting, a utility theory approach is made by developing a two-attribute utility function u(x, t) which represents the desirability of an income of x at a time t in the future. Assumptions to simplify the assessment of this function are considered. Then u(x, t) is used to form a criterion for evaluating infinite time streams of income.

Energy choices that europe faces: a European view of energy.

Abstract: In conclusion, I feel that the energy challenge, tough as it is, does not pose unsurmountable technological problems, even in Europe. At least in principle, the necessary technology is already there. This article is meant to make that statement plausible. It is not the intention to insist on certain ideas. It is important, however, to have a consistent approach, and this means to obey the timing of the problem. Therefore the most important aspect during the transition phase probably is the buildup of a modern secondary energy system. In the long run it will ibe energy embedding and not the production of energy which will be the principal driving force for the development, because in principle at least there is more than one option to provide almost unlimited amounts of energy. In order to meet the demand for an appropriate embedding of energy, the concept of primary energy parks in the open sea seems to be most promising.

Management and Standards for Perturbed Ecosystems

Abstract: This paper introduces some new constructs for measuring the effectiveness of environmental standards and for formalizing the economic and social costs of meeting them. It emphasizes the element of recovery time (and of its manipulation) in ecosystem management, and thereby lays the mathematical foundation for further study of an Environmental Zoo (a physical entity in which living organisms are stocked to replenish depleted numbers in the field) and for evaluation of long-term exposure to low-level pollutants. The biological models presented here are taken directly from Holling, whose work distinguishes importantly between the properties of stability and resilience , and who is continuing even now to apply these concepts to management of the spruce budworm in the province of New Brunswick. In place of conclusions, this paper identifies a few potentially fruitful programs for further work.