Showing papers by "International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis published in 1993"

Thirty years of demography and Demography

Abstract: This article was written at the behest of "Demographys" editors on the 30th anniversary of the publication An overview is provided of how the field of demography has changed within graduate study within the membership of the Population Association of America and within the literature published by "Demography" Publication began as an annual volume and expanded to a quarterly one Several issues are fundamental yet controversial; for example the issue of the purpose of methodology for its own sake or as exclusion of relevant information and the issue of separation between demography and population study Demographys philosophy is captured in the writings of William Ogburn that knowledge is a gradual building and expansion of research based on the solid material of statistics However Ogburn did not recognize that successive generations rebuild the house of knowledge neglect the old structure and face new problems A review of the historical records of past issues showed that the empirical results were durable and positive to forthcoming generations Individual authors survive not alone but as the common knowledge of the profession and upon incorporation into others work Significance is achieved by drawing attention to new problems In the overview the following topics are discussed: founding problems and early achievement the coincidence of computer development and publication a record of research findings citations in other journals specialization among population journals isolation in disciplines the influence of journals on the discipline the annual population address segregation of articles and directions of research (mortality fertility the family international migration growth of cities and population and development) About 40 articles are published yearly with an acceptance rate of 15-20% including 20% "new" manuscripts The number of citations in other journals has been stable and increased from 690 in 1982 to 897 in 1990; an analysis by journal indicated that "Demography" was cited more than any other publication in the field and among different professions Citations referred back to articles published 10 years age and longer which is a measure of durability Distinguishing characteristics of the major journals in demography are indicated

Sufficient conditions for viability under imperfect measurement

Abstract: Viability theory gives a necessary and sufficient condition for the existence of a (set-valued) state feedback control such that all trajectories of the closed-loop system starting from the graph of a given tube in the state space remain in the tube. Here we investigate the same problem in the case where only incomplete and inexact measurement of the state is available. In the time-invariant case, we give a sufficient condition for the existence of anoutput feedback regulation map. The condition is shown to be equivalent to Haddad's viability condition if the measurement is perfect.

The role of multi-objective optimization in negotiation and mediation support

Abstract: The paper reviews the methodology of multi-objective modeling and optimization used in decision support based on computerized analytical models (as opposed to logical models used in expert systems) that represent expert knowledge in a given field. The essential aspects of this methodology relate to its flexibility: modeling and optimization methods are treated not as goals in themselves but as tools that help a sovereign user (an analyst or a decision maker) to interact with the model, to generate and analyze various decision options, to learn about possible outcomes of these decisions. Although the applications of such methods in negotiation and mediation support is scarce yet, their flexibility increases essentially the chances of such applications. Various aspects of negotiation and mediation methods related to multi-objective optimization and game theory are also reviewed. A possible application of the MCBARG system for supporting negotiation related to the acid rain problem is briefly summarized.

Decision analysis for practical negotiation application

Abstract: The family of decision analysis techniques can be applied effectively to support practical negotiators in international settings. These techniques are most appropriate in support of the prenegotiation phase, when parties are diagnosing the situation, assessing their own plans and strategies, and evaluating likely reactions and outcomes. The paper identifies how these approaches have and can be used to assist negotiation practitioners, offers a rationale for the application of decision analytic approaches in terms of the particular analytical requirements of the prenegotiation period, suggests how these process-oriented tools can be integrated with substantive tools, and discusses ways in which these tools can be presented and delivered to practitioners in a practical and confidence-building manner.

Expert Systems in Water Resources Simulation and Optimization

Abstract: Expert systems (ES) as a new and emerging technology of information processing and decision support are becoming increasingly useful tools in numerous application areas. Expert systems are man-machine systems that perform problem-solving tasks in a specific domain. They use rules, heuristics, and techniques such as first-order logic or semantic networks, to represent knowledge, together with inference mechanisms, in order to derive or deduce conclusions from stored and user-supplied information.

A compensation procedure for multiprogramming queues

Abstract: In this paper we study a multiprogramming system consisting of an input-output unit (IO unit) and a central processor (CP). This system can be represented by a continuous time Markov process with states (m, n), wherem andn denote the number of jobs at the CP and the IO unit respectively. The computation of the equilibrium distribution {p m,n } of this Markov process is the purpose of the analysis in this paper. The analysis consists of two parts. In the first part, we use a compensation procedure to show that the equilibrium distribution {p m,n } in those states (m, n) for whichm+n is not too small, can be expressed as an infinite linear combination of product forms. Explicit formulae are given for the product forms and the coefficients of this infinite linear combination. In the second part of the analysis, we pay attention to some numerical aspects of the computation of the equilibrium distribution.

1012: a Check on the earth-carrying capacity for man

Abstract: Much has been said about the carrying capacity of the earth and with most contradictory results, as the arguments have too often been used in the service of prejudicesIn this paper, we have: made a cross section of a world very heavily populated by present standards; examined with a system view the level of basic necessities plus luxuries for this population and indicated the technology to satisfy them Where problems of a global level appeared, a geoengineering solution has been sketched The result of this analysis is that, from a technological point of view, a trillion people can live beautifully on the earth, for an unlimited time and without exhausting any primary resource and without overloading the environment The global view of the problems and of their solutions makes the difference and shows that most of the perceived physical limits to growth stem from an inappropriate frame of referenceAlthough our result should by no means be interpreted as an invitation to multiply, it does cast some doub

A stochastic quasigradient algorithm with variable metric

Abstract: This paper deals with a new variable metric algorithm for stochastic optimization problems. The essence of this is as follows: there exist two stochastic quasigradient algorithms working simultaneously — the first in the main space, the second with respect to the matrices that modify the space variables. Almost sure convergence of the algorithm is proved for the case of the convex (possiblynonsmooth) objective function.

Population and sustainable development: Distinguishing fact and preference concerning the future human population and environment

Abstract: The relation of population, environment and economic growth is controversial, with some considering that growth comes at an intolerable expense to the environment, others that the damage to the environment is slight and in any case so far in the future that it does not matter. Scientific evidence on the subject is not the only basis on which people choose sides; major factors are preference for present enjoyment and welfare as against the welfare of children and grandchildren, and the life of cities as against the countryside. The visibility of damage to the environment will sooner or later convince everyone that something must be done. For we can picture a declining marginal enjoyment of goods, and a rising marginal visible damage, two curves that are sure to meet sooner or later, and when they do the public will insist on drastic measures for repair being financed and undertaken. The greater the delay the more expensive the repairs. Beyond cost, the question is whether adequate measures of repair and prevention of further damage will be undertaken before it is too late.

Are there ecological limits to population

Abstract: Policy on population and environment in the United States and abroad has been vacillating, unsure of its course; it would be more decisive if the several disciplines could agree on the nature of the problems and their urgency. The two disciplines principally concerned are biology and economics, and the contribution of this paper is to identify eight of the many axes or directions on which the methods and traditions of the two are different. For example, the first of the axes runs between contingency and orderly progress, with biology tending to seek out the former and economics the latter; thus biologists can more easily comprehend catastrophes, such as the demise of the dinosaurs or widespread desertification. The third axis concerns indefinite market-driven substitutability, seen by economists as resulting from scientific discovery; natural scientists, including biologists, whose discoveries make possible the substitutions, are skeptical. Axis 7 results from the fact that economics concentrates on goods that are on the market, and so deals with a truncated part of the commodity cycle, while ecology aims at the whole; because goods disappear from economic statistics once they pass into the hands of consumers many of their ecological effects are invisible. I believe that from similar further study of the two disciplines a common set of policy recommendations will ultimately emerge.

Sources of heavy metal pollution in the rhine basin

Abstract: The concept of industrial metabolism is introduced as an analytical framework for many diffuse sources of pollution for which ‘end of pipe’ control will not work and pollution prevention at the source is required. the concept is applied to pollution in the Rhine Basin which ends up in the Netherlands Delta and the North Sea, where the character of the pollutants changes over time. Cadmium, lead and zinc pollution from point sources, traffic, corrosion and atmospheric deposition are considered. Calculations cover the period from 1950 to 2010. in this study strongly urbanized paved and unpaved areas are distinguished based on their transport of pollutants to surface waters.

Hybrid: Multicriteria Linear Programming System for Computers under DOS and Unix

Abstract: Hybrid is a mathematical programming package which includes all the functions necessary for the solution of single and multicriteria LP problems. Hybrid uses a non-simplex method which combines the proximal multiplier method and an active set algorithm and has been prepared in two versions: one for UNIX (currently implemented for Sun Sparc running under SunOS 4.1) and one for a PC compatible with the IBM PC.

Export Processing in Saint Lucia: Ownership, Linkages and Transfer of Technology

Abstract: The author reports the results of May 1993 field work in St Lucia's export processing plants, which supplied more than half the jobs in manuafacturing and 6% of all jobs in the economy that year.

Population: the dynamics of change.

Abstract: Global population growth is generally considered to be one of the major driving forces of global change. Population changes, however, follow their own dynamics and can be influenced only marginally in the short run. This paper outlines the basic structure of these dynamics, including the important momentum of population growth. It also presents alternative population projections that show that in the long run much depends on fertility trends in the near future, and that a successful curbing of population growth will result in very rapid and significant population aging.

Export Processing in the Dominican Republic: Ownership, Linkages and Transfer of Technology

Abstract: The author reports the results of February 1993 field work examining Export Processing zones in the Dominican Republic, which provided 63% of the jobs in manufacturing and 6.6% of all jobs in the economy.

Interactive Multicriteria Decision Support: Combining Rule-based and Numerical Approaches

Abstract: The main objective of the project is to develop and test, in a practical case study, new methods for multicriteria decision support that seek to combine approaches and methods from both traditional OR and new and emerging methods of AI and expert systems in particular. As a consequence of this experimental approach, the actual computer implementation of the concepts developed is a necessary condition for their practical testing in the field.

Export Processing in Jamaica: Ownership, Linkages and Transfer of Technology

Abstract: The author reports the results of June 1993 field work examining Jamaica's 109 export processing plants, which provided 30% of jobs in manuafacturing and 3% of all jobs in the economy.

The integral river basin approach to assess the impact of multiple contamination sources exemplified by the River Rhine

Abstract: The basic premise of this paper is that solutions to problems of chemical pollution cannot be achieved unless an integrated assessment exists that connects flows of toxic materials through the industrial economy with their flows to the environment. As shown in Figure 1, flows through the industrial economy include all of the anthropogenic movements of materials through society. These include extraction of raw materials, processing them into consumer products, transporting the products to consumers who use and dispose of them, or in some cases recycle them. Ultimately, though, most of the materials that fuel and nourish industrial societies are returned in a degraded form to the land, the atmosphere, or to aqueous systems. The schematic diagram depicted in Figure 1 greatly simplifies the cycling of most materials in the industrial economy. Indeed, it is important to note that the anthropogenic cycling of chemicals can be just as complex as the cycling through the environment.

Decision systems: the relation between problem specification and mathematical analysis

Abstract: In this paper it is demonstrated that automated support for decision making of a tactical or strategic nature requires a solver-independent medium for describing decision situations. Such a medium may be specific for one environment, but it is also possible to develop media for certain types of environments. By using such a medium one obtains a decoupling of problem formulation and method of analysis. This makes it possible to use (parts of) the problem formulation as input for different types of models. Such problem formulations may provide mathematical models themselves, although they might also contain some less formal features.