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Showing papers by "International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis published in 2001"


Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: In this article, the authors assemble data on experience accumulation and cost reductions for a number of energy technologies, estimate learning rates for the resulting 26 data sets, analyze their variability, and evaluate their usefulness for applications in long-term energy models.

854 citations


Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: The results reveal a picture of biomass carbon gains in Eurasian boreal and North American temperate forests and losses in some Canadian boreal forests and contributes to a monitoring program of forest biomass sinks under the Kyoto protocol.
Abstract: The terrestrial carbon sink, as of yet unidentified, represents 15–30% of annual global emissions of carbon from fossil fuels and industrial activities. Some of the missing carbon is sequestered in vegetation biomass and, under the Kyoto Protocol of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change, industrialized nations can use certain forest biomass sinks to meet their greenhouse gas emissions reduction commitments. Therefore, we analyzed 19 years of data from remote-sensing spacecraft and forest inventories to identify the size and location of such sinks. The results, which cover the years 1981–1999, reveal a picture of biomass carbon gains in Eurasian boreal and North American temperate forests and losses in some Canadian boreal forests. For the 1.42 billion hectares of Northern forests, roughly above the 30th parallel, we estimate the biomass sink to be 0.68 ± 0.34 billion tons carbon per year, of which nearly 70% is in Eurasia, in proportion to its forest area and in disproportion to its biomass carbon pool. The relatively high spatial resolution of these estimates permits direct validation with ground data and contributes to a monitoring program of forest biomass sinks under the Kyoto protocol.

655 citations


Journal ArticleDOI
02 Aug 2001-Nature
TL;DR: There is around an 85 per cent chance that the world's population will stop growing before the end of the century, and for different regions, the date and size of the peak population will vary considerably.
Abstract: There has been enormous concern about the consequences of human population growth for the environment and for social and economic development. But this growth is likely to come to an end in the foreseeable future. Improving on earlier methods of probabilistic forecasting, here we show that there is around an 85 per cent chance that the world's population will stop growing before the end of the century. There is a 60 per cent probability that the world's population will not exceed 10 billion people before 2100, and around a 15 per cent probability that the world's population at the end of the century will be lower than it is today. For different regions, the date and size of the peak population will vary considerably....

654 citations


Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: In this article, the authors presented estimates of world regional potentials of the sustainable use of biomass for energy uses through the year 2050, consistent with scenarios of agricultural production and land use developed at the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Austria.
Abstract: Estimates of world regional potentials of the sustainable use of biomass for energy uses through the year 2050 are presented. The estimated potentials are consistent with scenarios of agricultural production and land use developed at the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Austria. They thus avoid inconsistent land use, in particular conflicts between the agricultural and bioenergy land use. As an illustration of the circumstances under which a large part of this potential could be used in practice, a global energy scenario with high economic growth and low greenhouse gas emissions, developed by IIASA and the World Energy Council is summarised. In that scenario, bioenergy supplies 15% of global primary energy by 2050. Our estimation method is transparent and reproducible. A computer program to repeat the calculation of the estimates with possibly changed assumptions is available on request.

351 citations


Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: The evolutionarily stable conditional dispersal strategy for individuals that can account for the local population density in their dispersal decisions is calculated and is calculated as the mean number of dispersers produced through lines of descent consisting of only non–dispersers.
Abstract: We define a fitness concept applicable to structured metapopulations consisting of infinitely many equally coupled patches. In addition, we introduce a more easily calculated quantity Rm that relates to fitness in the same manner as R0 relates to fitness in ordinary population dynamics: the Rm of a mutant is only defined when the resident population dynamics converges to a point equilibrium and Rm is larger (smaller) than 1 if and only if mutant fitness is positive (negative). Rm corresponds to the average number of newborn dispersers resulting from the (on average less than one) local colony founded by a newborn disperser. Efficient algorithms for calculating its numerical value are provided. As an example of the usefulness of these concepts we calculate the evolutionarily stable conditional dispersal strategy for individuals that can account for the local population density in their dispersal decisions. Below a threshold density x, at which staying and leaving are equality profitable, everybody should stay and above x everybody should leave, where profitability is measured as the mean number of dispersers produced through lines of descent consisting of non-dispersers.

217 citations


Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: In this article, an enhanced agro-ecological zones (AEZ) assessment model provides a spatially explicit measure of production potentials for agricultural land uses, and land-use change scenarios are assessed with an extended input-output model of China's economy.

178 citations


Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: In this article, the authors assess how widely perceived changes in the economy and society of China will affect future land use at the regional level and show the consequences of these changes on future inter-regional and international trade flows of land-based products.

150 citations


Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: This study test the plausibility of the hypotheses that the phylotypic stage is conserved due to the intense and global interactivity occurring during that stage and presents an argument on why the absence of modularity in the inductive interactions may also be the root cause of the conservation of the much discussed temporal and spatial colinearity of the Hox genes.
Abstract: The phylotypic stage is the developmental stage at which vertebrates most resemble each other. In this study we test the plausibility of the hypotheses of Sander (1983) and Raff (1994) that the phylotypic stage is conserved due to the intense and global interactivity occurring during that stage. First, we test the prediction that the phylotypic stage is much more vulnerable than any other stage. A search of the teratological literature shows that disturbances at this stage lead to much higher mortality than in other stages, in accordance with the prediction. Second, we test whether that vulnerability is indeed caused by the interactiveness and lack of modularity of the inductions or, alternatively, is caused by some particularly vulnerable process going on at that time. From the pattern of multiple induced anomalies we conclude that it is indeed the interactiveness that is the root cause of vulnerability. Together these results support the hypotheses of Sander and Raff. We end by presenting an argument on why the absence of modularity in the inductive interactions may also be the root cause of the conservation of the much discussed temporal and spatial colinearity of the "Hox" genes.

142 citations


Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: In this article, the temporal development of the emissions of the four air pollutants is projected to the year 2030 based on scenarios of economic development, and the projections are prepared at a regional level and distinguish more than 100 source categories for each region.
Abstract: Starting from an inventory of SO2, NOx, VOC and NH3 emissions for the years 1990 and 1995 in East Asia (Japan, South and North Korea, China, Mongolia and Taiwan), the temporal development of the emissions of the four air pollutants is projected to the year 2030 based on scenarios of economic development. The projections are prepared at a regional level (prefectures or provinces of individual countries) and distinguish more than 100 source categories for each region. The emission estimates are presented with a spatial resolution of 1×1 degree longitude/latitude. First results suggest that, due to the emission control legislation taken in the region, SO2 emissions would only grow by about 46 percent until 2030. Emissions of NOx and VOC may increase by 95 and 65 percent, respectively, mainly driven by the expected increase in road traffic volume. Ammonia, mainly emitted from agriculture, is projected to double by 2030.

133 citations


Journal ArticleDOI
05 Jul 2001-Nature
TL;DR: The authors need to research all the potential outcomes, not try to guess which is likeliest to occur, as in the case of climate change.
Abstract: We need to research all the potential outcomes, not try to guess which is likeliest to occur

131 citations


Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: In this article, the authors discuss landscape level management options for the northwest Wisconsin Pine Barrens based on both landscape ecology and the human demographics of the region using the 1990 U.S. Decennial Census.
Abstract: The effects of landscape pattern on forest ecosystems have been a recent focus in forest science. Forest managers are increasingly considering landscape level processes in their management. Natural disturbance patterns provide one baseline for such management. What has been largely ignored is the pattern of human habitation patterns (i.e., housing), on landscapes. The objective of this study is to discuss landscape level management options for the northwest Wisconsin Pine Barrens based on both landscape ecology and the human demographics of the region. Using the 1990 U.S. Decennial Census we examined current housing density, seasonal housing unit concentration, historic housing density change and projected future housing densities. These data were related to land cover and land ownership data using a GIS. Housing density increase was particularly pronounced in the central Pine Barrens, an area where seasonal housing units are common. Lakes and streams were more abundant in areas that exhibited highest growth. Within national forest lands, 80% of the area contained no housing units. In contrast, only 12% of the area in small private land ownership contained no housing. These results are integrated with previous studies of presettlement vegetation and landscape change to discuss landscape level management suggestions for the Pine Barrens.

Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: In this paper, the authors presented the first global population projections by educational attainment using methods of multi-state population projection and estimated the educational composition of the population by age and sex and educational fertility differentials.
Abstract: This research note presents the first global population projections by educational attainment using methods of multi-state population projection. The educational composition of the population by age and sex and educational fertility differentials are estimated for 13 world regions, and alternative scenarios are presented to the year 2030. One of these scenarios assumes constant educational transition rates and the other assumes that all regions reach Northern American levels of enrollment rates by 2030. The strong momentum or, as the case may be, inertia in the transformation of the educational composition of a population, seen in the results, arises because education is mostly acquired at a young age. The sex bias in the educational composition, especially evident in some developing countries, is unlikely to disappear soon. China has made remarkable progress in improving educational enrollment and as a consequence by 2030 is expected to have more educated people of working age than Europe and Northern America together.

Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: In this article, the authors developed an algorithm to compute comprehensive differentiation rules suitable for measuring human development and evaluated the results by empirically re-estimating the human development index (HDI).
Abstract: The measurement of human development has a potentially strong impact on how the development gap is viewed and on the formulation of new policies. Therefore correct and fair measurement is of great importance. In this paper, we develop an algorithm to compute comprehensive differentiation rules suitable for measuring human development. We used models from Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA) literature to compare performance in a multiple output setting. The models were evaluated by empirically re-estimating the human development index (HDI). The most notable advantages of DEA models are that they endogenously construct a non-linearly arranged set of best practice countries and the weights of each indicator entering the HDI is endogenously determined based on an optimization calculus. These weights are allowed to vary thereby accounting for cross-sectional heterogeneity. While country clusters are identified by their similarity, some interesting outliers can also be singled out using DEA. Such outliers are either best practice frontier countries or countries that are locked in underdevelopment trap.

Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: In this paper, the authors compared three scenarios of energy demand in the European Union until 2010 and analyzed their effects on carbon emissions as well as their impacts on the precursor emissions for acidification and ground-level ozone.

Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: In this paper, the development of energy intensity over time and its relationship with the sectoral economic development was studied. And the authors found that capital formation has the effect of increasing energy intensity and this effect is stronger where sectoral output is larger.

Journal ArticleDOI
22 Nov 2001-Nature
TL;DR: Two new computer simulations provide a plausible answer to the question of how humans have a tendency to cooperate and help each other.
Abstract: Humans, and many other species, have a tendency to cooperate and help each other. But how does such behaviour evolve? Some new computer simulations provide a plausible answer.

Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: The kinetics of two cancer cell lines: IGROV1 and MOLT4 are characterized, which have a shorter mean cell cycle time, but higher intercell variability than the leukemia line, which takes longer to lose synchrony.

Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: In this paper, the authors present an analysis of the effects of measures to reduce NH3 emissions on emissions of N2O and CH4 from agriculture in Europe, which is an important source of NH3, which contributes to acidification and eutrophication.

Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: In this article, the European Commission Research Directorate General, Environment and Sustainable Development Programme, Unit I-3, B-1049 Bruxelles, Belgium has proposed an approach for water management for sustainable development.
Abstract: 1 Macaulay Institute, Aberdeen, Scotland AB15 8QH, UK 2 Centre for Ecology and Hydrology, Wallingford, Oxon OX10 8BB, UK 3 Norwegian Institute for Water Research, PO Box 173, Kjelsås, N-0411Oslo, Norway 4 International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, A-2361 Laxenburg, Austria 5 European Commission Research Directorate General, Environment and Sustainable Development Programme, Unit I-3, B-1049 Bruxelles, Belgium

Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: A test for Nijhout's hypothesis that the eyespot patterns on butterfly wings are the result of a threshold reaction of the epidermal cells to a concentration gradient of a diffusing degradable morphogen produced by focal cells at the centre of the future eyespot is described.
Abstract: In this paper we describe a test for Nijhout's (1978, 1980a) hypothesis that the eyespot patterns on butterfly wings are the result of a threshold reaction of the epidermal cells to a concentration gradient of a diffusing degradable morphogen produced by focal cells at the center of the future eyespot. The wings of the nymphalid butterfly, "Bacilus anynana," have a series of eyespots, each composed of a white pupil, a black disc and a gold outer ring. In earlier extirpation and transplantation experiments (Nijhout 1980a, French and Brakefield, 1995) it has been established that these eyespots are indeed organized around groups of signaling cells active during the first hours of pupal development. If these cells were to supply the positional information for eyespot formation in accordance with Nijhouts diffusion-degradation gradient model, then, when two foci are close together, the signals should sum, and this effect should be apparent in the detailed shape of the resulting pigment pattern. We give an equation for the form of the contours that would be obtained in this manner. We use this to test the morphogen gradient hypothesis on measurements of the outlines of fused eyespots obtained either by grafting focal cells close together, or by using a mutation ("Spotty") that produces adjacent fused eyespots. The contours of the fused patterns were found to satisfy our equation, thus corroborating Nijhouts hypothesis to the extent possible with this particular type of experiment.

Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: In this paper, the authors presented estimates of NH3, N2O and CH4 emissions from European agriculture for 1990 and four scenarios for the year 2010, assuming no specific NH3 abatement, but emissions of all three gases decline between 1990 and 2010.

Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: The results suggest that urban NOx levels are a significant explanatory factor in differences between urban and nearby rural ozone concentrations and that the phenomenon could be satisfactorily represented with this kind of method.

Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: In this article, the authors estimate that during the Kyoto Protocol's 2008-2012 "budget period" the surplus will range from 9 MtC (milliontons of carbon) to 900 MtC for Russia and from 3 MtC to 200 mtC for Ukraine.
Abstract: The emission targets adopted in the Kyoto Protocol1 far exceed thelikely level of emissions from Russia and Ukraine. These countries could selltheir surplus if the Protocol is followedand industrialized countries establish an international emission tradingsystem. Critics have condemned the potentialsale and dubbed the surplus ‘hot air’ because it does not represent anyreduction in emissions below the level thatwould have occurred anyway. Using the most recent, comprehensive regionalscenarios2 for the emissions of carbon dioxide from the energysystem, we estimate that during the Protocol's2008–2012 ‘budget period’ the surplus will range from 9 MtC (milliontons of carbon) to 900 MtC for Russia andfrom 3 MtC to 200 MtC for Ukraine. Even scenarios with high economic growthand carbon-intensive technologies donot exhaust the surplus before the budget period. In the central (‘middlecourse’) scenario, the total carbon surplusexceeds 1000 MtC and is worth 22 to 170 billion U.S. dollars (4 to 34 billionU.S. dollars per year). This flow ofrevenues, which could exceed Russian earnings from natural gas exports($10 billion in 19973), is comparable with the projectedtotal investmentsof the Russian energy system for 2008–2012. If directed towardslow-carbon infrastructure investments (e.g., gaspipelines), surplus transfers could reinforce and partially lock-indecarbonization of the world energy system.

Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: The estimated net primary production (NPP) of Russian terrestrial ecosystems (annual average over the period from 1988 to 1992) is 9544 Tg of dry matter, or 4353Tg of carbon as mentioned in this paper.
Abstract: The estimated net primary production (NPP) of Russian terrestrial ecosystems (annual average over the period from 1988 to 1992) is 9544 Tg of dry matter, or 4353 Tg of carbon. Of the total amount, forests account for approximately 39.2% (here and below, comparisons are made with respect to carbon content); natural grasslands and brushwoods, for 27.6%; farmlands (arable land and cultivated pastures), for 22.0%; and wetlands, for 11.2%. The average NPP density on lands covered with vegetation (1629.8 million hectares in Russia) is 267 g C/m2per year. The highest value (498 g C/m2per year) is characteristic of arable lands. Other land-use/land-cover (LULC) classes have the following NPP densities (in areas covered with vegetation): grasslands and brushwoods, 278 g C/m2; forests, 224 g C/m2; and wetlands, 219 g C/m2per year. In general, Russian terrestrial ecosystems accumulate 59.7% of the total NPP in the aboveground phytomass (47.8% in green parts and 11.9% in wood) and 40.3% in the underground phytomass. The latter parameter differs significantly in different LULC classes and bioclimatic zones. According to calculations, the uncertainty in estimating the total NPP is 11% (a priori confidential probability 0.9).

Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: In this article, a nonlinear model of economic growth which involves production, technology stock, and their rates as the main variables is considered, and the Pontryagin optimality principle is applied for designing the optimal nonlinear dynamics.
Abstract: A nonlinear model of economic growth which involves production, technology stock, and their rates as the main variables is considered. Two trends (growth and decline) in the interaction between the production and R&D investment are examined in the balanced dynamics. The optimal control problem of R&D investment is studied for the balanced dynamics and the utility function with the discounted consumption. The Pontryagin optimality principle is applied for designing the optimal nonlinear dynamics. An existence and uniqueness result is proved for an equilibrium of the saddle type and the convergence property of the optimal trajectories is shown. Quasioptimal feedbacks of the rational type for balancing the dynamical system are proposed. The growth properties of the production rate, R&D, and technology intensities are examined on the generated trajectories.

Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: In this paper, an intercomparison exercise has been initiated as a collaborative study of scientists interested in long-range transport in East Asia, which consists of a set of prescribed test calculations with carefully controlled experiments.
Abstract: To help improve the use of models in science & policy analysis in Asia it is necessary to have a better understanding of model performance and uncertainties. Towards this goal an intercomparison exercise has been initiated as a collaborative study of scientists interested in long-range transport in East Asia. An overview of this study is presented in this paper. The study consists of a set of prescribed test calculations with carefully controlled experiments. Models used the same domain, emission inventory, model parameters, meteorological conditions, etc. Two periods (January and May 1993) were selected to reflect long-range transport conditions under two distinct seasons. During these periods measurements of sulfur concentrations and deposition were made throughout the study region using identical sampling and analysis protocols. The intercomparison activity consists of four tasks (Blind Test, Fixed Parameter Test, Source Receptor test, and Tuning Test). All participants were asked to do Task A, and as many of the other tasks as possible. To date seven different models have participated in this study. Results and key findings are presented.

Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: In this article, a market of emission reduction units (ERUs) for carbon dioxide abatement in regional energy systems and economies is modeled using a multi-regional MARKAL-MACRO model.
Abstract: A cost-efficient way to allocate carbon dioxide (CO2) emission reductions among countries or regions is to harmonise their marginal reduction costs. This could be achieved by a market of emission reduction units (ERUs). To model such a market, we use a multi-regional MARKAL-MACRO model. It gives insights into the consequences of co-ordinating CO2 abatement on regional energy systems and economies. As a numerical application, we assess the establishment of a market of ERUs among three European countries for curbing their CO2 emissions.

Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: In this article, a large body of resources is available to assist in estimating emissions at the global, regional and local scale and work is ongoing to refine methodologies and to address additional sources and pollutants such as fine particulate matter.
Abstract: Accurate emission inventories are crucial for informed decisions about emission control strategies. Emission inventory activities are now well established throughout the world and a large body of resources is available to assist in estimating emissions at the global, regional and local scale. Work is ongoing to refine methodologies and to address additional sources and pollutants such as fine particulate matter.

Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: In this article, an integrated assessment model for particulate matter developed at IIASA addresses the relative importance of the different types of particulates, distinguishing primary and secondary particles and two size fractions.
Abstract: Exposure to fine particles in the ambient air is recognized as a significant threat to human health. Two pathways contribute to the particle burden in the atmosphere: Fine particles originate from primary emissions, and secondary organic and inorganic particles are formed from the gas phase from the emissions of 'conventional' pollutants such as SO2, NOx, VOC and NH3. Both types of particulate matter can be transported over long distances in the atmosphere. An integrated assessment model for particulate matter developed at IIASA addresses the relative importance of the different types of particulates, distinguishing primary and secondary particles and two size fractions. The model projects these emissions into the future and seeks cost-effective strategies for reducing health risks to population. The model integrates the control of primary emissions of fine particles with strategies to reduce the precursor emissions for the secondary aerosols. Preliminary results addressing the PM2.5 fraction of both primary and secondary particulate matter indicate that in Europe the exposure to particulates will be significantly reduced as a side effect of the emission controls for conventional air pollutants (SO2, NOx, NH3).

Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: In this paper, the authors evaluated the radiological risk of nuclear submarines in the case of the Chazhma Bay accident and for a hypothetical reactivity accident of a retired submarine during defueling, assuming winter meteorological conditions.
Abstract: After the collapse of the Soviet Union and consequently the termination of the Cold War and the disarmament agreements, many nuclear warheads are in a queue for dismantling. As a result, substantial number of nuclear submarines equipped with ballistic missiles will be also withdrawn from service. However, Russian nuclear submarines have suffered from reactivity accidents five times. In the paper, a reactivity accident on a nuclear submarine that happened at Chazhma Bay located between Vladivostok and Nakhodka on August 10, 1985, has been described. In addition, the characteristics of submarine nuclear reactors, procedures of refueling, and the possibility of a similar accident are given. Further, the radiological risk to Japan and neighboring countries has been assessed by using an atmospheric pollutant transport code, WSPEEDI, developed by Japan Atomic Energy Research Institute. The radiological risk has been evaluated for the Chazhma Bay accident and for a hypothetical reactivity accident of a retired submarine during defueling, assuming winter meteorological conditions. The analyses have shown that the radioactive material might be transported in the atmosphere to Japan in one to several days and might contaminate wide areas of Japan. Under the assumptions taken in the paper, however, the radiological dose to population in the area might be not significant.