International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis

About: International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis is a nonprofit organization based out in Laxenburg, Austria. It is known for research contribution in the topics: Population & Greenhouse gas. The organization has 1369 authors who have published 5075 publications receiving 280467 citations. The organization is also known as: IIASA.

Can fisheries-induced evolution shift reference points for fisheries management?

Abstract: Biological reference points are important tools for fisheries management. Reference points are not static, but may change when a population's environment or the population itself changes. Fisheries-induced evolution is one mechanism that can alter population characteristics, leading to "shifting" reference points by modifying the underlying biological processes or by changing the perception of a fishery system. The former causes changes in "true" reference points, whereas the latter is caused by changes in the yardsticks used to quantify a system's status. Unaccounted shifts of either kind imply that reference points gradually lose their intended meaning. This can lead to increased precaution, which is safe, but potentially costly. Shifts can also occur in more perilous directions, such that actual risks are greater than anticipated. Our qualitative analysis suggests that all commonly used reference points are susceptible to shifting through fisheries-induced evolution, including the limit and "precautionary" reference points for spawning-stock biomass, B_lim and B_pa, and the target reference point for fishing mortality, F_0.1. Our findings call for increased awareness of fisheries-induced changes and highlight the value of always basing reference points on adequately updated information, to capture all changes in the biological processes that drive fish population dynamics.

The Global N2O Model Intercomparison Project

Abstract: Nitrous oxide (N2O) is an important greenhouse gas and also an ozone-depleting substance that has both natural and anthropogenic sources. Large estimation uncertainty remains on the magnitude and spatiotemporal patterns of N2O fluxes and the key drivers of N2O production in the terrestrial biosphere. Some terrestrial biosphere models have been evolved to account for nitrogen processes and to show the capability to simulate N2O emissions from land ecosystems at the global scale, but large discrepancies exist among their estimates primarily because of inconsistent input datasets, simulation protocol, and model structure and parameterization schemes. Based on the consistent model input data and simulation protocol, the global N2O Model Intercomparison Project (NMIP) was initialized with 10 state-of-the-art terrestrial biosphere models that include nitrogen (N) cycling. Specific objectives of NMIP are to 1) unravel the major N cycling processes controlling N2O fluxes in each model and identify the unc...

Rebuilding the eastern baltic cod stock under environmental change–a preliminary approach using stock, environmental, and management constraints

Abstract: The population dynamics of the Eastern Baltic cod (Gadus morhua callarias L.), unlike many other stocks, shows a strong dependency on environmental conditions. To test the implications of different management policies on the stock and the fishery in a system of global environmental change, we apply a spatially disaggregated, discrete time, age-structured model of the Eastern Baltic cod stock in 50 year simulation analyses. The simulation provides an analysis of stock, yield, and revenue development under various management policies and environmental scenarios. The policy analysis, focusing on different regulations of fishing mortality, is embedded into three environmental scenarios, assuming low, medium, or high climate and environmental change. The environmental assumptions are based on simulation results from a coupled atmosphere-ocean regional climate model, which project salinity in the Baltic Sea to decrease by 7-47% in the period 2071-2100 relative to the reference period 1961-1990. Our simulation results show that a significant reduction in fishing mortality is necessary for achieving high long-term economic yields. Moreover, under the presented environmental scenarios, a stock collapse cannot be prevented. It can, however, be postponed by the establishment of a marine reserve in ICES subdivision 25.

Meeting the Sustainable Development Goals leads to lower world population growth

Abstract: Here we show the extent to which the expected world population growth could be lowered by successfully implementing the recently agreed-upon Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). The SDGs include specific quantitative targets on mortality, reproductive health, and education for all girls by 2030, measures that will directly and indirectly affect future demographic trends. Based on a multidimensional model of population dynamics that stratifies national populations by age, sex, and level of education with educational fertility and mortality differentials, we translate these goals into SDG population scenarios, resulting in population sizes between 8.2 and 8.7 billion in 2100. Because these results lie outside the 95% prediction range given by the 2015 United Nations probabilistic population projections, we complement the study with sensitivity analyses of these projections that suggest that those prediction intervals are too narrow because of uncertainty in baseline data, conservative assumptions on correlations, and the possibility of new policies influencing these trends. Although the analysis presented here rests on several assumptions about the implementation of the SDGs and the persistence of educational, fertility, and mortality differentials, it quantitatively illustrates the view that demography is not destiny and that policies can make a decisive difference. In particular, advances in female education and reproductive health can contribute greatly to reducing world population growth.