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International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis

NonprofitLaxenburg, Austria
About: International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis is a nonprofit organization based out in Laxenburg, Austria. It is known for research contribution in the topics: Population & Greenhouse gas. The organization has 1369 authors who have published 5075 publications receiving 280467 citations. The organization is also known as: IIASA.


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Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: Wang et al. as discussed by the authors projected that the surface temperature will continue to increase with about 3.9 to 6.0 °C and precipitation is expected to increase by 9 to 11 % at the end of 21st century in China.
Abstract: Climate change can bring positive and negative effects on Chinese agriculture, but negative impacts tend to dominate. The annual mean surface temperature has risen about 0.5–0.8 °C. The precipitation trends have not been identified during the past 100 years in China, although the frequency and intensity of extreme weather/climate events have increased, especially of drought. Water scarcity, more frequent and serious outbreaks of insects and diseases, and soil degradation caused by climate change have impacted agro-environmental conditions. However, temperature rise prolonged the crop growth seasons and cold damages have reduced in Northeast China. The projection of climate change indicates that the surface temperature will continue to increase with about 3.9 to 6.0 °C and precipitation is expected to increase by 9 to 11 % at the end of 21st century in China. Climate warming will provide more heat and as a consequence, the boundary of the triple-cropping system (TCS) will extend northwards by as much as 200 to 300 km, from the Yangtze River Valley to the Yellow River Basin, and the current double-cropping system (DCS) will move to the central part of China, into the current single cropping system (SCS) area which will decrease in SCS surface area of 23.1 % by 2050. Climate warming will also affect the optimum location for the cultivation of China’s main crop varieties. If no measures are taken to adapt to climate changes, compared with the potential yield in 1961–1990, yields of irrigated wheat, corn and rice are projected to decrease by 2.2–6.7 %, 0.4 %–11.9 % and 4.3–12.4 % respectively in the 2050s. Climate warming will enhance potential evaporation and reduce the availability of soil moisture, thus causing a greater need for agricultural irrigation, intensifying the conflict between water supply and demand, especially in arid and semi-arid areas of China. With adequate irrigation, the extent of the reduction in yield of China’s corn and wheat can be improved by 5 % to 15 %, and rice by 5 % or so than the potential yield in 1961–1990. Adaptive measures can reduce the agricultural loss under climate change. If effective measures are taken in a timely way, then climate change in the next 30–50 years will not have a significant influence on China’s food security.

91 citations

Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: In this article, the potential and cost effectiveness of negative emissions in the joint production system of ethanol and electricity based on sugar cane, bagasse, and other residues in Brazil were assessed.

91 citations

Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: In this paper, the authors presented the first global population projections by educational attainment using methods of multi-state population projection and estimated the educational composition of the population by age and sex and educational fertility differentials.
Abstract: This research note presents the first global population projections by educational attainment using methods of multi-state population projection. The educational composition of the population by age and sex and educational fertility differentials are estimated for 13 world regions, and alternative scenarios are presented to the year 2030. One of these scenarios assumes constant educational transition rates and the other assumes that all regions reach Northern American levels of enrollment rates by 2030. The strong momentum or, as the case may be, inertia in the transformation of the educational composition of a population, seen in the results, arises because education is mostly acquired at a young age. The sex bias in the educational composition, especially evident in some developing countries, is unlikely to disappear soon. China has made remarkable progress in improving educational enrollment and as a consequence by 2030 is expected to have more educated people of working age than Europe and Northern America together.

91 citations

Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: In this paper, a model comparison study that combines multiple integrated assessment models with a reduced-form global air quality model to assess the potential co-benefits of global climate mitigation policies in relation to the World Health Organization (WHO) goals on air quality and health is presented.
Abstract: We present a model comparison study that combines multiple integrated assessment models with a reduced-form global air quality model to assess the potential co-benefits of global climate mitigation policies in relation to the World Health Organization (WHO) goals on air quality and health. We include in our assessment, a range of alternative assumptions on the implementation of current and planned pollution control policies. The resulting air pollution emission ranges significantly extend those in the Representative Concentration Pathways. Climate mitigation policies complement current efforts on air pollution control through technology and fuel transformations in the energy system. A combination of stringent policies on air pollution control and climate change mitigation results in 40% of the global population exposed to PM levels below the WHO air quality guideline; with the largest improvements estimated for India, China, and Middle East. Our results stress the importance of integrated multisector policy approaches to achieve the Sustainable Development Goals.

91 citations

Book ChapterDOI
01 Jun 2009
TL;DR: In this article, a review of the processes leading to local recapture of NHx near hot spots, as well as existing models and monitoring methods is presented, which range from research models to more operational models that can be coupled with long-range transport model provided the necessary information on emissions is available.
Abstract: Atmospheric reduced nitrogen (NHx) mainly originates from hot spots, which can be considered as intensive area or point sources. A large fraction of the emitted NHx may be recaptured by the surrounding vegetation, hence reducing the contribution of these hot spots to long-range transport of NHx. This paper reviews the processes leading to local recapture of NHx near hot spots, as well as existing models and monitoring methods. The existing models range from research models to more operational models that can be coupled with long-range transport model provided the necessary information on emissions is available. Local recapture of NH3 ranges from 2% to 60% within 2 km of a hot-spot and it is sensitive to source height atmospheric stability, wind speed, structure of the surrounding canopies, as well as stomatal absorpton, which mainly depends on green leaf area index and stomatal NH3 compensation point of vegetation, and finally, cuticular deposition, which depends primarily on vegetation wetness. The main uncertainties and limitations on NHx recapture models and monitoring techniques are discussed. Due to the decrease of sulphur and nitrogen oxides emissions under a series of UNECE protocols, reduced nitrogen (NHx), has become the dominant pollutant in Western Europe contributing to acidification of ecosystems (e.g. Vestreng and Storen 2000). At the global scale NHx and NOx emissions are comparable, although large uncertainties exist on NHx emissions (Dentener and Crutzen 1994; Bouwman et al. 1997). Moreover, NHx deposition, with other nitrogen (N) deposition, leads to eutrophication and changes in the biodiversity of semi-natural ecosystems (Van Breemen and van Dijk 1988; Roelofs et al. 1985; Fangmeier et al. 1994; Krupa 2003; EEA 2003). Although atmospheric ammonia (NH3) is not a greenhouse gas (GHG), deposition of NHx may lead to increased GHG emissions (N2O) (Melillo et al. 1989) or reduced consumpton of CH4. Additionally, ammonium sulphate aerosols (NH4)2SO4, contribute to half of the negative radiatve forcing of the atmosphere due to aerosols (Houghton et al. 2001; Adams et al. 2001), as well as contriuting to impacts of secondary aerosol on human health.

91 citations


Authors

Showing all 1418 results

NameH-indexPapersCitations
Martin A. Nowak14859194394
Paul J. Crutzen13046180651
Andreas Richter11076948262
David G. Streets10636442154
Drew Shindell10234049481
Wei Liu102292765228
Jean-Francois Lamarque10038555326
Frank Dentener9722058666
James W. Vaupel8943434286
Keywan Riahi8731858030
Larry W. Horowitz8525328706
Robert J. Scholes8425337019
Mark A. Sutton8342330716
Brian Walsh8223329589
Börje Johansson8287130985
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Performance
Metrics
No. of papers from the Institution in previous years
YearPapers
202360
202263
2021414
2020406
2019383
2018325