International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis

About: International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis is a nonprofit organization based out in Laxenburg, Austria. It is known for research contribution in the topics: Population & Greenhouse gas. The organization has 1369 authors who have published 5075 publications receiving 280467 citations. The organization is also known as: IIASA.

Norms as emergent properties of adaptive learning: The case of economic routines

Abstract: Interaction among autonomous decision-makers is usually modelled in economics in game-theoretic terms or within the framework of General Equilibrium. Game-theoretic and General Equilibrium models deal almost exclusively with the existence of equilibria and do not analyse the processes which might lead to them. Even when existence proofs can be given, two questions are still open. The first concerns the possibility of multiple equilibria, which game theory has shown to be the case even in very simple models and which makes the outcome of interaction unpredictable. The second relates to the computability and complexity of the decision procedures which agents should adopt and questions the possibility of reaching an equilibrium by means of an algorithmically implementable strategy. Some theorems have recently proved that in many economically relevant problems equilibria are not computable. A different approach to the problem of strategic interaction is a “constructivist” one. Such a perspective, instead of being based upon an axiomatic view of human behaviour grounded on the principle of optimisation, focuses on algorithmically implementable “satisfycing” decision procedures. Once the axiomatic approach has been abandoned, decision procedures cannot be deduced from rationality assumptions, but must be the evolving outcome of a process of learning and adaptation to the particular environment in which the decision must be made. This paper considers one of the most recently proposed adaptive learning models: Genetic Programming and applies it to one the mostly studied and still controversial economic interaction environment, that of oligopolistic markets. Genetic Programming evolves decision procedures, represented by elements in the space of functions, balancing the exploitation of knowledge previously obtained with the search of more productive procedures. The results obtained are consistent with the evidence from the observation of the behaviour of real economic agents.

Is there warming in the pipeline? A multi-model analysis of the Zero Emissions Commitment from CO 2

Abstract: The Zero Emissions Commitment (ZEC) is the change in global mean temperature expected to occur following the cessation of net CO2 emissions and as such is a critical parameter for calculating the remaining carbon budget. The Zero Emissions Commitment Model Intercomparison Project (ZECMIP) was established to gain a better understanding of the potential magnitude and sign of ZEC, in addition to the processes that underlie this metric. A total of 18 Earth system models of both full and intermediate complexity participated in ZECMIP. All models conducted an experiment where atmospheric CO2 concentration increases exponentially until 1000 PgC has been emitted. Thereafter emissions are set to zero and models are configured to allow free evolution of atmospheric CO2 concentration. Many models conducted additional second-priority simulations with different cumulative emission totals and an alternative idealized emissions pathway with a gradual transition to zero emissions. The inter-model range of ZEC 50 years after emissions cease for the 1000 PgC experiment is −0.36 to 0.29 ∘C, with a model ensemble mean of −0.07 ∘C, median of −0.05 ∘C, and standard deviation of 0.19 ∘C. Models exhibit a wide variety of behaviours after emissions cease, with some models continuing to warm for decades to millennia and others cooling substantially. Analysis shows that both the carbon uptake by the ocean and the terrestrial biosphere are important for counteracting the warming effect from the reduction in ocean heat uptake in the decades after emissions cease. This warming effect is difficult to constrain due to high uncertainty in the efficacy of ocean heat uptake. Overall, the most likely value of ZEC on multi-decadal timescales is close to zero, consistent with previous model experiments and simple theory.

Development and testing of a community flood resilience measurement tool

Abstract: . Given the increased attention on resilience strengthening in international humanitarian and development work, there is a growing need to invest in its measurement and the overall accountability of resilience strengthening initiatives. The purpose of this article is to present our framework and tool for measuring community-level resilience to flooding and generating empirical evidence and to share our experience in the application of the resilience concept. At the time of writing the tool is being tested in 75 communities across eight countries. Currently 88 potential sources of resilience are measured at the baseline (initial state) and end line (final state) approximately 2 years later. If a flood occurs in the community during the study period, resilience outcome measures are recorded. By comparing pre-flood characteristics to post-flood outcomes, we aim to empirically verify sources of resilience, something which has never been done in this field. There is an urgent need for the continued development of theoretically anchored, empirically verified, and practically applicable disaster resilience measurement frameworks and tools so that the field may (a) deepen understanding of the key components of disaster resilience in order to better target resilience-enhancing initiatives, and (b) enhance our ability to benchmark and measure disaster resilience over time, and (c) compare how resilience changes as a result of different capacities, actions and hazards.

The 2020 China report of the Lancet Countdown on health and climate change.

Abstract: Wenjia Cai*, Chi Zhang*, Hoi Ping Suen*, Siqi Ai, Yuqi Bai, Junzhe Bao, Bin Chen, Liangliang Cheng, Xueqin Cui, Hancheng Dai, Qian Di, Wenxuan Dong, Deijing Dou, Weicheng Fan, Xing Fan, Tong Gao, Yang Geng, Dabo Guan, Yafei Guo, Yixin Hu, Junyi Hua, Cunrui Huang, Hong Huang, Jianbin Huang, Tingting Jiang, Kedi Jiao, Gregor Kiesewetter, Zbigniew Klimont, Pete Lampard, Chuanxi Li, Qiwei Li, Ruiqi Li, Tiantian Li, Borong Lin, Hualiang Lin, Huan Liu, Qiyong Liu, Xiaobo Liu, Yufu Liu, Zhao Liu, Zhidong Liu, Zhu Liu, Shuhan Lou, Chenxi Lu, Yong Luo, Wei Ma, Alice McGushin, Yanlin Niu, Chao Ren, Zhehao Ren, Zengliang Ruan, Wolfgang Schöpp, Jing Su, Ying Tu, Jie Wang, Qiong Wang, Yaqi Wang, Yu Wang, Nick Watts, Congxi Xiao, Yang Xie, Hui Xiong, Mingfang Xu, Bing Xu, Lei Xu, Jun Yang, Lianping Yang, Le Yu, Yujuan Yue, Shaohui Zhang, Zhongchen Zhang, Jiyao Zhao, Liang Zhao, Mengzhen Zhao, Zhe Zhao, Jingbo Zhou, Peng Gong