International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis

About: International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis is a nonprofit organization based out in Laxenburg, Austria. It is known for research contribution in the topics: Population & Greenhouse gas. The organization has 1369 authors who have published 5075 publications receiving 280467 citations. The organization is also known as: IIASA.

On "badly behaved" dynamics (Some applications of generalized urn schemes to technological and economic change)

Abstract: Adaptive (path dependent) processes of growth modeled by urn schemes are important for several fields of applications: biology, physics, chemistry, economics. In this paper we present a general introduction to urn schemes, together with some new results. We review the studies that have been done in the technological dynamics by means of such schemes. Also several other domains of economic dynamics are analysed by the same machinery and its new modifications allowing to tackle non-homogeneity of the phase space. We demonstrate the phenomena of multiple equilibria, different vonvergence rates for different limit patterns, locally positive and locally negative feedbacks, limit behavior associated with non-homogeneity of economic environment where producers (firms) are operating. It is also shown that the above urn processes represent a natural and convenient stochastic replicator dynamics which can be used in evolutionary games.

Global public goods and the global health agenda: problems, priorities and potential.

Abstract: The 'global public good' (GPG) concept has gained increasing attention, in health as well as development circles. However, it has suffered in finding currency as a general tool for global resource mobilisation, and is at risk of being attached to almost anything promoting development. This overstretches and devalues the validity and usefulness of the concept. This paper first defines GPGs and describes the policy challenge that they pose. Second, it identifies two key areas, health R&D and communicable disease control, in which the GPG concept is clearly relevant and considers the extent to which it has been applied. We point out that that, while there have been many new initiatives, it is not clear that additional resources from non-traditional sources have been forthcoming. Yet achieving this is, in effect, the entire purpose of applying the GPG concept in global health. Moreover, the proliferation of disease-specific programs associated with GPG reasoning has tended to promote vertical interventions at the expense of more general health sector strengthening. Third, we examine two major global health policy initiatives, the Global Fund against AIDS, Tuberculosis and Malaria (GFATM) and the bundling of long-standing international health goals in the form of Millennium Development Goals (MDG), asking how the GPG perspective has contributed to defining objectives and strategies. We conclude that both initiatives are best interpreted in the context of traditional development assistance and, one-world rhetoric aside, have little to do with the challenge posed by GPGs for health. The paper concludes by considering how the GPG concept can be more effectively used to promote global health.

Assessing the potential impact of COVID-19 on life expectancy.

Abstract: Background The COVID-19 pandemic has caused a significant number of deaths worldwide. If the prevalence of the virus infection continues to rise, it can potentially have an impact on life expectancy. This paper provides first estimates of the potential impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on period life expectancy. Methods From the estimates of bias-adjusted age-specific case fatality rates in Hubei (China) and a range of six assumptions of prevalence rates ranging from 1% to 70%, we built a discrete-time microsimulation model that simulates the number of infected by COVID-19, the number of dying from it and the number of dying from all causes week by week for a period of one year. We applied our simulation to four broad regions: North America and Europe, Latin America and the Caribbean, South Eastern Asia, and Sub-Saharan African. For each region, 100,000 individuals per each 5-year age group are simulated. Results At 10% prevalence rate, the loss in life expectancy at birth is likely above 1 year in North America and Europe and in Latin America and the Caribbean. In South Eastern Asia and in Sub-Saharan Africa, one year lost in life expectancy corresponds to a prevalence of infection of about 15% and 25%, respectively. Given the uncertainty in fatality rates, with a prevalence of COVID-19 infections of 50% under 95% prediction intervals, life expectancy would drop by 3 to 9 years in North America and Europe, by 3 to 8 years in Latin America and the Caribbean, by 2 to 7 years in South Eastern Asia and by 1 to 4 in Sub-Saharan Africa. In all prevalence scenarios, as long as the prevalence rate of COVID-19 infection remains below 1 or 2%, COVID-19 would not affect life expectancy in a substantial manner. Interpretation In the regions with relatively high life expectancy, for a prevalence of infection threshold above 1 or 2%, the COVID-19 pandemic will break the secular trend of increasing life expectancy resulting in a decline in period life expectancy. With life expectancy being a key indicator of human development, mortality increase, especially among the vulnerable subgroups of populations would set the country back on their path of human development.

Illuminating water cycle modifications and Earth system resilience in the Anthropocene

Abstract: Fresh water – the bloodstream of the biosphere – is at the centre of the planetary drama of the Anthropocene. Water fluxes and stores regulate the Earth’s climate and are essential for thriving aquatic and terrestrial ecosystems, as well as water, food and energy security. But the water cycle is also being modified by humans at an unprecedented scale and rate. A holistic understanding of freshwater’s role for Earth System resilience and the detection and monitoring of anthropogenic water cycle modifications across scales is urgent, yet existing methods and frameworks are not well suited for this. In this paper we highlight four core Earth System functions of water (hydroclimatic regulation, hydroecological regulation, storage, and transport) and key related processes. Building on systems and resilience theory, we review the evidence of regional-scale regime shifts and disruptions of the Earth System functions of water. We then propose a framework for detecting, monitoring, and establishing safe limits to water cycle modifications, and identify four possible spatially explicit methods for their quantification. In sum, this paper presents an ambitious scientific and policy Grand Challenge that could substantially improve our understanding of the role of water in the Earth System and cross-scale management of water cycle modifications that would be a complementary approach to existing water management tools.