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Institution

International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis

NonprofitLaxenburg, Austria
About: International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis is a nonprofit organization based out in Laxenburg, Austria. It is known for research contribution in the topics: Population & Greenhouse gas. The organization has 1369 authors who have published 5075 publications receiving 280467 citations. The organization is also known as: IIASA.


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Journal ArticleDOI
14 Sep 2018
TL;DR: In this article, the authors take a probabilistic approach to assess global water scarcity projections following feasible combinations of shared socioeconomic pathways and representative concentration pathways for the first half of the twenty-first century and identify changes in the uncertainty range of anticipated water scarcity conditions.
Abstract: Water scarcity, a critical environmental issue worldwide, has primarily been driven by a significant increase in water extractions during the last century In the coming decades, climate and societal changes are projected to further exacerbate water scarcity in many regions worldwide Today, a major issue for the ongoing policy debate is to identify interventions able to address water scarcity challenges in the presence of large uncertainties Here, we take a probabilistic approach to assess global water scarcity projections following feasible combinations of shared socioeconomic pathways and representative concentration pathways for the first half of the twenty-first century We identify—alongside trends in median water scarcity—changes in the uncertainty range of anticipated water scarcity conditions Our results show that median water scarcity and the associated range of uncertainty are generally increasing worldwide, including many major river basins On the basis of these results, we develop a general decision-making framework to enhance policymaking by identifying four representative clusters of specific water policy challenges and needs Designing interventions to address water scarcity under climate change is challenging given the large uncertainties in projected water availability In this study, changes in the uncertainty range of anticipated water scarcity conditions are identified, and a general decision-making framework to support policy decisions is developed

218 citations

Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: This paper analyses the method and results of combining a backcasting methodology and exploratory scenario development process to develop scenarios at pan-European level and hopes to have demonstrated that it is conceptually appealing, methodologically feasible, and practically useful to combine exploratory scenarios development and backcasting analysis.

217 citations

Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: The evolutionarily stable conditional dispersal strategy for individuals that can account for the local population density in their dispersal decisions is calculated and is calculated as the mean number of dispersers produced through lines of descent consisting of only non–dispersers.
Abstract: We define a fitness concept applicable to structured metapopulations consisting of infinitely many equally coupled patches. In addition, we introduce a more easily calculated quantity Rm that relates to fitness in the same manner as R0 relates to fitness in ordinary population dynamics: the Rm of a mutant is only defined when the resident population dynamics converges to a point equilibrium and Rm is larger (smaller) than 1 if and only if mutant fitness is positive (negative). Rm corresponds to the average number of newborn dispersers resulting from the (on average less than one) local colony founded by a newborn disperser. Efficient algorithms for calculating its numerical value are provided. As an example of the usefulness of these concepts we calculate the evolutionarily stable conditional dispersal strategy for individuals that can account for the local population density in their dispersal decisions. Below a threshold density x, at which staying and leaving are equality profitable, everybody should stay and above x everybody should leave, where profitability is measured as the mean number of dispersers produced through lines of descent consisting of non-dispersers.

217 citations

Journal ArticleDOI
01 Apr 2010-Energy
TL;DR: In this paper, the authors re-examine the energy-GDP relationship for the US for the period 1946-2000 by redefining energy in terms of exergy (the amount of energy available for useful work) and the amount of useful work provided from energy inputs.

215 citations

Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: In this article, the authors identify the current state of carbon observations, and the needs and notional requirements for a global integrated carbon observation system that can be built in the next decade, and conclude that substantial expansion of the ground-based observation networks required to reach the high spatial resolution for CO2 and CH4 fluxes, and for carbon stocks for addressing policy-relevant objectives, and attributing flux changes to underlying processes in each region.
Abstract: A globally integrated carbon observation and analysis system is needed to improve the fundamental understanding of the global carbon cycle, to improve our ability to project future changes, and to verify the effectiveness of policies aiming to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and increase carbon sequestration. Building an integrated carbon observation system requires transformational advances from the existing sparse, exploratory framework towards a dense, robust, and sustained system in all components: anthropogenic emissions, the atmosphere, the ocean, and the terrestrial biosphere. The paper is addressed to scientists, policymakers, and funding agencies who need to have a global picture of the current state of the (diverse) carbon observations. We identify the current state of carbon observations, and the needs and notional requirements for a global integrated carbon observation system that can be built in the next decade. A key conclusion is the substantial expansion of the ground-based observation networks required to reach the high spatial resolution for CO2 and CH4 fluxes, and for carbon stocks for addressing policy-relevant objectives, and attributing flux changes to underlying processes in each region. In order to establish flux and stock diagnostics over areas such as the southern oceans, tropical forests, and the Arctic, in situ observations will have to be complemented with remote-sensing measurements. Remote sensing offers the advantage of dense spatial coverage and frequent revisit. A key challenge is to bring remote-sensing measurements to a level of long-term consistency and accuracy so that they can be efficiently combined in models to reduce uncertainties, in synergy with ground-based data. Bringing tight observational constraints on fossil fuel and land use change emissions will be the biggest challenge for deployment of a policy-relevant integrated carbon observation system. This will require in situ and remotely sensed data at much higher resolution and density than currently achieved for natural fluxes, although over a small land area (cities, industrial sites, power plants), as well as the inclusion of fossil fuel CO2 proxy measurements such as radiocarbon in CO2 and carbon-fuel combustion tracers. Additionally, a policy-relevant carbon monitoring system should also provide mechanisms for reconciling regional top-down (atmosphere-based) and bottom-up (surface-based) flux estimates across the range of spatial and temporal scales relevant to mitigation policies. In addition, uncertainties for each observation data-stream should be assessed. The success of the system will rely on long-term commitments to monitoring, on improved international collaboration to fill gaps in the current observations, on sustained efforts to improve access to the different data streams and make databases interoperable, and on the calibration of each component of the system to agreed-upon international scales.

214 citations


Authors

Showing all 1418 results

NameH-indexPapersCitations
Martin A. Nowak14859194394
Paul J. Crutzen13046180651
Andreas Richter11076948262
David G. Streets10636442154
Drew Shindell10234049481
Wei Liu102292765228
Jean-Francois Lamarque10038555326
Frank Dentener9722058666
James W. Vaupel8943434286
Keywan Riahi8731858030
Larry W. Horowitz8525328706
Robert J. Scholes8425337019
Mark A. Sutton8342330716
Brian Walsh8223329589
Börje Johansson8287130985
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Performance
Metrics
No. of papers from the Institution in previous years
YearPapers
202360
202263
2021414
2020406
2019383
2018325