Institution
Joint Global Change Research Institute
Facility•Riverdale Park, Maryland, United States•
About: Joint Global Change Research Institute is a facility organization based out in Riverdale Park, Maryland, United States. It is known for research contribution in the topics: Greenhouse gas & Climate change. The organization has 197 authors who have published 934 publications receiving 62390 citations.
Papers published on a yearly basis
Papers
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Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency1, Utrecht University2, Joint Global Change Research Institute3, National Institute for Environmental Studies4, International Institute of Minnesota5, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory6, University of Maryland, College Park7, National Center for Atmospheric Research8, Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research9, Vienna University of Technology10, Electric Power Research Institute11
TL;DR: The Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) as discussed by the authors is a set of four new pathways developed for the climate modeling community as a basis for long-term and near-term modeling experiments.
Abstract: This paper summarizes the development process and main characteristics of the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs), a set of four new pathways developed for the climate modeling community as a basis for long-term and near-term modeling experiments. The four RCPs together span the range of year 2100 radiative forcing values found in the open literature, i.e. from 2.6 to 8.5 W/m 2 . The RCPs are the product of an innovative collaboration between integrated assessment modelers, climate modelers, terrestrial ecosystem modelers and emission inventory experts. The resulting product forms a comprehensive data set with high spatial and sectoral resolutions for the period extending to 2100. Land use and emissions of air pollutants and greenhouse gases are reported mostly at a 0.5×0.5 degree spatial resolution, with air pollutants also provided per sector (for well-mixed gases, a coarser resolution is used). The underlying integrated assessment model outputs for land use, atmospheric emissions and concentration data were harmonized across models and scenarios to ensure consistency with historical observations while preserving individual scenario trends. For most variables, the RCPs cover a wide range of the existing literature. The RCPs are supplemented with extensions (Extended Concentration Pathways, ECPs), which allow
6,169 citations
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Joint Global Change Research Institute1, National Center for Atmospheric Research2, Victoria University of Wellington3, Electric Power Research Institute4, Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency5, Finnish Environment Institute6, National Institute for Environmental Studies7, Met Office8, Vienna University of Technology9, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis10, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration11, Stanford University12, Oak Ridge National Laboratory13
TL;DR: A new process for creating plausible scenarios to investigate some of the most challenging and important questions about climate change confronting the global community is described.
Abstract: Advances in the science and observation of climate change are providing a clearer understanding of the inherent variability of Earth's climate system and its likely response to human and natural influences. The implications of climate change for the environment and society will depend not only on the response of the Earth system to changes in radiative forcings, but also on how humankind responds through changes in technology, economies, lifestyle and policy. Extensive uncertainties exist in future forcings of and responses to climate change, necessitating the use of scenarios of the future to explore the potential consequences of different response options. To date, such scenarios have not adequately examined crucial possibilities, such as climate change mitigation and adaptation, and have relied on research processes that slowed the exchange of information among physical, biological and social scientists. Here we describe a new process for creating plausible scenarios to investigate some of the most challenging and important questions about climate change confronting the global community.
5,670 citations
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International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis1, Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency2, Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research3, Joint Global Change Research Institute4, National Center for Atmospheric Research5, National Institute for Environmental Studies6, Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development7, Shanghai University8, Eni9, University of Washington10, Bocconi University11, KAIST12, Humboldt University of Berlin13, Wageningen University and Research Centre14, Polytechnic University of Milan15
TL;DR: In this article, the authors present the overview of the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) and their energy, land use, and emissions implications, and find that associated costs strongly depend on three factors: (1) the policy assumptions, (2) the socioeconomic narrative, and (3) the stringency of the target.
Abstract: This paper presents the overview of the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) and their energy, land use, and emissions implications. The SSPs are part of a new scenario framework, established by the climate change research community in order to facilitate the integrated analysis of future climate impacts, vulnerabilities, adaptation, and mitigation. The pathways were developed over the last years as a joint community effort and describe plausible major global developments that together would lead in the future to different challenges for mitigation and adaptation to climate change. The SSPs are based on five narratives describing alternative socio-economic developments, including sustainable development, regional rivalry, inequality, fossil-fueled development, and middle-of-the-road development. The long-term demographic and economic projections of the SSPs depict a wide uncertainty range consistent with the scenario literature. A multi-model approach was used for the elaboration of the energy, land-use and the emissions trajectories of SSP-based scenarios. The baseline scenarios lead to global energy consumption of 400–1200 EJ in 2100, and feature vastly different land-use dynamics, ranging from a possible reduction in cropland area up to a massive expansion by more than 700 million hectares by 2100. The associated annual CO 2 emissions of the baseline scenarios range from about 25 GtCO 2 to more than 120 GtCO 2 per year by 2100. With respect to mitigation, we find that associated costs strongly depend on three factors: (1) the policy assumptions, (2) the socio-economic narrative, and (3) the stringency of the target. The carbon price for reaching the target of 2.6 W/m 2 that is consistent with a temperature change limit of 2 °C, differs in our analysis thus by about a factor of three across the SSP marker scenarios. Moreover, many models could not reach this target from the SSPs with high mitigation challenges. While the SSPs were designed to represent different mitigation and adaptation challenges, the resulting narratives and quantifications span a wide range of different futures broadly representative of the current literature. This allows their subsequent use and development in new assessments and research projects. Critical next steps for the community scenario process will, among others, involve regional and sectoral extensions, further elaboration of the adaptation and impacts dimension, as well as employing the SSP scenarios with the new generation of earth system models as part of the 6th climate model intercomparison project (CMIP6).
2,644 citations
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National Center for Atmospheric Research1, University of Illinois at Urbana–Champaign2, German Aerospace Center3, Earth System Research Laboratory4, Centre national de la recherche scientifique5, Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences6, Forschungszentrum Jülich7, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis8, Manchester Metropolitan University9, Goddard Institute for Space Studies10, Joint Global Change Research Institute11, Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency12, Cornell University13, Desert Research Institute14, Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory15
TL;DR: In this paper, the authors present a new dataset of gridded emissions covering the historical period (1850-2000) in decadal increments at a horizontal resolution of 0.5° in latitude and longitude.
Abstract: We present and discuss a new dataset of gridded emissions covering the historical period (1850–2000) in decadal increments at a horizontal resolution of 0.5° in latitude and longitude. The primary purpose of this inventory is to provide consistent gridded emissions of reactive gases and aerosols for use in chemistry model simulations needed by climate models for the Climate Model Intercomparison Program #5 (CMIP5) in support of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Fifth Assessment Report (AR5). Our best estimate for the year 2000 inventory represents a combination of existing regional and global inventories to capture the best information available at this point; 40 regions and 12 sectors are used to combine the various sources. The historical reconstruction of each emitted compound, for each region and sector, is then forced to agree with our 2000 estimate, ensuring continuity between past and 2000 emissions. Simulations from two chemistry-climate models is used to test the ability of the emission dataset described here to capture long-term changes in atmospheric ozone, carbon monoxide and aerosol distributions. The simulated long-term change in the Northern mid-latitudes surface and mid-troposphere ozone is not quite as rapid as observed. However, stations outside this latitude band show much better agreement in both present-day and long-term trend. The model simulations indicate that the concentration of carbon monoxide is underestimated at the Mace Head station; however, the long-term trend over the limited observational period seems to be reasonably well captured. The simulated sulfate and black carbon deposition over Greenland is in very good agreement with the ice-core observations spanning the simulation period. Finally, aerosol optical depth and additional aerosol diagnostics are shown to be in good agreement with previously published estimates and observations.
1,953 citations
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University of Lisbon1, University of Paris-Sud2, Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency3, United Nations Environment Programme4, Spanish National Research Council5, University of Évora6, National Autonomous University of Mexico7, Stockholm University8, University of East Anglia9, University of Maryland, College Park10, Hawaii Pacific University11, University of British Columbia12, Joint Global Change Research Institute13, Imperial College London14, The Nature Conservancy15, Virginia Tech College of Natural Resources and Environment16
TL;DR: Scenarios consistently indicate that biodiversity will continue to decline over the 21st century, however, the range of projected changes is much broader than most studies suggest, partly because there are major opportunities to intervene through better policies, but also because of large uncertainties in projections.
Abstract: Quantitative scenarios are coming of age as a tool for evaluating the impact of future socioeconomic development pathways on biodiversity and ecosystem services. We analyze global terrestrial, freshwater, and marine biodiversity scenarios using a range of measures including extinctions, changes in species abundance, habitat loss, and distribution shifts, as well as comparing model projections to observations. Scenarios consistently indicate that biodiversity will continue to decline over the 21st century. However, the range of projected changes is much broader than most studies suggest, partly because there are major opportunities to intervene through better policies, but also because of large uncertainties in projections.
1,725 citations
Authors
Showing all 213 results
Name | H-index | Papers | Citations |
---|---|---|---|
Katherine Calvin | 58 | 181 | 14764 |
Steven J. Smith | 58 | 190 | 36110 |
George C. Hurtt | 57 | 159 | 24734 |
Brian C. O'Neill | 57 | 174 | 14636 |
Leon Clarke | 53 | 181 | 10770 |
James A. Edmonds | 51 | 175 | 10494 |
Claudia Tebaldi | 50 | 100 | 21389 |
Roberto C. Izaurralde | 48 | 142 | 9790 |
Ghassem R. Asrar | 46 | 141 | 12280 |
Yuyu Zhou | 46 | 169 | 6578 |
Ben Bond-Lamberty | 43 | 144 | 7732 |
Marshall Wise | 40 | 110 | 7074 |
William K. M. Lau | 40 | 154 | 7095 |
Allison M. Thomson | 39 | 91 | 22037 |
Ben Kravitz | 37 | 127 | 4256 |