Showing papers by "Monash University published in 2019"

RoB 2: a revised tool for assessing risk of bias in randomised trials.

Abstract: Assessment of risk of bias is regarded as an essential component of a systematic review on the effects of an intervention. The most commonly used tool for randomised trials is the Cochrane risk-of-bias tool. We updated the tool to respond to developments in understanding how bias arises in randomised trials, and to address user feedback on and limitations of the original tool.

Updated guidance for trusted systematic reviews: a new edition of the Cochrane Handbook for Systematic Reviews of Interventions.

Abstract: On a shelf in the sunny, open-plan office of Cochrane Australia in Melbourne, there's a large, white ring-binder that, it's fair to say, hasn't been opened in a while. It's a printed copy of the original, 1994 edition of the Cochrane Collaboration Handbook, edited by Dave Sackett,[1] and within it the original guidance on the methods to be used. The section on preparing and maintaining systematic reviews, edited by Andy Oxman, weighs in at a total of 76 pages.[2]

Deep learning for time series classification: a review

Abstract: Time Series Classification (TSC) is an important and challenging problem in data mining. With the increase of time series data availability, hundreds of TSC algorithms have been proposed. Among these methods, only a few have considered Deep Neural Networks (DNNs) to perform this task. This is surprising as deep learning has seen very successful applications in the last years. DNNs have indeed revolutionized the field of computer vision especially with the advent of novel deeper architectures such as Residual and Convolutional Neural Networks. Apart from images, sequential data such as text and audio can also be processed with DNNs to reach state-of-the-art performance for document classification and speech recognition. In this article, we study the current state-of-the-art performance of deep learning algorithms for TSC by presenting an empirical study of the most recent DNN architectures for TSC. We give an overview of the most successful deep learning applications in various time series domains under a unified taxonomy of DNNs for TSC. We also provide an open source deep learning framework to the TSC community where we implemented each of the compared approaches and evaluated them on a univariate TSC benchmark (the UCR/UEA archive) and 12 multivariate time series datasets. By training 8730 deep learning models on 97 time series datasets, we propose the most exhaustive study of DNNs for TSC to date.

Performance of neural network basecalling tools for Oxford Nanopore sequencing.

Abstract: Basecalling, the computational process of translating raw electrical signal to nucleotide sequence, is of critical importance to the sequencing platforms produced by Oxford Nanopore Technologies (ONT). Here, we examine the performance of different basecalling tools, looking at accuracy at the level of bases within individual reads and at majority-rule consensus basecalls in an assembly. We also investigate some additional aspects of basecalling: training using a taxon-specific dataset, using a larger neural network model and improving consensus basecalls in an assembly by additional signal-level analysis with Nanopolish. Training basecallers on taxon-specific data results in a significant boost in consensus accuracy, mostly due to the reduction of errors in methylation motifs. A larger neural network is able to improve both read and consensus accuracy, but at a cost to speed. Improving consensus sequences (‘polishing’) with Nanopolish somewhat negates the accuracy differences in basecallers, but pre-polish accuracy does have an effect on post-polish accuracy. Basecalling accuracy has seen significant improvements over the last 2 years. The current version of ONT’s Guppy basecaller performs well overall, with good accuracy and fast performance. If higher accuracy is required, users should consider producing a custom model using a larger neural network and/or training data from the same species.

An agenda for sustainability transitions research: State of the art and future directions

Abstract: Research on sustainability transitions has expanded rapidly in the last ten years, diversified in terms of topics and geographical applications, and deepened with respect to theories and methods. This article provides an extensive review and an updated research agenda for the field, classified into nine main themes: understanding transitions; power, agency and politics; governing transitions; civil society, culture and social movements; businesses and industries; transitions in practice and everyday life; geography of transitions; ethical aspects; and methodologies. The review shows that the scope of sustainability transitions research has broadened and connections to established disciplines have grown stronger. At the same time, we see that the grand challenges related to sustainability remain unsolved, calling for continued efforts and an acceleration of ongoing transitions. Transition studies can play a key role in this regard by creating new perspectives, approaches and understanding and helping to move society in the direction of sustainability.

GLIM Criteria for the Diagnosis of Malnutrition: A Consensus Report From the Global Clinical Nutrition Community

Abstract: Summary Rationale This initiative is focused on building a global consensus around core diagnostic criteria for malnutrition in adults in clinical settings Methods In January 2016, the Global Leadership Initiative on Malnutrition (GLIM) was convened by several of the major global clinical nutrition societies GLIM appointed a core leadership committee and a supporting working group with representatives bringing additional global diversity and expertise Empirical consensus was reached through a series of face-to-face meetings, telephone conferences, and e-mail communications Results A two-step approach for the malnutrition diagnosis was selected, ie, first screening to identify “at risk” status by the use of any validated screening tool, and second, assessment for diagnosis and grading the severity of malnutrition The malnutrition criteria for consideration were retrieved from existing approaches for screening and assessment Potential criteria were subjected to a ballot among the GLIM core and supporting working group members The top five ranked criteria included three phenotypic criteria (non-volitional weight loss, low body mass index, and reduced muscle mass) and two etiologic criteria (reduced food intake or assimilation, and inflammation or disease burden) To diagnose malnutrition at least one phenotypic criterion and one etiologic criterion should be present Phenotypic metrics for grading severity as Stage 1 (moderate) and Stage 2 (severe) malnutrition are proposed It is recommended that the etiologic criteria be used to guide intervention and anticipated outcomes The recommended approach supports classification of malnutrition into four etiology-related diagnosis categories Conclusion A consensus scheme for diagnosing malnutrition in adults in clinical settings on a global scale is proposed Next steps are to secure further collaboration and endorsements from leading nutrition professional societies, to identify overlaps with syndromes like cachexia and sarcopenia, and to promote dissemination, validation studies, and feedback The diagnostic construct should be re-considered every 3–5 years

Enzalutamide with Standard First-Line Therapy in Metastatic Prostate Cancer

Abstract: Background Enzalutamide, an androgen-receptor inhibitor, has been associated with improved overall survival in men with castration-resistant prostate cancer. It is not known whether adding enzalutamide to testosterone suppression, with or without early docetaxel, will improve survival in men with metastatic, hormone-sensitive prostate cancer. Methods In this open-label, randomized, phase 3 trial, we assigned patients to receive testosterone suppression plus either open-label enzalutamide or a standard nonsteroidal antiandrogen therapy (standard-care group). The primary end point was overall survival. Secondary end points included progression-free survival as determined by the prostate-specific antigen (PSA) level, clinical progression-free survival, and adverse events. Results A total of 1125 men underwent randomization; the median follow-up was 34 months. There were 102 deaths in the enzalutamide group and 143 deaths in the standard-care group (hazard ratio, 0.67; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.52 to 0.86; P = 0.002). Kaplan-Meier estimates of overall survival at 3 years were 80% (based on 94 events) in the enzalutamide group and 72% (based on 130 events) in the standard-care group. Better results with enzalutamide were also seen in PSA progression-free survival (174 and 333 events, respectively; hazard ratio, 0.39; P Conclusions Enzalutamide was associated with significantly longer progression-free and overall survival than standard care in men with metastatic, hormone-sensitive prostate cancer receiving testosterone suppression. The enzalutamide group had a higher incidence of seizures and other toxic effects, especially among those treated with early docetaxel. (Funded by Astellas Scientific and Medical Affairs and others; ENZAMET (ANZUP 1304) ANZCTR number, ACTRN12614000110684; ClinicalTrials.gov number, NCT02446405; and EU Clinical Trials Register number, 2014-003190-42.).

Global guideline for the diagnosis and management of mucormycosis: an initiative of the European Confederation of Medical Mycology in cooperation with the Mycoses Study Group Education and Research Consortium

Abstract: Mucormycosis is a difficult to diagnose rare disease with high morbidity and mortality. Diagnosis is often delayed, and disease tends to progress rapidly. Urgent surgical and medical intervention is lifesaving. Guidance on the complex multidisciplinary management has potential to improve prognosis, but approaches differ between health-care settings. From January, 2018, authors from 33 countries in all United Nations regions analysed the published evidence on mucormycosis management and provided consensus recommendations addressing differences between the regions of the world as part of the "One World One Guideline" initiative of the European Confederation of Medical Mycology (ECMM). Diagnostic management does not differ greatly between world regions. Upon suspicion of mucormycosis appropriate imaging is strongly recommended to document extent of disease and is followed by strongly recommended surgical intervention. First-line treatment with high-dose liposomal amphotericin B is strongly recommended, while intravenous isavuconazole and intravenous or delayed release tablet posaconazole are recommended with moderate strength. Both triazoles are strongly recommended salvage treatments. Amphotericin B deoxycholate is recommended against, because of substantial toxicity, but may be the only option in resource limited settings. Management of mucormycosis depends on recognising disease patterns and on early diagnosis. Limited availability of contemporary treatments burdens patients in low and middle income settings. Areas of uncertainty were identified and future research directions specified.

GLIM criteria for the diagnosis of malnutrition - A consensus report from the global clinical nutrition community.

Abstract: Rationale This initiative is focused on building a global consensus around core diagnostic criteria for malnutrition in adults in clinical settings.

Global trends in diabetes complications: a review of current evidence

Abstract: In recent decades, large increases in diabetes prevalence have been demonstrated in virtually all regions of the world The increase in the number of people with diabetes or with a longer duration of diabetes is likely to alter the disease profile in many populations around the globe, particularly due to a higher incidence of diabetes-specific complications, such as kidney failure and peripheral arterial disease The epidemiology of other conditions frequently associated with diabetes, including infections and cardiovascular disease, may also change, with direct effects on quality of life, demands on health services and economic costs The current understanding of the international burden of and variation in diabetes-related complications is poor The available data suggest that rates of myocardial infarction, stroke and amputation are decreasing among people with diabetes, in parallel with declining mortality However, these data predominantly come from studies in only a few high-income countries Trends in other complications of diabetes, such as end-stage renal disease, retinopathy and cancer, are less well explored In this review, we synthesise data from population-based studies on trends in diabetes complications, with the objectives of: (1) characterising recent and long-term trends in diabetes-related complications; (2) describing regional variation in the excess risk of complications, where possible; and (3) identifying and prioritising gaps for future surveillance and study

Effect of Linagliptin vs Placebo on Major Cardiovascular Events in Adults With Type 2 Diabetes and High Cardiovascular and Renal Risk: The CARMELINA Randomized Clinical Trial.

Abstract: Importance Type 2 diabetes is associated with increased cardiovascular (CV) risk. Prior trials have demonstrated CV safety of 3 dipeptidyl peptidase 4 (DPP-4) inhibitors but have included limited numbers of patients with high CV risk and chronic kidney disease. Objective To evaluate the effect of linagliptin, a selective DPP-4 inhibitor, on CV outcomes and kidney outcomes in patients with type 2 diabetes at high risk of CV and kidney events. Design, Setting, and Participants Randomized, placebo-controlled, multicenter noninferiority trial conducted from August 2013 to August 2016 at 605 clinic sites in 27 countries among adults with type 2 diabetes, hemoglobin A 1c of 6.5% to 10.0%, high CV risk (history of vascular disease and urine-albumin creatinine ratio [UACR] >200 mg/g), and high renal risk (reduced eGFR and micro- or macroalbuminuria). Participants with end-stage renal disease (ESRD) were excluded. Final follow-up occurred on January 18, 2018. Interventions Patients were randomized to receive linagliptin, 5 mg once daily (n = 3494), or placebo once daily (n = 3485) added to usual care. Other glucose-lowering medications or insulin could be added based on clinical need and local clinical guidelines. Main Outcomes and Measures Primary outcome was time to first occurrence of the composite of CV death, nonfatal myocardial infarction, or nonfatal stroke. Criteria for noninferiority of linagliptin vs placebo was defined by the upper limit of the 2-sided 95% CI for the hazard ratio (HR) of linagliptin relative to placebo being less than 1.3. Secondary outcome was time to first occurrence of adjudicated death due to renal failure, ESRD, or sustained 40% or higher decrease in eGFR from baseline. Results Of 6991 enrollees, 6979 (mean age, 65.9 years; eGFR, 54.6 mL/min/1.73 m 2 ; 80.1% with UACR >30 mg/g) received at least 1 dose of study medication and 98.7% completed the study. During a median follow-up of 2.2 years, the primary outcome occurred in 434 of 3494 (12.4%) and 420 of 3485 (12.1%) in the linagliptin and placebo groups, respectively, (absolute incidence rate difference, 0.13 [95% CI, −0.63 to 0.90] per 100 person-years) (HR, 1.02; 95% CI, 0.89-1.17; P P = .62). Adverse events occurred in 2697 (77.2%) and 2723 (78.1%) patients in the linagliptin and placebo groups; 1036 (29.7%) and 1024 (29.4%) had 1 or more episodes of hypoglycemia; and there were 9 (0.3%) vs 5 (0.1%) events of adjudication-confirmed acute pancreatitis. Conclusions and Relevance Among adults with type 2 diabetes and high CV and renal risk, linagliptin added to usual care compared with placebo added to usual care resulted in a noninferior risk of a composite CV outcome over a median 2.2 years. Trial Registration ClinicalTrials.gov Identifier:NCT01897532

Properties of the Binary Neutron Star Merger GW170817

Abstract: On August 17, 2017, the Advanced LIGO and Advanced Virgo gravitational-wave detectors observed a low-mass compact binary inspiral. The initial sky localization of the source of the gravitational-wave signal, GW170817, allowed electromagnetic observatories to identify NGC 4993 as the host galaxy. In this work, we improve initial estimates of the binary's properties, including component masses, spins, and tidal parameters, using the known source location, improved modeling, and recalibrated Virgo data. We extend the range of gravitational-wave frequencies considered down to 23 Hz, compared to 30 Hz in the initial analysis. We also compare results inferred using several signal models, which are more accurate and incorporate additional physical effects as compared to the initial analysis. We improve the localization of the gravitational-wave source to a 90% credible region of 16 deg2. We find tighter constraints on the masses, spins, and tidal parameters, and continue to find no evidence for nonzero component spins. The component masses are inferred to lie between 1.00 and 1.89 M when allowing for large component spins, and to lie between 1.16 and 1.60 M (with a total mass 2.73-0.01+0.04 M) when the spins are restricted to be within the range observed in Galactic binary neutron stars. Using a precessing model and allowing for large component spins, we constrain the dimensionless spins of the components to be less than 0.50 for the primary and 0.61 for the secondary. Under minimal assumptions about the nature of the compact objects, our constraints for the tidal deformability parameter Λ are (0,630) when we allow for large component spins, and 300-230+420 (using a 90% highest posterior density interval) when restricting the magnitude of the component spins, ruling out several equation-of-state models at the 90% credible level. Finally, with LIGO and GEO600 data, we use a Bayesian analysis to place upper limits on the amplitude and spectral energy density of a possible postmerger signal.

Guidelines for the use of flow cytometry and cell sorting in immunological studies (second edition)

Abstract: These guidelines are a consensus work of a considerable number of members of the immunology and flow cytometry community. They provide the theory and key practical aspects of flow cytometry enabling immunologists to avoid the common errors that often undermine immunological data. Notably, there are comprehensive sections of all major immune cell types with helpful Tables detailing phenotypes in murine and human cells. The latest flow cytometry techniques and applications are also described, featuring examples of the data that can be generated and, importantly, how the data can be analysed. Furthermore, there are sections detailing tips, tricks and pitfalls to avoid, all written and peer-reviewed by leading experts in the field, making this an essential research companion.

Polygenic Risk Scores for Prediction of Breast Cancer and Breast Cancer Subtypes

Abstract: Stratification of women according to their risk of breast cancer based on polygenic risk scores (PRSs) could improve screening and prevention strategies. Our aim was to develop PRSs, optimized for prediction of estrogen receptor (ER)-specific disease, from the largest available genome-wide association dataset and to empirically validate the PRSs in prospective studies. The development dataset comprised 94,075 case subjects and 75,017 control subjects of European ancestry from 69 studies, divided into training and validation sets. Samples were genotyped using genome-wide arrays, and single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) were selected by stepwise regression or lasso penalized regression. The best performing PRSs were validated in an independent test set comprising 11,428 case subjects and 18,323 control subjects from 10 prospective studies and 190,040 women from UK Biobank (3,215 incident breast cancers). For the best PRSs (313 SNPs), the odds ratio for overall disease per 1 standard deviation in ten prospective studies was 1.61 (95%CI: 1.57-1.65) with area under receiver-operator curve (AUC) = 0.630 (95%CI: 0.628-0.651). The lifetime risk of overall breast cancer in the top centile of the PRSs was 32.6%. Compared with women in the middle quintile, those in the highest 1% of risk had 4.37- and 2.78-fold risks, and those in the lowest 1% of risk had 0.16- and 0.27-fold risks, of developing ER-positive and ER-negative disease, respectively. Goodness-of-fit tests indicated that this PRS was well calibrated and predicts disease risk accurately in the tails of the distribution. This PRS is a powerful and reliable predictor of breast cancer risk that may improve breast cancer prevention programs.

Graph WaveNet for Deep Spatial-Temporal Graph Modeling

Abstract: Spatial-temporal graph modeling is an important task to analyze the spatial relations and temporal trends of components in a system. Existing approaches mostly capture the spatial dependency on a fixed graph structure, assuming that the underlying relation between entities is pre-determined. However, the explicit graph structure (relation) does not necessarily reflect the true dependency and genuine relation may be missing due to the incomplete connections in the data. Furthermore, existing methods are ineffective to capture the temporal trends as the RNNs or CNNs employed in these methods cannot capture long-range temporal sequences. To overcome these limitations, we propose in this paper a novel graph neural network architecture, Graph WaveNet, for spatial-temporal graph modeling. By developing a novel adaptive dependency matrix and learn it through node embedding, our model can precisely capture the hidden spatial dependency in the data. With a stacked dilated 1D convolution component whose receptive field grows exponentially as the number of layers increases, Graph WaveNet is able to handle very long sequences. These two components are integrated seamlessly in a unified framework and the whole framework is learned in an end-to-end manner. Experimental results on two public traffic network datasets, METR-LA and PEMS-BAY, demonstrate the superior performance of our algorithm.

Graph WaveNet for Deep Spatial-Temporal Graph Modeling

Abstract: Spatial-temporal graph modeling is an important task to analyze the spatial relations and temporal trends of components in a system. Existing approaches mostly capture the spatial dependency on a fixed graph structure, assuming that the underlying relation between entities is pre-determined. However, the explicit graph structure (relation) does not necessarily reflect the true dependency and genuine relation may be missing due to the incomplete connections in the data. Furthermore, existing methods are ineffective to capture the temporal trends as the RNNs or CNNs employed in these methods cannot capture long-range temporal sequences. To overcome these limitations, we propose in this paper a novel graph neural network architecture, Graph WaveNet, for spatial-temporal graph modeling. By developing a novel adaptive dependency matrix and learn it through node embedding, our model can precisely capture the hidden spatial dependency in the data. With a stacked dilated 1D convolution component whose receptive field grows exponentially as the number of layers increases, Graph WaveNet is able to handle very long sequences. These two components are integrated seamlessly in a unified framework and the whole framework is learned in an end-to-end manner. Experimental results on two public traffic network datasets, METR-LA and PEMS-BAY, demonstrate the superior performance of our algorithm.

Developments in the MPI-M Earth System Model version 1.2 (MPI-ESM1.2) and Its Response to Increasing CO2.

Abstract: A new release of the Max Planck Institute for Meteorology Earth System Model version 1.2 (MPI‐ESM1.2) is presented. The development focused on correcting errors in and improving the physical processes representation, as well as improving the computational performance, versatility, and overall user friendliness. In addition to new radiation and aerosol parameterizations of the atmosphere, several relatively large, but partly compensating, coding errors in the model's cloud, convection, and turbulence parameterizations were corrected. The representation of land processes was refined by introducing a multilayer soil hydrology scheme, extending the land biogeochemistry to include the nitrogen cycle, replacing the soil and litter decomposition model and improving the representation of wildfires. The ocean biogeochemistry now represents cyanobacteria prognostically in order to capture the response of nitrogen fixation to changing climate conditions and further includes improved detritus settling and numerous other refinements. As something new, in addition to limiting drift and minimizing certain biases, the instrumental record warming was explicitly taken into account during the tuning process. To this end, a very high climate sensitivity of around 7 K caused by low‐level clouds in the tropics as found in an intermediate model version was addressed, as it was not deemed possible to match observed warming otherwise. As a result, the model has a climate sensitivity to a doubling of CO2 over preindustrial conditions of 2.77 K, maintaining the previously identified highly nonlinear global mean response to increasing CO2 forcing, which nonetheless can be represented by a simple two‐layer model.

THE CONCISE GUIDE TO PHARMACOLOGY 2019/20: G protein-coupled receptors

Abstract: The Concise Guide to PHARMACOLOGY 2019/20 is the fourth in this series of biennial publications. The Concise Guide provides concise overviews of the key properties of nearly 1800 human drug targets with an emphasis on selective pharmacology (where available), plus links to the open access knowledgebase source of drug targets and their ligands (www.guidetopharmacology.org), which provides more detailed views of target and ligand properties. Although the Concise Guide represents approximately 400 pages, the material presented is substantially reduced compared to information and links presented on the website. It provides a permanent, citable, point-in-time record that will survive database updates. The full contents of this section can be found at http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/bph.14748. G protein-coupled receptors are one of the six major pharmacological targets into which the Guide is divided, with the others being: ion channels, nuclear hormone receptors, catalytic receptors, enzymes and transporters. These are presented with nomenclature guidance and summary information on the best available pharmacological tools, alongside key references and suggestions for further reading. The landscape format of the Concise Guide is designed to facilitate comparison of related targets from material contemporary to mid-2019, and supersedes data presented in the 2017/18, 2015/16 and 2013/14 Concise Guides and previous Guides to Receptors and Channels. It is produced in close conjunction with the International Union of Basic and Clinical Pharmacology Committee on Receptor Nomenclature and Drug Classification (NC-IUPHAR), therefore, providing official IUPHAR classification and nomenclature for human drug targets, where appropriate.

FCC-ee: The Lepton Collider: Future Circular Collider Conceptual Design Report Volume 2

Abstract: In response to the 2013 Update of the European Strategy for Particle Physics, the Future Circular Collider (FCC) study was launched, as an international collaboration hosted by CERN. This study covers a highest-luminosity high-energy lepton collider (FCC-ee) and an energy-frontier hadron collider (FCC-hh), which could, successively, be installed in the same 100 km tunnel. The scientific capabilities of the integrated FCC programme would serve the worldwide community throughout the 21st century. The FCC study also investigates an LHC energy upgrade, using FCC-hh technology. This document constitutes the second volume of the FCC Conceptual Design Report, devoted to the electron-positron collider FCC-ee. After summarizing the physics discovery opportunities, it presents the accelerator design, performance reach, a staged operation scenario, the underlying technologies, civil engineering, technical infrastructure, and an implementation plan. FCC-ee can be built with today’s technology. Most of the FCC-ee infrastructure could be reused for FCC-hh. Combining concepts from past and present lepton colliders and adding a few novel elements, the FCC-ee design promises outstandingly high luminosity. This will make the FCC-ee a unique precision instrument to study the heaviest known particles (Z, W and H bosons and the top quark), offering great direct and indirect sensitivity to new physics.

Global, regional, and national burden of suicide mortality 1990 to 2016: systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2016

Abstract: Objectives To use the estimates from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2016 to describe patterns of suicide mortality globally, regionally, and for 195 countries and territories by age, sex, and Socio-demographic index, and to describe temporal trends between 1990 and 2016. Design Systematic analysis. Main outcome measures Crude and age standardised rates from suicide mortality and years of life lost were compared across regions and countries, and by age, sex, and Socio-demographic index (a composite measure of fertility, income, and education). Results The total number of deaths from suicide increased by 6.7% (95% uncertainty interval 0.4% to 15.6%) globally over the 27 year study period to 817 000 (762 000 to 884 000) deaths in 2016. However, the age standardised mortality rate for suicide decreased by 32.7% (27.2% to 36.6%) worldwide between 1990 and 2016, similar to the decline in the global age standardised mortality rate of 30.6%. Suicide was the leading cause of age standardised years of life lost in the Global Burden of Disease region of high income Asia Pacific and was among the top 10 leading causes in eastern Europe, central Europe, western Europe, central Asia, Australasia, southern Latin America, and high income North America. Rates for men were higher than for women across regions, countries, and age groups, except for the 15 to 19 age group. There was variation in the female to male ratio, with higher ratios at lower levels of Socio-demographic index. Women experienced greater decreases in mortality rates (49.0%, 95% uncertainty interval 42.6% to 54.6%) than men (23.8%, 15.6% to 32.7%). Conclusions Age standardised mortality rates for suicide have greatly reduced since 1990, but suicide remains an important contributor to mortality worldwide. Suicide mortality was variable across locations, between sexes, and between age groups. Suicide prevention strategies can be targeted towards vulnerable populations if they are informed by variations in mortality rates.

Binary Black Hole Population Properties Inferred from the First and Second Observing Runs of Advanced LIGO and Advanced Virgo

Abstract: We present results on the mass, spin, and redshift distributions with phenomenological population models using the 10 binary black hole (BBH) mergers detected in the first and second observing runs completed by Advanced LIGO and Advanced Virgo. We constrain properties of the BBH mass spectrum using models with a range of parameterizations of the BBH mass and spin distributions. We find that the mass distribution of the more massive BH in such binaries is well approximated by models with no more than 1% of BHs more massive than 45 M and a power-law index of (90% credibility). We also show that BBHs are unlikely to be composed of BHs with large spins aligned to the orbital angular momentum. Modeling the evolution of the BBH merger rate with redshift, we show that it is flat or increasing with redshift with 93% probability. Marginalizing over uncertainties in the BBH population, we find robust estimates of the BBH merger rate density of R= (90% credibility). As the BBH catalog grows in future observing runs, we expect that uncertainties in the population model parameters will shrink, potentially providing insights into the formation of BHs via supernovae, binary interactions of massive stars, stellar cluster dynamics, and the formation history of BHs across cosmic time.

Venetoclax Combined With Low-Dose Cytarabine for Previously Untreated Patients With Acute Myeloid Leukemia: Results From a Phase Ib/II Study.

Abstract: PURPOSEEffective treatment options are limited for patients with acute myeloid leukemia (AML) who cannot tolerate intensive chemotherapy. An international phase Ib/II study evaluated the safety and...

International Consensus Guidelines for the Optimal Use of the Polymyxins: Endorsed by the American College of Clinical Pharmacy (ACCP), European Society of Clinical Microbiology and Infectious Diseases (ESCMID), Infectious Diseases Society of America (IDSA), International Society for Anti-infective Pharmacology (ISAP), Society of Critical Care Medicine (SCCM), and Society of Infectious Diseases Pharmacists (SIDP).

Abstract: The polymyxin antibiotics colistin (polymyxin E) and polymyxin B became available in the 1950s and thus did not undergo contemporary drug development procedures. Their clinical use has recently resurged, assuming an important role as salvage therapy for otherwise untreatable gram-negative infections. Since their reintroduction into the clinic, significant confusion remains due to the existence of several different conventions used to describe doses of the polymyxins, differences in their formulations, outdated product information, and uncertainties about susceptibility testing that has led to lack of clarity on how to optimally utilize and dose colistin and polymyxin B. We report consensus therapeutic guidelines for agent selection and dosing of the polymyxin antibiotics for optimal use in adult patients, as endorsed by the American College of Clinical Pharmacy (ACCP), Infectious Diseases Society of America (IDSA), International Society of Anti-Infective Pharmacology (ISAP), Society for Critical Care Medicine (SCCM), and Society of Infectious Diseases Pharmacists (SIDP). The European Society for Clinical Microbiology and Infectious Diseases (ESCMID) endorses this document as a consensus statement. The overall conclusions in the document are endorsed by the European Committee on Antimicrobial Susceptibility Testing (EUCAST). We established a diverse international expert panel to make therapeutic recommendations regarding the pharmacokinetic and pharmacodynamic properties of the drugs and pharmacokinetic targets, polymyxin agent selection, dosing, dosage adjustment and monitoring of colistin and polymyxin B, use of polymyxin-based combination therapy, intrathecal therapy, inhalation therapy, toxicity, and prevention of renal failure. The treatment guidelines provide the first ever consensus recommendations for colistin and polymyxin B therapy that are intended to guide optimal clinical use.

Long-Term Outcomes After Bariatric Surgery: a Systematic Review and Meta-analysis of Weight Loss at 10 or More Years for All Bariatric Procedures and a Single-Centre Review of 20-Year Outcomes After Adjustable Gastric Banding

Abstract: Durability is a key requirement for the broad acceptance of bariatric surgery. We report on durability at and beyond 10 years with a systematic review and meta-analysis of all reports providing data at 10 or more years and a single-centre study of laparoscopic adjustable gastric banding (LAGB) with 20 years of follow-up. Systematic review with meta-analysis was performed on all eligble reports containing 10 or more years of follow-up data on weight loss after bariatric surgery. In addition, a prospective cohort study of LAGB patients measuring weight loss and reoperation at up to 20 years is presented. Systematic review identified 57 datasets of which 33 were eligible for meta-analysis. Weighted means of the percentage of excess weight loss (%EWL) were calculated for all papers included in the systematic review. Eighteen reports of gastric bypass showed a weighted mean of 56.7%EWL, 17 reports of LAGB showed 45.9%EWL, 9 reports of biliopancreatic bypass +/− duodenal switch showed 74.1%EWL and 2 reports of sleeve gastrectomy showed 58.3%EWL. Meta-analyses of eligible studies demonstrated comparable results. Reoperations were common in all groups. At a single centre, 8378 LAGB patients were followed for up to 20 years with an overall follow-up rate of 54%. No surgical deaths occurred. Weight loss at 20 years (N = 35) was 30.1 kg, 48.9%EWL and 22.2% total weight loss (%TWL). Reoperation rate was initially high but reduced markedly with improved band and surgical and aftercare techniques. All current procedures are associated with substantial and durable weight loss. More long-term data are needed for one-anastomosis gastric bypass and sleeve gastrectomy. Reoperation is likely to remain common across all procedures.

Control of Confounding and Reporting of Results in Causal Inference Studies. Guidance for Authors from Editors of Respiratory, Sleep, and Critical Care Journals

Abstract: Control of Confounding and Reporting of Results in Causal Inference Studies Guidance for Authors fromEditors of Respiratory, Sleep, andCritical Care Journals David J. Lederer*, Scott C. Bell*, Richard D. Branson*, James D. Chalmers*, Rachel Marshall*, David M. Maslove*, David E. Ost*, Naresh M. Punjabi*, Michael Schatz*, Alan R. Smyth*, Paul W. Stewart*, Samy Suissa*, Alex A. Adjei, Cezmi A. Akdis, Élie Azoulay, Jan Bakker, Zuhair K. Ballas, Philip G. Bardin, Esther Barreiro, Rinaldo Bellomo, Jonathan A. Bernstein, Vito Brusasco, Timothy G. Buchman, Sudhansu Chokroverty, Nancy A. Collop, James D. Crapo, Dominic A. Fitzgerald, Lauren Hale, Nicholas Hart, Felix J. Herth, Theodore J. Iwashyna, Gisli Jenkins, Martin Kolb, Guy B. Marks, Peter Mazzone, J. Randall Moorman, ThomasM.Murphy, Terry L. Noah, Paul Reynolds, Dieter Riemann, Richard E. Russell, Aziz Sheikh, Giovanni Sotgiu, Erik R. Swenson, Rhonda Szczesniak, Ronald Szymusiak, Jean-Louis Teboul, and Jean-Louis Vincent Department of Medicine and Department of Epidemiology, Columbia University Irving Medical Center, New York, New York; Editor-inChief, Annals of the American Thoracic Society; Department of Thoracic Medicine, The Prince Charles Hospital, Brisbane, Queensland, Australia; Editor-in-Chief, Journal of Cystic Fibrosis; Department of Surgery, University of Cincinnati, Cincinnati, Ohio; Editor-in-Chief, Respiratory Care; University of Dundee, Dundee, Scotland; Deputy Chief Editor, European Respiratory Journal; London, England; Deputy Editor, The Lancet Respiratory Medicine; Department of Medicine, Queen’s University, Kingston, Ontario, Canada; Associate Editor for Data Science, Critical Care Medicine; Department of Pulmonary Medicine, University of Texas MD Anderson Cancer Center, Houston, Texas; Editor-in-Chief, Journal of Bronchology and Interventional Pulmonology; Division of Pulmonary and Critical Care Medicine, Johns Hopkins University, Baltimore, Maryland; Deputy Editor-in-Chief, SLEEP; Department of Allergy, Kaiser Permanente Medical Center, San Diego, California; Editor-in-Chief, The Journal of Allergy & Clinical Immunology: In Practice; Division of Child Health, Obstetrics, and Gynecology, University of Nottingham, Nottingham, England; Joint Editor-in-Chief, Thorax; Department of Biostatistics, University of North Carolina, Chapel Hill, North Carolina; Associate Editor, Pediatric Pulmonology; Department of Epidemiology, Biostatistics, and Occupational Health, McGill University, Montreal, Quebec, Canada; Advisor, COPD: Journal of Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease; Department of Oncology, Mayo Clinic, Rochester, Minnesota; Editor-in-Chief, Journal of Thoracic Oncology; Swiss Institute of Allergy and Asthma Research, University of Zurich, Davos, Switzerland; Editor-in-Chief, Allergy; St. Louis Hospital, University of Paris, Paris, France; Editor-in-Chief, Intensive Care Medicine; Department of Medicine, Columbia University Irving Medical Center, and Division of Pulmonary, Critical Care, and Sleep, NYU Langone Health, New York, New York; Department of Intensive Care Adults, Erasmus MC University Medical Center, Rotterdam, the Netherlands; Department of Intensive Care, Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile, Santiago, Chile; Editor-in-Chief, Journal of Critical Care; Department of Internal Medicine, University of Iowa and the Iowa City Veterans Affairs Medical Center, Iowa City, Iowa; Editor-in-Chief, The Journal of Allergy and Clinical Immunology; Monash Lung and Sleep, Monash Hospital and University, Melbourne, Victoria, Australia; Co-Editor-in-Chief, Respirology; Pulmonology Department, Muscle and Lung Cancer Research Group, Research Institute of Hospital del Mar and Centro de Investigación Biomédica en Red Enfermedades Respiratorias Instituto de Salud Carlos III, Barcelona, Spain; Editor-in-Chief, Archivos de Bronconeumologia; Department of Intensive Care Medicine, Austin Hospital and University of Melbourne, Melbourne, Victoria, Australia; Editor-in-Chief, Critical Care & Resuscitation; Department of Internal Medicine, University of Cincinnati College of Medicine, Cincinnati, Ohio; Editor-in-Chief, Journal of Asthma; Department of Internal Medicine, University of Genoa, Genoa, Italy; Editor-in-Chief, COPD: Journal of Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease; Department of Surgery, Department of Anesthesiology, and Department of Biomedical Informatics, Emory University School of Medicine, Atlanta, Georgia; Editor-in-Chief,Critical CareMedicine; JFKNewJersey Neuroscience Institute, HackensackMeridian Health–JFKMedical Center, Edison, New Jersey; Editor-in-Chief, Sleep Medicine; Department of Medicine and Department of Neurology, Emory University School of Medicine, Atlanta, Georgia; Editor-in-Chief, Journal of Clinical Sleep Medicine; Department of Medicine, National Jewish Hospital, Denver, Colorado; Editor-in-Chief, Journal of the COPD Foundation; The Children’s Hospital at Westmead, Sydney Medical School, University of

FCC-hh: The Hadron Collider

Abstract: Particle physics has arrived at an important moment of its history. The discovery of the Higgs boson, with a mass of 125 GeV, completes the matrix of particles and interactions that has constituted the “Standard Model” for several decades. This model is a consistent and predictive theory, which has so far proven successful at describing all phenomena accessible to collider experiments. However, several experimental facts do require the extension of the Standard Model and explanations are needed for observations such as the abundance of matter over antimatter, the striking evidence for dark matter and the non-zero neutrino masses. Theoretical issues such as the hierarchy problem, and, more in general, the dynamical origin of the Higgs mechanism, do likewise point to the existence of physics beyond the Standard Model. This report contains the description of a novel research infrastructure based on a highest-energy hadron collider with a centre-of-mass collision energy of 100 TeV and an integrated luminosity of at least a factor of 5 larger than the HL-LHC. It will extend the current energy frontier by almost an order of magnitude. The mass reach for direct discovery will reach several tens of TeV, and allow, for example, to produce new particles whose existence could be indirectly exposed by precision measurements during the earlier preceding e+e– collider phase. This collider will also precisely measure the Higgs self-coupling and thoroughly explore the dynamics of electroweak symmetry breaking at the TeV scale, to elucidate the nature of the electroweak phase transition. WIMPs as thermal dark matter candidates will be discovered, or ruled out. As a single project, this particle collider infrastructure will serve the world-wide physics community for about 25 years and, in combination with a lepton collider (see FCC conceptual design report volume 2), will provide a research tool until the end of the 21st century. Collision energies beyond 100 TeV can be considered when using high-temperature superconductors. The European Strategy for Particle Physics (ESPP) update 2013 stated “To stay at the forefront of particle physics, Europe needs to be in a position to propose an ambitious post-LHC accelerator project at CERN by the time of the next Strategy update”. The FCC study has implemented the ESPP recommendation by developing a long-term vision for an “accelerator project in a global context”. This document describes the detailed design and preparation of a construction project for a post-LHC circular energy frontier collider “in collaboration with national institutes, laboratories and universities worldwide”, and enhanced by a strong participation of industrial partners. Now, a coordinated preparation effort can be based on a core of an ever-growing consortium of already more than 135 institutes worldwide. The technology for constructing a high-energy circular hadron collider can be brought to the technology readiness level required for constructing within the coming ten years through a focused R&D programme. The FCC-hh concept comprises in the baseline scenario a power-saving, low-temperature superconducting magnet system based on an evolution of the Nb3Sn technology pioneered at the HL-LHC, an energy-efficient cryogenic refrigeration infrastructure based on a neon-helium (Nelium) light gas mixture, a high-reliability and low loss cryogen distribution infrastructure based on Invar, high-power distributed beam transfer using superconducting elements and local magnet energy recovery and re-use technologies that are already gradually introduced at other CERN accelerators. On a longer timescale, high-temperature superconductors can be developed together with industrial partners to achieve an even more energy efficient particle collider or to reach even higher collision energies.The re-use of the LHC and its injector chain, which also serve for a concurrently running physics programme, is an essential lever to come to an overall sustainable research infrastructure at the energy frontier. Strategic R&D for FCC-hh aims at minimising construction cost and energy consumption, while maximising the socio-economic impact. It will mitigate technology-related risks and ensure that industry can benefit from an acceptable utility. Concerning the implementation, a preparatory phase of about eight years is both necessary and adequate to establish the project governance and organisation structures, to build the international machine and experiment consortia, to develop a territorial implantation plan in agreement with the host-states’ requirements, to optimise the disposal of land and underground volumes, and to prepare the civil engineering project. Such a large-scale, international fundamental research infrastructure, tightly involving industrial partners and providing training at all education levels, will be a strong motor of economic and societal development in all participating nations. The FCC study has implemented a set of actions towards a coherent vision for the world-wide high-energy and particle physics community, providing a collaborative framework for topically complementary and geographically well-balanced contributions. This conceptual design report lays the foundation for a subsequent infrastructure preparatory and technical design phase.

Pantropical Climate Interactions

Abstract: The El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), which originates in the Pacific, is the strongest and most well-known mode of tropical climate variability. Its reach is global, and it can force climate variations of the tropical Atlantic and Indian Oceans by perturbing the global atmospheric circulation. Less appreciated is how the tropical Atlantic and Indian Oceans affect the Pacific. Especially noteworthy is the multidecadal Atlantic warming that began in the late 1990s, because recent research suggests that it has influenced Indo-Pacific climate, the character of the ENSO cycle, and the hiatus in global surface warming. Discovery of these pantropical interactions provides a pathway forward for improving predictions of climate variability in the current climate and for refining projections of future climate under different anthropogenic forcing scenarios.