Showing papers by "National Bureau of Economic Research published in 1990"

The Federal Funds Rate and the Channels of Monetary Transnission

Abstract: First, we show that the interest rate on Federal funds is extremely informative about future movements of real macroeconomic variables, more so than monetary aggregates or other interest rates. Next, we argue that the reason for this forecasting is that the funds rate sensitively records shocks to the supply of (not the demand for) bank reserves, i.e. the funds rate is a good indicator of monetary policy actions. Finally, using innovations to the fuels rate as a measure of changes in monetary policy, we present evidence consistent with the view that monetary policy works at least in part through "credit" (that is, bank loans) as well as through "money" (that is, bank deposits) - even though bank loans fail to Granger-cause real variables.

Increasing Returns and Economic Geography

Abstract: This paper develops a two-region, two-sector general equilibriun model of location. The location of agricultural production is fixed, but ionopolistcally competitive manufacturing finns choose their location to maximize profits. If transportation costs are high, returns to scale weak, and the share of spending on manufactured goods low, the incentive to produce close to the market leads to an equal division of manufacturing between the regions. With lower transport costs, stronger scale economies, or a higher manufacturing share, circular causation sets in: the more manufacturing is located in one region, the larger that region's share of demand, and this provides an incentive to locate still more manufacturing there. Thus when the parameters of the economy lie even slightly on one side of a critical "phase boundary", all manufacturing production ends up concentrated in only one region.

Irreversibility, Uncertainty, and Investment

Abstract: Most investment expenditures have two important characteristics: First, they are largely irreversible; the firm cannot disinvest, so the expenditures are sunk costs. Second, they can be delayed, allowing the firm to wait for new information about prices, costs, and other market conditions before committing resources. An emerging literature has shown that this has important implications for investment decisions, and for the determinants of investment spending. Irreversible investment is especially sensitive to risk, whether with respect to future cash flows, interest rates, or the ultimate cost of the investment. Thus if a policy goal is to stimulate investment, stability and credibility may be more important than tax incentives or interest rates. This paper presents some simple models of irreversible investment, and shows how optimal investment rules and the valuation of projects and firms can be obtained from contingent claims analysis, or alternatively from dynamic programming. It demonstrates some strengths and limitations of the methodology, and shows how the resulting investment rules depend on various parameters that come from the market environment. It also reviews a number of results and insights that have appeared in the literature recently, and discusses possible policy implications.

Some Empirical Aspects of Entrepreneurship

Abstract: About 4.2 million men and women operate businesses on a full-time basis. Comprising more than a tenth of all workers, they run most of our nation’s firms and employ about a tenth of all wage workers. The fraction of the labor force that is self-employed has increased since the mid-1970s after a long period of decline.1 This paper examines the process of selection into self-employment over the life cycle and the determinants of self-employment earnings using data from the National Longitudinal Survey of Young Men (NLS) for 1966–1981 and the Current Population Surveys for 1968–1987.

Gambling with the House Money and Trying to Break Even: The Effects of Prior Outcomes on Risky Choice

Abstract: How is risk-taking affected by prior gains and losses? While normative theory implores decision makers to only consider incremental outcomes, real decision makers are influenced by prior outcomes. We first consider how prior outcomes are combined with the potential payoffs offered by current choices. We propose an editing rule to describe how decision makers frame such problems. We also present data from real money experiments supporting a "house money effect" (increased risk seeking in the presence of a prior gain) and "break-even effects" (in the presence of prior losses, outcomes which offer a chance to break even are especially attractive).

The Allocation of Talent: Implications for Growth

Abstract: A country's most talented people typically organize production by others, so they can spread their ability advantage over a larger scale. When they start firms, they innovate and foster growth, but when they become rent seekers, they only redistribute wealth and reduce growth. Occupational choice depends on returns to ability and to scale in each sector, on market size, and on compensation contracts. In most countries, rent seeking rewards talent more than entrepreneurship does, leading to stagnation. Our evidence shows that countries with a higher proportion of engineering college majors grow faster; whereas countries with a higher proportion of law concentrators grow slower.

Human Capital, Fertility, and Economic Growth

Abstract: Our model of growth departs from both the Malthusian and neoclassical approaches by including investments in human capital We assume, crucially, that rates of return on human capital investments rise, rather than, decline, as the stock of human capital increases, until the stock becomes large This arises because the education sector uses human capital note intensively than either the capital producing sector of the goods producing sector This produces multiple steady scares: an undeveloped steady stare with little human capital, low rates of return on human capital investments and high fertility, and a developed steady stats with higher rates of return a large, and, perhaps, growing stock of human capital and low fertility Multiple steady states mean that history and luck are critical determinants of a country's growth experience

Asset Prices Under Habit Formation and Catching Up with the Joneses

Abstract: This paper introduces a utility function that nests three classes of utility functions: (1) time-separable utility functions; (2) "catching up with the Joneses" utility functions that depend on the consumer's level of consumption relative to the lagged cross-sectional average level of consumption; and (3) utility functions that display habit formation. Closed-form solutions for equilibrium asset prices are derived under the assumption that consumption growth is i.i.d. The equity premia under catching up with the Joneses and under habit formation are, for some parameter values, as large as the historically observed equity premium in the United States.

Equipment Investment and Economic Growth

Abstract: Using data from the United Nations Comparison Project and the Penn World Table, we find that machinery and equipment investment has a strong association with growth: over l9&)?l95 each percent of GDP invested in equipment is associated with an increase in GDP growth of 1/3 a percentage point per year. This is a much stronger association than found between growth and any of the other components of investment. A variety of considerations suggest that this association is causal, that higher equipment investment drives faster growth, and that the social return to equipment investment in well functioning market economies is on the order of 30 percent per year.

Public Finance in Models of Economic Growth

Abstract: The recent literature on endogenous economic growth allows for effects of fiscal policy on long-term growth. If the social rate of return on investment exceeds the private return, then tax policies that encourage investment can raise the growth rate and levels of utility. An excess of the social return over the private return can reflect learning-by-doing with spillover effects, the financing of government consumption purchases with an income tax, and monopoly pricing of new types of capital goods. Tax incentives for investment are not called for if the private rate of return on investment equals the social return. This situation applies in growth models if the accumulation of a broad concept of capital does not entail diminishing returns, or if technological progress appears as an expanding variety of consumer products. In growth models that incorporate public services, the optimal tax policy hinges on the characteristics of the services. If the public services are publicly-provided private goods, which are rival and excludable, or publiclyprovided public goods, which are non-rival and non-excludable, then lump-sum taxation is superior to income taxation. Many types of public goods are subject to congestion, and are therefore rival but to some extent nonexcludable. In these cases, income taxation works approximately as a user fee and can therefore be superior to lump-sum taxation. In particular, the incentives for investment and growth are too high if taxes are lump sum. We argue that the congestion model applies to a wide array of public expenditures, including transportation facilities, public utilities, courts, and possibly national defense and police.

Fads, Martingales, and Market Efficiency

Abstract: Predictable variation in equity returns might reflect either (1) predictable changes in expected returns or (2) market inefficiency and stock price "overreaction." These explanations can be distinguished by examining returns over short time intervals since systematic changes in fundamental valuation over intervals like a week should not occur in efficient markets. The evidence suggests that the "winners" and "losers" one week experience sizeable return reversals the next week in a way that reflects apparent arbitrage profits which persist after corrections for bid-ask spreads and plausible transactions costs. This probably reflects inefficiency in the market for liquidity around large price changes.

Tastes and Technology in a Two-Country Model of the Business Cycle: Explaining International Comovements

Abstract: Trade on international financial markets allows people to insure country-specific risk and smooth consumption intertemporally. Equilibrium models of business cycles with trade on global financial markets typically yield international consumption correlations near 1 and excessive volatility of investment. We incorporate nontraded goods in the model and find that the implications for aggregate consumption, investment, and the trade balance are consistent with business-cycle properties of industrialized countries. However, the model driven by technology shocks alone yields counterfactual implications for comovements between consumption and prices at the sectoral level. Taste shocks produce price - quantity relationships more consistent with the data. (JEL E30, F40)

Does School Quality Matter? Returns to Education and the Characteristics of Public Schools in the United States

Abstract: This paper estimates the effects of school quality - - measured by the pupil-teacher ratio, the average term length, and the relative pay of teachers -- on the rate of return to education for men born between 1920 and 1949. Using earnings data from the 1980 Census, we find that men who were educated in states with higher quality schools have a higher return to additional years of schooling, holding constant their current state of residence, their state of birth, the average return to education in the region where they currently reside, and other factors. A decrease in the pupil-teacher ratio from 30 to 25, for example, is associated with a 0.4 percentage point increase in the rate of return to education. The estimated relationship between the return to education and measures of school quality is similar for blacks and whites. Since improvements in school quality for black students were mainly driven by political and judicial pressures, we argue that the evidence for blacks reinforces a causal interpretation of the link between school quality and earnings. We also find that returns to schooling are higher for students educated in states with a higher fraction of female teachers, and in states with higher average teacher education. Holding constant school quality measures, however, we find no evidence that parental income or education affects state-level rates of return.

Fiscal Paradise: Foreign Tax Havens and American Business

Abstract: The offshore tax haven affiliates of American corporations account for more than a quarter of US foreign investment, an nearly a third of the foreign profits of US firms. This paper analyzes the origins of this tax haven activity and its implications for the US and foreign governments. Based on the behavior of US fins in 1982, it appears that American companies report extraordinarily high profit rates on both their real and their financial investments in tax havens. We calculate from this behavior that the tax rate that maximizes tax revenue for a typical haven is around 6%. The revenue implications for the US are more complicated, since tax havens may ultimately enhance the ability of the US government to tax the foreign earnings of American companies.

Nonexpected Utility in Macroeconomics

Abstract: This paper introduces, within the context of an infinite optimal consumption problem, a parametric class of Kreps-Porteus nonexpected utility preferences--generalized isoelastic utility--which distinguishes attitudes toward risk from behavior toward intertemporal substitution. Some of the theoretical and empirical implications for macroeconomics of these state- and time-nonseparable preferences are examined. Copyright 1990, the President and Fellows of Harvard College and the Massachusetts Institute of Technology.

A Model of Growth Through Creative Destruction

Abstract: This paper develops a model based on Schumpeter's process of creative destruction. It departs from existing models of endogenous growth in emphasizing obsolescence of old technologies induced by the accumulation of knowledge and the resulting process or industrial innovations. This has both positive and normative implications for growth. In positive terms, the prospect of a high level of research in the future can deter research today by threatening the fruits of that research with rapid obsolescence. In normative terms, obsolescence creates a negative externality from innovations, and hence a tendency for laissez-faire economies to generate too many innovations, i.e too much growth. This "business-stealing" effect is partly compensated by the fact that innovations tend to be too small under laissez-faire. The model possesses a unique balanced growth equilibrium in which the log of GNP follows a random walk with drift. The size of the drift is the average growth rate of the economy and it is endogenous to the model ; in particular it depends on the size and likelihood of innovations resulting from research and also on the degree of market power available to an innovator.

Simulated Moments Estimation of Markov Models of Asset Prices

Abstract: This paper provides a simulated moments estimator (SME) of the parameters of dynamic models in which the state vector follows a time-homogeneous Markov process. Conditions are provided for both weak and strong consistency as well as asymptotic normality. Various tradeoff's among the regularity conditions underlying the large sample properties of the SME are discussed in the context of an asset pricing model.

The Beveridge Curve

Abstract: Over the past thirty years, macroeconomists thinking about aggregate labor market dynamics have organized their thought around two relations, the Phillips curve and the Beveridge curve. The Beveridge curve, the relation between unemployment and vacancies, has very much played second fiddle. We think that emphasis is wrong. The Beveridge relation comes conceptually first and contains essential information about the functioning of the labor market and the shocks that affect it. Labor markets in the United States are characterized by huge gross flows. Close to seven million workers move either into or out of employment every month. While that movement could be consistent with workers reallocating themselves across a given set of jobs, recent evidence by Steve Davis and John Haltiwanger suggests that these flows are associated with high rates of job creating and job destruction. Using a measure of job turnover, defined as the sum of employment increases in new or expanding establishments and employment decreases in shrinking or dying establishments, Davis and Haltiwanger find that during 1979-83, a period of shrinking employment, job turnover in manufacturing averaged some 10 percent per quarter. From a macroeconomic viewpoint, the labor market is highly effective in matching workers and jobs, yet those flows are so large that they imply the coexistence of unfilled jobs and unemployed workers. Examination of the joint movement of unemployment and vacancies can tell us a great deal about the effectiveness of the matching process, as well as about the nature of shocks affecting the labor market. In this paper, we first develop a conceptual frame in which to think about gross flows, about the matching process, and about the effects of shocks on unemployment and vacancies. We then turn to the empirical evidence, using data for the postwar United States. We focus first on the matching process, estimating the "matching function," the aggregate relation between unemployment, vacancies, and new hires. We then interpret the Beveridge relation. More precisely, we look at the joint behavior of unemployment, employment, and vacancies, and infer from it the sources and the dynamic effects of the shocks that have affected the labor market over the past 35 years.

On The Behavior of Commodity Prices

Abstract: The classical theory of commodity price determination integrates myopic supply and demand on the one hand with competitive storage (speculation) under rational expectations on the other. Taking into account the fact that inventories mist; be non-negative, this paper derives from the theory testable implications on the behavior of prices, and makes a first attempt to confront these implications with the empirical evidence. The nonlinearities turn out to be a crucial ingredient in matching the stylized facts, particularity the asymmetries and the sharp upward flares that characterize many commodity prices. The model, simple as it is, goes a long way in reproducing the main features of the data for a range of commodities.

The Effect of Age at School Entry on Educational Attainment: An Application of Instrumental Variables with Moments from Two Samples

Abstract: This paper tests the hypothesis that compulsory school attendance laws, which typically require school attendance until a specified birthday, induce a relationship between the years of schooling and age at school entry. Variation in school start age created by children's date of birth provides a natural experiment for estimation of the effect of age at school entry. Because no large data set contains information on both age at school entry and educational attainment, we use an Instrumental Variables (IV) estimator with data derived from the 1960 and 1980 Censuses to test the age-at-entry/compulsory schooling model. In most IV applications, the two covariance matrices that form the estimator are constructed from the same sample. We use a method of moments framework to discuss IV estimators that combine moments from different data sets. In our application, quarter of birth dummies are the instrumental variables used to link the 1960 Census, from which age at school entry can be derived for one cohort of students, to the 1980 Census, which contains educational attainment for the same cohort of students. The results suggest that roughly 10 percent of students were constrained to stay in school by compulsory schooling laws.

Government Failures in Development

Abstract: This paper takes as a given the proposition that, in many developing countries, governmental policies have been highly distortive and harmful to economic growth. These policies have included omissions, such as neglect of infrastructure, and commission such as highly restrictive trade regimes and credit rationing. The issues arising from recognition that governments, like markets, are imperfect are discussed.

Banks and loan sales : marketing non-marketable assets / 1711

Abstract: A defining characteristic of bank loans is that they are not resold once created. Yet, in 1989 about $240 billion of commercial and industrial loans were sold, compared to trivial amounts five years earlier. Selling loans without explicit guarantee or recourse is inconsistent with theories of the existence of financial intermediation. What has changed to make bank loans marketable? In this paper we test for the presence of implicit contractual features of bank loan sales contracts that could explain this inconsistency. In addition, the effect of technological progress on the reduction of information asymmetries between loan buyers and loan sellers is considered. The paper tests for the presence of these features and effects using a sample of over 800 recent loan sales.

Chartists, Fundamentalists, and Trading in the Foreign Exchange Market

Abstract: The overshooting theory of exchange rates seems ideally designed to explain some important aspects of the movement of the dollar in recent years. Over the period 1981-84, for example, when real interest rates in the United States rose above those of its trading partners (presumably due to shifts in the monetary/fiscal policy mix), the dollar appreciated strongly. It was the higher rates of return that made U.S. assets more attractive to international investors and caused the dollar to appreciate. The overshooting theory would say that, as of 1984 for example, the value of the dollar was so far above its long-run equilibrium that expectations of future deprecation were sufficient to offset the higher nominal interest rate in the minds of international investors. Figure 1 shows the correlation of the real interest differential with the real value of the dollar, since exchange rates began to float in 1973.

The Benefits of Crises for Economic Reforms

Abstract: This paper presents a model in which economic crises have positive effects on welfare. Periods of very high inflation create the incentive for the resolution of social conflict and thus facilitate the introduction of economic reforms and the achievement of higher levels of welfare. Policies to reduce the cost of inflation, such as indexation, raise inflation and delay the adoption of reforms, but have no effect on expected social welfare.

Employers Large and Small

Abstract: Examines the role that small firms play in the American labor market. The authors seek to dispel two commonly held misconceptions: that small businesses generate the vast majority of jobs and that small business owners face limited political influence. Empirical data from the U.S. Small Business Administration, the Bureau of Labor Statistics, and the Census Bureau for the mid-1980s as well as privately collected data are reviewed to determine the differences between large and small firms as employers. The share of new jobs created by small firms, the percentage of the workforce employed by small firms, and the longevity of jobs created by small firms reveal that while these firms are responsible for a disproportionate share of new jobs, small firm employment share has largely remained constant. This results from the fact that new firms, and the new jobs they produce, tend to be small; small firms do not often produce new, long-lived jobs. Compensation and working conditions are reviewed. Although small firm wages tend to be lower, the traditional explanations -- more favorable working conditions at small firms, union avoidance, and discouragement of shirking -- are shown to have minimal explanatory power. Rather, lowered non-labor input prices for large firms enables those firms to pay higher wages. Quit rates and applicants-per-vacancy reveal that intangibles such as job satisfaction fail to explain the compensation differential. Unionization rates and union desirability among employees reveals that small firms could be prime targets for organizing drives. Lastly, the political influence of small businesses and the wisdom of governmental aid to small businesses and statutory exemptions or lax enforcement are critically assessed. (CAR)

Labor Hoarding and the Business Cycle

Abstract: Existing Real Business Cycle (RBC) models assume that the key impulses to business cycles are stochastic technology shocks. RBC analysts typically measure these technology shocks by the Solow residual. This paper assesses the sensitivity of inference based on Solow residual accounting to labor hoarding behavior. Our main results can be summarized as follows. First, the quantitative implications of RBC models are very sensitive to the possibility of labor hoarding. Allowing for such behavior reduces our estimate of the variance of technology shocks by 50%. Depending on the sample period investigated, this reduces the ability of technology shocks to account for aggregate output fluctuations by 30% to 60%. Second, our labor hoarding model is capable of quantitatively accounting for the observed correlation between government consumption and the Solow residual. Third, unlike standard RBC models, our labor hoarding model is consistent with three important qualitative features of the joint behavior of average productivity and hours worked: (i) average productivity and hours worked do not display any marked contemporaneous correlation, (ii) average productivity is positively correlated with future hours worked, and (iii) average productivity is negatively correlated with lagged hours worked.

Understanding Real Business Cycles

Abstract: The 1960s were a time of great optimism for macroeconomists. Many economists viewed the business cycle as dead. The Keynesian model was the reigning paradigm and it provided all the necessary instructions for manipulating the levers of monetary and fiscal policy to control aggregate demand. Inflation occurred if aggregate demand was stimulated "excessively" and unemployment arose if demand was "insufficient." The only dilemma faced by policymakers was determining the most desirable location along this inflation-unemployment tradeoff or Phillips curve. The remaining intellectual challenge was to establish coherent microeconomic foundations for the aggregate behavioral relations posited by the Keynesian framework, but this was broadly regarded as a detail that should not deter policymakers in their efforts to "stabilize" the economy. The return of the business cycle in the 1970s after almost a decade of economic expansion, and the accompanying high rates of inflation, came as a rude awakening for many economists. It became increasingly apparent that the basic Keynesian framework was not the appropriate vehicle for understanding what happens during a business cycle nor did it seem capable of providing the empirically correct answers to questions involving changes in the economic environment or changes in monetary or fiscal policy. The view that Keynesian economics was an empirical success even if it lacked sound theoretical foundations could no longer be taken seriously.

The Great Crash and the Onset of the Great Depression

Abstract: This paper argues that the collapse of stock prices in October 1929 generated temporary uncertainty about future income which led consumers to forgo purchases of durable goods. That the Great Crash generated uncertainty is evidenced by the decline in surety expressed by contemporary forecasters. That this uncertainty affected consumer behavior is shown by the fact that spending on consumer durables declined drastically in late 1929, while spending on perishable goods rose slightly. This effect is confirmed by the fact that there is a significant negative relationship between stock market variability and the production of consumer durables in the prewar era.