Showing papers by "National Bureau of Economic Research published in 1996"
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TL;DR: This paper examined legal rules covering protection of corporate shareholders and creditors, the origin of these rules, and the quality of their enforcement in 49 countries and found that common law countries generally have the best, and French civil law countries the worst, legal protections of investors.
Abstract: This paper examines legal rules covering protection of corporate shareholders and creditors, the origin of these rules, and the quality of their enforcement in 49 countries. The results show that common law countries generally have the best, and French civil law countries the worst, legal protections of investors, with German and Scandinavian civil law countries located in the middle. We also find that concentration of ownership of shares in the largest public companies is negatively related to investor protections, consistent with the hypothesis that small, diversified shareholders are unlikely to be important in countries that fail to protect their rights.
14,563 citations
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TL;DR: The authors surveys research on corporate governance, with special attention to the importance of legal protection of investors and of ownership concentration in corporate governance systems around the world, and presents a survey of the literature.
Abstract: This paper surveys research on corporate governance, with special attention to the importance of legal protection of investors and of ownership concentration in corporate governance systems around the world.
13,489 citations
TL;DR: This paper examined whether financial development facilitates economic growth by scrutinizing one rationale for such a relationship; that financial development reduces the costs of external finance to firms, and found that industrial sectors that are relatively more in need of foreign finance develop disproportionately faster in countries with more developed financial markets.
Abstract: Does finance affect economic growth? A number of studies have identified a positive correlation between the level of development of a country's financial sector and the rate of growth of its per capita income. As has been noted elsewhere, the observed correlation does not necessarily imply a causal relationship. This paper examines whether financial development facilitates economic growth by scrutinizing one rationale for such a relationship; that financial development reduces the costs of external finance to firms. Specifically, we ask whether industrial sectors that are relatively more in need of external finance develop disproportionately faster in countries with more developed financial markets. We find this to be true in a large sample of countries over the 1980s. We show this result is unlikely to be driven by omitted variables, outliers, or reverse causality.
6,815 citations
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TL;DR: The authors investigated the relationship between international trade patterns and international business cycle correlations and found that countries with closer trade links tend to have more tightly correlated business cycles and were more likely to satisfy the criteria for entry into a currency union after taking steps toward economic integration than before.
Abstract: A country's suitability for entry into a currency union depends on a number of economic conditions. These include, inter alia, the intensity of trade with other potential members of the currency union, and the extent to which domestic business cycles are correlated with those of the other countries. But international trade patterns and international business cycle correlations are endogenous. This paper develops and investigates the relationship between the two phenomena. Using thirty years of data for twenty industrialized countries, we uncover a strong and striking empirical finding: countries with closer trade links tend to have more tightly correlated business cycles. It follows that countries are more likely to satisfy the criteria for entry into a currency union after taking steps toward economic integration than before.
2,675 citations
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TL;DR: In a cross-section of countries, evidence on government performance, participation in civic and professional societies, importance of large firms, and the performance of social institutions more generally supports this hypothesis.
Abstract: Several authors suggest that trust is an important determinant of cooperation between strangers in a society, and therefore of performance of social institutions. We argue that trust should be particularly important for the performance of large organizations. In a cross-section of countries, evidence on government performance, participation in civic and professional societies, importance of large firms, and the performance of social institutions more generally supports this hypothesis. Moreover, trust is lower in countries with dominant hierarchical religions, which may have deterred networks of cooperation trust hold up remarkably well on a cross-section of countries.
2,157 citations
TL;DR: In this paper, the causal links between exporting and productivity using plant-level data were analyzed. And the authors concluded that relatively efficient erms become exporters; however, in most industries, erms' costs are not affected by previous exporting activities.
Abstract: Do erms become more efficient after becoming exporters? Do exporters generate positive externalities for domestically oriented producers? In this paper we tackle these questions by analyzing the causal links between exporting and productivity using plant-level data. We look for evidence that erms’cost processes change after theybreak into foreign markets. We end that relatively efficient erms become exporters; however, in most industries, erms’ costs are not affected by previous exporting activities. So the well-documented positiveassociation between exporting and efficiency is explained by the self-selection of the moreefficient erms intothe exportmarket. Wealsoend some evidence of positive regional externalities.
2,115 citations
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TL;DR: The authors analyzed the causal links between exporting and productivity using firm-level panel data from three semi-industrialized countries and found that relatively efficient firms become exporters, but firms' unit costs are not affected by previous export market participation, while the well-known efficiency gap between exporters and non-exporters is due to self-selection of the more efficient firms into the export market, rather than learning by exporting.
Abstract: Is there any empirical evidence that firms become more efficient after becoming exporters? Do firms that become exporters generate positive spillovers for domestically-oriented producers? In this paper we analyze the causal links between exporting and productivity using firm-level panel data from three semi-industrialized countries Representing export market" participation and production costs as jointly dependent autoregressive processes, we look for evidence that firms' stochastic cost processes shift when they break into foreign markets We find that relatively efficient firms become exporters, but firms' unit costs are not affected by previous export market participation So the well-known efficiency gap between exporters and non-exporters is due to self-selection of the more efficient firms into the export market, rather than learning by exporting Further, we find some evidence that exporters reduce the costs of breaking into foreign markets for domestically oriented producers, but they do not appear to help these producers become more efficient
1,986 citations
TL;DR: In this paper, the authors interpret the financial accelerator as resulting from endogenous changes over the business cycle in the agency costs of lending, and show that borrowers facing high agency costs should receive a relatively lower share of credit extended (the flight to quality) and hence should account for a proportionally greater part of the decline in economic activity.
Abstract: Adverse shocks to the economy may be amplified by worsening credit-market conditions-- the financial 'accelerator'. Theoretically, we interpret the financial accelerator as resulting from endogenous changes over the business cycle in the agency costs of lending. An implication of the theory is that, at the onset of a recession, borrowers facing high agency costs should receive a relatively lower share of credit extended (the flight to quality) and hence should account for a proportionally greater part of the decline in economic activity. We review the evidence for these predictions and present new evidence drawn from a panel of large and small manufacturing firms.
1,887 citations
TL;DR: In this paper, an efficient method was developed for pricing American options on stochastic volatility/jump-diffusion processes under systematic jump and volatility risk, and the parameters implicit in deutsche mark (DM) options of the model and various submodels were estimated over the period 1984 to 1991 via nonlinear generalized least squares, and tested for consistency with $/DM futures prices and the implicit volatility sample path.
Abstract: An efficient method is developed for pricing American options on stochastic volatility/jumpdiffusion processes under systematic jump and volatility risk. The parameters implicit in deutsche mark (DM) options of the model and various submodels are estimated over the period 1984 to 1991 via nonlinear generalized least squares, and are tested for consistency with $/DM futures prices and the implicit volatility sample path. The stochastic volatility submodel cannot explain the "volatility smile" evidence of implicit excess kurtosis, except under parameters implausible given the time series properties of implicit volatilities. Jump fears can explain the smile, and are consistent with one 8 percent DM appreciation "outlier" observed over the period 1984 to 1991. The central empirical issues in option pricing are what distributional hypotheses are consistent with observed option prices, and whether those distributional hypotheses are consistent with the properties of the un
1,777 citations
TL;DR: This paper presented a model where social interactions create enough covariance across individuals to explain the high cross-city variance of crime rates, which suggests that the amount of social interactions is highest in petty crimes, moderate in more serious crimes, and almost negligible in murder and rape.
Abstract: The high variance of crime rates across time and space is one of the oldest puzzles in the social sciences; this variance appears too high to be explained by changes in the exogenous costs and benefits of crime. We present a model where social interactions create enough covariance across individuals to explain the high cross-city variance of crime rates. This model provides an index of social interactions which suggests that the amount of social interactions is highest in petty crimes, moderate in more serious crimes, and almost negligible in murder and rape.
1,495 citations
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TL;DR: This paper found that outsourcing can account for 31-51% of the increase in the relative demand for skilled labor that occurred in US manufacturing industries during the 1980s, compared to their previous estimate of 15-33% by using data from the revised NBER trade database.
Abstract: There is considerable debate over whether international trade has contributed to the declining economic fortunes of less skilled workers One issue that has become lost in the current discussion is how firms respond to import competition and how these responses, in turn, are transmitted to the labor market In previous work, we have argued that outsourcing, by which we mean the import of intermediate inputs by domestic firms, has contributed to an increase in the relative demand for skilled labor in the United States If firms respond to import competition from low-wage countries by moving non- skill-intensive activities abroad, then trade will shift employment towards skilled workers within industries In this paper, we extend our previous work by combining new import data from the revised NBER trade database with disaggregated data on input purchases from the Census of Manufactures We construct industry-by-industry estimates of outsourcing for the period 1972-1990 and reexamine whether outsourcing has contributed to an increase in relative demand for skilled labor Our main finding is that outsourcing can account for 31-51% of the increase in the relative demand for skilled labor that occurred in US manufacturing industries during the 1980s, compared to our previous estimate of 15-33%
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TL;DR: The authors showed that incomplete pass-through is a consequence of third-degree price discrimination and that the source of the border effect has not been clearly identified, and there is little evidence yet to suggest substantial market power is implied by the observed price discrimination.
Abstract: Import prices typically change by a smaller proportion than the exchange rate between the exporting and importing country. Recent research indicates that common-currency relative prices for similar goods exported to different markets are highly correlated with exchange rates between those markets. This evidence suggests that incomplete pass-through is a consequence of third-degree price discrimination. While distance matters for market segmentation, borders have independent effects. The source of the border effect has not been clearly identified. Furthermore, there is little evidence yet to suggest substantial market power is implied by the observed price discrimination.
TL;DR: In this article, the authors discuss implications of heterogencity for macroeconomic modeling: a one-sector macroeconomic model that ignores heterogeneity may sometimes require firm level parameters, but at other times the model may require the “biased” aggregate parameters.
Abstract: A typical (roughly) two‐digit industry in the United States appears to have constant or slightly decreasing returns to scale. Three puzzles emerge, however. First, estimates often rise at higher levels of aggregation. Second, apparent decreasing returns contradicts evidence of only small economic profits. Third, estimates with value added differ substantially from those with gross output. A representative‐firm paradigm cannot explain these puzzles, but a simple story of aggregation over heterogeneous units can. Theory and evidence on aggregation invalidate the common use of demand‐side instruments. Finally, we discuss implications of heterogencity for macroeconomic modeling: A one‐sector macroeconomic model that ignores heterogeneity may sometimes require firm‐level parameters, but at other times the model may require the “biased” aggregate parameters.
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TL;DR: In this article, a self-reinforcing mechanism for currency market equilibria is presented, in which high unemployment may cause an exchange rate crisis with self-fulfilling features.
Abstract: The discomfort a government suffers from speculation against its currency determines the strategic incentives of speculators and the scope for multiple currency-market equilibria. After describing an illustrative model in which high unemployment may cause an exchange rate crisis with self-fulfilling features, the paper reviews some other self-reinforcing mechanisms. Recent econometric evidence seems to support the practical importance of these mechanisms.
TL;DR: In this article, the authors investigated the relationship between political instability and per capita GDP growth in a sample of 113 countries for the period 1950 through 1982 and found that in countries and time periods with a high propensity of government collapse, growth is significantly lower than otherwise.
Abstract: This paper investigates the relationship between political instability and per capita GDP growth in a sample of 113 countries for the period 1950 through 1982. We define political instability as the propensity of a government collapse, and we estimate a model in which such a measure of political instability and economic growth are jointly determined. The main result of this paper is that in countries and time periods with a high propensity of government collapse, growth is significantly lower than otherwise. We also discuss the effects of different types of government changes on growth.
TL;DR: The authors argued that the primary goal of risk management is not to dampen swings in corporate cash flows or value, but rather to provide protection against the possibility of costly lower-tail outcomes, situations that would cause financial distress or make a company unable to carry out its investment strategy.
Abstract: This paper presents a theory of corporate risk management that attempts to go beyond the “variance-minimization” model that dominates most academic discussions of the subject. It argues that the primary goal of risk management is not to dampen swings in corporate cash flows or value, but rather to provide protection against the possibility of costly lower-tail outcomes–situations that would cause financial distress or make a company unable to carry out its investment strategy. (In the jargon of finance specialists, risk management can be viewed as the purchase of well-out-of-the-money put options designed to limit downside risk.)
By eliminating downside risk and reducing the expected costs of financial trouble, risk management can also help a company to achieve both its optimal capital structure and its optimal ownership structure. For, besides increasing corporate debt capacity, the reduction of downside risk also encourages larger equity stakes for managers by shielding their investments from “uncontrollables.”
The paper also departs from standard finance theory in suggesting that some companies may have a comparative advantage in bearing certain financial market risks–an advantage that derives from information acquired through their normal business activities. Although such specialized information may lead some companies to take speculative positions in commodities or currencies, it is more likely to encourage “selective” hedging, a practice in which the risk manager's “view” of future price movements influences the percentage of the exposure that is hedged.
But, to the extent that such view-taking becomes an accepted part of a company's risk management program, it is important to evaluate managers' bets on a risk-adjusted basis and relative to the market. If risk managers want to behave like money managers, they should be evaluated like money managers.
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TL;DR: In this paper, the types of links between scientists and firms are examined, drawing on a database of biotech firms that have issued IPOs, and the data analyses indicate that firm proximity is often influenced not only by the scientist's role in the firm, but also by his or her status in the scientific community and by their or her age.
Abstract: In recent years, the significance of geography among firms has declined due to the introduction of electronic methods of communication. However, with the increasing presence of the biotechnology industry, with its affiliated university-based scientists, the issue of geography is proposed as a significant issue for consideration. Most notably, researchers cite that the role of the scientist within the firm impacts the geographic proximity between the firm and the scientist. The types of links between scientists and firms are examined, drawing on a database of biotech firms that have issued IPOs. The data analyses indicate that firm proximity is often influenced not only by the scientist's role in the firm, but also by his or her status in the scientific community and by his or her age. Although past studies have cited the relationship between informal knowledge spillovers and proximity, the current research suggests that geographic proximity plays a less significant role when knowledge is transmitted through formal ties between scientists and corporations. Areas of future research are identified, including the impact of factors such as the proximity of other firm locations and research institutions, and how the role of geography differs between regions. (AKP)
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TL;DR: This paper used a new instrumental variable, the sex composition of the first two births in families with at least two children, to estimate the effect of additional children on parents' labor supply.
Abstract: Although theoretical models of labor supply and the family are well developed, there are few credible estimates of key empirical relationships in the work-family nexus. This study uses a new instrumental variable, the sex composition of the first two births in families with at least two children, to estimate the effect of additional children on parents' labor supply. Instrumental variables estimates using the sex mix are substantial but smaller than the corresponding ordinary least squares (OLS) estimates. Moreover, unlike the OLS estimates, the female labor supply effects estimated using sex-mix instruments appear to be absent among more educated women and women with high-wage husbands. We also find that married women who have a third child reduce their labor supply by as much as women in the full sample, while there is no relationship between wives' child-bearing and husbands' labor supply. Finally results to estimates produced using twins to generate instruments. Estimates using twins instruments are very close to the estimates generated by sex-mix instruments, once the estimators are corrected for differences in the ages of children whose birth was caused by the instruments. The estimates imply that the labor supply consequences of child-bearing disappear by the time the child is about 13 years old.
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TL;DR: In this article, a theory of training whereby workers do not pay for general training they receive is proposed, where the current employer has superior information about the worker's ability relative to other firms, which gives the employer an ex post monopsony power over the worker which encourages the firm to provide training.
Abstract: This paper offers and tests a theory of training whereby workers do not pay for general training they receive. The crucial ingredient in our model is that the current employer has superior information about the worker's ability relative to other firms. This informational advantage gives the employer an ex post monopsony power over the worker which encourages the firm to provide training. We show that the model can lead to multiple equilibria. In one equilibrium quits are endogenously high, and as a result employers have limited monopsony power and are willing to supply only little training, while in another equilibrium quits are low and training high. We also derive predictions from our model not shared by other explanations of firm sponsored training. Using microdata from Germany, we show that the predictions of the specific human capital model are rejected, while our model receives support from the data.
TL;DR: The authors investigated the ability of the pecking-order model, the agency model, and the timing model to explain firms' decisions whether to issue debt or equity, the shock price reaction to their decisions and their actions afterward.
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TL;DR: In this paper, the authors examine the financial events following the Mexican peso devaluation to uncover new lessons about the nature of financial crises and explore the question of why, during 1995, some emerging markets were hit by financial crises while others were not.
Abstract: In this paper we examine closely the financial events following the Mexican peso devaluation to uncover new lessons about the nature of financial crises. We explore the question of why, during 1995, some emerging markets were hit by financial crises while others were not. To this end, we ask whether there are some fundamentals that help explain the variation in financial crises across countries or whether the variation just reflects contagion. We present a simple model identifying three factors that determine whether a country is more vulnerable to suffer a financial crisis: a high real exchange rate appreciation, a recent lending boom, and low reserves. We find that for a set of 20 emerging markets, differences in these fundamentals go far in explaining why during 1995 some emerging markets were hit by financial crises while others were not. We also find that alternative hypotheses that have been put forth to explain such crises often do not seem to be supported by the data, such as high current account deficits, excessive capital inflows and loose fiscal policies.
TL;DR: In this paper, a negative relation between leverage and future growth at the firm level and, for diversified firms, at the business segment level was shown for firms with low Tobin's q ratio, but not for high q firms or firms in high- q industries.
TL;DR: In this article, the authors identify a potentially superior mechanism, the regulation of access to critical resources, which can be better than ownership because: i) the power agents get from access is more contingent on them making the right investment; ii) ownership has adverse effects on the incentive to specialize.
Abstract: Transactions take place in the firm rather than in the market because the firm offers agents" who make specific investments power. Past literature emphasizes the allocation of ownership as the" primary mechanism by which the firm does this. Within the contractibility assumptions of this" literature, we identify a potentially superior mechanism, the regulation of access to critical resources. " Access can be better than ownership because: i) the power agents get from access is more contingent" on them making the right investment; ii) ownership has adverse effects on the incentive to specialize. " The theory explains the importance of internal organization and third party ownership. "
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TL;DR: In this article, the authors investigate the relative importance of financial and human capital exploiting the variation provided by intergenerational links, and find that young men's own financial assets exert a statistically significant but quantitatively modest effect on the transition from a wage and salary job to self-employment.
Abstract: The environment for business creation is central to economic policy, as entrepreneurs are believed to be forces of innovation, employment and economic dynamism. We use data from the National Longitudinal Surveys (NLS) to investigate the relative importance of financial and human capital exploiting the variation provided by intergenerational links. Specifically, we estimate the impacts of parental wealth and human capital on the probability that an individual will make the transition from a wage and salary job to self-employment. We find that young men's own financial assets exert a statistically significant, but quantitatively modest effect on the transition to self-employment. In contrast, the capital of parents exerts a large influence. Parents' strongest effect runs not through financial means, but rather through human capital, i.e., the intergenerational correlation in self-employment. This link is even stronger along gender lines.
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TL;DR: In this article, the authors focus on a sample of small firms whose access to capital markets may be limited and find evidence that firms use trade credit relatively more when credit from financial institutions is not available.
Abstract: In addition to borrowing from financial institutions, firms may be financed by their suppliers. Although there are many theories explaining why non-financial firms lend money, there are few comprehensive empirical tests of these theories. This paper attempts to fill the gap. We focus on a sample of small firms whose access to capital markets may be limited. We find evidence that firms use trade credit relatively more when credit from financial institutions is not available. Thus while short term trade credit may be routinely used to minimize transactions costs, medium term borrowing against trade credit is a form of financing of last resort. Suppliers lend to firms no one else lends to because they may have a comparative advantage in getting information about buyers cheaply, they have a better ability to liquidate goods, and they have a greater implicit equity stake in the firm's long term survival. We find some evidence consistent with the use of trade credit as a means of price discrimination. Finally, we find that firms with better access to credit from financial institutions offer more trade credit. This suggests that firms may intermediate between institutional creditors and other firms who have limited access to financial institutions.
TL;DR: In this article, the authors studied the relation between the premiums in takeover bids involving exchange-listed target firms from 1975-91 and the pre-announcement stock price runups.
TL;DR: In this paper, the authors estimate that approximately 50 percent of the increase in Medicaid coverage was associated with a reduction in private insurance coverage, largely because employees took up employer-based insurance less frequently.
Abstract: The cost of expanding public sector health programs depends critically on the extent to which public eligibility will cover just the uninsured, or will crowd out existing private insurance coverage. We estimate the extent of crowd-out arising from the expansions of Medicaid to pregnant women and children over the 1987–1992 period. We estimate that approximately 50 percent of the increase in Medicaid coverage was associated with a reduction in private insurance coverage. This occurred largely because employees took up employer-based insurance less frequently. There is also some evidence that employers contributed less for insurance and that workers dropped coverage of dependents.
TL;DR: In this paper, the authors test parametric models by comparing their implied parametric density to the same density estimated nonparametrically, and do not replace the continuous-time model by discrete approximations, even though the data are recorded at discrete intervals.
Abstract: Different continuous-time models for interest rates coexist in the literature. We test parametric models by comparing their implied parametric density to the same density estimated nonparametrically. We do not replace the continuous-time model by discrete approximations, even though the data are recorded at discrete intervals. The principal source of rejection of existing models is the strong nonlinearity of the drift. Around its mean, where the drift is essentially zero, the spot rate behaves like a random walk. The drift then mean-reverts strongly when far away from the mean. the volatility is higher when away from the mean. Article published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Society for Financial Studies in its journal, The Review of Financial Studies.
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TL;DR: This article showed that there is a robust empirical association between the extent to which an economy is exposed to trade and the size of its government sector, and that government consumption plays a risk-reducing role in economies exposed to a significant amount of external risk.
Abstract: This paper demonstrates that there is a robust empirical association between the extent to which an economy is exposed to trade and the size of its government sector. This association holds for a large cross-section of countries, in low- as well as high-income samples, and is robust to the inclusion of a wide range of controls. The explanation appears to be that government consumption plays a risk-reducing role in economies exposed to a significant amount of external risk. When openness is interacted with explicit measures of external risk, such as terms-of-trade uncertainty and product concentration of exports, it is the interaction terms that enter significantly, and the openness term loses its significance (or turns negative). The paper also demonstrates that government consumption is the majority of countries.
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TL;DR: In this article, a survey of 105 shop owners in Moscow and Warsaw showed that the reliance on private protection, as well as the burden of regulation and corruption, are much greater in Moscow than in Warsaw.
Abstract: Evidence from a survey of 105 shop-owners in Moscow and Warsaw shows that the reliance on private protection, as well as the burden of regulation and corruption, are much greater in Moscow. The evidence suggests that the `invisible hand' model of government better fits the Warsaw local government, and the`grabbing hand' model is more appropriate for Moscow. The evidence implies that the singular focus on the speed of economic reforms to understand the success of transition is misplaced, and that the quality of government may be as essential.