Showing papers by "National Bureau of Economic Research published in 1998"

Why Do Some Countries Produce so Much More Output Per Worker than Others

Abstract: Output per worker varies enormously across countries. Why? On an accounting basis, our analysis shows that differences in physical capital and educational attainment can only partially explain the variation in output per worker--we find a large amount of variation in the level of the Solow residual across countries. At a deeper level, we document that the differences in capital accumulation, productivity, and therefore output per worker are driven by differences in institutions and government policies, which we call social infrastructure. We treat social infrastructure as endogenous, determined historically by location and other factors captured in part by language.

The Financial Accelerator in a Quantitative Business Cycle Framework

Abstract: This paper develops a dynamic general equilibrium model that is intended to help clarify the role of credit market frictions in business fluctuations, from both a qualitative and a quantitative standpoint. The model is a synthesis of the leading approaches in the literature. In particular, the framework exhibits a financial accelerator,' in that endogenous developments in credit markets work to amplify and propagate shocks to the macroeconomy. In addition, we add several features to the model that are designed to enhance the empirical relevance. First, we incorporate money and price stickiness, which allows us to study how credit market frictions may influence the transmission of monetary policy. In addition, we allow for lags in investment which enables the model to generate both hump-shaped output dynamics and a lead-lag relation between asset prices and investment, as is consistent with the data. Finally, we allow for heterogeneity among firms to capture the fact that borrowers have differential access to capital markets. Under reasonable parametrizations of the model, the financial accelerator has a significant influence on business cycle dynamics.

Teachers, Schools, and Academic Achievement

Abstract: Considerable controversy surrounds the impact of schools and teachers on the achievement of students. This paper disentangles the separate factors influencing achievement with special attention given to the role of teacher differences and other aspects of schools. Unique matched panel data from the Harvard/UTD Texas Schools Project permit distinguishing between total effects and the impact of specific, measured components of teachers and schools. While schools are seen to have powerful effects on achievement differences, these effects appear to derive most importantly from variations in teacher quality. A lower bound suggests that variations in teacher quality account for at least 7« percent of the total variation in student achievement, and there are reasons to believe that the true percentage is considerably larger. The subsequent analysis estimates educational production functions based on models of achievement growth with individual fixed effects. It identifies a few systematic factors a negative impact of initial years of teaching and a positive effect of smaller class sizes for low income children in earlier grades but these effects are very small relative to the effects of overall teacher quality differences.

Presentation Slides for 'Investor Psychology and Security Market Under and Overreactions'

Abstract: We propose a theory of securities market under- and overreactions based on two well-known psychological biases: investor overconfidence about the precision of private information; and biased self-attribution, which causes asymmetric shifts in investors' confidence as a function of their investment outcomes. We show that overconfidence implies negative long-lag autocorrelations, excess volatility, and, when managerial actions are correlated with stock mispricing, public-event-based return predictability. Biased self-attribution adds positive short-lag autocorrelations (momentum), short-run earnings drift, but negative correlation between future returns and long-term past stock market and accounting performance. The theory also offers several untested implications and implications for corporate financial policy. Prepublication version available at https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=2017

Monetary Policy Shocks: What Have We Learned and to What End?

Abstract: This paper reviews recent research that grapples with the question: What happens after an exogenous shock to monetary policy? We argue that this question is interesting because it lies at the center of a particular approach to assessing the empirical plausibility of structural economic models that can be used to think about systematic changes in monetary policy institutions and rules. The literature has not yet converged on a particular set of assumptions for identifying the effects of an exogenous shock to monetary policy. Nevertheless, there is considerable agreement about the qualitative effects of a monetary policy shock in the sense that inference is robust across a large subset of the identification schemes that have been considered in the literature. We document the nature of this agreement as it pertains to key economic aggregates.

Earnings Management to Exceed Thresholds

Abstract: Earnings provide important information for investment decisions. Thus executives--who are monitored by investors, directors, customers, and suppliers--acting in self-interest and at times for shareholders, have strong incentives to manage earnings. We introduce behavioral thresholds for earnings management. A model shows how thresholds induce specific types of earnings management. Empirical explorations identify earnings management to exceed each of three thresholds: report of positive profits, sustain recent performance, and meet analysts' expectations. The positive profits threshold proves predominant. The future performance of firms that have possibly boosted earnings just across a threshold appears poorer than that of less suspect control groups.

Who Gives Foreign Aid to Whom and Why

Abstract: This paper studies the pattern of allocation of foreign aid from various donors to receiving countries. We find considerable evidence that the direction of foreign aid is dictated by political and strategic considerations, much more than by the economic needs and policy performance of the recipients. Colonial past and political alliances are the major determinants of foreign aid. At the margin, however, countries that democratize receive more aid, ceteris paribus. While foreign aid flows respond more to political variables, foreign direct investments are more sensitive to economic incentives, particularly property rights in the receiving countries. We also uncover significant differences in the behavior of different donors.

Geography and Economic Development

Abstract: This paper addresses the complex relationship between geography and macroeconomic growth. We investigate the ways in which geography may matter directly for growth, controlling for economic policies and institutions, as well as the effects of geography on policy choices and institutions. We find that location and climate have large effects on income levels and income growth, through their effects on transport costs, disease burdens, and agricultural productivity, among other channels. Furthermore, geography seems to be a factor in the choice of economic policy itself. When we identify geographical regions that are not conducive to modern economic growth, we find that many of these regions have high population density and rapid population increase. This is especially true of populations that are located far from the coast, and thus that face large transport costs for international trade, as well as populations in tropical regions of high disease burden. Furthermore, much of the population increase in the next thirty years is likely to take place in these geographically disadvantaged regions.

Bad News Travels Slowly: Size, Analyst Coverage and the Profitability of Momentum Strategies

Abstract: A number of theories have been proposed to explain the medium-term momentum in stock returns identified by Jegadeesh and Titman (1993). We test one such theory--based on the gradual-information-diffusion model of Hong and Stein (1997)--and establish three key results. First, once one moves past the very smallest stocks (where thin market-making capacity appears to be an issue) the profitability of momentum strategies declines sharply with firm size. Second, holding size fixed, momentum strategies work particularly well among stocks which have low analyst coverage. Finally, there is a strong asymmetry: the effect of analyst coverage is much more pronounced for stocks that are past losers than for stocks that are past winners. These findings are consistent with the hypothesis that firm-specific information only gradually across the investing public.

Population, Technology, and Growth: From the Malthusian Regime to the Demographic Transition and Beyond

Abstract: This paper develops a unified model of growth, population, and technological progress that is consistent with long-term historical evidence. The economy endogenously evolves through three phases. In the Malthusian regime, population growth is positively related to the level of income per capita. Technological progress is slow and is matched by proportional increases in population, so that output per capita is stable around a constant level. In the post-Malthusian regime, the growth rates of technology and total output increase. Population growth absorbs much of the growth of output, but income per capita does rise slowly. The economy endogenously undergoes a demographic transition in which the traditionally positive relationship between income per capita and population growth is reversed. In the Modern Growth regime, population growth is moderate or even negative, and income per capita rises rapidly. Two forces drive the transitions between regimes: First, technological progress is driven both by increases in the size of the population and by increases in the size of the population and by increases in the average level of education. Second, technological progress creates a state of disequilibrium, which raises the return to human capital and induces patients to substitute child quality for quantity.

Corporate Ownership Around the World

Abstract: We present data on ownership structures of large corporations in 27 wealthy economies, making an effort to identify the ultimate controlling shareholders of these firms. We find that, except in economies with very good shareholder protection, relatively few of these firms are widely held, in contrast to the Berle and Means image of ownership of the modern corporation. Rather, these firms are typically controlled by families or the State. Equity control by financial institutions or other widely held corporations is far less common. The controlling shareholders typically have power over firms significantly in excess of their cash flow rights, primarily through the use of pyramids and participation in management. The results suggest that the central agency problem in large corporations around the world is that of restricting expropriation of minority shareholders by the controlling shareholders, rather than that of restricting empire building by professional managers unaccountable to shareholders.

Corruption Around the World: Causes, Consequences, Scope, and Cures

Abstract: Corruption is attracting a lot of attention around the world. The paper surveys and discusses issues related to the causes, consequences, and scope of corruption and possible corrective actions. It emphasizes the costs of corruption in terms of economic growth. It also emphasizes that the fight against corruption may not be cheap and cannot be independent from the reform of the state. If certain reforms are not made, corruption is likely to continue to be a problem regardless of actions directly aimed at curtailing it.

Computing Inequality: Have Computers Changed the Labor Market?

Abstract: This paper examines the effect of skill-biased technological change as measured by computerization on the recent widening of U. S. educational wage differentials. An analysis of aggregate changes in the relative supplies and wages of workers by education from 1940 to 1996 indicates strong and persistent growth in relative demand favoring college graduates. Rapid skill upgrading within detailed industries accounts for most of the growth in the relative demand for college workers, particularly since 1970. Analyses of four data sets indicate that the rate of skill upgrading has been greater in more computer-intensive industries.

State Versus Private Ownership

Abstract: Private ownership should generally be preferred to public ownership when the incentives to innovate and to contain costs must be strong. In essence, this is the case for capitalism over socialism, explaining the dynamic vitality' of free enterprise. The great economists of the 1930s and 1940s failed to see the dangers of socialism in part because they focused on the role of prices under socialism and capitalism and ignored the enormous importance of ownership as the source of capitalist incentives to innovate. Moreover, many of the concerns that private firms fail to address social goals' can be addressed through government contacting and regulation without resort to government ownership. The case for private provision only becomes stronger when competition between suppliers, reputational mechanisms, and the possibility of provision by private not-for-profit firms, as well as political patronage and corruption, are brought into play.

Compensation and Incentives: Practice vs. Theory

Abstract: A thorough understanding of internal incentive structures is critical to developing a viable theory of the firm, since these incentives determine to a large extent how individuals inside an organization behave. Many common features of organizational incentive systems are not easily explained by traditional economic theory--including egalitarian pay systems in which compensation is largely independent of performance, the overwhelming use of promotion-based incentive systems, the absence of up-front fees for jobs and effective bonding contracts, and the general reluctance of employers to fire, penalize, or give poor performance evaluations to employees. Typical explanations for these practices offered by behaviorists and practitioners are distinctly uneconomic--focusing on notions such as fairness, equity, morale, trust, social responsibility, and culture. The challenge to economists is to provide viable economic explanations for these practices or to integrate these alternative notions into the traditional economic model.

Measuring Market Power in the Ready-to-Eat Cereal Industry

Abstract: The ready-to-eat cereal industry is characterized by high concentration margins, large advertising to sales ratios, and numerous introductions of new products. Previous researchers have concluded that the ready-to-eat cereal industry is a classic example of an industry with nearly collusive pricing behavior and intense non-price competition. This paper empirically examines this conclusion. In particular, I estimate price-cost margins importantly I am able empirically to separate these margins into three parts: (1) that which is due to product differentiation; (2) that which is due to multi-product firm pricing; and (3) that due to potential price collusion. The results suggest that given the demand for different brands of cereal, the first two effects explain most of the observed price-cost markups. I conclude that prices in the industry are consistent with non-collusive pricing behavior to maintain a portfolio of differentiated products influence the perceived quality of these products, and it is these two factors that lead to high price-cost margins.

Are ceos really paid like bureaucrats

Abstract: A common view is that there is little correlation between firm performance and CEO pay. Using a new fifteen-year panel data set of CEOs in the largest, publicly traded U. S. companies, we document a strong relationship between firm performance and CEO compensation. This relationship is generated almost entirely by changes in the value of CEO holdings of stock and stock options. In addition, we show that both the level of CEO compensation and the sensitivity of compensation to firm performance have risen dramatically since 1980, largely because of increases in stock option grants.

Manufacturing Firms in Developing Countries: How Well Do They Do, and Why?

Abstract: Competition among manufacturers in developing countries is remarkably vigorous. Nonetheless, markets are imperfect, so the general trend toward trade liberalization has yielded benefits beyond the traditional gains from specialization. Manufacturing firms in developing countries have traditionally been relatively protected. They have also been subject to heavy regulation, much of it biased in favor of large enterprises. Accordingly, it is often argued that manufacturers in these countries perform poorly in several respects: - Markets tolerate inefficient firms, so cross-firm productivity dispersion is high. - Small groups of entrenched oligopolists exploit monopoly power in product markets. - Many small firms are unable or unwilling to grow, so important economies of scale go unexploited. Tybout assesses each of these conjectures, drawing on plant - and firm - level studies of manufacturers in developing countries. He finds systematic support for none of them. Turnover is substantial, exploited scale economies are modest, and convincing demonstrations of monopoly rents are generally lacking. Overprotection and overregulation are probably less a problem in developing countries than are uncertainty about policies and demand, poor rule of law, and corruption. Tybout does find some evidence that protection increases firms' price-cost margins and reduces average efficiency levels at the margin. And although the econometric evidence on technology diffusion in developing countries is limited, it does suggest that protecting learning industries is unlikely to foster productivity growth. All of which suggests that the general trend toward trade liberalization has yielded greater benefits than the traditional gains from trade. This paper - a product of Trade, Development Research Group - is part of a larger effort in the group to link firm-level performance with commerical policy.

Optimal Investment, Growth Options, and Security Returns

Abstract: As a consequence of optimal investment choices, firms' assets and growth options change in predictable ways. Using a dynamic model, we show that this imparts predictability to changes in a firm's systematic risk, and its expected return. Simulations show that the model simultaneously reproduces: (i) the time series relation between the book-to-market ratio and asset returns, (ii) the cross-sectional relation between book to market, market value and return, (iii) contrarian effects at short horizons, (iv) momentum effects at longer horizons, and (v) the inverse relation between interest rates and the market risk premium.

Measuring Monetary Policy

Abstract: Extending the approach of Bernanke and Blinder (1992), Strongin (1992), and Christiano, Eichenbaum, and Evans (1994a, 1994b), we develop and apply a VAR-based methodology for measuring the stance of monetary policy. More specifically, we develop a "semi-structural" VAR approach, which extracts information about monetary policy from data on bank reserves and the federal funds rate but leaves the relationships among the macroeconomic variables in the system unrestricted. The methodologynests earlier VAR-based measures and can be used to compare and evaluate these indicators. It can also be used to construct measures of the stance of policy that optimally incorporate estimates of the Fed's operating procedure for any given period. Among existing approaches, we find that innovations to the federal funds rate (Bernanke-Blinder) are a good measure of policy innovations during the periods 1965-79 and 1988-94; for the period 1979-94 as a whole, innovations to the component of nonborrowed reserves that is orthogonal to total reserves (Strongin) seems to be the best choice. We develop a new measure of policy stance that conforms well to qualitative indicators of policy such as the Boschen-Mills (1991) index. Innovations to our measure lead to reasonable and precisely estimated dynamic responses by variables such as real GDP and the GDP deflator.;

Aggregate Productivity Growth: Lessons from Microeconomic Evidence

Abstract: In this paper, we exploit establishment-level data to examine the relationship between microeconomic productivity dynamics and aggregate productivity growth. After synthesizing the evidence from recent studies, we conduct our own analysis using establishment-level data for U.S. manufacturing establishments as well for selected service industries. The use of longitudinal micro data on service sector establishments is one of the novel features of our analysis. Our main findings are summarized as follows: (i) the contribution of reallocation of outputs and inputs from less productive to more productive establishments plays a significant role in accounting for aggregate productivity growth; (ii) for the selected service industries considered, the contribution of net entry (more productive entering establishments displacing less productive exiting establishments) is dominant; (iii) the contribution of net entry to aggregate productivity growth is disproportionate and is increasing in the horizon over which the changes are measured since longer horizon yields greater differentials from selection and learning effects; (iv) the contribution of reallocation to aggregate productivity growth varies over time (e.g. is cyclically sensitive) and industries and is somewhat sensitive to subtle differences in measurement and decomposition methodologies.

Evaluating Density Forecasts with Applications to Financial Risk Management

Abstract: Density forecasting is increasingly more important and commonplace, forexample in financial risk management, yet little attention has been given to theevaluation of density forecasts. We develop a simple and operational frameworkfor density forecast evaluation. We illustrate the framework with adetailed application to density forecasting of asset returns in environments withtime-varying volatility. Finally, we discuss several extensions.

Incentives and Social Capital: Are Homeowners Better Citizens?

Abstract: Individuals invest in their local environments by volunteering, getting involved in local government, becoming informed about their political leaders, joining non-professional organizations and even gardening. Homeownership may encourage these investments because homeownership gives individuals an incentive to improve their community and because homeownership creates barriers to mobility. Using the U.S. General Social Survey document that homeowners are more likely to invest in social capital, and a simple instrumental variables strategy suggests that the relationship may be causal. While our results are not conclusive, we find evidence that a large portion of the effect of homeownership on these investments may come from lower mobility rates for homeowners. Using the German Socio-Economic Panel homeownership and citizenship controlling for individual fixed effects. Finally, across cities and counties, areas with more homeowners have lower government spending, but spend a larger share of their government budget on education and highways.

The new empirics of economic growth

Abstract: We provide an overview of recent empirical research on patterns of cross-country growth. The new empirical regularities considered differ from earlier ones, e.g. the well-known Kaldor stylized facts. The new research no longer makes production function accounting a central part of the analysis. Instead, attention shifts more directly to questions like, Why do some countries grow faster than others? It is this changed focus that, in our view, has motivated going beyond the neoclassical growth model.

A Behavioral Approach to Law and Economics

Abstract: Economic analysis of law usually proceeds under the assumptions of neoclassical economics. But empirical evidence gives much reason to doubt these assumptions; people exhibit bounded rationality, bounded self-interest, and bounded willpower. This article offers a broad vision of how law and economics analysis may be improved by increased attention to insights about actual human behavior. It considers specific topics in the economic analysis of law and proposes new models and approaches for addressing these topics. The analysis of the article is organized into three categories: positive, prescriptive, and normative. Positive analysis of law concerns how agents behave in response to legal rules and how legal rules are shaped. Prescriptive analysis concerns what rules should be adopted to advance specified ends. Normative analysis attempts to assess more broadly the ends of the legal system: Should the system always respect people's choices? By drawing attention to cognitive and motivational problems of both citizens and government, behavioral law and economics offers answers distinct from those offered by the standard analysis.

An Historical Analysis of Monetary Policy Rules

Abstract: This paper examines several episodes in U.S. monetary history using the framework of an interest rate rule for monetary policy. The main finding is that a monetary policy rule in which the interest rate responds to inflation and real output more aggressively than it did in the 1960s and 1970s, or than during the time of the international gold standard, and more like the late 1980s and 1990s, is a good policy rule. Moreover, if one defines rule, then such mistakes have been associated with either high and prolonged inflation or drawn out periods of low capacity utilization.

Implied Volatility Functions: Empirical Tests

Abstract: Derman and Kani (1994), Dupire (1994), and Rubinstein (1994) hypothesize that asset return volatility is a deterministic function of asset price and time, and develop a deterministic volatility function (DVF) option valuation model that has the potential of fitting the observed cross section of option prices exactly. Using S&P 500 options from June 1988 through December 1993, we examine the predictive and hedging performance of the DVF option valuation model and find it is no better than an ad hoc procedure that merely smooths Black–Scholes (1973) implied volatilities across exercise prices and times to expiration.

Are Internal capital Markets Efficient

Abstract: Using segment information from Compustat, we find that the investment by a segment of a diversified firm depends on the cash flow of the firm's other segments, but significantly less than it depends on its own cash flow. The investment by segments of highly diversified firms is less sensitive to their cash flow than the investment of comparable single-segment firms. The sensitivity of a segment's investment to the cash flow of other segments does not depend on whether its investment opportunities are better than those of the firm's other segments.

Universities as a Source of Commercial Technology: A Detailed Analysis of University Patenting, 1965–1988

Abstract: This paper explores the recent explosion in university patenting as a source of insight into the changing relationship between the university and the private sector. Before the mid-1980s, university patents were more highly cited, and were cited by more diverse patents, than a random sample of all patents. More recently several significant shifts in university patenting behavior have led to the disappearance of this difference. Thus our results suggest that between 1965 and 1988 the rate of increase of important patents from universities was much less than their overall rate of increase of patenting.

Implications of Skill-Biased Technological Change: International Evidence

Abstract: Demand for less-skilled workers plummeted in developed countries in the 1980s. In open economies, pervasive skill-biased technological change (SBTC) can explain this decline. SBTC tends to increase the domestic supply of unskill-intensive goods by releasing less-skilled labor. The more countries experiencing a SBTC, the greater its potential to decrease the relative wages of less-skilled labor by increasing the world supply of unskill-intensive goods. We find strong evidence for pervasive SBTC in developed countries. Most industries increased the proportion of skilled workers despite generally rising or stable relative wages. Moreover, the same manufacturing industries simultaneously increased demand for skills in different countries. Many developing countries also show increased skill premiums, a pattern consistent with SBTC.