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Institution

National Bureau of Economic Research

NonprofitCambridge, Massachusetts, United States
About: National Bureau of Economic Research is a nonprofit organization based out in Cambridge, Massachusetts, United States. It is known for research contribution in the topics: Monetary policy & Population. The organization has 2626 authors who have published 34177 publications receiving 2818124 citations. The organization is also known as: NBER & The National Bureau of Economic Research.


Papers
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Posted Content
TL;DR: The authors showed that the interest rate on the Federal Funds is extremely informative about future movements of real macroeconomic variables, more so than monetary aggregates or other interest rates, and argued that the reason for this forecasting is that the funds rate sensitively records shocks to the supply of (not the demand for) bank reserves.
Abstract: First, we show that the interest rate on Federal funds is extremely informative about future movements of real macroeconomic variables, more so than monetary aggregates or other interest rates. Next, we argue that the reason for this forecasting is that the funds rate sensitively records shocks to the supply of (not the demand for) bank reserves, i.e. the funds rate is a good indicator of monetary policy actions. Finally, using innovations to the fuels rate as a measure of changes in monetary policy, we present evidence consistent with the view that monetary policy works at least in part through "credit" (that is, bank loans) as well as through "money" (that is, bank deposits) - even though bank loans fail to Granger-cause real variables.

3,027 citations

Posted Content
TL;DR: In this paper, the marginal utility of consumption evolves according to a random walk with trend, and consumption itself should evolve in the same way, and the evidence supports a modified version of the life cycle permanent income hypothesis.
Abstract: Optimization of the part of consumers is shown to imply that the marginal utility of consumption evolves according to a random walk with trend. To a reasonable approximation, consumption itself should evolve in the same way. In particular, no variable apart from current consumption should be of any value in predicting future consumption. This implication is tested with time-series data for the postwar United States. It is confirmed for real disposable income, which has no predictive power for consumption, but rejected for an index of stock prices. The paper concludes that the evidence supports a modified version of the life cycle-permanent income hypothesis.

2,957 citations

Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: In this paper, the optimal timing of investment in an irreversible project where the benefits from the project and the investment cost follow continuous-time stochastic processes was studied, and an explicit formula for the value of the option to invest was derived, assuming that the option is valued by risk-averse investors who are well diversified.
Abstract: This paper studies the optimal timing of investment in an irreversible project where the benefits from the project and the investment cost follow continuous-time stochastic processes. The optimal investment rule and an explicit formula for the value of the option to invest are derived, assuming that the option is valued by risk-averse investors who are well diversified. The same analysis is applied to the scrapping decision. Simulations show that this option value can be significant, and that for reasonable parameter values it is optimal to wait until benefits are twice the investment costs.

2,927 citations

Posted Content
TL;DR: The evidence is quite" clear on one point: good firms become exporters, both growth rates and levels of success measures" are higher ex-ante for exporters as mentioned in this paper.
Abstract: A growing body of empirical work has documented the superior performance characteristics" of exporting plants and firms relative to non-exporters. Employment, shipments and capital intensity are all higher at exporters at any given moment. This paper asks whether good" firms become exporters or whether exporting improves firm performance. The evidence is quite" clear on one point: good firms become exporters, both growth rates and levels of success measures" are higher ex-ante for exporters. The benefits of exporting for the firm are less clear. Employment" growth and the probability of survival are both higher for exporters; however growth is not superior, particularly over longer horizons.

2,923 citations

Posted Content
TL;DR: In this paper, the optimal timing of investment in an irreversible project where the benefits from the project and the investment cost follow continuous-time stochastic processes is studied, and the optimal time to invest and an explicit formula for the value of the option to invest are derived.
Abstract: This paper studies the optimal timing of investment in an irreversible project where the benefits from the project and the investment cost follow continuous-time stochastic processes The optimal time to invest and an explicit formula for the value of the option to invest are derived The rule "invest if benefits exceed costs" does not properly account for the option value of waitingSimulations show that this option value can be significant, and that for surprisingly reasonable parameter values it may be optimal to wait until benefits are twice the investment cost Finally, we perform comparative static analysis on the valuation formula and on the rule for when to invest

2,900 citations


Authors

Showing all 2855 results

NameH-indexPapersCitations
James J. Heckman175766156816
Andrei Shleifer171514271880
Joseph E. Stiglitz1641142152469
Daron Acemoglu154734110678
Gordon H. Hanson1521434119422
Edward L. Glaeser13755083601
Alberto Alesina13549893388
Martin B. Keller13154165069
Jeffrey D. Sachs13069286589
John Y. Campbell12840098963
Robert J. Barro124519121046
René M. Stulz12447081342
Paul Krugman123347102312
Ross Levine122398108067
Philippe Aghion12250773438
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Performance
Metrics
No. of papers from the Institution in previous years
YearPapers
202379
2022253
2021661
2020997
2019767
2018780