National Bureau of Economic Research

About: National Bureau of Economic Research is a nonprofit organization based out in Cambridge, Massachusetts, United States. It is known for research contribution in the topics: Monetary policy & Population. The organization has 2626 authors who have published 34177 publications receiving 2818124 citations. The organization is also known as: NBER & The National Bureau of Economic Research.

Productivity and Turnover in the Export Market: Micro-level Evidence from the Republic of Korea and Taiwan (China)

Abstract: Widespread empirical evidence indicates that exporting producers have higher productivity than non-exporters, although the reasons why are unclear. Some analysts argue that exporters acquire knowledge of new production methods, inputs, and product designs from their international contacts, and with this knowledge they achieve higher productivity than their more insulated domestic counterparts. Others argue that the higher productivity of exporters reflects the self-selection of more efficient producers into a highly competitive export market. This article analyzes the link between a producer's total factor productivity and its decision to participate in the export market, using manufacturing data from the Republic of Korea and Taiwan (China). Differences are found between these two economies in the importance of selection and learning. In Taiwan (China) transitions of plants into and out of the export market reflect systematic variations in productivity as predicted by self-selection models. In Korea there are no significant changes in productivity following entry or exit from the export market that are consistent with learning from exporting. A comparison of the two economies suggests that in Korea factors other than production efficiency are more prominent determinants of the export decision.

State-Dependent Pricing and the General Equilibrium Dynamics of Money and Output

Abstract: Economists have long suggested that nominal product prices are changed infrequently because of fixed costs. In such a setting, optimal price adjustment should depend on the state of the economy. Yet, while widely discussed, statedependent pricing has proved difficult to incorporate into macroeconomic models. This paper develops a new, tractable theoretical state-dependent pricing framework. We use it to study how optimal pricing depends on the persistence of monetary shocks, the elasticities of labor supply and goods demand, and the interest sensitivity of money demand.

Can News About the Future Drive the Business Cycle

Abstract: We propose a model that generates an economic expansion in response to good news about future total factor productivity (TFP) or investment-specific technical change. The model has three key elements: variable capital utilization, adjustment costs to investment, and preferences that exhibit a weak short-run wealth effect on the labour supply. These preferences nest the two classes of utility functions most widely used in the business cycle literature as special cases. Our model can generate recessions that resemble those of the post-war U.S. economy without relying on negative productivity shocks. The recessions are caused not by contemporaneous negative shocks but rather by lackluster news about future TFP or investment-specific technical change.

Simulated Moments Estimation of Markov Models of Asset Prices

Abstract: This paper provides a simulated moments estimator (SME) of the parameters of dynamic models in which the state vector follows a time-homogeneous Markov process. Conditions are provided for both weak and strong consistency as well as asymptotic normality. Various tradeoff's among the regularity conditions underlying the large sample properties of the SME are discussed in the context of an asset pricing model.

Interest-Rate Rules in an Estimated Sticky Price Model

Abstract: This paper evaluates alternative rules by which the Fed may set interest rates using the small model of the U.S. economy estimated in Rotemberg and Woodford (1997). Our main substantive finding is that low and stable inflation together with stable interest rates can be achieved by letting the funds rate respond positively to inflation while also responding, with a coefficient bigger than one, to the lagged funds rate itself. A rule in which the interest rate is set in this extremely simple way does almost as well as a more complicated rule which is optimal in our setting, in the sense of maximizing expected utility to the representative household. Furthermore, when the funds rate responds to inflation only with a delay, due to delay in the availability of inflation data, performance under the rule is only slightly reduced.