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Institution

National Bureau of Economic Research

NonprofitCambridge, Massachusetts, United States
About: National Bureau of Economic Research is a nonprofit organization based out in Cambridge, Massachusetts, United States. It is known for research contribution in the topics: Monetary policy & Population. The organization has 2626 authors who have published 34177 publications receiving 2818124 citations. The organization is also known as: NBER & The National Bureau of Economic Research.


Papers
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Posted Content
TL;DR: The authors examined whether this job has become harder and, to the extent that it has, what changes in the inflation process have made it so, and found that the univariate inflation process is well described by an unobserved component trend-cycle model with stochastic volatility or an integrated moving average process with time-varying parameters.
Abstract: Forecasts of the rate of price inflation play a central role in the formulation of monetary policy, and forecasting inflation is a key job for economists at the Federal Reserve Board. This paper examines whether this job has become harder and, to the extent that it has, what changes in the inflation process have made it so. The main finding is that the univariate inflation process is well described by an unobserved component trend-cycle model with stochastic volatility or, equivalently, an integrated moving average process with time-varying parameters; this model explains a variety of recent univariate inflation forecasting puzzles. It appears currently to be difficult for multivariate forecasts to improve on forecasts made using this time-varying univariate model.

698 citations

Posted Content
TL;DR: In this article, the authors suggest that most effective ways to help participants are also the least costly interventions: namely, small changes in plan design, sensible default options and opportunities to increase savings rates and rebalance portfolios automatically.
Abstract: Saving for retirement is a difficult problem, and most employees have little training upon which to draw in making the relevant decisions. Perhaps as a result, investors are relatively passive. They are slow to join advantageous plans; they make infrequent changes; and they adopt naive diversification strategies. In short, they need all the help they can get. Fortunately, many effective ways to help participants are also the least costly interventions: namely, small changes in plan design, sensible default options and opportunities to increase savings rates and rebalance portfolios automatically. These design features help less sophisticated investors while maintaining flexibility for more sophisticated types.

697 citations

Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: In this article, the authors exploit random assignment of gender quotas for leadership positions on Indian village councils to show that prior exposure to a female leader is associated with electoral gains for women and that women are more likely to stand for, and win, elected positions in councils required to have a female chief councilor in the previous two elections.
Abstract: We exploit random assignment of gender quotas for leadership positions on Indian village councils to show that prior exposure to a female leader is associated with electoral gains for women. After ten years of quotas, women are more likely to stand for, and win, elected positions in councils required to have a female chief councilor in the previous two elections. We provide experimental and survey evidence on one channel of influence—changes in voter attitudes. Prior exposure to a female chief councilor improves perceptions of female leader effectiveness and weakens stereotypes about gender roles in the public and domestic spheres.

697 citations

Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: In this article, the authors proposed that individuals overweight inflation experienced during their lifetimes and modifies existing adaptive learning models to allow for age-dependent updating of expectations in response to inflation surprises.
Abstract: How do individuals form expectations about future inflation? We propose that individuals overweight inflation experienced during their lifetimes. This approach modifies existing adaptive learning models to allow for age-dependent updating of expectations in response to inflation surprises. Young individuals update their expectations more strongly than older individuals since recent experiences account for a greater share of their accumulated lifetime history. We find support for these predictions using 57 years of microdata on inflation expectations from the Reuters/Michigan Survey of Consumers. Differences in experiences strongly predict differences in expectations, including the substantial disagreement between young and old individuals in periods of highly volatile inflation, such as the 1970s. It also explains household borrowing and lending behavior, including the choice of mortgages. JEL Codes: E03, G02, D03, E31, E37, D84, D83, D14.

697 citations

Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: The authors found that African-Americans who participated in Head Start are significantly more likely to complete high school, attend college, and possibly have higher earnings in their early twenties than their white counterparts.
Abstract: Specially collected data on adults in the Panel Study of Income Dynamics are used to provide evidence on the longer-term effects of Head Start, an early intervention program for poor preschool-age children. Whites who attended Head Start are, relative to their siblings who did not, significantly more likely to complete high school, attend college, and possibly have higher earnings in their early twenties. African-Americans who participated in Head Start are less likely to have been booked or charged with a crime. There is some evidence of positive spillovers from older Head Start children to their younger siblings. Language: en

696 citations


Authors

Showing all 2855 results

NameH-indexPapersCitations
James J. Heckman175766156816
Andrei Shleifer171514271880
Joseph E. Stiglitz1641142152469
Daron Acemoglu154734110678
Gordon H. Hanson1521434119422
Edward L. Glaeser13755083601
Alberto Alesina13549893388
Martin B. Keller13154165069
Jeffrey D. Sachs13069286589
John Y. Campbell12840098963
Robert J. Barro124519121046
René M. Stulz12447081342
Paul Krugman123347102312
Ross Levine122398108067
Philippe Aghion12250773438
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Performance
Metrics
No. of papers from the Institution in previous years
YearPapers
202379
2022253
2021661
2020997
2019767
2018780