National Bureau of Economic Research

About: National Bureau of Economic Research is a nonprofit organization based out in Cambridge, Massachusetts, United States. It is known for research contribution in the topics: Monetary policy & Population. The organization has 2626 authors who have published 34177 publications receiving 2818124 citations. The organization is also known as: NBER & The National Bureau of Economic Research.

Life-Cycle Variation in the Association between Current and Lifetime Earnings

Abstract: Researchers in a variety of important economic literatures have assumed that current income variables as proxies for lifetime income variables follow the textbook errors-in-variables model. In an analysis of Social Security records containing nearly career-long earnings histories for the Health and Retirement Study sample, we find that the relationship between current and lifetime earnings departs substantially from the textbook model in ways that vary systematically over the life cycle. Our results can enable more appropriate analysis of and correction for errors-in-variables bias in a wide range of research that uses current earnings to proxy for lifetime earnings.

Electoral Rules and Corruption

Abstract: Is corruption systematically related to electoral rules? A number of studies have tried to uncover economic and social determinants of corruption but, as far as we know, nobody has yet empirically investigated how electoral systems influence corruption. We try to address this lacuna in the literature, by relating corruption to different features of the electoral system in a sample from the late nineties encompassing more than 80 (developed and developing) democracies. Our empirical results are based on traditional regression methods, as well as non-parametric estimators. The evidence is consistent with the theoretical models reviewed in the Paper. Holding constant a variety of economic and social variables, we find that larger voting districts - and thus lower barriers to entry - are associated with less corruption, whereas larger shares of candidates elected from party lists - and thus less individual accountability - are associated with more corruption. Altogether, proportional elections are associated with more corruption, since voting over party lists is the dominant effect, while the district magnitude effect is less robust.

The Spline-Garch Model for Low Frequency Volatility and its Global Macroeconomic Causes

Abstract: Twenty-five years of volatility research has left the macroeconomic environment playing a minor role. This paper proposes modeling equity volatilities as a combination of macroeconomic effects and time series dynamics. High frequency return volatility is specified to be the product of a slow-moving component, represented by an exponential spline, and a unit GARCH. This slow-moving component is the low frequency volatility, which in this model coincides with the unconditional volatility. This component is estimated for nearly 50 countries over various sample periods of daily data.Low frequency volatility is then modeled as a function of macroeconomic and financial variables in an unbalanced panel with a variety of dependence structures. It is found to vary over time and across countries. The low frequency component of volatility is greater when the macroeconomic factors GDP, inflation, and short-term interest rates are more volatile or when inflation is high and output growth is low. Volatility is higher for emerging markets and for markets with small numbers of listed companies and market capitalization relative to GDP, but also for large economies.The model allows long horizon forecasts of volatility to depend on macroeconomic developments, and delivers estimates of the volatility to be anticipated in a newly opened market.

The Effect of Uncertainty on Investment: Some Stylized Facts

Abstract: The theoretical relationship between investment and uncertainty is ambiguous. This paper briefly surveys the insights that theory has to offer and then runs a series of simple tests aimed at evaluating the empirical significance of various theoretical effects. Our results from a panel of U.S. manufacturing firms indicate a negative effect of uncertainty on investment consistent with theories of irreversible investment. We find no evidence for a positive effect via the channel of the convexity of the marginal product of capital, and we find no evidence for the presence of a CAPM-based effect of risk.

Is the 2007 U.S. Sub-Prime Financial Crisis so Different? an International Historical Comparison

Abstract: Is the 2007-2008 U.S. sub-prime mortgage financial crisis truly a new and different phenomena? Our examination of the longer historical record finds stunning qualitative and quantitative parallels to 18 earlier post-war banking crises in industrialized countries. Specifically, the run-up in U.S. equity and housing prices (which, for countries experiencing large capital inflows, stands out as the best leading indicator in the financial crisis literature) closely tracks the average of the earlier crises. Another important parallel is the inverted v-shape curve for output growth the U.S. experienced as its economy slowed in the eve of the crisis. Among other indicators, the run-up in U.S. public debt and is actually somewhat below the average of other episodes, and its pre-crisis inflation level is also lower. On the other hand, the United States current account deficit trajectory is worse than average. A critical question is whether the U.S. crisis will prove similar to the most severe industrialized-country crises, in which case growth may fall significantly below trend for an extended period. Or will it prove like one of the milder episodes, where the recovery is relatively fast? Much will depend on how large the shock to the financial system proves to be and, to a lesser extent, on the efficacy of the subsequent policy response.