National Bureau of Economic Research

About: National Bureau of Economic Research is a nonprofit organization based out in Cambridge, Massachusetts, United States. It is known for research contribution in the topics: Monetary policy & Population. The organization has 2626 authors who have published 34177 publications receiving 2818124 citations. The organization is also known as: NBER & The National Bureau of Economic Research.

How Big are the Tax Benefits of Debt

Abstract: This paper estimates how much "interest deductibility" contributes to firm value. By integrating under firm-specific benefit functions, the present value tax benefit of interest deductions is estimated to equal approximately 10% of firm value. The economy-wide benefit peaked at about $118 billion in 1990 (or about $60 billion, net of the personal tax penalty). The implicit cost of debt is inferred by observing where firms locate on their interest-deduction benefit curves. Paradoxically, profitable firms with low apparent costs are very conservative in their pursuit of interest deductions. Conservative debt policy is persistent and firms do not use their financial slack to fund future capital expenditures or acquisitions.

A New Approach to Measuring Financial Contagion

Abstract: This paper proposes a new approach to evaluate contagion in financial markets. Our measure of contagion captures the co-incidence of extreme return shocks across countries within a region and across regions that cannot be explained by linear propagation models of shocks. We characterize the extent of contagion, its economic significance, and its determinants using a multinomial logistic regression model. Applying our approach to daily returns of emerging markets during the 1990s, we find that contagion, when measured by the co-incidence within and across regions of extreme return shocks, is predictable and depends on regional interest rates, exchange rate changes, and conditional stock return volatility. Evidence that contagion is stronger for extreme negative returns than for extreme positive returns is mixed.

Keynesian Macroeconomics Without the Lm Curve

Abstract: Changes in both the macroeconomy and in macroeconomics suggest that the IS-LM-AS model is no longer the best baseline model of short-run fluctuations for teaching and policy analysis. This paper presents an alternative model that replaces the assumption that the central bank targets the money supply with an assumption that it follows a simple interest rate rule. The resulting model is simpler, more realistic, and more coherent than IS-LM-AS, not just in its treatment of monetary policy but in many other ways. The paper also discusses other alternatives to IS-LM-AS.

Window Dressing by Pension Fund Managers

Abstract: This paper takes a first look at investment strategies of managers of 769 pension funds, with total assets of $129 billion at the end of 1989. The data show that managers of these funds tend to oversell stocks that have performed poorly. Relative sales of losers accelerate in the fourth quarter, when funds' portfolios are closely examined by the sponsors. This result supports the view that fund managers "window dress" their portfolios to impress sponsors and suggests that managers are evaluated on their individual stock selections and not just aggregate portfolio performance.

Purchasing Power Parity: Doctrinal Perspective and Evidence from the 1920s

Abstract: The first part of the paper traces the doctrinal origins of the purchasing power parity (PPP) doctrine and reviews the central issues of controversy. The second part is an empirical study covering the flexible exchange rates period of the 1920s. The empirical work examines the efficiency of foreign exchange markets, the absolute and the relative versions of PPP for alternative price indices, the homogeneity postulate, the relation between the short run and the long run, and the patterns of 'causality' between prices and exchange rates. The paper concludes with estimations of price equations and a discussion of the proper specification of PPP.