National Bureau of Economic Research

About: National Bureau of Economic Research is a nonprofit organization based out in Cambridge, Massachusetts, United States. It is known for research contribution in the topics: Monetary policy & Population. The organization has 2626 authors who have published 34177 publications receiving 2818124 citations. The organization is also known as: NBER & The National Bureau of Economic Research.

Time Varying Structural Vector Autoregressions and Monetary Policy

Abstract: Monetary policy and the private sector behavior of the US economy are modeled as a time varying structural vector autoregression, where the sources of time variation are both the coefficients and the variance covariance matrix of the innovations. The paper develops a new, simple modeling strategy for the law of motion of the variance covariance matrix and proposes an efficient Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithm for the model likelihood/posterior numerical evaluation. The main empirical conclusions are: 1) both systematic and non-systematic monetary policy have changed during the last forty years. In particular, long run systematic responses of the interest rate to inflation and unemployment exhibit a trend toward a more aggressive behavior, despite remarkable oscillations; 2) this has had a negligible effect on the rest of the economy. The role played by exogenous non-policy shocks seems much more important than monetary policy in explaining the high inflation and unemployment episodes in recent US economic history.

Bubbles in Metropolitan Housing Markets

Abstract: A commonsense and empirically supported approach to explaining metropolitan real house price changes is for the theory to describe an equilibrium price level to which the market is constantly adjusting. The determinants of real house price appreciation, then, can be divided into two groups, one that explains changes in the equilibrium price and the other that accounts for the adjustment dynamics or changing deviations from the equilibrium price. The former group includes the growth in real income and real construction costs and changes in the real after-tax interest rate. The latter group consists of lagged real appreciation and the difference between the actual and equilibrium real house price levels. Either group of variables can explain a little over two-fifths of the variation in real house price movements in 30 cities over the 1977-92 period; together, they explain three-fifths.

Are We Consuming Too Much

Abstract: This paper articulates and applies frameworks for examining whether consumption is excessive. We consider two criteria for the possible excessiveness (or insufficiency) of current consumption. One is an intertemporal utility-maximization criterion: actual current consumption is deemed excessive if it is higher than the level of current consumption on the consumption path that maximizes the present discounted value of utility. The other is a sustainability criterion, which requires that current consumption be consistent with non-declining living standards over time. We extend previous theoretical approaches by offering a formula for the sustainability criterion that accounts for population growth and technological change. In applying this formula, we find that some poor regions of the world are failing to meet the sustainability criterion: in these regions, genuine wealth per capita is falling as investments in human and manufactured capital are not sufficient to offset the depletion of natural capital.

Climate Change, Mortality and Adaptation: Evidence from Annual Fluctuations in Weather in the U.S.

Abstract: This paper produces the first large-scale estimates of the US health related welfare costs due to climate change. The full welfare impact will be reflected in health outcomes and increased consumption of goods that preserve individuals' health. Using the presumably random year-to-year variation in temperature and two state of the art climate models, the analysis suggests that under a 'business as usual' scenario climate change will lead to an increase in the overall US annual mortality rate of approximately 2% at the end of the 21st century. Among different age groups, the estimated mortality increases are largest for infants. Individuals are likely to respond to higher temperatures by increasing air conditioning usage; the analysis suggests that climate change will lead to increases in annual residential energy consumption of up to 32% by the end of the century. Overall, the estimates suggest that the present discounted value of willingness to pay to avoid the climate change induced mortality and energy impacts predicted to occur over the remainder of the 21st century is about $900 billion (2006$) or 6.8% of 2006 GDP. This estimate of willingness to pay is statistically insignificant and is likely to overstate the long-run costs of climate change on these outcomes, because climate change will unfold gradually and individuals can engage in a wider set of adaptations that will mitigate costs in the longer run.

Four Formal(izable) Theories of the Firm

Abstract: In this essay, I define and compare elemental versions of four theories of the firm. These elemental theories are distilled from important contributions by Hart, Holmstrom, Klein, Williamson, and others. Although these contributions have been widely cited and much discussed, I have found it difficult to understand the commonalities, distinctions, and potential combinations of these seemingly familiar contributions. In this essay, therefore, I attempt to clarify these issues, in three steps: I begin with informal summaries of the theories, then turn to simple but formal statements of each elemental theory, and finally nest the four elemental theories in an integrative framework.