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Institution

National Bureau of Economic Research

NonprofitCambridge, Massachusetts, United States
About: National Bureau of Economic Research is a nonprofit organization based out in Cambridge, Massachusetts, United States. It is known for research contribution in the topics: Monetary policy & Population. The organization has 2626 authors who have published 34177 publications receiving 2818124 citations. The organization is also known as: NBER & The National Bureau of Economic Research.


Papers
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Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: The authors examined whether the U.S. rate of price inflation has become harder to forecast and, to the extent that it has, what changes in the inflation process have made it so, and found that the univariate inflation process is well described by an unobserved component trend-cycle model with stochastic volatility or, equivalently, an integrated moving average process with time-varying parameters.
Abstract: We examine whether the U.S. rate of price inflation has become harder to forecast and, to the extent that it has, what changes in the inflation process have made it so. The main finding is that the univariate inflation process is well described by an unobserved component trend-cycle model with stochastic volatility or, equivalently, an integrated moving average process with time-varying parameters. This model explains a variety of recent univariate inflation forecasting puzzles and begins to explain some multivariate inflation forecasting puzzles as well.

962 citations

Posted Content
TL;DR: The authors analyzes the origins of this tax haven activity and its implications for the US and foreign governments, showing that American companies report extraordinarily high profit rates on both their real and their financial investments in tax havens.
Abstract: The offshore tax haven affiliates of American corporations account for more than a quarter of US foreign investment, an nearly a third of the foreign profits of US firms. This paper analyzes the origins of this tax haven activity and its implications for the US and foreign governments. Based on the behavior of US fins in 1982, it appears that American companies report extraordinarily high profit rates on both their real and their financial investments in tax havens. We calculate from this behavior that the tax rate that maximizes tax revenue for a typical haven is around 6%. The revenue implications for the US are more complicated, since tax havens may ultimately enhance the ability of the US government to tax the foreign earnings of American companies.

962 citations

Posted Content
TL;DR: In this article, the authors investigate the relative importance of financial and human capital exploiting the variation provided by intergenerational links, and find that young men's own financial assets exert a statistically significant but quantitatively modest effect on the transition from a wage and salary job to self-employment.
Abstract: The environment for business creation is central to economic policy, as entrepreneurs are believed to be forces of innovation, employment and economic dynamism. We use data from the National Longitudinal Surveys (NLS) to investigate the relative importance of financial and human capital exploiting the variation provided by intergenerational links. Specifically, we estimate the impacts of parental wealth and human capital on the probability that an individual will make the transition from a wage and salary job to self-employment. We find that young men's own financial assets exert a statistically significant, but quantitatively modest effect on the transition to self-employment. In contrast, the capital of parents exerts a large influence. Parents' strongest effect runs not through financial means, but rather through human capital, i.e., the intergenerational correlation in self-employment. This link is even stronger along gender lines.

961 citations

ReportDOI
TL;DR: The authors provides a critical look at recent empirical work in international trade theory and addresses the issue of why empirical work has perhaps not been as influential as it could have been, and also provides several suggestions on directions for future empirical research in International Trade.
Abstract: This paper provides a critical look at recent empirical work in international trade theory. The paper addresses the issue of why empirical work in international trade has perhaps not been as influential as it could have been. The paper also provides several suggestions on directions for future empirical research in international trade.

960 citations

Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: The authors construct an index of the "income level of a country's exports," document its properties, and show that it predicts subsequent economic growth, and demonstrate this proposition formally and adduce some empirical support.
Abstract: When local cost discovery generates knowledge spillovers, specialization patterns become partly indeterminate and the mix of goods that a country produces may have important implications for economic growth. We demonstrate this proposition formally and adduce some empirical support for it. We construct an index of the 'income level of a country's exports,' document its properties, and show that it predicts subsequent economic growth.

960 citations


Authors

Showing all 2855 results

NameH-indexPapersCitations
James J. Heckman175766156816
Andrei Shleifer171514271880
Joseph E. Stiglitz1641142152469
Daron Acemoglu154734110678
Gordon H. Hanson1521434119422
Edward L. Glaeser13755083601
Alberto Alesina13549893388
Martin B. Keller13154165069
Jeffrey D. Sachs13069286589
John Y. Campbell12840098963
Robert J. Barro124519121046
René M. Stulz12447081342
Paul Krugman123347102312
Ross Levine122398108067
Philippe Aghion12250773438
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Performance
Metrics
No. of papers from the Institution in previous years
YearPapers
202379
2022253
2021661
2020997
2019767
2018780