National Bureau of Economic Research

About: National Bureau of Economic Research is a nonprofit organization based out in Cambridge, Massachusetts, United States. It is known for research contribution in the topics: Monetary policy & Population. The organization has 2626 authors who have published 34177 publications receiving 2818124 citations. The organization is also known as: NBER & The National Bureau of Economic Research.

Drifts and Volatilities: Monetary Policies and Outcomes in the Post WWII U.S.

Abstract: For a VAR with drifting coefficients and stochastic volatilities, the authors present posterior densities for several objects that are of interest for designing and evaluating monetary policy. These include measures of inflation persistence, the natural rate of unemployment, a core rate of inflation, and “activism coefficients” for monetary policy rules. Their posteriors imply substantial variation of all of these objects for post WWII U.S. data. After adjusting for changes in volatility, persistence of inflation increases during the 1970s then falls in the 1980s and 1990s. Innovation variances change systematically, being substantially larger in the late 1970s than during other times. Measures of uncertainty about core inflation and the degree of persistence covary positively. The authors use their posterior distributions to evaluate the power of several tests that have been used to test the null of time-invariance of autoregressive coefficients of VARs against the alternative of time-varying coefficients. Except for one test, they find that those tests have low power against the form of time variation captured by our model. That one test also rejects time invariance in the data.

Facts and Fantasies About Commodity Futures

Abstract: We construct an equally-weighted index of commodity futures monthly returns over the period between July of 1959 and December of 2004 in order to study simple properties of commodity futures as an asset class. Fully-collateralized commodity futures have historically offered the same return and Sharpe ratio as equities. While the risk premium on commodity futures is essentially the same as equities, commodity futures returns are negatively correlated with equity returns and bond returns. The negative correlation between commodity futures and the other asset classes is due, in significant part, to different behavior over the business cycle. In addition, commodity futures are positively correlated with inflation, unexpected inflation, and changes in expected inflation.

The Dividend-Price Ratio and Expectations of Future Dividends and Discount Factors

Abstract: A linearization of a rational expectations present value model for corporate stock prices produces a simple relation between the log dividend-price ratio and mathematical expectations of future log real dividend changes and future real discount rates. This relation can be tested using vector autoregressive methods. Three versions of the linearized model, differing in the measure of discount rates, are tested for U. S. time series 1871-1986: versions using real interest rate data, aggregate real consumption data, and return variance data. The results yield a metric to judge the relative importance of real dividend growth, measured real discount rates and unexplained factors in determining the dividend-price ratio.

Trade Credit: Theories and Evidence

Abstract: In addition to borrowing from financial institutions, firms may be financed by their suppliers. Although there are many theories explaining why non-financial firms lend money, there are few comprehensive empirical tests of these theories. This paper attempts to fill the gap. We focus on a sample of small firms whose access to capital markets may be limited. We find evidence that firms use trade credit relatively more when credit from financial institutions is not available. Thus while short term trade credit may be routinely used to minimize transactions costs, medium term borrowing against trade credit is a form of financing of last resort. Suppliers lend to firms no one else lends to because they may have a comparative advantage in getting information about buyers cheaply, they have a better ability to liquidate goods, and they have a greater implicit equity stake in the firm's long term survival. We find some evidence consistent with the use of trade credit as a means of price discrimination. Finally, we find that firms with better access to credit from financial institutions offer more trade credit. This suggests that firms may intermediate between institutional creditors and other firms who have limited access to financial institutions.