National Research University – Higher School of Economics

About: National Research University – Higher School of Economics is a education organization based out in Moscow, Russia. It is known for research contribution in the topics: Population & Politics. The organization has 12873 authors who have published 23376 publications receiving 256396 citations.

Cryptocurrencies: market analysis and perspectives

Abstract: The papers in this special issue focus on the emerging phenomenon of cryptocurrencies. Cryptocurrencies are digital financial assets, for which ownership and transfers of ownership are guaranteed by a cryptographic decentralized technology. The rise of cryptocurrencies’ value on the market and the growing popularity around the world open a number of challenges and concerns for business and industrial economics. Using the lenses of both neoclassical and behavioral theories, this introductory article discusses the main trends in the academic research related to cryptocurrencies and highlights the contributions of the selected works to the literature. A particular emphasis is on socio-economic, misconduct and sustainability issues. We posit that cryptocurrencies may perform some useful functions and add economic value, but there are reasons to favor the regulation of the market. While this would go against the original libertarian rationale behind cryptocurrencies, it appears a necessary step to improve social welfare.

Random Survival Forests Models for SME Credit Risk Measurement

Abstract: This paper extends the existing literature on empirical research in the field of credit risk default for Small Medium Enterprizes (SMEs). We propose a non-parametric approach based on Random Survival Forests (RSF) and we compare its performance with a standard logit model. To the authors' knowledge, no studies in the area of credit risk default for SMEs have used a variety of statistical methodologies to test the reliability of their predictions and to compare their performance against one another. As for the in-sample results, we find that our non-parametric model performs much better that the classical logit model. As for the out-of-sample performances, the evidence is just the opposite, and the logit performs better than the RSF model. We explain this evidence by showing how error in the estimates of default probabilities can affect classification error when the estimates are used in a classification rule.

Trade Performance and Regional Integration of the Cis Countries

Abstract: Trade Performance and Regional Integration of the CIS Countries is part of the World Bank Working Paper series. These papers are published to communicate the results of the Bank's ongoing research and to stimulate public discussion. The CIS free trade area is, on balance, a beneficial, trade facilitating bloc. However, the potential benefits of CIS trade integration remain badly underutilized. Based on standard econometric models, the study provides a detailed quantitative analysis of the trends and the configuration of trade of the CIS countries.

Quantum periods for 3-dimensional Fano manifolds

Abstract: The quantum period of a variety X is a generating function for certain Gromov-Witten invariants of X which plays an important role in mirror symmetry. In this paper we compute the quantum periods of all 3-dimensional Fano manifolds. In particular we show that 3-dimensional Fano manifolds with very ample anticanonical bundle have mirrors given by a collection of Laurent polynomials called Minkowski polynomials. This was conjectured in joint work with Golyshev. It suggests a new approach to the classification of Fano manifolds: by proving an appropriate mirror theorem and then classifying Fano mirrors. Our methods are likely to be of independent interest. We rework the Mori-Mukai classification of 3-dimensional Fano manifolds, showing that each of them can be expressed as the zero locus of a section of a homogeneous vector bundle over a GIT quotient V/G, where G is a product of groups of the form GL_n(C) and V is a representation of G. When G=GL_1(C)^r, this expresses the Fano 3-fold as a toric complete intersection; in the remaining cases, it expresses the Fano 3-fold as a tautological subvariety of a Grassmannian, partial flag manifold, or projective bundle thereon. We then compute the quantum periods using the Quantum Lefschetz Hyperplane Theorem of Coates-Givental and the Abelian/non-Abelian correspondence of Bertram-Ciocan-Fontanine-Kim-Sabbah.