Showing papers by "Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research published in 2020"
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University of Bremen1, Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research2, University of Potsdam3, University College London4, University of Padua5, Leibniz Institute of Marine Sciences6, University of St Andrews7, University of Exeter8, National Oceanography Centre, Southampton9, National Institute of Geophysics and Volcanology10, University of Cambridge11, University of Kiel12, University of Edinburgh13, University of Bristol14, Utrecht University15, Oregon State University16, Tongji University17, University of Hawaii18, University of California, Santa Cruz19
TL;DR: A new, highly resolved, astronomically dated, continuous composite of benthic foraminifer isotope records developed in the authors' laboratories reveals the key role that polar ice volume plays in the predictability of Cenozoic climate dynamics.
Abstract: Much of our understanding of Earth's past climate comes from the measurement of oxygen and carbon isotope variations in deep-sea benthic foraminifera. Yet, long intervals in existing records lack the temporal resolution and age control needed to thoroughly categorize climate states of the Cenozoic era and to study their dynamics. Here, we present a new, highly resolved, astronomically dated, continuous composite of benthic foraminifer isotope records developed in our laboratories. Four climate states-Hothouse, Warmhouse, Coolhouse, Icehouse-are identified on the basis of their distinctive response to astronomical forcing depending on greenhouse gas concentrations and polar ice sheet volume. Statistical analysis of the nonlinear behavior encoded in our record reveals the key role that polar ice volume plays in the predictability of Cenozoic climate dynamics.
655 citations
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Stockholm Resilience Centre1, Australian National University2, University of Tasmania3, Stockholm University4, Charles Darwin University5, International Union for Conservation of Nature and Natural Resources6, University of Montana7, National Autonomous University of Mexico8, The Pew Charitable Trusts9, McGill University10, Stellenbosch University11, University of Maryland, College Park12, University of Bern13, International Center for Tropical Agriculture14, Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation15, University of Wisconsin-Madison16, Royal Swedish Academy of Sciences17, Hobart Corporation18, Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research19, Pontifical Catholic University of Chile20, University of Sussex21, University College Cork22, Lüneburg University23, University of Arizona24, Azim Premji University25, University of the Witwatersrand26, Radboud University Nijmegen27, Utrecht University28
TL;DR: In this article, the authors propose a set of four general principles that underlie high-quality knowledge co-production for sustainability research, and offer practical guidance on how to engage in meaningful co-productive practices, and how to evaluate their quality and success.
Abstract: Research practice, funding agencies and global science organizations suggest that research aimed at addressing sustainability challenges is most effective when ‘co-produced’ by academics and non-academics. Co-production promises to address the complex nature of contemporary sustainability challenges better than more traditional scientific approaches. But definitions of knowledge co-production are diverse and often contradictory. We propose a set of four general principles that underlie high-quality knowledge co-production for sustainability research. Using these principles, we offer practical guidance on how to engage in meaningful co-productive practices, and how to evaluate their quality and success.
607 citations
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Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research1, University of Melbourne2, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis3, Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation4, ETH Zurich5, Earth System Research Laboratory6, École Polytechnique Fédérale de Lausanne7, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration8, Swiss Federal Laboratories for Materials Science and Technology9, Joint Global Change Research Institute10, Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency11, Utrecht University12, Georgia Institute of Technology13
TL;DR: In this paper, the authors provided the greenhouse gas concentrations for these SSP scenarios, using the reduced-complexity climate-carbon-cycle model MAGICC7.0, and extended historical, observationally based concentration data with SSP trajectory projections from 2015 to 2500 for 43 greenhouse gases with monthly and latitudinal resolution.
Abstract: . Anthropogenic increases in atmospheric greenhouse gas
concentrations are the main driver of current and future climate change. The
integrated assessment community has quantified anthropogenic emissions for
the shared socio-economic pathway (SSP) scenarios, each of which represents
a different future socio-economic projection and political environment.
Here, we provide the greenhouse gas concentrations for these SSP scenarios
– using the reduced-complexity climate–carbon-cycle model MAGICC7.0. We
extend historical, observationally based concentration data with SSP
concentration projections from 2015 to 2500 for 43 greenhouse gases with monthly and latitudinal resolution. CO2 concentrations by 2100 range
from 393 to 1135 ppm for the lowest (SSP1-1.9) and highest (SSP5-8.5)
emission scenarios, respectively. We also provide the concentration
extensions beyond 2100 based on assumptions regarding the trajectories of fossil
fuels and land use change emissions, net negative emissions, and the
fraction of non- CO2 emissions. By 2150, CO2 concentrations in the
lowest emission scenario are approximately 350 ppm and approximately plateau
at that level until 2500, whereas the highest fossil-fuel-driven scenario
projects CO2 concentrations of 1737 ppm and reaches concentrations
beyond 2000 ppm by 2250. We estimate that the share of CO2 in the total
radiative forcing contribution of all considered 43 long-lived greenhouse
gases increases from 66 % for the present day to roughly 68 % to 85 % by
the time of maximum forcing in the 21st century. For this estimation,
we updated simple radiative forcing parameterizations that reflect the Oslo
Line-By-Line model results. In comparison to the representative concentration pathways (RCPs), the five main SSPs
(SSP1-1.9, SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, SSP3-7.0, and SSP5-8.5) are more evenly spaced
and extend to lower 2100 radiative forcing and temperatures. Performing two
pairs of six-member historical ensembles with CESM1.2.2, we estimate the
effect on surface air temperatures of applying latitudinally and seasonally
resolved GHG concentrations. We find that the ensemble differences in the
March–April–May (MAM) season provide a regional warming in higher northern
latitudes of up to 0.4 K over the historical period, latitudinally averaged
of about 0.1 K, which we estimate to be comparable to the upper bound
( ∼5 % level) of natural variability. In comparison to the
comparatively straight line of the last 2000 years, the greenhouse gas
concentrations since the onset of the industrial period and this studies'
projections over the next 100 to 500 years unequivocally depict a
“hockey-stick” upwards shape. The SSP concentration time series derived in
this study provide a harmonized set of input assumptions for long-term
climate science analysis; they also provide an indication of the wide set of
futures that societal developments and policy implementations can lead to –
ranging from multiple degrees of future warming on the one side to
approximately 1.5 ∘ C warming on the other.
444 citations
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Massachusetts Institute of Technology1, University of Alaska Fairbanks2, Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution3, Alfred Wegener Institute for Polar and Marine Research4, University of Bremen5, California Institute of Technology6, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration7, Texas State University8, Pennsylvania State University9, Lund University10, VU University Amsterdam11, Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research12, Utah State University13, United States Naval Academy14, Environment Canada15, University of Cambridge16, University of Gothenburg17, Naval Postgraduate School18, University of California, Irvine19, University of Washington20, University College London21, Langley Research Center22, University of Wisconsin-Madison23, Finnish Meteorological Institute24, Leipzig University25, Columbia University26, Gwangju Institute of Science and Technology27
TL;DR: The Arctic has warmed more than twice as fast as the global average since the late twentieth century, a phenomenon known as Arctic amplification (AA), and progress has been made in understanding the mechanisms that link it to midlatitude weather variability as discussed by the authors.
Abstract: The Arctic has warmed more than twice as fast as the global average since the late twentieth century, a phenomenon known as Arctic amplification (AA). Recently, there have been considerable advances in understanding the physical contributions to AA, and progress has been made in understanding the mechanisms that link it to midlatitude weather variability. Observational studies overwhelmingly support that AA is contributing to winter continental cooling. Although some model experiments support the observational evidence, most modelling results show little connection between AA and severe midlatitude weather or suggest the export of excess heating from the Arctic to lower latitudes. Divergent conclusions between model and observational studies, and even intramodel studies, continue to obfuscate a clear understanding of how AA is influencing midlatitude weather.
423 citations
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Tsinghua University1, Centre national de la recherche scientifique2, Pennsylvania State University3, University of California, Irvine4, California Institute of Technology5, Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology6, Chinese Academy of Sciences7, Nagoya University8, Kunming University of Science and Technology9, University of Paris10, Paris Dauphine University11, National Institute for Environmental Studies12, Beijing Institute of Technology13, Shandong University14, Beijing Normal University15, Nanjing University16, Xiamen University17, University of California, Berkeley18, Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research19
TL;DR: The key result is an abrupt 8.8% decrease in global CO2 emissions in the first half of 2020 compared to the same period in 2019, larger than during previous economic downturns or World War II.
Abstract: The COVID-19 pandemic is impacting human activities, and in turn energy use and carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions. Here we present daily estimates of country-level CO2 emissions for different sectors based on near-real-time activity data. The key result is an abrupt 8.8% decrease in global CO2 emissions (-1551 Mt CO2) in the first half of 2020 compared to the same period in 2019. The magnitude of this decrease is larger than during previous economic downturns or World War II. The timing of emissions decreases corresponds to lockdown measures in each country. By July 1st, the pandemic's effects on global emissions diminished as lockdown restrictions relaxed and some economic activities restarted, especially in China and several European countries, but substantial differences persist between countries, with continuing emission declines in the U.S. where coronavirus cases are still increasing substantially.
405 citations
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27 Jan 2020TL;DR: In this paper, the authors explore the potential of mid-rise urban buildings designed with engineered timber to provide long-term storage of carbon and to avoid the carbon-intensive production of mineral-based construction materials.
Abstract: The anticipated growth and urbanization of the global population over the next several decades will create a vast demand for the construction of new housing, commercial buildings and accompanying infrastructure. The production of cement, steel and other building materials associated with this wave of construction will become a major source of greenhouse gas emissions. Might it be possible to transform this potential threat to the global climate system into a powerful means to mitigate climate change? To answer this provocative question, we explore the potential of mid-rise urban buildings designed with engineered timber to provide long-term storage of carbon and to avoid the carbon-intensive production of mineral-based construction materials. Increasing urbanization will lead to a significant expansion of buildings and related infrastructure, major sources of greenhouse gas emissions. This Perspective discusses the possibility of constructing mid-rise urban buildings with engineered timber for long-term carbon storage and carbon emissions reduction.
339 citations
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TL;DR: This work discusses and evaluates the potential of social tipping interventions (STIs) that can activate contagious processes of rapidly spreading technologies, behaviors, social norms, and structural reorganization within their functional domains that it describes as social tipping elements (STEs).
Abstract: Safely achieving the goals of the Paris Climate Agreement requires a worldwide transformation to carbon-neutral societies within the next 30 y. Accelerated technological progress and policy implementations are required to deliver emissions reductions at rates sufficiently fast to avoid crossing dangerous tipping points in the Earth's climate system. Here, we discuss and evaluate the potential of social tipping interventions (STIs) that can activate contagious processes of rapidly spreading technologies, behaviors, social norms, and structural reorganization within their functional domains that we refer to as social tipping elements (STEs). STEs are subdomains of the planetary socioeconomic system where the required disruptive change may take place and lead to a sufficiently fast reduction in anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions. The results are based on online expert elicitation, a subsequent expert workshop, and a literature review. The STIs that could trigger the tipping of STE subsystems include 1) removing fossil-fuel subsidies and incentivizing decentralized energy generation (STE1, energy production and storage systems), 2) building carbon-neutral cities (STE2, human settlements), 3) divesting from assets linked to fossil fuels (STE3, financial markets), 4) revealing the moral implications of fossil fuels (STE4, norms and value systems), 5) strengthening climate education and engagement (STE5, education system), and 6) disclosing information on greenhouse gas emissions (STE6, information feedbacks). Our research reveals important areas of focus for larger-scale empirical and modeling efforts to better understand the potentials of harnessing social tipping dynamics for climate change mitigation.
335 citations
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International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis1, Environmental Change Institute2, BirdLife International3, University of Cambridge4, ETH Zurich5, Indian Institutes of Technology6, Natural History Museum7, Bioversity International8, Sapienza University of Rome9, Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation10, Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency11, Zoological Society of London12, World Conservation Monitoring Centre13, Ritsumeikan University14, National Institute for Environmental Studies15, Radboud University Nijmegen16, Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research17, University College London18, Imperial College London19, Wageningen University and Research Centre20, Agricultural & Applied Economics Association21, Stockholm Resilience Centre22, Kyoto University23, Humboldt University of Berlin24, Leipzig University25, International Institute of Minnesota26, Pontifical Catholic University of Rio de Janeiro27, Utrecht University28, Wildlife Conservation Society29, University of Queensland30
TL;DR: In this paper, the authors used an ensemble of land-use and biodiversity models to assess whether and how humans can reverse the declines in terrestrial biodiversity caused by habitat conversion, which is a major threat to biodiversity.
Abstract: Increased efforts are required to prevent further losses to terrestrial biodiversity and the ecosystem services that it provides1,2. Ambitious targets have been proposed, such as reversing the declining trends in biodiversity3; however, just feeding the growing human population will make this a challenge4. Here we use an ensemble of land-use and biodiversity models to assess whether—and how—humanity can reverse the declines in terrestrial biodiversity caused by habitat conversion, which is a major threat to biodiversity5. We show that immediate efforts, consistent with the broader sustainability agenda but of unprecedented ambition and coordination, could enable the provision of food for the growing human population while reversing the global terrestrial biodiversity trends caused by habitat conversion. If we decide to increase the extent of land under conservation management, restore degraded land and generalize landscape-level conservation planning, biodiversity trends from habitat conversion could become positive by the mid-twenty-first century on average across models (confidence interval, 2042–2061), but this was not the case for all models. Food prices could increase and, on average across models, almost half (confidence interval, 34–50%) of the future biodiversity losses could not be avoided. However, additionally tackling the drivers of land-use change could avoid conflict with affordable food provision and reduces the environmental effects of the food-provision system. Through further sustainable intensification and trade, reduced food waste and more plant-based human diets, more than two thirds of future biodiversity losses are avoided and the biodiversity trends from habitat conversion are reversed by 2050 for almost all of the models. Although limiting further loss will remain challenging in several biodiversity-rich regions, and other threats—such as climate change—must be addressed to truly reverse the declines in biodiversity, our results show that ambitious conservation efforts and food system transformation are central to an effective post-2020 biodiversity strategy. To promote the recovery of the currently declining global trends in terrestrial biodiversity, increases in both the extent of land under conservation management and the sustainability of the global food system from farm to fork are required.
316 citations
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University of Maryland, College Park1, University of New Hampshire2, Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research3, Joint Global Change Research Institute4, Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency5, Durham University6, National Institute for Environmental Studies7, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis8, University of Bern9, Max Planck Society10, University of Hong Kong11, National Center for Atmospheric Research12, University of Copenhagen13, Ludwig Maximilian University of Munich14, Goddard Space Flight Center15, Princeton University16, Oak Ridge National Laboratory17, Food and Agriculture Organization18, University of Maryland Center for Environmental Science19
TL;DR: The Land-Use Harmonization 2 (LUH2) project is presented, which smoothly connects updated historical reconstructions of land use with eight new future projections in the format required for ESMs to enable new and improved estimates of the combined effects of landUse on the global carbon–climate system.
Abstract: . Human land-use activities have resulted in large changes to the biogeochemical and biophysical properties of the Earth surface, with consequences for climate and other ecosystem services. In the future, land-use activities are likely to expand and/or intensify further to meet growing demands for food, fiber, and energy. As part of the World Climate Research Program Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6), the international community is developing the next generation of advanced Earth System Models (ESMs) to estimate the combined effects of human activities (e.g. land use and fossil fuel emissions) on the carbon-climate system. A new set of historical data based on the History of the Global Environment database (HYDE), and multiple alternative scenarios of the future (2015–2100) from Integrated Assessment Model (IAM) teams, are required as input for these models. Here we present results from the Land-use Harmonization 2 (LUH2) project, with the goal to smoothly connect updated historical reconstructions of land-use with new future projections in the format required for ESMs. The harmonization strategy estimates the fractional land-use patterns, underlying land-use transitions, key agricultural management information, and resulting secondary lands annually, while minimizing the differences between the end of the historical reconstruction and IAM initial conditions and preserving changes depicted by the IAMs in the future. The new approach builds off a similar effort from CMIP5, and is now provided at higher resolution (0.25 × 0.25 degree), over a longer time domain (850–2100, with extensions to 2300), with more detail (including multiple crop and pasture types and associated management practices), using more input datasets (including Landsat remote sensing data), updated algorithms (wood harvest and shifting cultivation), and is assessed via a new diagnostic package. The new LUH2 products contain > 50 times the information content of the datasets used in CMIP5, and are designed to enable new and improved estimates of the combined effects of land-use on the global carbon-climate system.
316 citations
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TL;DR: This multiregional input-output analysis evaluated the contribution of health-care sectors in driving environmental damage that in turn puts human health at risk and quantified the direct and indirect supply-chain environmental damage driven by the demand for health care.
243 citations
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20 Jan 2020
TL;DR: In this paper, a process-detailed, spatially explicit representation of four interlinked planetary boundaries (biosphere integrity, land-system change, freshwater use, nitrogen flows) and agricultural systems in an internally consistent model framework is presented.
Abstract: Global agriculture puts heavy pressure on planetary boundaries, posing the challenge to achieve future food security without compromising Earth system resilience. On the basis of process-detailed, spatially explicit representation of four interlinked planetary boundaries (biosphere integrity, land-system change, freshwater use, nitrogen flows) and agricultural systems in an internally consistent model framework, we here show that almost half of current global food production depends on planetary boundary transgressions. Hotspot regions, mainly in Asia, even face simultaneous transgression of multiple underlying local boundaries. If these boundaries were strictly respected, the present food system could provide a balanced diet (2,355 kcal per capita per day) for 3.4 billion people only. However, as we also demonstrate, transformation towards more sustainable production and consumption patterns could support 10.2 billion people within the planetary boundaries analysed. Key prerequisites are spatially redistributed cropland, improved water–nutrient management, food waste reduction and dietary changes. Agriculture transforms the Earth and risks crossing thresholds for a healthy planet. This study finds almost half of current food production crosses such boundaries, as for freshwater use, but that transformation towards more sustainable production and consumption could support 10.2 billion people.
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Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation1, International Livestock Research Institute2, Chatham House3, Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research4, University of Oslo5, Deakin University6, University of Copenhagen7, International Center for Tropical Agriculture8, University of Oxford9, Wageningen University and Research Centre10, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis11, University of Minnesota12, Stanford University13, University of Queensland14, University of Potsdam15, University of Aberdeen16, Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency17, CGIAR18, Utrecht University19
TL;DR: In this article, the authors identify technologies, assess their readiness and propose eight action points that could accelerate the transition towards a more sustainable food system and argue that the speed of innovation could be significantly increased with the appropriate incentives, regulations and social licence.
Abstract: Future technologies and systemic innovation are critical for the profound transformation the food system needs. These innovations range from food production, land use and emissions, all the way to improved diets and waste management. Here, we identify these technologies, assess their readiness and propose eight action points that could accelerate the transition towards a more sustainable food system. We argue that the speed of innovation could be significantly increased with the appropriate incentives, regulations and social licence. These, in turn, require constructive stakeholder dialogue and clear transition pathways.
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Utrecht University1, Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency2, Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research3, Wageningen University and Research Centre4, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis5, Technical University of Berlin6, European Institute7, Kyoto University8, National Technical University of Athens9, Federal University of Rio de Janeiro10, Imperial College London11, Tsinghua University12, Joint Global Change Research Institute13, National Development and Reform Commission14, The Energy and Resources Institute15, National Research University – Higher School of Economics16, National Institute for Environmental Studies17, Indian Institute of Management Ahmedabad18
TL;DR: It is shown that implementation of current policies leaves a median emission gap of 22.4 to 28.2 GtCO 2 eq by 2030 with the optimal pathways to implement the well below 2 °C and 1.5C Paris goals, which shows that all countries would need to accelerate the implementation of policies for renewable technologies, while efficiency improvements are especially important in emerging countries and fossil-fuel-dependent countries.
Abstract: Many countries have implemented national climate policies to accomplish pledged Nationally Determined Contributions and to contribute to the temperature objectives of the Paris Agreement on climate change. In 2023, the global stocktake will assess the combined effort of countries. Here, based on a public policy database and a multi-model scenario analysis, we show that implementation of current policies leaves a median emission gap of 22.4 to 28.2 GtCO2eq by 2030 with the optimal pathways to implement the well below 2 °C and 1.5 °C Paris goals. If Nationally Determined Contributions would be fully implemented, this gap would be reduced by a third. Interestingly, the countries evaluated were found to not achieve their pledged contributions with implemented policies (implementation gap), or to have an ambition gap with optimal pathways towards well below 2 °C. This shows that all countries would need to accelerate the implementation of policies for renewable technologies, while efficiency improvements are especially important in emerging countries and fossil-fuel-dependent countries.
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Joint Global Change Research Institute1, University of Denver2, Finnish Environment Institute3, University of Washington4, Stockholm Environment Institute5, Wageningen University and Research Centre6, Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research7, RAND Corporation8, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis9, Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency10, Utrecht University11, National Autonomous University of Mexico12, Ritsumeikan University13, German Development Institute14, Calcutta Institute of Engineering and Management15
TL;DR: It is concluded that the SSP–RCP scenario framework has been widely adopted across research communities and is largely meeting immediate needs, however, some mixed successes and a changing policy and research landscape present key challenges.
Abstract: Long-term global scenarios have underpinned research and assessment of global environmental change for four decades. Over the past ten years, the climate change research community has developed a scenario framework combining alternative futures of climate and society to facilitate integrated research and consistent assessment to inform policy. Here we assess how well this framework is working and what challenges it faces. We synthesize insights from scenario-based literature, community discussions and recent experience in assessments, concluding that the framework has been widely adopted across research communities and is largely meeting immediate needs. However, some mixed successes and a changing policy and research landscape present key challenges, and we recommend several new directions for the development and use of this framework.
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Goddard Institute for Space Studies1, Columbia University2, University of Pretoria3, Empresa Brasileira de Pesquisa Agropecuária4, Chatham House5, University of Leeds6, Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation7, College of Micronesia-FSM8, University of Dar es Salaam9, Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research10, University of Vic11, International Maize and Wheat Improvement Center12, Federal University of Rio de Janeiro13, Imperial College London14
TL;DR: A food system framework as mentioned in this paper breaks down entrenched sectoral categories and existing adaptation and mitigation silos, presenting novel ways of assessing and enabling integrated climate change solutions from production to consumption.
Abstract: A food system framework breaks down entrenched sectoral categories and existing adaptation and mitigation silos, presenting novel ways of assessing and enabling integrated climate change solutions from production to consumption.
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Australian National University1, Stockholm Resilience Centre2, Stockholm University3, Wageningen University and Research Centre4, University of Wisconsin-Madison5, Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research6, Humboldt University of Berlin7, Stockholm Environment Institute8, University College London9, University of Copenhagen10
TL;DR: In this paper, the authors surveyed and provisionally quantified interactions between the Earth system processes represented by the planetary boundaries and investigated their consequences for sustainability governance, finding that the resulting cascades and feedbacks predominantly amplify human impacts and shrink the safe operating space for future human impacts.
Abstract: The planetary boundary framework presents a ‘planetary dashboard’ of humanity’s globally aggregated performance on a set of environmental issues that endanger the Earth system’s capacity to support humanity. While this framework has been highly influential, a critical shortcoming for its application in sustainability governance is that it currently fails to represent how impacts related to one of the planetary boundaries affect the status of other planetary boundaries. Here, we surveyed and provisionally quantified interactions between the Earth system processes represented by the planetary boundaries and investigated their consequences for sustainability governance. We identified a dense network of interactions between the planetary boundaries. The resulting cascades and feedbacks predominantly amplify human impacts on the Earth system and thereby shrink the safe operating space for future human impacts on the Earth system. Our results show that an integrated understanding of Earth system dynamics is critical to navigating towards a sustainable future.
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California Institute of Technology1, Goddard Space Flight Center2, University of Bristol3, Université libre de Bruxelles4, Utrecht University5, National Center for Atmospheric Research6, University of Tokyo7, Université Paris-Saclay8, Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research9, Los Alamos National Laboratory10, Australian Antarctic Division11, University of Lapland12, Victoria University of Wellington13, University of Reading14, Met Office15, Hokkaido University16, University of Tromsø17, Norwegian Polar Institute18, Alfred Wegener Institute for Polar and Marine Research19, University of Bremen20, Vrije Universiteit Brussel21, University of Grenoble22, GNS Science23, University of California, Irvine24, University of Leeds25, University of California, San Diego26, Pennsylvania State University27, University of Potsdam28, University of Tasmania29, CSC – IT Center for Science30
TL;DR: In this paper, the authors present results from ice flow model simulations from 13 international groups focusing on the evolution of the Antarctic ice sheet during the period 2015-2100 as part of the Ice Sheet Model Comparison for CMIP6 (ISMIP6).
Abstract: . Ice flow models of the Antarctic ice sheet are commonly used to simulate its future evolution in
response to different climate scenarios and assess the mass loss that would contribute to
future sea level rise. However, there is currently no consensus on estimates of the future mass
balance of the ice sheet, primarily because of differences in the representation of physical
processes, forcings employed and initial states of ice sheet models. This study presents
results from ice flow model simulations from 13 international groups focusing on the evolution
of the Antarctic ice sheet during the period 2015–2100 as part of the Ice Sheet Model
Intercomparison for CMIP6 (ISMIP6). They are forced with outputs from a subset of models from the
Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5), representative of the spread in climate
model results. Simulations of the Antarctic ice sheet contribution to sea level rise in response
to increased warming during this period varies between −7.8 and 30.0 cm of sea level equivalent
(SLE) under Representative Concentration
Pathway (RCP) 8.5 scenario forcing. These numbers are relative to a control experiment with
constant climate conditions and should therefore be added to the mass loss contribution under
climate conditions similar to present-day conditions over the same period. The simulated evolution of the
West Antarctic ice sheet varies widely among models, with an overall mass loss, up to 18.0 cm SLE, in response to changes in oceanic conditions. East Antarctica mass change varies between −6.1 and
8.3 cm SLE in the simulations, with a significant increase in surface mass balance outweighing
the increased ice discharge under most RCP 8.5 scenario forcings. The inclusion of ice shelf
collapse, here assumed to be caused by large amounts of liquid water ponding at the surface of
ice shelves, yields an additional simulated mass loss of 28 mm compared to simulations without ice
shelf collapse. The largest sources of uncertainty come from the climate forcing, the ocean-induced melt rates, the
calibration of these melt rates based on oceanic conditions taken outside of ice shelf cavities
and the ice sheet dynamic response to these oceanic changes. Results under RCP 2.6 scenario based
on two CMIP5 climate models show an additional mass loss of 0 and 3 cm of SLE on average compared to
simulations done under present-day conditions for the two CMIP5 forcings used and display
limited mass gain in East Antarctica.
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Tsinghua University1, Centre national de la recherche scientifique2, Pennsylvania State University3, University of California, Irvine4, California Institute of Technology5, Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology6, Chinese Academy of Sciences7, Nagoya University8, Kunming University of Science and Technology9, University of Paris10, Paris Dauphine University11, National Institute for Environmental Studies12, Beijing Institute of Technology13, Shandong University14, Beijing Normal University15, Nanjing University16, Xiamen University17, University of California, Berkeley18, Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research19
TL;DR: A Correction to this paper has been published: https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-020-20254-5.
Abstract: Author(s): Liu, Zhu; Ciais, Philippe; Deng, Zhu; Lei, Ruixue; Davis, Steven J; Feng, Sha; Zheng, Bo; Cui, Duo; Dou, Xinyu; Zhu, Biqing; Guo, Rui; Ke, Piyu; Sun, Taochun; Lu, Chenxi; He, Pan; Wang, Yuan; Yue, Xu; Wang, Yilong; Lei, Yadong; Zhou, Hao; Cai, Zhaonan; Wu, Yuhui; Guo, Runtao; Han, Tingxuan; Xue, Jinjun; Boucher, Olivier; Boucher, Eulalie; Chevallier, Frederic; Tanaka, Katsumasa; Wei, Yiming; Zhong, Haiwang; Kang, Chongqing; Zhang, Ning; Chen, Bin; Xi, Fengming; Liu, Miaomiao; Breon, Francois-Marie; Lu, Yonglong; Zhang, Qiang; Guan, Dabo; Gong, Peng; Kammen, Daniel M; He, Kebin; Schellnhuber, Hans Joachim | Abstract: A Correction to this paper has been published: https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-020-20254-5.
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TL;DR: The authors used compositional Bayesian regression to produce the first estimates of past and future (1965-2100) waste generation disaggregated by composition and treatment, along with resultant environmental impacts, for every country.
Abstract: Global municipal waste production causes multiple environmental impacts, including greenhouse gas emissions, ocean plastic accumulation, and nitrogen pollution. However, estimates of both past and future development of waste and pollution are scarce. We apply compositional Bayesian regression to produce the first estimates of past and future (1965-2100) waste generation disaggregated by composition and treatment, along with resultant environmental impacts, for every country. We find that total wastes grow at declining speed with economic development, and that global waste generation has increased from 635 Mt in 1965 to 1999 Mt in 2015 and reaches 3539 Mt by 2050 (median values, middle-of-the-road scenario). From 2015 to 2050, the global share of organic waste declines from 47% to 39%, while all other waste type shares increase, especially paper. The share of waste treated in dumps declines from 28% to 18%, and more sustainable recycling, composting, and energy recovery treatments increase. Despite these increases, we estimate environmental loads to continue increasing in the future, although yearly plastic waste input into the oceans has reached a peak. Waste production does not appear to follow the environmental Kuznets curve, and current projections do not meet UN SDGs for waste reduction. Our study shows that a continuation of current trends and improvements is insufficient to reduce pressures on natural systems and achieve a circular economy. Relative to 2015, the amount of recycled waste would need to increase from 363 Mt to 740 Mt by 2030 to begin reducing unsustainable waste generation, compared to 519 Mt currently projected.
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13 Jan 2020
TL;DR: The Earth System Science (ESS) is a rapidly emerging transdisciplinary endeavour aimed at understanding the structure and functioning of the Earth as a complex, adaptive system as mentioned in this paper, and it has produced new concepts and frameworks central to the global change discourse, including the Anthropocene, tipping elements and planetary boundaries.
Abstract: Earth System Science (ESS) is a rapidly emerging transdisciplinary endeavour aimed at understanding the structure and functioning of the Earth as a complex, adaptive system. Here, we discuss the emergence and evolution of ESS, outlining the importance of these developments in advancing our understanding of global change. Inspired by early work on biosphere–geosphere interactions and by novel perspectives such as the Gaia hypothesis, ESS emerged in the 1980s following demands for a new ‘science of the Earth’. The International Geosphere-Biosphere Programme soon followed, leading to an unprecedented level of international commitment and disciplinary integration. ESS has produced new concepts and frameworks central to the global-change discourse, including the Anthropocene, tipping elements and planetary boundaries. Moving forward, the grand challenge for ESS is to achieve a deep integration of biophysical processes and human dynamics to build a truly unified understanding of the Earth System. Earth System Science (ESS) has emerged as a powerful tool to investigate and understand global change. This Perspective outlines the history of ESS and advocates for the full integration of human and biogeophysical dynamics necessary to build a truly unified ESS effort.
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01 Jan 2020TL;DR: Without a great food system transformation, the world will fail to deliver both on the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals and the Paris Climate Agreement as mentioned in this paper, and there are five grand challenges to be faced, by science and society, to effect that transformation.
Abstract: Without a great food system transformation, the world will fail to deliver both on the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals and the Paris Climate Agreement. There are five grand challenges to be faced, by science and society, to effect that transformation.
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TL;DR: A reduced form approach is proposed that is able to estimate UHI intensities based only on the number and location of urban sites as well as their distance, which can serve as a UHI rule of thumb for the comparison of urban development scenarios.
Abstract: The canopy layer urban heat island (UHI) effect, as manifested by elevated near-surface air temperatures in urban areas, exposes urban dwellers to additional heat stress in many cities, specially during heat waves. We simulate the urban climate of various generated cities under the same weather conditions. For mono-centric cities, we propose a linear combination of logarithmic city area and logarithmic gross building volume, which also captures the influence of building density. By studying various city shapes, we generalise and propose a reduced form to estimate UHI intensities based only on the structure of urban sites, as well as their relative distances. We conclude that in addition to the size, the UHI intensity of a city is directly related to the density and an amplifying effect that urban sites have on each other. Our approach can serve as a UHI rule of thumb for the comparison of urban development scenarios. How UHI intensity responds to variations of urban structure is unclear. Here the authors proposed a reduced form approach that is able to estimate UHI intensities based only on the number and location of urban sites as well as their distance.
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TL;DR: In this paper, a range of ecosystems contain irrecoverable carbon that is vulnerable to release upon land use conversion and, once lost, is not recoverable on timescales relevant to avoiding dangerous climate impacts.
Abstract: Avoiding catastrophic climate change requires rapid decarbonization and improved ecosystem stewardship. To achieve the latter, ecosystems should be prioritized by responsiveness to direct, localized action and the magnitude and recoverability of their carbon stores. Here, we show that a range of ecosystems contain ‘irrecoverable carbon’ that is vulnerable to release upon land use conversion and, once lost, is not recoverable on timescales relevant to avoiding dangerous climate impacts. Globally, ecosystems highly affected by human land-use decisions contain at least 260 Gt of irrecoverable carbon, with particularly high densities in peatlands, mangroves, old-growth forests and marshes. To achieve climate goals, we must safeguard these irrecoverable carbon pools through an expanded set of policy and finance strategies. In order to limit warming and the most severe consequences of climate change, net global carbon emissions must reach zero by 2050. Many ecosystems contain carbon that would be irrecoverable on this timescale if lost and must be protected to meet climate goals.
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TL;DR: This article showed that Rossby waves with wavenumbers 5 and 7 have a preferred phase position and constitute recurrent atmospheric circulation patterns in summer, which can induce simultaneous heat extremes in specific regions.
Abstract: In an interconnected world, simultaneous extreme weather events in distant regions could potentially impose high-end risks for societies1,2. In the mid-latitudes, circumglobal Rossby waves are associated with a strongly meandering jet stream and might cause simultaneous heatwaves and floods across the northern hemisphere3–6. For example, in the summer of 2018, several heat and rainfall extremes occurred near-simultaneously7. Here we show that Rossby waves with wavenumbers 5 and 7 have a preferred phase position and constitute recurrent atmospheric circulation patterns in summer. Those patterns can induce simultaneous heat extremes in specific regions: Central North America, Eastern Europe and Eastern Asia for wave 5, and Western Central North America, Western Europe and Western Asia for wave 7. The probability of simultaneous heat extremes in these regions increases by a factor of up to 20 for the most severe heat events when either of these two waves dominate the circulation. Two or more weeks per summer spent in the wave-5 or wave-7 regime are associated with 4% reductions in crop production when averaged across the affected regions, with regional decreases of up to 11%. As these regions are important for global food production, the identified teleconnections have the potential to fuel multiple harvest failures, posing risks to global food security8. A large-scale meandering in the jet stream can cause simultaneous heat extremes in distant regions. When Rossby waves with wavenumbers 5 and 7 dominate circulation, there is an increased risk of heat extremes across major food-producing regions, raising the potential of multiple crop failures.
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TL;DR: The Watch Forcing Data (WFD) dataset as discussed by the authors has been used to generate the WFDE5 dataset for surface meteorological variables from the ERA5 reanalysis, which has a higher temporal resolution (hourly) compared to WFD (3-hourly).
Abstract: . The WFDE5 dataset has been generated using the WATCH Forcing Data (WFD) methodology applied to surface meteorological variables from the ERA5 reanalysis. The WFDEI dataset had previously been generated by applying the WFD methodology to ERA-Interim. The WFDE5 is provided at 0.5 ∘ spatial resolution but has higher temporal resolution (hourly) compared to WFDEI (3-hourly). It also has higher spatial variability since it was generated by aggregation of the higher-resolution ERA5 rather than by interpolation of the lower-resolution ERA-Interim data. Evaluation against meteorological observations at 13 globally distributed FLUXNET2015 sites shows that, on average, WFDE5 has lower mean absolute error and higher correlation than WFDEI for all variables. Bias-adjusted monthly precipitation totals of WFDE5 result in more plausible global hydrological water balance components when analysed in an uncalibrated hydrological model (WaterGAP) than with the use of raw ERA5 data for model forcing. The dataset, which can be downloaded from https://doi.org/10.24381/cds.20d54e34 ( C3S , 2020 b ) , is distributed by the Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S) through its Climate Data Store (CDS, C3S , 2020 a ) and currently spans from the start of January 1979 to the end of 2018. The dataset has been produced using a number of CDS Toolbox applications, whose source code is available with the data – allowing users to regenerate part of the dataset or apply the same approach to other data. Future updates are expected spanning from 1950 to the most recent year. A sample of the complete dataset, which covers the whole of the year 2016, is accessible without registration to the CDS at https://doi.org/10.21957/935p-cj60 ( Cucchi et al. , 2020 ) .
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Delft University of Technology1, Utrecht University2, Wageningen University and Research Centre3, Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency4, City University of New York5, National Renewable Energy Laboratory6, Seoul National University7, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis8, Central Maine Community College9, Ca' Foscari University of Venice10, Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research11, Joint Global Change Research Institute12, University College Cork13, University College London14, Federal University of Rio de Janeiro15, National Institute for Environmental Studies16, Kyoto University17, University of Maryland, College Park18
TL;DR: In this paper, the authors analyse results of 220 studies projecting climate impacts on energy systems globally and at the regional scale, and propose a consistent multi-model assessment framework to support regional-to-global-scale energy planning.
Abstract: Although our knowledge of climate change impacts on energy systems has increased substantially over the past few decades, there remains a lack of comprehensive overview of impacts across spatial scales. Here, we analyse results of 220 studies projecting climate impacts on energy systems globally and at the regional scale. Globally, a potential increase in cooling demand and decrease in heating demand can be anticipated, in contrast to slight decreases in hydropower and thermal energy capacity. Impacts at the regional scale are more mixed and relatively uncertain across regions, but strongest impacts are reported for South Asia and Latin America. Our assessment shows that climate impacts on energy systems at regional and global scales are uncertain due partly to the wide range of methods and non-harmonized datasets used. For a comprehensive assessment of climate impacts on energy, we propose a consistent multi-model assessment framework to support regional-to-global-scale energy planning.
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TL;DR: This research addresses policies related to energy innovation and the role of finance in the energy transition and climate finance more generally.
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TL;DR: The authors employ a meta-analysis approach to synthesize the evidence from 30 country-level studies that estimate the effect of slow-and rapid-onset events on migration worldwide, finding that environmental hazards affect migration, although with contextual variation.
Abstract: The impact of climate change on migration has gained both academic and public interest in recent years. Here we employ a meta-analysis approach to synthesize the evidence from 30 country-level studies that estimate the effect of slow- and rapid-onset events on migration worldwide. Most studies find that environmental hazards affect migration, although with contextual variation. Migration is primarily internal or to low- and middle-income countries. The strongest relationship is found in studies with a large share of countries outside the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development, particularly from Latin America and the Caribbean and sub-Saharan Africa, and in studies of middle-income and agriculturally dependent countries. Income and conflict moderate and partly explain the relationship between environmental change and migration. Combining our estimates for differential migration responses with the observed environmental change in these countries in recent decades illustrates how the meta-analytic results can provide useful insights for the identification of potential hotspots of environmental migration. Using a meta-analysis approach, the authors find robust evidence that environmental factors play a role in explaining migration patterns across countries and over time, but the size of the effects depend on the economic and sociopolitical context, and the environmental factors considered.
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Bjerknes Centre for Climate Research1, Utrecht University2, Université libre de Bruxelles3, Goddard Space Flight Center4, University of Bristol5, California Institute of Technology6, National Center for Atmospheric Research7, University of Reading8, Met Office9, University of Tokyo10, University of Leeds11, Université Paris-Saclay12, Lamont–Doherty Earth Observatory13, Goddard Institute for Space Studies14, University of Alaska Fairbanks15, Los Alamos National Laboratory16, Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research17, Hokkaido University18, University of California, Irvine19, King's College London20, University of Liège21, Victoria University of Wellington22, University of Bremen23, Alfred Wegener Institute for Polar and Marine Research24, GNS Science25, University of Maryland, College Park26, University of Liverpool27, University of St Andrews28, Scripps Institution of Oceanography29, Memorial University of Newfoundland30
TL;DR: In this article, the authors used a large ensemble of Greenland ice sheet models forced by output from a representative subset of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) global climate models to project ice sheet changes and sea-level rise contributions over the 21st century.
Abstract: . The Greenland ice sheet is one of the largest contributors to global mean
sea-level rise today and is expected to continue to lose mass as the Arctic
continues to warm. The two predominant mass loss mechanisms are increased
surface meltwater run-off and mass loss associated with the retreat of
marine-terminating outlet glaciers. In this paper we use a large ensemble of
Greenland ice sheet models forced by output from a representative subset of
the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) global climate models to project ice sheet changes and sea-level rise
contributions over the 21st century. The simulations are part of the
Ice Sheet Model Intercomparison Project for CMIP6 (ISMIP6). We estimate the
sea-level contribution together with uncertainties due to future climate
forcing, ice sheet model formulations and ocean forcing for the two
greenhouse gas concentration scenarios RCP8.5 and RCP2.6. The results
indicate that the Greenland ice sheet will continue to lose mass in both
scenarios until 2100, with contributions of 90±50 and 32±17 mm to sea-level rise for RCP8.5 and RCP2.6, respectively. The largest
mass loss is expected from the south-west of Greenland, which is governed by
surface mass balance changes, continuing what is already observed today.
Because the contributions are calculated against an unforced control
experiment, these numbers do not include any committed mass loss, i.e. mass
loss that would occur over the coming century if the climate forcing
remained constant. Under RCP8.5 forcing, ice sheet model uncertainty
explains an ensemble spread of 40 mm, while climate model uncertainty and
ocean forcing uncertainty account for a spread of 36 and 19 mm,
respectively. Apart from those formally derived uncertainty ranges, the
largest gap in our knowledge is about the physical understanding and
implementation of the calving process, i.e. the interaction of the ice sheet
with the ocean.
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University of London1, Oeschger Centre for Climate Change Research2, University of Bern3, Fudan University4, Monash University5, Anhui Medical University6, Shanghai Jiao Tong University7, Queensland University of Technology8, University of Ottawa9, Health Canada10, Academy of Sciences of the Czech Republic11, Czech University of Life Sciences Prague12, University of Tartu13, Pablo de Olavide University14, Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research15, National and Kapodistrian University of Athens16, King's College London17, University of Tokyo18, University of Tsukuba19, Nagasaki University20, Instituto Nacional de Saúde Dr. Ricardo Jorge21, University of Porto22, Emory University23, Council for Scientific and Industrial Research24, North-West University25, University of Pretoria26, Seoul National University27, University of Valencia28, Umeå University29, Swiss Tropical and Public Health Institute30, University of Basel31, National Taiwan University32, Harvard University33, Yale University34
TL;DR: Results suggest that ozone related mortality could be potentially reduced under stricter air quality standards, and have relevance for the implementation of efficient clean air interventions and mitigation strategies designed within national and international climate policies.
Abstract: OBJECTIVE: To assess short term mortality risks and excess mortality associated with exposure to ozone in several cities worldwide.DESIGN: Two stage time series analysis.SETTING: 406 cities in 20 c ...